This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.
Tim asks:
I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.
Ben asks:
After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?
These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.
The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them. By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.
Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin. Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career. Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain. While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.
I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does. Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles. The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.
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Orioles, Tigers, Trades…oh my!
Is that you, George?
“not sure if Duran is a 4.0 War Player” What?
In 2024, Duran had a 6.8 FWar
In 2025, Duran had a 3.9 FWar, even though he played out position in LF, causing a negative value to his WAR.
If he returns to CF in another town, how is he not a 4.0 War player moving forward?
In 4 of Duran’s 5 seasons he was well below average in CF. Most teams would be looking to attain him as a corner OF.
The article says Milwaukee would use him in CF. You wouldnt trade him to most teams, just one that needs a CF.
I usually agree with you, but Duran is 5x as good in CF as he is in LF. It’s one of the reasons he has to go. His judgement is ‘okay’ in CF, and a weak arm, but he can out-run a lot of mistakes. His judgement is worse in LF because you have slightly less reaction time, and half the speed attribute.
If it wasn’t for Ceddanne being about as good as it gets, I’d be real happy with Duran in CF.
How does his fielding get worse at the easier LF position?
Stymeed Thats what makes 2024 look a bit like an outlier. Still would love to see him on Tigers if return wasnt extreme.
@Reggie If MIL were to make an offer for him for CF, they would not offer more due to position he”d play for them. He could be the future bullpen catcher for MIL and BOS would not take less.
Tigers:
“He could be the future bullpen catcher for MIL . . .”
Would Milwaukee offer just as much for a bullpen catcher as they would for a CF? No.
Red Sox will trade him to the team with the best offer. So, because Duran has the most value in CF, a team that needs a CF will offer the most. Angels, A’s, Giants, Indians, Phillies, Brewers, Yankees and Dodgers all could use a defensive upgrade in CF. (Dodgers because Pages isnt a good hitter, not for defense).
@Reggie You are trying to word it in a way that increases his value. Thats just not reality, there are a select few people who become MLB GMs or their top staff, they have a good idea of market value of players and for the most part it carries across the league, it is their business its what they do. Rewording it to change the narrative simply isn’t reality.
What am I “rewording”. What are you talking about? You tried saying I was saying the Red Sox would ONLY trade to a team that would use him in CF. I wasn’t, Im not “rewording” anything. You want a ‘gotcha moment’ or something. Its not, I know what I meant.
I watch Duran all the time as a Red Sox fan. I know, what I see. Duran is not comfortable in the corner OF positions. Scouts will know this, as well. They will see his value in CF and a team that needs a CF will trade for him. So as I said before, “The Red Sox will trade him to a team that needs a CF” because they will be the teams offering the most.
Regardless if BOS only trades him to a team needing a CF his value is what it is. What the team that receives him does thereafter is irrelevant.
As for recording, you are trying to mold it as though if hes traded under a “CF” label hes suddenly more valuable. He is traded under his name and the value he carries a teams needs doesn’t change that.
I didnt say “only”. You keep wanting to put that in my words. ITS NOT.
1) Red Sox will trade him to any team, to play any position.
2) Red Sox will take the very best offer
3) The team that makes the best offer will be a team with a need in CF, because their scouting dept will tell them that the where he plays best.
Ive watched a lot of Duran play, he is much more comfortable in CF than anywhere else.
Wow, I wrote 3 multi-paragraph comments, because you want to keep adding “only”, in your head, to what I said.
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I say, if he’s traded, it will be to a team that needs a CF
You say he will most likely play a corner position
We’ll see.
Hos value is what it is, you are absolutely speculating on what or how yeams will evaluate and determine his value.
Im actually a Duran fan. But if we are being honest here he is a horrible route runner. Hes done wonders covering up for some of his route running with speed and athleticism. But speed generally does not age well and MLB teams are well aware of that. But you can feel free trying to sell yourself as tho its going to increase his value…
You are now babbling nonsense. I never said “value” “evalute” or “determine value”. You seem to be just making stuff up.
I say he will go to a team who need a CF, you say he’s going to play LF. We’ll see. Go away now.
I did not use parenthesis did I?? When you are talking about what teams are going to offer in a trade the value of said players being trade is absolutely rele amt as is the way teams evaluate said talent.
Im not say9ng I know where he is going but just because a team plans to use him in CF that in no way increases his value. MIL for example could make an offer hoping to use him om CF and they very well could give the weakest offer, we dont know what they are willing to part with.
Lol, those are QUOTE, these are parenthesis (). Are you all right?
I used quotes because those are exact words you say, that Im saying. And your doing it again in this comment: “what teams are going to offer” “trade value” — All I was talking about was whether or not he’ll be a 4.0 WAR guy moving into the future.
Also— I intentionally added the “you say he’s going to play LF” just to see how you felt about people putting words in your mouth and now you say “Im not saying . .. ” ===Too funny. Sucks when people are having a conversation and they just keep putting words in your mouth, dont it?
Parenthesis are used on quotes you simpleton. I unlike you did not put words in your mouth. I described what you had daid for what it truly is…
So you didnt put words in my mouth, you used other words to describe my words. What a strange way to put it.
Why wouldnt you just use my own words? Oh thats right, so you could change them. I NEVER EVER was talking about “trade value” in anything I said, it was just your imagination and need to find an argument.
I did not use your words as you were trying to falsely portray something. So simply put I did not find enough value in your words or the fallacy you were portraying. So I just took the liberty of saying it how it truly is without having to do a play on words to falsely portray a narrative.
This is funny now.
What you just said in last comment:
“I did not use your words” (your quote, not mine)
=========
My response:
I wanted you to use my words, I BEGGED you to use my words. Because, those are the words I said and accepted.
=========
Every step to how this entire bizarre conversation took place:
– Writer, in article, said he did not view Duran as a 4.0 WAR player moving forward.
– I made an argument that Duran was a 4.0, just by moving to CF
– You decided to chime in and without ANY logic from what I said, decided that I was talking about “trade value” (your words, not mine) and for some reason the Red Sox would only trade him to a team a team in need of a Centerfield, and no one else.
=====
Final Point:
You created entire statements you attributed to me, that never entered the conversation, such as:
‘Red Sox will only trade him to a team that makes him a CF’
or
‘Im looking to increase Duran’s higher trade value’
Why wouldnt you just accept my words, instead of your interpretation of them, so that we could have a baseball discussion?
============
Just go away now
Your entire argument is just by labeling Duran a CF he becomes more valuable. You pivot to a team needing a CF automatically would trade more.
His value is his value that still holds true regardless. You also conviently want to ignore every other season that hes been a below average CF. He has speed that doesn’t age well. Thats only thing compensating for poor judgement/route running. Sorry but these are things some have and others don’t almost always. He already has it an elite level to be playing OF in MLB, that extra bit most likely just doesn’t have. Thats not a bad thing, hes just not truly a plus defensive CF.
“valuable” I never once said he’d be more valuable. More value than what? Where did I use the word value?
“trade more” When did I ever say anything about what people are going to trade. And you say Im pushing for this unknown value to be increased?
—-
Seriously, youre having an argument in your head that isnt happening. Look at my comments, never once have I said anything even remotely to what you think Im saying.
If you notice I did not use quotes on the word valuable, hence I did not say you said that verbatim.
You said something along the lines of team offering the most would be a team needing a CF. That offer you are referring to is the value Im talking about. By you stating a team needing a CF would offer the most, that is essentially saying that hes most valuable when hes deemed a CF.
You cam try and talk around it all you want, you can try and have last word, you can keep being irrational, etc… The point still stands his past production is his past production it at this point is a constant. That is the production every team will base his value off of, call him a CF, ventriliquist, part time mascot, whatever you want. The point still still stands his value is what it is and he ll still be a 29 yr old MLB player who has played primarily LF and CF during his career. Nothing changes any of this that is what has happened to date.
@Reggie You dont decide that you ll just have the last word. You cant try and talk around and walk back a foolish statement opposed to showing any accountability. You can try and whitewash ignorance such as trying to say parenthesis dont represent a quote. But others arent obligated to settle for such foolishness.
You can call it bizarre. But just labeling him a CF doesn’t change reality. His production to date is what it is. Hes still only played plus defense in CF in one of 5 seasons that hes played any games in CF. He is still a poor route runner. Does not make him a bad player in any way
Id love if Tigers aquired him to be honest. But trying to pretend that labeling him as a CF does not just make him a 4.0 WAR player based solely on 2024 stats and avoiding 4 other seasons as if they never happened.
I don’t buy into the ‘easier position’ thing. I think what a lot of people mean is ‘less important’. And each position requires different attributes. Weak range at 3B, for example, can largely be offset by quicker reaction time.
Same in CF. Pure speed can overcome mediocre reaction time.
@Joe Having more range offsets a weak arm a bit. But speed ofnthe ball far eclipses reaction time. Also more speed does not offset whether someone has natural ability while others dont to that degree. Some people just have amazing reaction, eyesight, processing, etc…
Just playing at MLB level takes amazing ability and talent. Then there’s the different levels of talent in that elite group.
I’m happy you asked. I think this the flaw in defensive metrics. LF is brutal in Fenway specifically because of the monster. I don’t believe they do a good job of accurately capturing the wall because they use time and distance, but happy to hear to the contrary. Here are 2 examples of a 95% and 90% catch probability:
baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=598f45…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a4aac8…
The Orioles traded for Trevor Rogers they deserve credit for that even if some other moves didnt work out.
The nice thing about the Orioles rotation is the guys who weren’t good last year are no longer around and probably not coming back. And that was part of their strategy was to not get tied into long term commitments. Yes 2025 was a dude but at least they get to start over in 2026 and hopefully do it right this time.
And the Os tommy john pitchers should be back next year including grod after bone chip removal surgery. They might be OK with bradish, rogers, grod, wells and kremer as starting 5 but no depth and you are banking on grod being 100% which is iffy and the tj guys being up for 30+ starts. A guy like Keller would slot in good as a 2 to 3 and push grod out if not healthy or wells to BP where he could close/setup.
Anything they get from Grayson should be considered a bonus. Until he can make it through a full season without a major injury or issue that limits his play, they really should not be operating with the thought that he is going to be a reliable starter in ‘26.
He will likely be on an innings limit and they obviously want to handle him in a way that allows him to contribute, hopefully at a high level and throughout the entire season. I’ve mentioned it on here before, but I feel as though there is a legitimate opportunity and case for utilizing him out of the bullpen this coming season (same with T. Wells) – and once he’s had a few opportunities out of the pen, start using him in high leverage situations and see how he does.
If the O’s don’t make a real concerted effort to acquire a No 1 arm then they’re hopeless. They built up an impressive stable of young offensive talent but remain a serious ace away from being in the AL race mix. Signing a Cease or trading for a Ryan is job 1…
Cease and his 4.7 era aren’t a number 1. Bradish and rogers are more of a number 1.
Weird isn’t it? A former ace who was dominant in the 2nd half and is apparently back to his former self is getting less respect than a guy who had one monster year four years ago, but has had 3rd starter numbers in all the rest.
Can you even call Cease an innings eater since the sixth inning is something he rarely completes.
styme – I’m no fan of Cease, but the guy JUST LAST YEAR was 4th in innings pitched with 189 and only 4 pitchers in MLB pitched more than 199 innings.
With that said, he’s been an ace every other year since 2022 so I can see why he will get big bucks for potential.
BTW – He was 4th in Cy voting JUST LAST YEAR so hardly a #3 starter.
Okay, I may have over exaggerated but only a little. Crazy that 200 IP is considered a workhorse nowadays!
I agree completely. That was their mistake last season. Not signing a bonafide #1 starter. They have the position players, could use a big middle of the order bat, but should be OK there. Bullpen needs work.
You pushed those Angels bombers,.they are both right handed and would make good platoons with the Tigers.
Sold!
Is someone really trading for Ward/Adell to slot them in on the short side of a platoon?
That’s true. ABs and the nice HR #’s coming way down if strictly a platoon situation. But just to be arumentative – could the Tigers work in 3rd base and DH? They need to do something to augment at least one significant signing (not neccesarily LT) for position players – a bat.
He only trades what he doesn’t need. Ortiz and Norby were blocked, Stowers was behind other guys, and DL Hall was seen as IL Hall, and just another RP on occasions when he was able to pitch.
The Preacher Zone Sports Sermon:
You know, every time Major League Baseball starts talking about a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, I start praying; not for the players, not for the owners, but for my wallet that keeps buying overpriced T shirts!!!
Now look, here’s my proposal. We do not need another CBA; we need a CBT: a Common-Sense Baseball Tax.
Here is how it works:
• High-revenue teams pay into a pot.
• That pot goes straight to the players, not the yacht club fund, not the “private island therapy retreat,” and definitely not the “owner’s midlife crisis foundation.”
• The smaller-market teams can dip into that same pot to keep their home-grown players instead of watching them run off like prodigal sons to free agency.
That way, it is a win-win!
The players make more money.
The fans keep their favorite stars.
And the owners… well, they finally learn how to share, a miracle worthy of instant replay.
We call it “Revenue Sharing for Humans.” Because right now, the owners keep splitting the profits like it is communion bread at a billionaire’s brunch.
Imagine it: The Dodgers and Yankees fund a pot that helps the Pirates pay for talent. Suddenly Pittsburgh can afford a shortstop who has hit a baseball in the last decade!
And the best part; it keeps the money where it belongs: on the field, not in some offshore account labeled “consulting bonus hooker” or “emergency yacht fund.”
Baseball’s supposed to be about teamwork, right? So maybe it is time the owners joined the team.
Until then, I say we pass the CBT. Because nothing says “America’s pastime” like everyone finally paying their fair share — and nobody getting traded for tax reasons.
The poster who suggested trading Sproat and Vientos for the aged Contreras can’t possibly be a Mets fan as you noted. Imo, that’s a wacky trade suggestion. I wouldn’t trade Sproat straight up, let alone throwing Vientos in.
Stop the presses. Tim did you really just say you don’t think MLB lost money last year? Thank you for telling the truth. MLB did not lose 2B last year, and suggesting as much is ludicrous.
@dejota – This is what the owners do, and it is the first major shot across the bow. Yeah, they lost $1.8B, but won’t open up their books.
If they want to use the argument in this bargaining process, then they need to actually prove the argument with real transparency and we all know that will not happen.
I think that’s exponentially more difficult when websites like MLBTR hedge in the owner’s favor. This is the first time I’ve seen Tim hedge the other direction. In 20+ years. He’s consistently erred on the side of “we can’t prove they’re liars”. Hopefully this is some sort of weather bell that people are starting to be more critical about what the owners say. Like you said, they won’t open the books. That’s enough to satisfy preponderance of evidence for me but some people need criminal levels of proof. Shame on them unless they’re a judge or jurist in a criminal proceeding.
I definitely have not hedged in the owners’ favor.
I think being uncritical when owner’s claim losses is hedging. But thats my opinion. Its not like you guys are biased or uncritical in general. Thanks for engaging and being my favorite website for 20+ years ❤️