MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.

Sonny in Boston

• Was this a wise move by the Red Sox?  Will it help make the playoffs or hurt in taking up too much money?

Steve Adams

• They’re paying Gray $21MM. That’s not much for Boston. I think they overpaid a bit in terms of the talent they gave up but don’t consider it like an egregious, “what are they thinking?!” style of move. In general, I think teams are too reluctant to trade prospects, so it’s kind of nice to see a trade where it actually feels like the buying club gave up a bit too much.
• In general, I think teams are too reluctant to trade prospects, so it’s kind of nice to see a trade where it actually feels like the buying club gave up a bit too much. Boston is better with Gray than without. Hard stop. It helps them in 2026… maybe hurts down the line if Clarke ever develops even below-average command.

Transaction Thinker

• The Sonny Gray article mentioned that it’s been years since a mutual option was exercised by both sides; I was wondering which player/team was involved.

Steve Adams

• Aramis Ramirez and the Brewers in the final season of Ramirez’s career
• The offseason prior, Matt Belisle and the Rockies both picked up their ends of a mutual option
• I’ve been with MLBTR full-time since 2013 (which is insane to think about, jeez) — and those are the only two times a mutual option has been exercised in my entire time here.

Ben

• Are the stories about the Piratss being aggressive legit or pr?

Steve Adams

• Fully expect them to spend some money this winter. I’ll be stunned if they actually sign Schwarber, but I do think they’ll add an actual bat or two.

Braves fan

• I can see the braves signing bichette, use him as SS until our minor options are ready or albies declines even more then expected, is there any other options viable to be our SS if we dont kim?

Steve Adams

• I’d be shocked if the Braves deviated from their typical MO and spent that heavily on a free agent, but the fit works. I imagine Dubon gets the nod at SS if they can’t bring Kim back or find an outside-the-box option on the trade market. Beyond Kim and Bichette, there’s just not much for shortstop help.

C. Morel

• Am I going to have to accept a minor league deal, or will I get a 1 year prove it?

Steve Adams

• He’s a minor league deal guy for me (not that like, a year and $2.5MM would stun me or anything… but I’m not putting him on my nonexistent 40-man roster haha)

BrewerFan

• If the Cardinals were offering to eat all but say 5mm of Arenado’s deal, what would the Brewers have to surrender to get him?

Steve Adams

• They’d just have to take the remaining $5MM. Maybe give up a low-level prospect you’ve never heard of and would never hear of again after the trade.I’m not convinced every team would even put Arenado on the 40-man roster right now, even with the Cardinals eating the whole contract. He was so bad at the plate last year, and his glove is more good than elite at this point.

Cincinnati kid.

• How about reds trading Nick Lodolo to Boston for Jarren Duran and Garrett Whitlock. Fair for both sides

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t give up Duran alone for Lodolo, let alone Duran + Whitlock.I like Lodolo, but he has less remaining club control than Duran and has all of one healthy season on his résumé.

Cardinals

• This a good trade for them? Why are your grades for each side?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s silly to definitively grade a trade that’ll take years to play out mere minutes after it happened. I do prefer the Cardinals’ side of things, but I get why the Red Sox made the move and it could easily work out great for them if Fitts is like a garden-variety fourth/fifth starter and Clarke never develops any semblance of command.

Mrs. Met

• Bichette at 3B?

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t want that arm at third base, personally, but I can see some teams being open to the idea.

Chris Young

• What am I up to next? Do you think I should trade Seager?

Steve Adams

• There’s no indication that the Rangers have any plans to trade Seager. I see there’s been plenty of blogs speculating on the matter since the Semien trade, but Seager is a 32-year-old with six years and $186MM left on his contract. I don’t think there’d be a long line of teams unless the Rangers were paying down the contract, and I don’t think it makes sense for a team that’s trying to win now to trade its best offensive player.Brandon Nimmo said right after the trade to Texas that he only agreed to waive his no-trade provision after talking to Chris Young and making sure the Rangers weren’t going into any kind of rebuild. I don’t think the Rangers dumping Semien’s ages 35-37 seasons means they’re shopping a 31-year-old Seager (32 in April, but still)

Joseph

• Do you think the Giants are loading up on Outfield options on the fringes in preparation for potentially moving Helloit Ramos and Luis Matos?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think either of those guys has much value — certainly not Matos at this point. Claiming Justin Dean and acquiring Joey Wiemer for cash just seems like adding a couple of role players to vie for at-bats in spring training, and not much more.

Picking Sterns Brain

• Percent chance the Mets sign Tucker now? I don’t personally love Beli’s home/away splits last year and really hope we are not the team to finally give him that long term deal.

Steve Adams

• Have to consider them a viable landing spot, but there are several of those. I don’t know … 10%? Any hard percentage is just a made up number right now, ha. I think it’s realistic, but hardly a given.

Cherington

• Who plays SS for Pirates next year? A stopgap until Griffin is ready?

Steve Adams

• We’ll see how aggressive they are this winter in adding other bats. If they add a couple real hitters to the lineup — I know, I know — then I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest Griffin could hit his way onto the opening day roster with a big spring showing.If not that, they could always just play Nick Gonzales there or sign a Jorge Mateo type to keep the seat warm for a couple months, yeah.

AJ Preller

• Am I going to be allowed to spend while the Siedler brothers figure out what’s going on with the team? Is my window closed to win a championship?

Steve Adams

• San Diego Union-Tribune reported at the time the sale exploration was announced that the 2026 payroll would be about the same as in 2025, which gives Preller a whole lot of nothing to work with.
• They’re about $10MM or so shy of last year’s payroll. I was surprised the tendered Jason Adam with payroll concerns, a deep bullpen and him coming off that ruptured tendon

John

• Nationals make sense for geno Suarez?

Steve Adams

• Nats aren’t going to sign a notable veteran like that to a multi-year deal, no. They’ll give Brady House another look and maybe add some utility types or minor league deals who can also factor in if House looks overmatched again

Sparky

• I know the Reds are not going after the big contracts…but would they go after any of Geno Suarez (not the smallest contract), Adolis Garcia, JJ Bleday, Miguel Anduja for a power bat or bats?  Any chance of Devin Williams in the bullpen, or Pagan back?…very frustrating with the Reds and their ownership.

Steve Adams

• I think the Reds absolutely have the capacity to add one major contract this offseason, even if it’s an Alonso or Schwarber type. Not saying they will win the bidding, but they should be involved in the markets for both. They’re $20-25MM under last year’s payroll and could always further reduce current projections by trading Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, Gavin Lux, etc.Still surprised they tendered contracts to Will Benson and Sam Moll, though the latter signed for only like $100K north of the minimum, so meh.
• As for the names you suggested, none of them will be expensive outside of Devin Williams, so yeah, Reds can be involved for any of the bunch

Matthew

• If J.T. Realmuto signs elsewhere, what are some realistic options for the Phillies at catcher?

Steve Adams

• Trade for Ryan Jeffers. Sign Victor Caratini. Try to pry one of the Cardinals guys free (Jimmy Crooks, Ivan Herrera). See if the Reds will listen on Stephenson.

CHISOX FAN

• Are we going to trade Quero? That would be stupid. Every team needs  two catchers. What’s wrong with having two good ones?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think the White Sox getting interest in both is any sort of sign that they’re planning to trade one of the two, but there’s no sense in not listening.Also, I’m not entirely sure Quero is a “good catcher” — at least not yet. The glove needs a lot of work, and his offense was pedestrian. He’s young and there’s plenty of development time left for him, of course, but I feel like the White Sox currently have one good catcher (Kyle Teel) and a possible second one.

Angels OF

• Can Bleday, Tauchman or Yaz fit LF for halos. If halos pay 8 mill of Soler contract would there be any takers maybe KC or Cleveland.

Steve Adams

• Soler is a 34-year-old DH coming off a below-average offensive season and his highest strikeout rate since 2020. I don’t think paying down to $5MM is enough. He might not get a big league deal if he were a free agent.Bleday/Tauchman/Yaz for the Angels in LF seems fine, sure, but they should be looking more at center fielders than corner guys. You can’t play Adell in CF after how bad he looked there in 2025.

AstrosFAN

• Do you think Jesus Sanchez could go to Kansas City in Astros shop him?

Steve Adams

• He’s another guy that I thought was a very strong candidate to get non-tendered. I know Houston needs some LH balance in that lineup and traded for him this past July, but I thought they’d cut their losses given how bad he was there.Royals, Guardians, Pirates, Reds all make varying degrees of sense, but the return is going to be negligible. I think they should’ve just moved on, saved the $6-7MM and looked for alternative solutions. Especially with Jim Crane once again reluctant to cross the CBT threshold.

Adam

• Does the Sonny gray return up the value of other starting pitchers on the trading block?

Steve Adams

• Modern front offices don’t really subscribe to the “If he cost this, then this guy is going to cost even MORE” mentality. They’ve got their models for how they value players and aren’t going to deviate much, if at all, from them because of how another team valued a completely separate asset.

Joe Ryan

• Am I still a fit in Boston after the Gray trade?

Steve Adams

• Still have two rotation spots up for grabs, but I think Red Sox fans have disproportionately hinged their hopes on Ryan, specifically, since they were interested in him at the deadline. (Rob Bradford — who is great! Hi Rob! — frequently hyping him probably helps fan the flames a bit, too)
• But sure, you could acquire Ryan, and go with a Crochet-Ryan-Gray-Bello front four and leave the fifth spot up to a Tolle/Early/Sandoval/Crawford competition. Guys are going to get hurt, so you’ll need all those other arms at some point anyhow. (Plus, Early or Tolle might be part of the ask to get two years of Ryan)

Rally Monkey

• Combining questions: How about a change of scenery framework of Soler for Arenado? Money coming from STL would have to be involved (all but 5 MM in 2027 perhaps). Cards could get out from next year’s commitment and save a bit of money while Angels get a slightly above average defensive 3rd basemen and rebound candidate.

Steve Adams

• There’s no reason for the Cardinals to take on Soler. They’re not going to want him on the roster. They could eat some of his contract and just release him, but that’s no different from just agreeing to pay down more of Arenado’s contract.I don’t see any way the Halos get out of the Soler deal short of simply releasing him.

Veteran Righthander

• On Marlins suggesting they will bid on some players, perhaps even spend–about how much would they need to show the league/other owners that they were attempting to be competitive?

Steve Adams

• They’d try to push their luxury tax/CBT number up into the same 105 range the A’s targeted last year. For Miami, that’d mean adding another $35MM or so in AAV — but 40-45 might be safer to make sure they avoid any kind of grievance that’d come up in CBA talks.

Ben

• The obvious move for the Orioles is to spend on at least one (ideally more) arm that can slot into the rotation alongside Rogers, Bradish, and the pupu platter… is the Ward acquisition the end of looking for bats? While it’s reasonable to expect bounce backs from a number of guys (Adley, Gunnar’s power, Cowser, etc), I don’t feel confident in JUST Ward bolstering that lineup… maybe a mid-tier bat such as a reunion with O’Hearn or Yastrzemski or even a guy like Willi Castro?

Steve Adams

• The Athletic was out here writing the day after the Ward trade that Baltimore hasn’t even ruled out a run at Kyle Tucker. I don’t think they’re done shopping for bats at all, although echoing a common refrain here, I was surprised they tendered a contract to Ryan Mountcastle.

Buster Posey

• Is trading Bryce Eldridge a viable option this offseason, with Devers looking to take 100-110+ games at 1B next year? Packaging Bryce and some other MLB-ready arms, plus some mid-level prospects, possibly attract an offer from Scott Harris of the Tigers for Skubal?

Steve Adams

• I still see almost 0% chance that the Tigers trade Skubal.But separately, yes the Giants can and probably will at least consider the idea of trading Eldridge. Have to think he could be an important part of a trade if the Twins shop Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez, or if the Marlins are listening on Edward Cabrera, or when the Nats shop MacKenzie Gore, etc.

Kyle

• Would any of the dodgers pitching prospects or a guy like Wrobleski get Cowser from the Orioles? Fits need for need

Steve Adams

• I’m pretty down on Cowser overall. I wouldn’t trade Wrobleski for him. But yeah, that would (or should!) get Baltimore’s attention

Murakami

• In your top 50 FA rankings, you had Murakami ranked 4th. I see a lot of negativity around him (defense, inability to hit fast balls). How big of a variance was there in these rankings (i.e., how much farther down the list could you see him to have been reasonably ranked)?

Steve Adams

• We base them on earning power. I can definitely see us being high on Murakami — potentially very high — but I can also see us being low on him. Murakami and Imai are the two far and away highest-variance players on our list.That said, I’d be pretty shocked if Murakami came in south of $90MM, so for me there was never any way he was going to be lower than No. 12 or so. (We had Josh Naylor 12th with a five-year, $90MM prediction)

Byron Buxton

• Who do you see covering the outfield with me in Minnesota next year (I will still be in Minnesota next year, right?)

Steve Adams

• Unless the Pohlad family orders further payroll reduction and the Twins trade Joe Ryan/Pablo Lopez — at which point I believe Buxton would ask for a trade — then he’ll be back, yeah.Alan Roden and Matt Wallner probably open the season in the corners, but by the summer they’ll be talking about potential promotions for top prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez (health permitting)

John

• this is a dumb question, but if it’s looking like a 2027 lockout, why don’t they try to ramp up cba talks now?

Steve Adams

• They had some preliminary talks during the GM Meetings last week

Addy Barg

• I’m a rare Blue Jays fan that doesn’t want the team to resign Bichette. I just don’t see him aging well on a 7-8 year contract, especially with how poor the defense is. I would rather they spend elsewhere. Thoughts?

Steve Adams

• I think the bat is going to age as well as you can reasonably expect. I get the defensive concerns, but I’m on the opposite end of the spectrum from you. I’d be pushing hard to keep him around for the next eight years or so. He’s such a good hitter, fans love him, clubhouse loves him, etc

Dale

• Would you agree that the Twins have a high-variance crop of players? As in, a lot of young — but with big league experience — guys, who if they all somehow took steps in the right direction, could end the rebuild before it even starts?

Steve Adams

• I do agree with that. The farm is deep, and that doesn’t even include guys like Keaschall, Roden, Lee, Lewis and Taj Bradley — any of whom could be an above-average regular next season.I have a hard time seeing that many things go right for them and would like their chances far more if ownership actually let the front office spend. ….But I don’t expect them to do that, either.

Walter

• Gavin Williams and Steven Kwan for Hunter Greene and Spencer Steer. Would free some payroll for the Reds to get Schwarber.

Steve Adams

• Trading Hunter Greene — even for Williams/Kwan — would be antithetical to signing Schwarber, which is a win-now move. Greene is the best player in that package you laid out.And the Reds don’t need to shed payroll to sign Schwarber. Or at least they shouldn’t. You can backload the deal a bit to make 2026’s salary more manageable, and they’ll have Singer/Stephenson/Lux off the books next winter, with no truly exorbitant arb raises due

David

• Did any of the non-tenders surprise you?

Steve Adams

• No one who was non-tendered surprised me — just surprised by how many middling players were tendered contracts. Teams this year almost exclusively non-tendered guys with five-plus years of service. Are the Pirates, Guards, etc. going to run the Jack Suwinskis and Will Bensons of the world through waivers, knowing they’ll go unclaimed and can be stashed in AAA as depth since they won’t reject the outright? It was just weird.

Jeff Torborg

• Do Vientos/Tong/Mauricio get Buxton and Pablo Lopez to Queens??

Steve Adams

• Nope

John

• Best starting pitcher available for trade? Available with more than a 30% chance to get traded

Steve Adams

• MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera, Joe Ryan, Mitch Keller … I think like half our Top 40 Trade Candidate list for the offseason was starting pitchers, ha:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/mlb-rumors-top-trade-candidates…

Guarded Indian

• Where is the tracking for the prediction contest?  I think I have a couple correct already.  I love this contest!

Steve Adams

• Not sure. I can check with Tim when the leaderboard is going up. But there will be one sooner than later.

Christopher Morel

• I’d be a perfect fit for the Royals bench and as an insurance policy for Caglianone.  What’s the chances I sign a one year deal in Kansas City?

Steve Adams

• Disagree and think the Royals already have enough low-OBP guys who can’t really hit. That’s sort of their problem every year, especially in the outfield.

Buc Stops Here

• Adolis Garcia seems like a great sign for the Pirates as a bounce-back candidate. Can 3/$45m get it done?

Steve Adams

• If the Pirates (or anyone) thought Garcia was worth that, he wouldn’t have been non-tendered
• The Rangers couldn’t find a trade partner at one year and around $12MM. He’ll probably sign for a year and $7-10MM plus incentives.

BRADY

• RATE SONNY GRAY TRADE  THANKS

Steve Adams

• READ EARLIER IN CHAT THANKS
• 🙂

It’s Richard Fitts!

• If CY can somehow sign Luis Arráez, Devin Williams and find this years Patrick Corbin (John Means?) can we make a playoff run in 26?

Steve Adams

• Rangers fans really want Luis Arraez, it seems (at least based on these chats). I … would not, haha.I do think there’s enough talent in the Texas core to make a run with some more additions, and there’s still room to add while keeping the payroll a good ways south of last year.
• Ok. I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow (I think), and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut (during the season), weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series and more.

  Thanks everyone, and have a great week! Happy Thanksgiving to all.