I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes one more time on this week's mailbag. In this edition, we'll look at (very) hypothetical trade possibilities surrounding the Angels' Jose Soriano and the Twins' Joe Ryan, some young Nationals, the recent wave of extensions, and some questions on the outlooks for the Rays and Cardinals. Let's begin!
Casey asks...
OK, you're the Angels (sorry). When do you trade Jose Soriano...to whom...and what would be a likely return??
I'll delve into some hypotheticals involving Soriano's trade value and potential suitors shortly, but first and foremost, I'd caution against the idea of the Angels trading him.
That may sound counterintuitive. After all, the Halos obviously aren't expected to contend this season. They're out to a 3-3 start on the year, but the team's bullpen is comprised of rebound candidates, its position player group is littered with strikeout-prone veterans whose best years are behind them, and the rotation has all of two established big league starters: Yusei Kikuchi and Soriano.
FanGraphs projects the Angels to go 71-85 over the rest of the season. Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA is far more bearish, projecting a 66-96 season even after a decent first week of play. Very few expect this team to compete. (Apparently that's OK for owner Arte Moreno, who recently claimed that winning isn't among the top five priorities for Angels fans. Got it, Arte.)
Beyond that grim outlook, the Angels' farm is one of the game's worst. Anaheim's system briefly trended upward several years ago, but that was short-lived. Frequent development misses and prioritization of players who are close to MLB-ready in the draft -- often in place of higher-ceiling talents who are further from the majors -- have left the team without much of a farm. That leads to repeated dice rolls on former top prospects; the current roster includes names like Oswald Peraza, Yoan Moncada, Alek Manoah, Grayson Rodriguez and Vaughn Grissom.
On the surface, all of that would seem to indicate a rebuild is nigh. The Angels haven't reached the playoffs since 2014. They haven't had a winning season since 2015. This is a team in dire need of a rebuild.
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Arte doesn’t do rebuilds. That would require trading name players that he thinks fans come to the ballpark see.
The Angels, now 3-4 after today’s 16 strike out loss, will never get above .500 with this owner. He has projected his apathy towards winning onto the fans assuming there would be no push back regarding his comment. Winning begins and ends with pitching and we don’t have it past Soriano. Detmers has proven he is not a starter yet here he is in the rotation…again. Moreno has shown that he will not allow his GM Du Jour to build a winning team because Moreno doesn’t care about winning. So Soriano’s value in a trade is really irrelevant because our GM will not be allowed to make a baseball-first decision on who to get in return.