From a transaction perspective, this time of the baseball calendar is defined by extensions. Within the past month, we've seen two impending free agents (Nico Hoerner and Jesús Luzardo) come off the board. The Cubs got a deal done with pre-arbitration center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Philadelphia extended Cristopher Sánchez even though he was already potentially signed through 2030.
The Orioles extended arbitration-eligible starter Shane Baz. The Mariners reached the largest pre-debut extension with shortstop prospect Colt Emerson. That's likely to be a brief record with the Pirates reportedly working on a deal with #1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin. Milwaukee infield prospect Cooper Pratt is nearing an eight-year contract of his own despite being a couple tiers below Griffin and Emerson according to scouts.
Despite all that activity, there's one demographic that has stayed out of the early-season extension run. There have not been any long-term deals for pre-arbitration pitchers this spring. Teams aren't quite as aggressive in extending pitchers early in their careers as they are with elite position player talents. There's more injury uncertainty with young arms.
However, there are generally a few extensions for pre-arbitration hurlers each season. Tanner Bibee, Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona closer Justin Martinez signed extensions last spring. Brayan Bello agreed to a six-year deal the year before that. Hunter Greene, Spencer Strider, Aaron Ashby, Garrett Whitlock and Emmanuel Clase were among those to sign between 2022-23.
Will any young pitchers sign extensions within the next few weeks? Let's run through a few speculative possibilities in each service class and the kind of money which those pitchers could command.
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probly time to hit the brakes on pitcher extensions.
pfaadt- career 5.16 era
bello – career 4.14 era. (9.64 era so far in 2026)
justin martinez- 4.11 era in 2025, out with TJ all of 2026
bibee- 4.23 era 2025-26
clase- soon to be cy young winner of cleveland penitentiary
The Rangers should go ahead and sign Leiter to a longterm deal at the end of this season if things go well for him this season.
Is the current trend of extending young prospects/ players may be driven by anticipated changes to the Collective Bargaining Ageement?
The Players Association (Union) has floated “trial balloons” advocating a shorter path to free agency in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement
Major changes to the CBA are “on the table” and both sides may have to make major concessions including spending practices that levels the playing field for smaller and mid market MLB franchises.
A “Floor” and “Ceiling” has been discussed and floated around as a serious proposal for the next CBA.
It may be in the form of much higher taxes on big spending ballclubs, loss of early round draft picks and more.
Mid and Smaller market MLB franchises may be strongly motivated to contractually ” lock up” top, young prospects/players
to retain their top young talent under the current CBA rules rather than “roll the dice” and find themselves with even less control of the players they draft, sign and develop only to see them walk away in free agency in shorter period of time in a New, proposed, CBA?!
IDK how you model a general pitcher extension. Position players are just so much more projectable and less risky to lose significant time. They’re not entirely unworkable given clubs’ and players’ varying appetite for risk, but how do you cost control for TJ, TOS, shoulder surgery, etc. that knock a player to the IL for an extended duration and can negatively impact their underlying skills? Some combination for player options to revert to club options if certain IP thresholds aren’t met (which sounds ripe for abuse)? Higher guarantee but club options if players miss a certain amount of games due to elbow/shoulder?