Mariners Interested In Ramon Vazquez
The Mariners are interested in Ramon Vazquez and could reach a deal with the infielder soon, according to Shannon Drayer of ESPN 710 in Seattle. The Pirates released Vazquez earlier in the month, but as MLBTR's Luke Adams pointed out before the release, Vazquez does have some value for teams looking for infield depth. Other clubs haven't been linked to Vazquez since his release, but Drayer says a deal with the Mariners "could happen shortly."
Vazquez, 33, hit .230/.335/.279 in 239 plate appearances for the Pirates last year, but his career .254/.328/.350 line suggests he could hit better than that. Vazquez, who will only cost the major league minimum to sign, played shortstop, second and third last year and has experience at all four infield positions. The Mariners announced today that Jack Hannahan will begin a rehab assignment at Triple A Tacoma, so they do have depth on the way.
Calling Up Top Prospects
Pedro Alvarez, Desmond Jennings and Carlos Santana have more in common than their status as top prospects. These guys are as cheap as they’ll ever be and their teams can control their future salaries by calling them up strategically.
Just ask the Rays. Evan Longoria fell two days short of a full year of service time, which delayed his free agency by a year and GM Andrew Friedman went on to sign Longoria to one of the most team-friendly deals around. The team's decision to keep him in the minors for a couple weeks in April 2008 looks as prudent today as it looked cheap then.
If teams wait until late April to call on a player without major league service time, they can save considerably. Players who make their big league debuts after April 19th (that’s Monday) this year won’t spend enough time on a major league roster to earn a full year’s service time, so their free agency will be pushed back a year.
If the Braves had called Jason Heyward up in late April, they could likely have delayed his free agency and he would have been under team control through 2016. But the Braves didn’t try to save with Heyward, who’s off to a hot start. It’s Bobby Cox’s last season and the Braves just want to win, so on-field ability comes first for the Braves right now.
The D’Backs faced a similar dilemma with Brandon Allen last summer. The 24-year-old first baseman was hitting well in the minors, well on his way to earning the number four spot on Baseball America’s list of top D’Backs prospects. In 502 plate appearances, he had a .298/.373/.503 line with 20 homers.
The D’Backs could have limited Allen’s service time by keeping him in the minors. That would not necessarily have delayed his free agency or limited his arbitration years, but it would have made it easier for the D’Backs to save money in years to come. But D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes says the service time clock was secondary.
Byrnes says he will call on some promising young players – Justin Upton comes to mind – in August or September. It may mean they pick up service time, but Byrnes says it’s often worth it.
“In my experience, players like Jason Jennings, Juan Pierre and Jonathan Papelbon had impact in the first full season after a late-season call-up the year before,” said Byrnes, who worked for the Indians, Rockies and Red Sox before taking over the D’Backs in 2005.
The Rockies called on Juan Pierre in August of 2000, setting him up for a big 2001 season (.327/.378/.415 line, 46 SB). Jason Jennings made seven starts for Colorado down the stretch in 2003 before winning NL Rookie of the Year the next season. The Rockies played Pierre and Jennings instead of slowing their ascent to free agency and arbitration by keeping them in the minors.
In those cases, the decision to put player development ahead of player cost paid off. But that doesn’t mean the D’Backs don’t have one eye on their players’ service time clocks.
“Of course, we are aware of years of control and arbitration in anything we do (including trades), but service implications have not been taken precedent over baseball decisions,” Byrnes said.
And that choice is entirely the team’s. Agent Matt Sosnick, whose clients inlcude Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Jay Bruce, realizes clubs make these decisions.
“As an agent you have to know that,” he says. “I mean that’s the deal. It’s the teams that make that call and that’s out of your control [as an agent].”
Sosnick predicts this year will be no different than others: top prospects will get the call at the end of May and beginning of June. That limits the player’s service time to 130 days or so, which reduces his chances of qualifying for super two status. Since super twos go to arbitration four times instead of the usual three, it’s a big deal. In essence, teams can save millions by keeping an eye on the service time clock.
Ultimately, he can’t blame the clubs for calling players up when they do.
“You look at the amount of players that are called up within a couple weeks of that time and from a business standpoint, it was a smart thing.”
After all, players earn considerably more when they’re super twos.
“It can be the difference between making $500K and $5 million bucks in that year,” Sosnick says.
The Reds called Jay Bruce up on May 27th, 2008. That left Bruce with 125 days of service time after the season. After this coming season, he’ll likely be a week or two short of super two status. The consequence of the late call-up was obvious to Bruce.
“He was at the point when he was called up- he knew that getting called up at that point meant that he was not going to be super two,” Sosnick says.
Agents might hope their clients pick up a full year of service time or gain super two status, but they can’t do much more than wish.
“What would the alternative be?” Sosnick asks. “Should I go to a general manager and say ‘listen why don’t you call him up ten days earlier so that two years from now he can be a super two and go to arbitration a year earlier.’ They’ll tell me to piss off.”
The Blue Jays And Vernon Wells
Vernon Wells will have negative trade value until his contract expires at the end of the 2014 season. Wells' deal is considered one of the worst in the game. After all, the three-time Gold Glover has $98.5MM coming his way even though his defense has deteriorated rapidly and he hasn't topped 20 homers in any season since 2006.
But Wells underwent successful wrist surgery last offseason, he's a year removed from the hamstring problems that sidelined him last spring and he has four home runs in his first six games. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said this weekend that Wells would probably waive his no-trade clause. No team would take Wells on if it meant shouldering nearly $100MM, but GM Alex Anthopoulos could potentially find a team that would take on some of Wells' salary – it's a question of how much.
Last winter, the Cubs signed Marlon Byrd to a three-year $15MM deal after a career year in which he hit .283/.329/.479 with 20 homers. Byrd is 32, a year older than Wells, but there was still enough interest for him to sign a multi-year deal.
But this doesn't mean Wells could find a $15MM offer on the open market; in fact, it's hard to imagine any club offering more than a few million. Wells has just a .317 on base percentage since signing his long-term deal and his defense has cost the Blue Jays in recent years, according to UZR (Byrd's defense has been closer to average).
Toronto's supporters can still hope, though. If Wells hits well this year and has healthy enough legs underneath him to impress scouts and turn around his defensive numbers, teams may be willing to trade for Wells and pick up some of the money he's owed. Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark Kotsay and Rick Ankiel lead the next crop of free agent center fielders, so teams aren't about to find elite solutions on the open market. The Blue Jays will not be able to trade Wells without paying the vast majority of his contract, but they can dream about a deal that allows them to shed $10-20MM.
Odds & Ends: Strasburg, Guillen, Marlins, Posey
Some links as the first week of baseball comes to a close…
- Stephen Strasburg, who struck out eight over five innings of work in his pro debut today, will be limited to about 100 innings this year, according to MLB.com's Peter Gammons (via Twitter). Gammons says Scott Boras negotiated that condition into the righty's deal with the Nationals last summer. However, Nationals farm director Doug Harris told MASN.com's Ben Goessling that a 100 inning cap for Strasburg "doesn't hold water" (Twitter link). Harris says 150-160 innings would be reasonable for Strasburg (Twitter link).
- MLB.com's Jason Beck explains that Carlos Guillen nearly became an Indian six years ago.
- Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post wonders how long the Marlins will let Cameron Maybin struggle before calling on top prospect Mike Stanton.
- Buster Posey had a huge opening week in Triple A, so Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders (via Twitter) how long the Giants can keep him in the minors. The timing of Posey's call up matters a great deal to the Giants, as I explained here.
Rich Aurilia Retires
Rich Aurilia officially retired, according to MLB.com's Chris Haft. Aurilia says he misses playing, but told Haft it's time for a "different phase" of his life.
Aurilia had hoped to play again this year with the Yankees or Mets. Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reported earlier in the year that Aurilia had a broadcasting deal in place in case he couldn't find a big league job.
The 38-year-old signed a minor league deal worth $1MM with the Giants last year and went on to hit .213/.256/.279 in 133 plate appearances. That's far from the .275/.328/.433 line Aurilia posted over the course of a 15-year career that began on the Giants in 1995, alongside Dave Burba, Deion Sanders and Rod Beck.
Aurilia hit 186 home runs, made an All Star team and won the 2001 Sliver Slugger when he hit 37 homers as the Giants' shortstop. Aurilia made about $32MM in his career, according to Baseball-Reference.
Week In Review: 4/4/10 – 4/10/10
We're a week into the MLB season and there's been tons of action on and off the field. Let's take a look back at the week that was…
- The Red Sox signed Josh Beckett to a four-year $68MM extension. The righty was set to join Brandon Webb, Jorge de la Rosa and Ted Lilly as one of the top free agent pitchers after the season. Intsead, he'll anchor Boston's rotation with Jon Lester, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz, who are all under team control through 2014.
- The Brewers signed Yovani Gallardo to a five-year $30.1MM extension apparently based on the one the Red Sox signed Lester to. It's the biggest deal signed by a pitcher with less than three years of service time.
- We heard that Pedro Martinez plans to pitch again this year. Pedro would like to pitch in the NL for an East coast contender, so it sounds as though the Phillies could be a fit for the second consecutive year. The Mariners, Twins and Dodgers were also linked to the three-time Cy Young Award winner.
- Another free agent pitcher, Jarrod Washburn, has drawn interest from as many as five clubs according to agent Scott Boras. The D'Backs and Indians were linked to Washburn this week.
- Pedro could fit in Philly eventually, but the NL Champs went after a less recognizable pitcher for the time being, claiming Nelson Figueroa from the Mets.
- Not to be outdone, the AL Champs made a waiver claim of their own. The Yankees grabbed Chad Huffman from the Padres.
- We heard that there have not been extension talks for free agents-to-be Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski.
- The Pirates released Ramon Vazquez after designating him for assignment.
- Jack Cust cleared waivers and accepted a minor league assignment.
- The Reds designated a couple noteworthy players for assignment themselves: Aaron Miles and Wladimir Balentien.
- A couple outfielders inked new deals: the Twins signed Jason Repko and the Somerset Patriots signed Ryan Freel.
- We heard that Mike Lowell plans to retire after the season.
- Tim previewed contract issues the Angels, Braves, A's, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers will face leading up to the 2011 season.
- Check out Tim's offseason questions for the NL Central and NL West.
- Mike broke down the largest contracts by service time and position and took stock of the best trade chips in the NL West and NL Central.
The Value Of Super Two Status
Every spring, we hear about teams keeping top young players in the minors to prevent them from obtaining Super Two status. Players like Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters and Stephen Strasburg dominate the minor leagues for a couple months before getting the call near the end of May. The teams' logic is simple: Super Twos go to arbitration four times instead of three, so they make more money than their peers. That provides clubs with an incentive to keep players in the minors for eight or ten weeks of extra seasoning.
But how much more money do Super Twos really make? It depends on the caliber of the player, but Ryan Braun's contract gives us insight into how teams and agents value that extra year of arbitration. Braun isn't a Super Two player, but as Cot's Baseball Contracts shows, his contract would have paid him $25.5MM as a Super Two instead of the $19.5MM he will actually earn.
For Braun, Super Two status would have made a difference of $6MM. Not all Super Twos are superstars, of course, but even ordinary players could make as much as 31% more money over the course of the four last seasons they're under team control. As Yahoo's Jeff Passan explains in this article, Super Twos may be "negotiated into the ether" before long.
Assessing Elijah Dukes’ Value
Most 25-year-olds don't hit the open market, especially if they have a .349 career on base percentage and a track record of success in the minors. A .280/.369/.451 minor league batting line is better than average, but Elijah Dukes is not your average outfielder.
The reputation he developed as a trouble-maker has been hard to shed and there's been little reported interest in Dukes since the Nationals released him about a month ago. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports noted (via Twitter) that multiple teams were interested in late March, but there's been no reported interest in Dukes since.
Dukes seemed like a promising player as recently as last spring, but Ben Goessling of MASN.com says the Nats released Dukes because of his on-field performance (Twitter link). Dukes' outfield defense is below average, according to UZR, and his on base and slugging percentages dropped considerably last year, so the Nationals have a point.
Even though Dukes had a poor season last year, he gets on base, he's young and he's controllable. He is a pre-arbitration player, so the team that signs Dukes will have the rights to his services through 2013. There's no doubt that Dukes' past limits interest in him, but he has enough positives that it would be surprising not too see some club sign Dukes.
Pedro Will Start Throwing, Plans To Pitch
TUESDAY, 7:06pm: Martinez has been linked to the Mariners, Twins, and Dodgers in recent days, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes that Martinez still harbors bad feelings towards the Dodgers organization.
MONDAY, 2:30pm: Pedro Martinez plans to pitch in 2010 and will start throwing this week, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Pedro will work towards a midseason signing like the one the Phillies added him on last summer. He says he can be ready soon.
“I’m in good shape, real good – it doesn’t take me that long to get ready,’’ he said.
He would prefer to pitch for a contender, on or near the East coast in the National League. Right now, the Phillies sound like a fit, given their interest in pitching. A few days ago, I wrote that Pedro could help somebody in 2010. He pitched well last year, but it wasn't until a month after he signed that Pedro appeared in the majors.
Odds & Ends: Giants, Beckett, DePaula, Aubrey
Some links on what promises to be one of the best days of the year…
- Chris Haft of MLB.com writes that the Giants' bench is lacking in right-handed bats, though he doesn't suggest they'll look to make a trade.
- The Red Sox have expressed reluctance in the past to sign pitchers to long-term contracts, but MLB.com's Ian Browne notes that Josh Beckett's extension means the club has four important starters under team control through 2014.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Beckett extension was directly motivated by the Red Sox' rivalry with the Yankees.
- Beckett told reporters that he focuses on the security that comes with his extension, not the money he could potentially have obtained on the open market, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- The San Francisco Chronicle had some nice things to say about MLBTR in its business report. Check it out.
- The Mariners remain the favorites to sign Dominican pitcher Rafael DePaula, according to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
- Michael Aubrey cleared waivers and was outrighted to the minors, according to an Orioles press release. The team designated Aubrey for assignment last week.
- Check out this two-sport star: the White Sox hired former Chicago Bulls GM Jerry Krause to oversee the team's scouting in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPNChicago's Bruce Levine.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette points out that the Pirates will have the lowest Opening Day payroll in baseball and asks when the future starts for the Pirates. His answer? Once Pedro Alvarez takes over third base at PNC Park. If all goes well for Pittsburgh, that could happen before midseason.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times has the Mariners' payroll at about $89MM, a little higher than USA Today's $86.5MM figure.
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that speculation that the Rangers are looking for reasons to fire manager Ron Washington is "silly."
- As Jeff Powalisz of the Boston Globe points out, Boston's free agent acquisitions are already contributing.
- Matt Stairs will become the first modern-day position player to suit up for 12 different teams when he takes the field for the Padres, as MLB.com's Corey Brock points out.