Signing Elite Free Agents
Some free agents are franchise changers — players who alter the look of the team immediately and, more often than not, expensively. While identifying these players is easy, pursuing and signing them is not. General managers interested in top players must be prepared for an involved process that expands beyond the reach of the baseball operations department.
Take it from Dave Dombrowski, the president and GM of the Tigers. Dombrowski said he needed considerable involvement from owner Mike Ilitch to sign Prince Fielder for $214MM last offseason
“I think realistically when you start talking about those type of guys and the dollars that are invested, owners have to be involved,” Dombrowski told MLBTR. “I don’t know of a general manager or a president that has the authority to make a $200MM deal on their own … You don’t pick up the phone as a general manager and sign someone at eight years and $25MM per year and say ‘surprise.’ You don’t do those types of things.”
Last offseason Fielder and Albert Pujols obtained long-term deals worth in excess of $200MM. Ilitch and Angels owner Arte Moreno ended up with the star players, but other clubs were interested in both instances. The Cardinals, for one, had interest in re-signing their longtime first baseman. For St. Louis GM John Mozeliak, full engagement from the front office is a prerequisite for teams intent on signing elite players.
“One of those things that you’re trying to capture is that it’s a very global decision,” Mozeliak said. “So when you think about baseball decisions, you have the ownership side of it. You also have the business side of how they would market it, so you have a lot more people at the table when you’re starting to engage in this.”
This year, Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke are the elite free agents with strong cases for contracts worth $100MM-plus. Whichever team signs those players will be sending a significant message about the direction of the franchise.
“Not only are you looking at how it’s going to affect your team and how it’s going to play next year and in future year,” Mozeliak said. “But also what’s it going to do to your fan base? What kind of messaging are you sending to it? And I just think all of those things thrown together make it far more complicated than just your traditional negotiation.”
Major signings mean a great deal to fans in Dombrowski’s view. Once the Tigers signed Fielder fan interest picked up significantly and the public perception of the club changed.
“Because they look at him as a difference maker compared to somebody else who just may be another guy in people’s minds,” Dombrowski said.
There’s also the question of a team’s overall composition. Two offseasons ago, the Nationals signed Jayson Werth before they were regarded as one of the league’s top teams. Four years ago, the Yankees were already regarded as a playoff caliber team when they spent in excess of $340MM to obtain C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. It’s part of the balancing act for any team wondering whether to spend big.
“Is he the one guy you have, are you building around him?,” Dombrowski asked. “Or is he with some other people? With us I think the difference is we already had a couple of real quality guys and premium type guys and [Fielder] was being added to that group. I think the difference is when you reach that point and it’s not just the one guy, on the field your players look at it as you’re taking a step forward to win.”
These players can create shifts in perception single-handedly, not only for fans and onlookers, but for the team itself. Of course, much has to go right for a team to complete a deal of this magnitude. Signing top free agents takes coordination and timing, not just historic amounts of cash.
GMs Assess Free Agent Class
Leading up to the current offseason, MLB executives and analysts often described the 2012-13 free agent class as thin, weak, or top-heavy. Looking ahead to next year’s class inspires similar reactions. These free agent classes are not overwhelmingly deep.
Might it be time for teams and their fans to adjust expectations regarding free agency? MLB general managers told MLBTR it’s prudent to maintain modest expectations for future free agent classes.
Jack Zduriencik of the Mariners acknowledged that there’s less impact talent on the market this winter than in past years. But he said there’s not necessarily a pattern to be deciphered when it comes to the quality of free agent classes.
“Every year is different,” the GM said. “Next year might be a terrific year depending on what happens. Two years from now might be a great year also. You don’t know what clubs are going to do. Even when you’re sitting here thinking you know what’s going to happen, someone inks a guy to an extension and it changes the future.”
An abundance of extensions for star and superstar caliber players has definitely affected the quantity of elite talent available on the open market. For example, the Reds signed Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to long-term contracts this spring, ensuring that they won’t hit free agency in the prime of their careers.
“I think you’re going to see probably less and less of the top quality guys because clubs are signing them long-term,” GM Walt Jocketty told MLBTR in Indian Wells, California. “I think that’s a trend that we’ll continue to see going forward.”
In other words teams saving up to spend on David Wright or Robinson Cano when they’re scheduled to hit free agency a year from now might be disappointed. As MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows, 51 players have already signed multiyear extensions in 2012 — that’s two full active rosters of players signed in the past ten months alone. Still, Jocketty made it clear that he believes quality players are available in this free agent class.
“I wouldn’t say it’s weak,” he said. “I think there’s not a lot of depth.”
Indeed, it’d be tough to match the combination of Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke in any year. Still, after the first 20 or so players, the list of top available free agents starts to feature more and more players with significant questions about health, age or performance.
Like Jocketty, Frank Wren of the Braves has had multiple GM jobs dating back to the 1990s. Over the years he has completed some shrewd signings (Billy Wagner) and some regrettable ones (Albert Belle). Wren has also noticed some diminishment of the quantity of star players in free agency.
“I think it’s due by and large to the strategies teams are taking of tying up their core young players,” he said. “I think we are seeing that where it’s a little tougher to fill some of your needs through that market.”
This change heightens the importance of other avenues for acquiring and developing players. The Padres, for example, enter the offseason with the intention of relying on trades and internal development along with free agency.
“Probably a little bit of all, but probably not as much in free agency as some people think,” GM Josh Byrnes said, adding that free agency ranks as a relatively low priority for the small-market Padres.
Last winter serves as a warning for teams flirting with the notion of spending big to accelerate toward the postseason. The Marlins had a disastrous season despite an offseason that included three major free agent additions: Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell. The Angels missed the playoffs after spending aggressively on Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. While the team spent on quality players, the additions weren’t enough. Meanwhile, the Athletics ($53MM), Orioles ($26MM) and Nationals ($16MM) made the postseason in 2012 after relatively quiet winters on the free agent market. Sometimes there's a disproportionate amount of attention placed on free agency.
“A lot of times when you refer to free agency, most people would say ‘oh we’re going to get a free agent who’s going to change our ballclub,’” Zduriencik said. “Well, that’s not always the case.”
For some especially aggressive teams, free agency offers the chance to sign elite players. But for most clubs free agency represents a way to supplement a team — not a way to radically alter the club’s complexion.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Duquette On Free Agency, Second Base
The Orioles will pursue offense this offseason, with a particular focus at designated hitter and left field, according to executive VP Dan Duquette. In a conversation with MLBTR at the GM Meetings Duquette said he has the flexibility to pursue free agents who require long-term commitments.
“Sure. We can consider some multiyear deals,” he said. “I believe that our team, though, has a solid foundation. We could add one or two pieces either through trade or free agency or international free agency in the offseason to help our ballclub.”
Duquette focused on the international market in his first offseason with Baltimore, signing Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada to multiyear deals. The Orioles aren’t as impressed with the starting pitching available internationally this year, Duquette said. At the very least, they’ll check in on the top players.
Duquette said he likes the team’s internal options at second base, especially after adding Alexi Casilla. Robert Andino, Brian Roberts and Ryan Flaherty are alternatives in Baltimore, according to Duquette.
Luhnow Talks Pitching, Trades, Lowrie
The Astros will play with a designated hitter next year, when they move to the American League, so a significant part of their offseason involves acquiring a DH. That’s not the only challenge they face as a result of the league change.
“The hidden element of it is more on the pitching side,” general manager Jeff Luhnow told MLBTR. “It exposes any weaknesses that you might have either in your rotation or in your bullpen because there is no breathing room.”
The Astros will focus on adding depth throughout the pitching staff this offseason. That said, Luhnow doesn’t want to impede the development of players already in the organization who project as long-term contributors. Trades are in play, but the Astros are hesitant to surrender significant players.
“We’ve got some assets that other clubs are interested in, but they’re valuable for us because they help us win games in the short term and they’re cost controlled,” Luhnow said. “So the return would have to be significant to go down that path.”
Jed Lowrie, the 28-year-old shortstop who’s under team control through 2014, could be seen as a trade candidate, especially at a time that the market for free agent shortstops isn’t deep. However, Lowrie remains an important part of the Astros’ vision.
“We expect him to be our everyday shortstop and put up some pretty big numbers for us assuming he can make it through a whole season,” Luhnow said, noting that the Astros expect the shortstop to remain healthy in 2013.
Until the team completes the move to the AL, it'll be difficult to project its future revenues. While the Astros aren’t expected to bid for the market’s top few free agents, they could spend on select players. Multiyear free agent deals are an option for the Astros under the right circumstances, Luhnow said.
Mozeliak Talks Furcal, Kozma, Lefty Relief
For the most part, the Cardinals are well-positioned for the 2013 season. They’ll consider upgrades in the middle infield and hope their injured players recover quickly. Other than that, their biggest offseason need might be left-handed relief. GM John Mozeliak addressed his team’s offseason plans at the GM Meetings today in a conversation with MLBTR. Here are some highlights:
- The Cardinals like internal middle infield options such as Rafael Furcal, Pete Kozma and even prospect Kolten Wong. Mozeliak said he’s “very hesitant” to seek a long-term answer in the middle infield at this point. “We feel like we do have some depth there, but clearly if Furcal were injured we might have to look at it a little differently,” the GM said. The shortstop dealt with an elbow injury late this past season.
- Kozma’s late-season performance “definitely saved him” his roster spot, according to Mozeliak. The Cardinals like the shortstop’s energy and enthusiasm.
- Mozeliak said the Cardinals would offer free agent relievers multiyear deals under the right circumstances. “It really comes down to seeing if we can find the right fit for the role we’re looking for,” he said, acknowledging that the Cardinals are interested in adding a left-handed reliever.
Byrnes On Free Agency, Padres
At this point in the offseason, when the free agent market features impact players capable of improving any club, it’s easy to forget that some teams can’t rely on free agency — especially not in early November, when asking prices are high and bargains have yet to emerge. Padres general manager Josh Byrnes is considering free agents, but at this point he ranks free agency third in importance behind trades and developing internally.
“Is it going to happen through trade or free agency or patience? Probably a little bit of all, but probably not as much in free agency as some people think,” Byrnes told MLBTR at the GM Meetings in Indian Wells.
Six of the Padres’ starting pitchers — Cory Luebke, Andrew Cashner, Anthony Bass, Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin — recently dealt with injuries, which makes it difficult to project the 2013 rotation (Wieland and Luebke are recovering from Tommy John surgery). The Padres could look to obtain some certainty by supplementing their rotation with free agents. If they do pursue players on the open market, they might choose to do so relatively late in the offseason. Often team-friendly deals emerge in January or even February.
“That’s certainly recent history,” Byrnes said. “When I was in Arizona we signed guys like [Adam] LaRoche or [Jon] Garland late in the offseason. The early offseason is usually the heavyweights financially but we have to stay active and know what’s out there and, as I said, be patient and disciplined.”
Byrnes said the Padres will remain flexible in case the unexpected occurs and it becomes advantageous to change plans. For now it doesn’t sound as though those plans are oriented around the free agent market.
Cherington Talks Outfield, Iglesias
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said completing this year’s managerial search relatively early should provide the team with some amount of additional flexibility this coming offseason. The GM can focus on the roster now that John Farrell’s in place as Boston’s new manager. Here are more details from Cherington’s conversation with MLBTR at the 2012 GM Meetings…
- The Red Sox are talking to free agent outfielders while discussing possible trades to address their needs in the outfield, Cherington said.
- Cherington expressed confidence that Jose Iglesias can be an MLB shortstop on a good team. “He has a chance to be an elite defender and his development path has probably made his offensive performance look worse than the hitter he actually is,” the GM said. However, nothing will be given to Iglesias and the Red Sox could go with another option if an appealing alternative emerges.
- “We’ve got some work to do this winter,” Cherington acknowledged.
Friedman Talks Pitching, Trades, Zobrist
When I asked Andrew Friedman how he’d assess the Rays’ starting pitching heading into 2013, he made his point pretty quickly. “It’s good,” he said. I caught up with Tampa Bay’s executive VP of baseball operations at the GM meetings in Indian Wells, California yesterday. Here are some of the details…
- The Rays will consider trading starting pitching since they believe in listening to trade offers whenever possible. Still, they realize pitching depth can be fleeting. “The one thing that we’re very wary of is waking up one day and not being able to fill out a rotation in the American League East.”
- The Rays could upgrade at a variety of positions with Jeff Keppinger and B.J. Upton hitting free agency and the versatile Ben Zobrist on the roster. “Our approach is to attack this with a very open mind and focus on guys that we want to acquire in a vacuum.” Once the Rays make one move, their focus will narrow depending on how the initial move affects their roster.
- The Rays like having the flexibility to pursue players at many positions. “That being said, you can’t get paralyzed by the flexibility and end up in January with way too many things to accomplish,” Friedman said.
- Friedman acknowledged that the Rays need position players and relievers. “We have a lot of things we need to accomplish without a ton of resources,” he said.
MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
It’s not too late to sign up for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest. If you can correctly predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, you’ll have the chance to win prizes, including cash, a World Series DVD set, and content from Baseball America. Last year’s winner correctly predicted the destinations for 15 of the top 50 players, which gives you an idea of how challenging this is.
Here's how to play: click here and select a destination for each free agent after signing in with your Facebook account. You don't have to complete all of the picks right away, but don't wait too long — they're due by midnight central time tonight.
Keep in mind that players such as David Ortiz and Joel Peralta who have already signed are freebies as long as you update the selection. Bookmark the leaderboard to see how you’re doing in relation to other readers and MLBTR’s writing team. Good luck!
Wren Talks Hamilton, Prado, Bourn
The Braves’ pitching staff looks deep, but they could turn over one quarter of their lineup in the coming offseason. GM Frank Wren discussed the team with MLBTR at this year's general manager meetings in Indian Wells, California. Here’s the latest on the Braves, including Wren’s thoughts on the offseason’s top free agent position player…
- The Braves are looking at free agents that could fit in Atlanta, and the GM acknowledged Josh Hamilton is on the team’s radar. “Obviously we’re aware of Josh being a free agent, being a guy that would fit the bill for us,” Wren said. “But we’re not a club that has a huge payroll, and one player taking a huge percentage of our payroll is not the strategy we generally take to field our club. We need to put as many quality players on the field as we can and when one player takes such a large percentage, that inhibits our ability to put a team together.” Danny Knobler reported last week that the Braves are intrigued by Hamilton.
- Martin Prado’s versatility means the Braves can pursue outfielders or third basemen, Wren said. “His flexibility is a real benefit to us.”
- The Braves will be seeking outfield reinforcements this offseason, and they’d like to bring back Michael Bourn if possible. “I’m not sure where that market’s going to go, and where he’s going to go. We’ll stay abreast of it,” Wren said. “He’s a guy we’d like to have back.” The center fielder will presumably decline Atlanta’s qualifying offer by Friday’s deadline.
- The Braves’ pitching staff will return mostly unchanged in 2013, and Wren considers pitching depth one of the organization’s primary strengths. “We have some dynamic young pitchers that are on the verge of being a part of our rotation or on our club,” he added. Though Wren remains open to trading from pitching depth, he pointed out that it can disappear quickly.