Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba
The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.
- Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
- Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.
AL Notes: Royals, Holland, Harrison, Urshela
While much of the focus around the game remains on the ongoing draft, let’s take a peek in at the latest from the American League:
- The Royals will soon have to make a call between catchers Drew Butera and Erik Kratz, Jeffrey Flanagan writes for MLB.com. Neither of the reserve backstops can be optioned, and Kratz is nearing the end of a rehab assignment. “If I were to handicap both of them, I would say Butera is the better defensive player and Kratz is the better offensive player,” said skipper Ned Yost, who explained that he had yet to speak with GM Dayton Moore about the decision.
- The Rangers rotation has held together well enough, and has received a nice boost from Chi Chi Gonzalez, but nevertheless remains an area to watch as the team continues to play solid baseball. Texas may well look to add in the rotation, particularly since the club now seems unlikely to welcome back lefty Derek Holland until right around the trade deadline. Holland has not progressed as well as hoped from his sub-scapular strain, GM Jon Daniels told reporters including Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter link). It now looks like he’ll be out until at least late July or even into August, per Daniels.
- In more positive news, fellow Rangers southpaw Matt Harrison has managed to return to the hill and is throwing in the low-90s, as Kevin Sherrington writes for the Dallas Morning News. The results haven’t been there for Harrison in his work thus far at Triple-A — he’s allowed eight earned in ten innings — but that is secondary to his overall health at this point given the serious back issues he has dealt with. Harrison still has work to do, clearly, but he could bolster the Texas rotation by early July. He’s owed $13MM annually this year and the next two, while the team holds a $13.25MM option ($2MM buyout) for 2018.
- As expected, the Indians have officially called up third baseman Giovanny Urshela, a 23-year-old who’ll see his first big league action. Urshela, who entered the year as the system’s 11th-best prospect in the eyes of Baseball America, has slashed .275/.301/.475 in his 83 Triple-A plate appearances this year. He’s said to be more advanced defensively than at the plate, but has significant raw power and solid contact ability (though he does not take many free passes).
Yankees To Sign Sergio Santos
The Yankees are set to sign righty Sergio Santos to a minor league deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. He’ll reportedly head to Double-A.
Santos was designated by the Dodgers and ultimately elected free agency. He put up 13 1/3 innings for Los Angeles, producing a 4.73 ERA while striking out 10.1 and walking 4.7 batters per nine to go with a 46.2% groundball rate. Santos has held righties to a collective .555 OPS this year, though lefties have punished him with a .400/.409/.700 batting line.
New York’s pen has been quite good, though that is due in large part to the unbelievable contributions of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. The current relief corps is heavily left-handed, a rather unusual alignment that creates a window of opportunity for the former White Sox and Blue Jays hurler to step into.
Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis
Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.
Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:
- Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
- The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
- Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
- It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
- Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays‘ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies‘ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins‘ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
- As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.
NL Notes: Holliday, Plawecki, Montero, Mets
Here’s the latest out of the National League:
- Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday left last night’s game with what looked to be a fairly significant quadriceps strain, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but we can expect more information today. While the team does have options in left — Randal Grichuk, Peter Bourjos, and Jon Jay are all available on the MLB roster, and top prospect Stephen Piscotty is waiting at Triple-A — any lengthy loss would be a huge blow. Holliday, 35, has put up a typically strong (although atypically low-power) .303/.417/.421 batting line thus far. And St. Louis is already dealing with the loss of first baseman Matt Adams to a severe quad injury, leaving some questions in the middle of the order.
- The Mets are in an interesting spot as the trade deadline approaches, with some useful trade chips that are also somewhat redundant assets. Among the young, big league level players who the team could conceivably deal, catcher Kevin Plawecki is not really an option to be moved, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Though he’ll likely be replaced soon by Travis d’Arnaud, the Mets don’t want to sacrifice depth behind the plate. But righty Rafael Montero could well be moved, says Puma, though he’ll need to get over his shoulder issues and back on track to carry the kind of value the team would hope.
- While the Mets continue to receive strong results from their rotation, the club’s handling of the staff has been problematic, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Top lefty prospect Steven Matz is being held down until Super Two avoidance can be assured, says Sherman, while the club struggles to figure out what to do with Jon Niese and Dillon Gee.
- Sherman adds that the club “may have been able” to get Juan Uribe from the Dodgers in exchange for Gee, but passed on the opportunity because the team did not yet appreciate the severity of David Wright‘s back problems. The club is now struggling to fill in at the hot corner, particularly with Daniel Murphy joining Wright on the DL.
Minor Moves: Alex White
Here are the minor moves from the day:
- The Astros have released righty Alex White, a former first-round pick (15th overall) of the Indians, according to Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee (via Twitter). Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the now-26-year-old was a significant part of the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland back in 2011. After moving swiftly through the minors with outstanding results in his first two seasons as a pro, White threw 149 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball at the major league level over 2011-12. He has been unable to regain his prior trajectory, struggling in particular with heightened walk tallies.
2015 MLB Draft Results — Competitive Balance (A)
We already watched a 26-pick conventional first round unfold before ten choices were made by clubs that lost free agents who had declined qualifying offers. Now, we’ll track the results of the final choices before the official start of the second round: those awarded through a lottery held among the league’s ten smallest markets and/or lowest revenue clubs.
As before, you can find bonus pool info and lots of useful links on the players being selected right here. Here are the results:
- 37. Houston Astros (via Marlins) — OF Daz Cameron, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy (GA HS)
- 38. Colorado Rockies — 3B Tyler Nevin, Poway (CA HS)
- 39. St. Louis Cardinals — RHP Jake Woodford, Plant (FL HS)
- 40. Milwaukee Brewers — LHP Nathan Kirby, Virginia
- 41. Atlanta Braves (via Padres) — 3B/RHP Austin Riley, DeSoto Central (MS HS)
- 42. Cleveland Indians — RHP Triston McKenzie, Royal Palm Beach (FL HS)
2015 MLB Draft Results — First Round
The 2015 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll track the first-round picks as they come in — starting with the first 26 picks (worst-to-first, and excepting teams that sacrificed picks to sign qualifying offer-declining free agents) and continuing into the “sandwich” choices (selections awarded to clubs that lost QO-declining free agents).
Click here for bonus pools and other important context, including links to scouting reports and other assessments. Here are the picks:
- Arizona Diamondbacks — SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt
- Houston Astros — SS Alex Bregman, LSU
- Colorado Rockies — SS Brendan Rodgers, Lake Mary (FL HS)
- Texas Rangers — RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara — Agreed to $4.2MM bonus
- Houston Astros — OF Kyle Tucker, Plant (FL HS)
- Minnesota Twins — LHP Tyler Jay, Illinois
- Boston Red Sox — OF Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas
- Chicago White Sox — RHP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt
- Chicago Cubs — OF Ian Happ, Cincinnati — Agreed to $3MM bonus.
- Philadelphia Phillies — SS Cornelius Randolph, Griffin (GA HS)
- Cincinnati Reds — C Tyler Stephenson, Kennesaw Mountain (GA HS) — Agreed to sign for slot value of $3.141MM
- Miami Marlins — 1B Josh Naylor, St. Joan of Arc (Canada HS)
- Tampa Bay Rays — OF Garrett Whitley, Niskayuna (NY HS)
- Atlanta Braves — LHP Kolby Allard, San Clemente (CA HS)
- Milwaukee Brewers — OF Trenton Clark, Richland (TX HS)
- New York Yankees — RHP James Kaprielian, UCLA
- Cleveland Indians — LHP Brady Aiken, IMG Academy (JuCo)
- San Francisco Giants — RHP Phil Bickford, Southern Nevada (JuCo)
- Pittsburgh Pirates — SS Kevin Newman, Arizona — Signed for $2.175MM bonus
- Oakland Athletics — SS Richie Martin, Florida
- Kansas City Royals — RHP Ashe Russell, Cathedral Catholic (IN HS)
- Detroit Tigers — RHP Beau Burrows, Weatherford (TX HS) — Agreed to sign for slot value of $2.154MM
- St. Louis Cardinals — OF Nick Plummer, Brother Rice (MI HS) — Agreed to $2.124MM bonus
- Los Angeles Dodgers — RHP Walker Buehler, Vanderbilt
- Baltimore Orioles — OF D.J. Stewart, FSU
- Los Angeles Angels — C Taylor Ward, Fresno State — Agreed to $1.67MM bonus
Compensation
- 27. Colorado Rockies — RHP Mike Nikorak, Stroudsburg (PA HS)
- 28. Atlanta Braves — RHP Mike Soroka, Bishop Carroll (Canada HS)
- 29. Toronto Blue Jays — RHP Jon Harris, Missouri State — Agreed to sign for slot value of $1.944MM
- 30. New York Yankees — SS Kyle Holder, San Diego
- 31. San Francisco Giants — 1B Chris Shaw, Boston College
- 32. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, Concordia Lutheran (TX HS) — Agreed to sign for slot value of $1.855MM
- 33. Kansas City Royals — RHP Nolan Watson, Lawrence North (IN HS)
- 34. Detroit Tigers — OF Christin Stewart, Tennessee — Agreed to sign for slot value of $1.795MM
- 35. Los Angeles Dodgers — RHP Kyle Funkhouser, Louisville
- 36. Baltimore Orioles — SS Ryan Mountcastle, Hagerty (FL HS)
Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros
With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.
- Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
- Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
- The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!
Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft
We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.
Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:
- As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
- The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
- Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.