Free Agent Hot Starts
Last year's free agent hot starts included Derek Lowe, Juan Cruz, and Braden Looper, so clearly we shouldn't draw conclusions on one month of the season. Still, let's take a look at free agents off to solid starts in 2010. It'll be interesting to look back at the end of the season and see what holds up.
- Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: Johnson has a .286/.393/.743 line and leads the NL with eight home runs. We named him one of the ten best free agent signings of the offseason, and he's under team control for 2011.
- Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers: He's at .368/.424/.513, and he even played a game in right field.
- Marlon Byrd, Cubs: He sports a .333/.352/.548 line, plus yesterday's no-look catch.
- Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays: He's shown more power than expected with five home runs and a .582 SLG so far.
- Johnny Damon, Tigers: He doesn't have a home run yet, but a .430 OBP will work.
- Scott Podsednik, Royals: He's also homerless, but has a .429 OBP on the young season.
- Bengie Molina, Giants: Like Podsednik, he's racking up hits and it's keeping his OBP over .400.
- Andruw Jones, White Sox: Jones has six home runs in just 61 plate appearances. He's logged 90 innings in the outfield, too. He's only had 51 plate appearances, but Austin Kearns deserves a nod too.
- Miguel Olivo, Rockies: His .314/.357/.647 makes him hard to sit, and the Rockies had enough faith to demote Chris Iannetta.
- Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals: Pudge's .400/.422/.517 start makes his much-maligned contract easier to stomach for now.
- Livan Hernandez, Nationals: Despite a 2.9 K/9, Livan has allowed three runs in 31 innings.
- Brad Penny, Cardinals: He's allowed only three earned runs, three walks, and zero home runs in 28.6 innings. His newfound 53% groundball rate is promising.
- Andy Pettitte, Yankees: He's still rolling at age 37 with four runs allowed in 28 innings.
- Justin Duchscherer, Athletics: He missed all of '09 but has a 1.82 ERA early on in 2010.
- Jon Garland, Padres: Like Duchscherer, the peripherals don't quite match up, but Garland has a 2.57 ERA in his first five starts.
- Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, and Colby Lewis have also gotten the job done so far.
- Matt Capps, Nationals: The Nats have created opportunities, and Capps has taken advantage by saving all ten. The Nationals can retain him for 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player. Plenty of other relievers are having early success, including Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and Jose Valverde.
If The Braves Become Sellers
A veteran sell-off of any kind of difficult to picture in Bobby Cox's final season as Braves manager. We'll explore the possibility anyway, even though the 8-13 Braves have 87% of their season remaining.
Though it'd create a vacancy in next year's rotation, you have to think the Braves would like the flexibility of ridding part of the three years and $45MM owed to Derek Lowe. Similarly, the Braves could free up cash by dealing Kenshin Kawakami, owed $13.33MM over 2010-11. What about Nate McLouth? Already forced into a platoon role, he's owed $12.25MM this season and next.
Billy Wagner would be an attractive trade candidate, though the Braves might prefer to have him around for 2011. Wagner has a $6.5MM club option after the season, though it'll vest with 44 more games finished. Setup man Takashi Saito would be expendable, and decent relievers are hard to come by on the trade market in July.
Other rentals include Troy Glaus, David Ross, and Eric Hinske, all eligible for free agency after the season.
2011 Contract Issues: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates face one contractual option after the season. For closer Octavio Dotel, they can choose a $4.5MM salary or a $500K buyout. Dotel's strikeout and walk rates have been typical so far, but he's allowed 15 hits and three home runs in 9.3 innings.
Akinori Iwamura, Brendan Donnelly, and Bobby Crosby will also be eligible for free agency after the season. They're earning a total of $7.2MM this year. If Dotel's option is declined, the Pirates will have $11.2MM coming off the books.
Increases to players under contract are light, with a total of $2.8MM. The Pirates have a big arbitration class though. First-time candidates include Joel Hanrahan, Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, and possibly Ross Ohlendorf. D.J. Carrasco and Jack Taschner could be second-timers. Zach Duke and Ronny Cedeno are third-time candidates, while Ryan Church and Javier Lopez fit into the fourth-time class. There will be non-tenders in the mix, but it appears that the Pirates will have to raise payroll to retain all their key players. That shouldn't be a problem, since their Opening Day payroll was only $39MM.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Odds & Ends: Smoltz, D’Backs, Kemp, Howard
Links for Wednesday, as the Brewers wonder how to fix Trevor Hoffman…
- GM Frank Wren says not to expect any trades to upgrade the Braves' offense this early in the season, writes David O' Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests the Giants ought to monitor the potential availability of Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez.
- John Smoltz isn't throwing, but he also won't say he's officially retired, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. We looked yesterday at a couple teams that could be fits for Smoltz, if the 42-year-old decides to pitch again.
- MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince writes that the Indians will have to decide on the future of Rule 5 pick Hector Ambriz next week. Ambriz's rehab assignment expires on May 8th.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic talked to Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes, who said he doesn't want to overreact to the team's bullpen struggles. Byrnes seems to want to hold on to his trade chips for now.
- Asked about Matt Kemp by KABC's Peter Tilden, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti expressed his dissatisfaction with the center fielder's baserunning and defense. Said Colletti: "Why is it? Because he got a new deal? I can't tell you." Regarding acquiring pitching, Colletti said it's too early to get into trade talk.
- Joe Posnanski wonders when age will catch up with Ryan Howard.
- Designated hitter is supposed to be an easy position to fill, but ESPN's Jerry Crasnick finds nine teams struggling for offense out of the spot.
Morosi On Washburn, Tigers, Vernon Wells
A few links from Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports…
- MLBTR's Luke Adams summed up the latest on the unsigned starting pitchers yesterday, looking at the latest on Jarrod Washburn, Pedro Martinez, Braden Looper, and John Smoltz. Washburn told Morosi that neither the Dodgers nor the White Sox have shown interest so far. The Sox have gotten ugly performances from Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, and Freddy Garcia, while Dan Hudson has been knocked around in Triple A his last two times out.
- Morosi talked to Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, who said the team isn't looking to sign a free agent hitter despite Carlos Guillen's hamstring strain.
- Morosi chatted with Vernon Wells, who said, "I have no plans on going anywhere" in response to a question about his ability to opt out of his contract after the 2011 season. I doubt Wells' agent at Legacy Sports would recommend abandoning four years and $86MM.
- Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston, in reference to Lyle Overbay, said it wouldn't be right to bury a player who's headed toward free agency.
Draft Pick Compensation Can’t Be Assumed
I recently read an article in which the author considered it a near-certainty that the Phillies would've snagged two solid draft picks had Ryan Howard departed as a free agent after the 2011 season. That seems plausible on the surface – we know the Elias rankings don't use sophisticated numbers, and Howard seems like he would be a Type A lock.
However, a check of the 2008-09 Elias rankings for National League first basemen and outfielders shows that Howard ranked 23rd in the group at 76.296 points. He's a Type A, but the 27th-ranked player, Skip Schumaker, starts off the Type Bs at 69.394.
Several years ago, ESPN's Keith Law revealed that each league's 1B/OF groups are ranked based on five stats: plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, home runs, and runs batted in. Even though Howard tallied 1403 PAs, 93 HR, and 287 RBI over 2008-09, his pedestrian .265 AVG and .349 OBP knocked him well down the rankings. If Howard's 2010-11 production slips, he could easily be a Type B. Elias' formulas might not be the best way of ranking players, but they're part of the fabric of many multi-million dollar decisions. Looking ahead, the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 11th, 2011, and we don't know if the formulas will be revamped.
Even if Howard did get Type A status, would the Phillies have offered arbitration? We've seen plenty of instances where players coming off good seasons were not offered arbitration – Johnny Damon and Randy Wolf are two recent examples. And there's always the chance the player accepts, like Rafael Soriano, Rafael Betancourt, and Carl Pavano did recently.
If a team makes it all the way to the point of a Type A free agent being offered arbitration and declining, there's a chance the draft picks gained aren't great. Look at the Blue Jays, received picks #34 and 80 for Marco Scutaro this year because the Red Sox also signed John Lackey. Scutaro's Elias number of 83.069 was just below Lackey's 83.865 figure. In the most extreme example, the Jays received picks #37 and 104 when Type A free agent A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees a year prior. You're at the mercy of which team signs your free agent.
The point of all of this: you can dream of getting picks #19 and 33 for your big-name departing free agent, like the Astros did for Jose Valverde this year, but many factors can derail the plan along the way.
Heyman On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Werth
The latest hot stove thoughts from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The people Heyman talked to feel that with Ryan Howard averaging $25MM a year starting in 2012, a contract discussion for Albert Pujols has to start at $30MM a year.
- Heyman says that "the belief among skeptics of the deal that [the Howard extension] was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people." Of course, there are hundreds of baseball people, and the ones I've spoken to agree with the skeptics.
- Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs said, "We're just kind of innocent bystanders," noting that the Padres have not made contact about an extension.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris believes his client will be "the premier free agent outfielder" if he doesn't sign an extension. Looking at the list, only Carl Crawford would have an argument. Heyman says there's a "belief around baseball" that Werth will be seeking $100MM. Previously we've heard suggestions of the four-year, $66MM Jason Bay range.
- Heyman says Stephen Strasburg has a contract clause that "permits 100 innings at the major-league level this year." I haven't heard of any clauses of that nature before, but Strasburg and Scott Boras is a powerful pairing.
If The Dodgers Become Sellers
Yes, it's only April 28th and the Dodgers are only four games out in the NL West. But say they continue playing .400-type ball for the next two months…who might we see on the trading block?
Manny Ramirez is owed $20MM this year, though $15MM of it is deferred without interest. Manny has a full no-trade clause. Given the huge salary, any team thinking about acquiring Ramirez would probably not make further concessions to convince him to waive the clause. He'll be 38 next month, but Ramirez still has a game-changing bat. Imagine the White Sox, Mariners, or Athletics renting him for a few months.
You wouldn't expect the Dodgers to have a ton of pitching to offer, as their 4.92 rotation ERA is part of the reason they're in last place. However, Hiroki Kuroda is pitching quite well and is owed a hefty $13MM this year (plus he has no-trade protection). He can become a free agent after the season. Vicente Padilla could also become available, but he's currently on the shelf with a forearm injury. The most intriguing name is Chad Billingsley, the 25-year-old enigma with a 5.40 ERA and two-plus years of team control remaining. He'd potentially have a dozen suitors.
George Sherrill will earn more than $4.5MM in 2011, but teams searching for relief help might not mind. The 33-year-old southpaw will need to put a lid on the free passes before interest picks up, though. The Dodgers probably would not want to create too many holes for the 2011 club, but Ramon Ortiz, Brad Ausmus, Ronnie Belliard, Reed Johnson, Jeff Weaver, and Garret Anderson are on one-year deals and would be expendable.
2011 Contract Issues: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies face two contractual options after the season:
- Lefty reliever J.C. Romero has a $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. The 33-year-old had flexor tendon surgery in October of last year, returning to a big league mound last Friday.
- Backup infielder Juan Castro has a $750K club option with a $50K buyout.
Four more players will be eligible for free agency: Jamie Moyer, Jayson Werth, Chad Durbin, and Jose Contreras. Talks with Werth are currently at an impasse. These four account for $18.625MM in 2010 salaries. If all six players leave, and we include buyouts that will be paid this year to Adam Eaton, Pedro Feliz, and Geoff Jenkins, the Phillies have about $26MM coming off the books.
Raises to players under contract should swallow about $21MM of that freed up money. Roy Halladay has the biggest increase, as his salary rises $4.25MM and the Blue Jays won't be sending $6MM again. Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino also see increases north of $2MM. Arbitration cases are light – Kyle Kendrick and Ben Francisco are first-timers, while Greg Dobbs would fit into the third-time class.
It appears that holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave would give the Phillies a few million bucks to spend. They won't have the flexibility to add top or mid-tier players in the 2010-11 offseason unless they raise payroll or dump a contract via trade.
Which Agency Had The Biggest Offseason?
A week ago we looked at the total free agent dollars brokered by top agencies during the 2009-10 offseason. Today we expand the study to include arbitration contracts and multiyear deals as well. The time period used stops at Opening Day, so several recent deals are not included. Eighteen agencies brokered more than $25MM during the offseason; here's the list:
- CAA: $253.292MM. The Jason Bay, Roy Halladay, and Joe Blanton deals were their biggest. Their total comes from 26 total contracts.
- Octagon: $212.5MM. Big scores: John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, and Franklin Gutierrez. It's not included in the figure here, but it should be noted that including Kenji Johjima, Octagon did almost an extra $15MM in Japan.
- Boras Corporation: $202.23MM. Matt Holliday was Boras' major contract this offseason.
- Shapiro/Maas: $184MM. All Joe Mauer.
- ACES: $164.893MM. The Levinson brothers' deals were more spread out – Chone Figgins, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Marlon Byrd, Jason Marquis, and others.
- SFX: $148.9MM. Justin Verlander was their big one.
- Beverly Hills Sports Council: $132.92MM. Their total includes the most players, at 28. Their biggest: Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Mark Reynolds, and Jose Valverde. With Lincecum and Albert Pujols on the roster, this agency will remain healthy.
- Wasserman Media Group: $105MM. WMG had a pair of decent-sized deals with Randy Wolf and Joel Pineiro.
- Hendricks Sports: $71.76MM. Aroldis Chapman and Huston Street exceeded $20MM each.
- Reynolds Sports Management: $69.65MM. They've got the Upton brothers, and Justin's contract makes up most of the total.
- Sosnick/Cobbe: $61.25MM. Their total is led by Josh Johnson's deal. Though it's not included in the total, Sosnick/Cobbe also landed $2MM worth of deals in Japan for Darrell Rasner and Randy Messenger.
- Peter Greenberg: $47.625MM. Bobby Abreu and Marco Scutaro were the big contributors.
- TWC Sports: $43.1115MM. They landed Tim Hudson's contract, among others.
- LSW Baseball: $35.67MM. Their total is spread among 11 players, none exceeding Kelly Shoppach's $5.55MM extension.
- Legacy Sports: $34.5MM. Contracts for Bobby Jenks and Brad Penny led the way.
- Barry Meister: $28.625MM. Brandon Lyon's $15MM deal was the leader.
- Sexton/Landrum/Williams: $27.5MM. This group was behind Matt Cain's $23MM extension.
- Career Sports: $24.845MM. Mark DeRosa's $12MM pact played a large role.
The figures are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but please contact us if you have any corrections.