It's time to present MLBTR's ten best free agent signings of the offseason. Note that only Major League deals are included. The players are listed in order of contract amount.
- Joel Pineiro, Angels: two years, $18MM. At the advice of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, Pineiro tried a sinker in Spring Training and went on to lead all of baseball in walk and groundball rate. There are concerns over Pineiro's ability to reach 200 innings and succeed without Duncan, but the Angels signed a potential #2-3 starter and didn't take on a lot of risk.
- Adrian Beltre, Red Sox: one year, $10MM. Beltre was confident enough in his abilities this year to turn down a pair of three-year, $24MM offers from other clubs. He's arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game, and he may return to his 25 home run ways in Boston.
- Noel Arguelles, Royals: five years, $7MM. The 20-year-old Cuban lefty is the equivalent of an extra first-round pick for the Royals. True, he's no match for Aroldis Chapman, but he cost a quarter of what the Reds paid.
- Adam LaRoche, Diamondbacks: one year, $6MM. LaRoche should provide Arizona a .350 OBP and .490 SLG at a fair price.
- Orlando Hudson, Twins: one year, $5MM. Even if his defense is slipping, it appears the Twins added a couple of wins here.
- Colby Lewis, Rangers: two years, $5MM. The Rangers weren't the only team to notice Lewis' two years of dominance in Japan, as the A's and Twins also made two-year offers. This was a low-risk, high-reward signing by the Rangers.
- Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: one year, $2.35MM. Johnson was supplanted by Martin Prado as the Braves' starting second baseman last season and signed with Arizona after being non-tendered. His arbitration-eligibility for 2011 is nearly as good as a club option. If Johnson approaches his .273/.351/.443 CHONE projection, he'll be well worth the D'Backs' investment.
- Gregg Zaun, Brewers: one year, $2.15MM. In a world where Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, and Brian Schneider snagged two-year deals, the Brewers got Zaun for one year at a lesser salary, plus a club option. Unlike those catchers, Zaun is able to muster up a .340 OBP.
- Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals: one year, $2MM. Though he may not be ready until May or later, Wang represents the right kind of risk for the Nationals. If he rediscovers a 60% groundball rate, the Nats won't be non-tendering him after the season.
- Felipe Lopez, Cardinals: one year, $1MM. Scott Boras got Lopez $3.5MM coming off a decent '08 season, so he seemed in line for more after a fine '09. However, Lopez tired of waiting around and switched to Beverly Hills Sports Council before signing with the Cards at a steep discount. Utility players and half-season pitchers received larger guarantees.
I think you need to include Andruw Jones in this signed a one year deal for 500k and is absolutely killing it this spring, prolly going to be a starter for the white sox.
I thought the Felipe Lopez signing was amazing. Teams avoided him like the plague. His deal is literally no risk for a guy who’s hit well the past few years and has versatility. He makes less money than guys like Alex Cora, Ramon Vazquez, Juan Uribe, and others.
WHere do you think Dye will end up?
How is John Garland not there? Because the Padres are not a big market team or a playoff contender? Garland was easily one of the better signings in the off season for his talent and contract.
Garland was a finalist for the list.
The chip on your shoulder is bigger than Petco.
Not that you’re wrong.
How is that? Please enlighten me…
Banging the “You’re biased against covering my team or giving them credit because they’re not the Yankees or Red Sox” drum always smells of bitterness. I mean, I think he makes as much sense as most of the guys on the list, but you’re talking about a roughly league average starter signing with a team he won’t help win anything, and you can’t even spell his name. It doesn’t call for a mini-diatribe about your team being covered.
I wasn’t banging the biased coverage or credit to my team drum! I asked a question and made a statement, pretty simple. Obviously I am not the ONLY one who feels this way.
My point was that Garland, who for most of his career, pitching in hitter friendly parks, coming to what some people would call a mediocre division and probably pitching against the #3 starters for the opposing teams will fair much better, especially in the extreme pitcher friendly confines of Petco park.
Also, I challenge your description of Garland as a “roughly league average starter”. A pitcher whose career includes two 18 game winning seasons, playing in Chicago of all places and a life time record of 117-102 is not my idea of an “avg pitcher”. Obviously being away from primarily hitters parks GOING to an extreme pitchers park and eliminating the DH will help his numbers significantly, and should help the Padres win more games.
So, Chien-Ming Wang of the Nationals is going to contribute more in that division to his team, in contrast to the Padres? The guy may not even be ready until May, who knows how long.
Garland was a terrific sign, REGARDLESS of whether or not the team makes the playoffs! I think I conceded that in my initial post. If Garland was signed by ANY TEAM I would have thought the exact same thing!
As far as me making a TYPO on his name, my fathers name is JOHN, obviously I know about him as a player, is that your retort, really..
Also, I question your use of the word diatribe, which implies, an “abusive attack of someone”. What is abusive or unfair about questioning the fact that the “writer” did not include Garland as one of the better free agent signings? Obviously Tim Dierkes did not find my question to be an abusive or unfair attack, as he responded by saying that he considered Jon Garland to be one of the finalists. I believe that indicates your comments were out of line and NOT mine.
Diatribe may be too strong a word, but I meant in the lighter, colloquial sense that you were being kind of didactic. I just read your original post wrong. The second sentence looked sarcastic and bitter in the context of the internet, as I’m sure you can understand.
On Garland, you’re really using wins and losses to evaluate him? He’s gone 117-102, sure, but that’s actually not a bad reflection of the teams he’s pitched for as a whole. The best attribute he has is that he racks up enough innings that his record is most likely to match his team’s.
Mostly, I just think it’s weird to sweat your guy *not* making this list. It’s sort of an arbitrary list of OK signings from the second and third tier of a really weak free agent market. Maybe two or three of these guys are likely to impact their teams in any slightly significant way, contenders or no.
John Lackey?
John Lackey is the highest paid pitcher on the Boston Red Sox. How exactly does he fit into this “bargain but really good” group?
If Pineiro carries what he learned in StL to Anaheim, he might out-WAR Lackey for 9M/year.
Where did it say anything about bargains in this article? Did I miss it. If so never mind.
Fair enough on it not EXPLICITLY saying “Bargain”, but “signing best pitcher on free agent market for pretty much what you’d expect him to get on the free agent market that 20/30 teams wouldn’t be willing to pay” doesn’t really come across as a “best signing” when you compare value to actual payout.
You’ll note Matt Holliday is also not on this list. Also Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Jose Valverde, Marco Scutaro, others.
You are right. Lackey is no bargain. But I am hopeful that he will allow the red sox a chance to win the division. I never mind when other people spend lots of money to make me happy.
I like the list Tim. One thing I would have added is a short summary of the potential incentive payments not included in the guaranteed money. Some of these incentives can total more than the base payments shown (e.g. Wang can get an additional $3M). Also some are more attainable than others – and some are contingent on health/availability of other players at their position.
Might help in producing more comparable apples to apples evaluations.
That’s a great suggestion. For example, Wang won’t be a good signing UNLESS he pitches well. And if he pitches well then his cost goes up. Same argument for guys like Bedard or Harden.
As an Angels fan I would swap Pineiro for Cameron. Joel will most likely sport an ERA in the 4.50 range. Not bad for a #5 starter but I don’t consider him a bargain signing either. Now if Pineiro can pitch for the Angels like he did for the Cards then he becomes the very best signing. I just don’t hold out any hope for that.
note to self: when Boston that signs a corner infielder that hasn’t put up an OBP over .330 since 2004 to a $10 million deal, it’s called a great deal.
Troy Glaus will be on this list at the end of the year.
Might have something to do with the fact that the guy is playing a position he has never played and is coming off a year in which he suffered a major injury (again).
We could go all day with the list of guys who have great upside but carry tremendous risk. Glaus would definitely be on that list. Harden, Dutch, Bedard, Wang, Branyan, P Martinez, Andruw Jones, Sheets, Huff, etc. Any one of those guys could be All-Stars in 10. Any one of those guys could contribute nothing.
I look at the list and see guys that aren’t injury prone. Most have a track record of being starters capable of contributing. Some are coming off big years (Lopez, Pineiro) while others are just solid players year in, year out (Hudson). So, while Glaus certainly has the potential to outperform everyone on the list, he could also underperform everyone on that list.
It was just 11 months ago that the internet was ablaze with Epstein for President posts after scoring Baldelli, Smoltz, and Penny. Or Johnson signing with the Giants. Point is, these high risk guys usually DO NOT work out.
Some how Troy Glaus didn’t make the list?
Also a finalist, but I wasn’t quite ready to commit.
This list just proves to me how weak this year’s Free Agent class was, frankly. And that Jon Garland almost made the list says it further. There are questions and doubts about almost every guy on this list. I do think Johnson and Lopez both may be the best bargains of the bunch, though.
No Jason Bay? That was a steal or the Mets at that price and for those years. That’s a much better signing than an of the garbage on that list.
Felipe Lopez 2009: 4.6 WAR
Jason Bay 2009: 3.5 WAR
Difference in guaranteed contract value committed: $65 million.
and yet, minus budget constriant, all would perfer Bay over Lopez.
And which team, other than the Yankees and Red Sox, go through an offseason “minus budget constriant?” That’s a pretty big “minus”…
And this is where I think that WAR is becoming a bit of an overused stat, similar to ERA or batting average. Sure, Lopez had a much higher WAR. But nearly every team would rather have Bay (minus budget constraint, fine. But still, ask an executive of any of the 30 major league teams which of the two they’d rather have on their team if they had to choose, and I bet you the overwhelming majority would choose Bay.) Jason Bay is a power hitter, a strong middle of the lineup guy. He did very well as the #4 hitter for one of the strongest offenses last year with Boston. Even on an extreme powerhouse such as the Yankees, he’s in the 3-5 slots. He’s a home run and RBI guy. Sure, his defense isn’t great. Sure, some of the peripherals are pretty weak. But this is my point; some aspects of the game, such as power hitting, are more highly valued. It takes a certain type of player to be a strong cleanup hitter, and that’s what Bay is. Lopez is a strong all-around guy, but he’s not the one you want to see come up to bat in a tense, need to hit a big one, type of situation. As valuable as Lopez is, that factor in Bay’s game is what makes him such a big draw.
Your point is extremely valid. I agree that you cannot use WAR as the only method of comparison here (trust me, I’m a Giants fan and could’ve used Bay’s injection of power into the lineup more than anyone). My point with the simple comparison that I made is that I don’t think there is a $15.5M per year difference between those two players and I view this top ten list as who is going to provide the most value per dollar of the total contract. Combine that with the fact that the Mets are committed to paying this exorbitant salary for 3 (and possibly 4) more years when he is going to be required to play the field and cost them runs in that aspect of the game, I just think it is silly to say that the signing of Jason Bay is better than anyone named on this list.
To see Pineiro on this list is quite comical.
I don’t think you can really say that without seeing how the season turns out for him. As others have already mentioned, if he pitches similar to last season then he is a steal. If he regresses and puts up a mid 4’s era with mediocre peripherals then he is an overpaid #5 starter.
Either way, I don’t think you can consider it comical when you have no idea which way his season will go.
I think Aroldis Chapman should be on there. 6 years $30 mill really isn’t that much money in this day and age, and it looks like at worst he’ll be a decent reliever, at best a Cy Young candidate. And he’s not even old enough to drink yet.
Great investment by the Reds, and it shouldn’t bust their budget even if he turns out to be a total bust
I agree that Chapman can become a high caliber pitcher, but if he turns out to be a “decent reliever” then 5 mil a year isn’t a very good deal. (Note that I do like the signing by the Reds)
It’s hard to put a guy on this list when he’d never pitched on American soil against high level competition and they had to double the price of the most expensive draft pick ever to get him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m optimistic about him, but hard to slot him into this list.
I honestly don’t think any of those players will have a major impact, they are all very close to replacement level talent where similar valued players could have been picked up on waivers. I guess as someone else pointed out, it goes to show you how week the free agent class was.
Its like 4 comments up that Jason_F showed that Lopez had a 4.6 WAR last season, and it was higher than Jason Bay’s, I doubt you could get anyone that good on waivers.
I realize that, but I don’t project Lopez to continue that kind of success, and this is based on what a player will do this season, not what they did last season.
Oh, and where’s Russ Branyan? The Indians got him for a song. Yea, he has a bad back and can’t play defense, but he can still give you 20-25 home runs.
I thought Jack Cust was a good value signing as well and a decent shot to rebound. Jonny Gomes as well.
Chien-Ming Wang will start the season on the dl coming off of surgery. hasn’t been the same since he got crushed in the playoffs a couple yrs ago but he is one of the better free agent signing. haha
no nick johnson for 1 yr. 5.5 mill full time dh?
John Lackey is the highest paid pitcher on the Boston Red Sox. How exactly does he fit into this “bargain but really good” group?
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You’d be right if the headline read “bargain free agents” but it didn’t, it’s supposedly a list of the best free agent signings. Lackey was expensive but he gives the Red Sox an outstanding rotation, if he stays healthy he will likely prove to be worth the money. Probably will outperform A.J. Burnett whose salary is comparable.
I’m admittedly biased but I also think Bay was a great signing for the Mets, the only real highlight of the off-season for them. Again, he’s expensive but if he stays healthy he’s going to help them immensely. I agree with the list if it’s strictly bargain signings, but a high-priced free-agent can also be a good signing (Texeira, Sabbathia, Ibanez).
i agree overall but there are two reasons i do not like the Bay signing: his plays atrocious defense and it will be even worse in cavernous citifield and the mets needed to spend that money on a pitcher
trebek29: I agree his defense is a concern but, let’s face it, that’s not why they ponied up the money. They desperately needed a reliable HR and RBI bat in the middle of that lineup given the quick demise of Delgado. If Beltran comes back and others stay healthy he makes everyone else a tougher out while adding back some badly needed offensive numbers.
Given that Delgado’s and Wagner’s salaries came off the books, they’re really not taking a financial hit by signing Bay and the potential dividends are big. When Beltran has a power/RBI bat behind him he becomes even more dangerous. Wright will benefit too.
i again agree but do you think it would have been better for the mets to spend this money on starting pitching? remember they signed bay before beltran and reyes suffered their most recent ailments. assuming both those 2 would be playing on opening day back then, your lineup would have included, obviously, reyes, wright, beltran, castillo, and franceour, who are all good offensively and the first 3 names are superstars. on the other hand, your rotation is, for lack of a better term, a complete joke.
Yeah, agree, sighhhh … I would’ve preferred they go after Lackey first. They have the money and paired with Santana would’ve been an excellent 1-2. I like Bay a lot and had hoped they would package several players and prospects for at least another starter — either Oswalt, who they almost had a couple of years ago in a three-way trade that was blown up by Baltimore, or Arroyo who was presumably available going into the off-season even before Reds signed Aroldis Chapman.
I’ve been very vocal on this site throughout the off-season about how the Mets rotation scares no one and how it’s yet another delusional exercise by the front office — akin to convincing themselves that bullpen full of Heilmans, Sosas and Schoeneweises would ever get anyone out.
I think Maine is a question mark but worth sticking with. Pelfrey is woefully inconsistent and, in my opinion, needs a smaller market with less attention. Perez just plain sucks.
more or less yes which is why i think the bay signing was by far one of the worst of the offseason not b/c of what he represents, but with what else the team needed, which is pitching. i think that is augmented b/c ike davis and thole are going to fill dire needs for you in the not to distant future and spending any bit of money on catchers or first basemen, which the mets did albeit very minimal, was still a waste.
Well, that’s definitely a legitimate way to look at it. I come at it a different way. The team filled a glaring need in the middle of the lineup. That they chose to delude themselves about the rotation – by either not signing a free agent pitcher or making a deal for a proven starter – is something I see as a larger inherent problem than just one off-season.
For instance, everyone watching the Mets knew in early ’07 that their bullpen was weak but the problem wasn’t addressed until after the ’08 season. Two full seasons of trusting pitchers who clearly couldn’t pitch cost the team two playoff berths, likely two division titles.
The Mets front office operates in the twilight zone. They address one problem with a Johan Santana but ignore the bullpen (which, incidentally, blew 7 leads handed to them by Santana — they hold half those leads and he likely wins another Cy Young). This year they addressed the middle of the order bat problem with Bay but ignored starting pitching.
The Bay signing, like Santana, will prove to be good for them — maybe better than good. But by itself is not enough. This is bigger than one signing or one off-season. I’m telling you, they’re delusional.
Pineiro only struck out 105 guys last year and 33 of them were Pirates, Padres or Astros. Of the last six seasons, he’s had one very good full year. I wouldn’t bet my mortgage on him being a 2 or 3 in the big boy league.
wow your using STRIKEOUTS to measure pitching statistics?? that has to be the most arbitrary way to measure a pitchers performance, second only to the infamous “win-loss stat.”
does it really matter how a pitcher gets a hitter out as long as he gets out….
anyways, pineiro threw 200+ innings, walked only 27 batters last season, made 30+starts, led the majors in shutouts, had a sub 1.2WHIP, and gave up a total of 11 homeruns the whole season. that is deserving of a 2/16 deal.
oh yeah and he also led the majors in groundball/flyball ratio which i would prefer over someone who leads the majors in strikeouts. the last part is just an opinion.
Then name a guy who’s had sustained success with a strikeout rate that low in recent years. A couple of years of Westbrook here, a couple of years of Wang there. But no one you would reliably call a 2 or 3. This is not at all like win-loss arguments. If you don’t miss bats, your margin of error is too small. The really successful groundball guys of recent years, like Halladay or Lowe, still strike guys out. Strikeouts aren’t everything, but if you can’t even strike out five guys per nine in the national league, you’re a tough bet to be a middle-front of the rotation guy on an AL contender.
Wang could end up being the best signing of the off-season
He won’t win 20 games with the Nats lack of consistency at the plate but I could see him with 16-17 wins and a 4 ERA which is fantastic for them
He has good stuff
Joel Piniero wtf……
I don’t buy that any of these guys deserve to be “best” until we are well into the season. On paper, one can make a case for any of these as well as other as best free agent signing. So far, there are no bad signings but given the realities of baseball, some of these guys are likely to be on the “worst” list come October.
What about the signing of the one the best defensive, and top of the order players in baseball by the Mariners Chone Figgins? How does that not make the top 10? Pretty ridiculous.
None of the biggest money guys are on here.