Destrade: Red Sox Won Matsuzaka Bid
RotoWorld has an Orestes Destrade report for ESPN that claims the Red Sox won the Daisuke Matsuzaka bid for about $42MM. I think we can be pretty confident that the Lions will accept it.
The next step, of course, is getting him signed.
UPDATE: Peter Gammons is reporting a $42MM bid as well.
McAdam: Red Sox Matsuzaka Rumor Probably Accurate
Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal spoke to several baseball sources, and learned that Buster Olney’s report of a $38-45MM Red Sox bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka was "probably accurate." Not something Yankee fans wanted to hear.
Newsday’s Ken Davidoff spoke to sources with connections to both New York clubs who indicated that neither team expects to win the bid.
Abraham On Matsuzaka: “Calm Down”
Peter Abraham, Yankees beat writer for The Journal News, is telling us all to relax a little bit in his blog. He later checked in again after talking to Brian Cashman and says the Yankees haven’t heard anything about Matsuzaka yet. Other interesting bits from Abraham’s fine blog:
– I quote: "The Japanese papers literally have people standing outside of the team offices waiting to get the news [on Matsuzaka]."
– Andy Pettitte‘s wife doesn’t seem to like the idea of a return to the Yanks.
– Carl Pavano and Luke Scott carry guns.
–
Olney: Red Sox Placed Top Matsuzaka Bid?
A little while ago, Buster Olney reported that the Red Sox may have won the Daisuke Matsuzaka bid with an amount between $38MM and $45MM.
Also, please email me if you can read Taiwanese. And yes, I might mean Mandarin. I can be ignorant sometimes. Don’t take offense. Anyway, I am tracking down a possible Matsuzaka/Yankees story.
UPDATE: Many kind folks have written in to help translate the above Yahoo article. The general consensus is that the sources and reporting quality are subpar in this case and the article should be ignored as any sign that the Yankees have won the bid.
UPDATE 2: Olney updated the above link to include info from a source that the Rangers may have bid $22MM.
Healey: Red Sox Like Heilman, Milledge
Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball has a new but familiar trade rumor for us: it appears that the Red Sox would like to acquire Aaron Heilman to be their closer next year. In addition, Theo Epstein and Co. may have their eye on Lastings Milledge. It could be the makings of a Manny Ramirez trade, if the Mets want to pay Ramirez’s $39MM salary over the next two seasons.
Healey was not able to confirm this info from multiple sources, but has faith in his Boston source here.
Manny’s contract may be slightly less daunting than it looks. That’s because $8MM of the $31MM is deferred and will be paid out in $1.94MM doses over 2011-2026. I believe that is the first time MLBTradeRumors has referenced the year 2026.
Red Sox Interested In Barajas?
I was clearing out my inbox a little bit when I noticed a rumor I haven’t mentioned yet on the site.
According to a WEEI chat with Sean McAdam from early October, the Red Sox are targeting free agent catcher Rod Barajas to back up Jason Varitek. McAdam mentioned that Barajas’s ability to catch the knuckleball is attractive the Boston.
Barajas will be 31 next year. He hit .256/.298/.410 this year, showing little plate discipline but decent power for his position. You can see the other free agent catchers here.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.
2007 Boston Red Sox
Recently, I took a look at how the 2007 Blue Jays might spend their money this winter. Let’s give the Red Sox the same treatment.
Under contract for 2007:
Expected 2007 payroll: $120-140MM (Olney)
C – Jason Varitek – $9MM
1B – Kevin Youkilis – $0.4MM
2B – Dustin Pedroia – 0.3MM
SS –
3B – Mike Lowell – $9MM
LF – Manny Ramirez – $18MM
CF – Coco Crisp – $3.5MM
RF – Wily Mo Pena – $2.5MM, Eric Hinske – $5.625MM
DH – David Ortiz – $12.5MM
SP – Curt Schilling – $13MM
SP – Josh Beckett – $6MM
SP – Tim Wakefield – $4MM
SP – Jonathan Papelbon – $0.35MM
SP –
SP – Matt Clement – $9.5MM
SP – Jon Lester – $0.35MM
RP –
RP – Julian Tavarez – $3.1MM
RP – Craig Hansen – $1MM
RP – Manny Delcarmen – $0.35MM
RP –
RP –
RP – Craig Breslow – $0.3MM
The Red Sox have about $100MM committed by my estimate; you can add in a few more million in case they hang on to Hee Seop Choi or Carlos Pena.
The team’s decision with Jonathan Papelbon will be interesting because it will determine the area of pitching on which they need to focus. If he goes to the rotation, the team can get by without a major free agent signing. I’m assuming Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, and Papelbon enter spring training healthy. The team could use spot starters like Kyle Snyder to fill the fifth spot until one of Matt Clement or Jon Lester is ready to step in.
Taking Papelbon out of the bullpen leaves us with Julian Tavarez and a cast of even bigger question marks. The free agent market offers no reassurances. The Red Sox can bring back guys like Keith Foulke, Chad Bradford, Alan Embree, or Mike Timlin, but those are expensive gambles. They can risk millions on Danys Baez, Eric Gagne, Bob Wickman, or Joe Borowski. As I mentioned before, a trade for Brad Lidge might make sense in this scenario. Boston is going to have to stockpile relief pitching depth somehow. One outside the box solution would be to go after Japanese closer Hirotoshi Ishii.
I figure the club can go with Dustin Pedroia at second base to save some cash, making shortstop the only obvious remaining hole. Alex Gonzalez would be no worse a solution than he was last year. Otherwise there’s Craig Counsell or maybe overpaying for Julio Lugo. The answer here won’t be pretty.
As far as trades go, speculation has been that the Red Sox will attempt to unload some of Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp, and Matt Clement. This is where Theo Epstein has the chance to be creative and find some relievers for cheap. Crisp and Clement would be selling low, so the Red Sox could wait until they show something in ’07 before making a deal.
Lowell’s had a nice bounceback season; he’s been a touch above league average for his position. Given a weak free agent 3B class the Red Sox might get some value back by taking on a portion of his $9MM salary. The Sox could use Kevin Youkilis at third base and then try some combo of Hinske, Choi, and Pena at first. The Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, or Padres could match up in a Lowell trade.
If ownership really does want to expand the payroll past $120MM, they could make another attempt to bring Roger Clemens in as a midseason reinforcement. Buster Olney, for one, sees this happening.
Red Sox Should Trade For Lidge
Given Jonathan Papelbon‘s recent hints about starting in 2007, there’s a lot of hubbub about who might close for the Red Sox next season.
Let me preface this by saying that I agree with Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver: Papelbon should remain a closer. His utter dominance in relief, the taxing nature of his splitter, the open question about his ability to throw 200 innings. Why risk it? As Silver says, "A great closer is as valuable as all but the very best starters, once we properly account for the effects of leverage."
But say the Red Sox do use Papelbon as a starter in 2007 (I’m not anywhere near convinced they will). Who’s going to pitch the ninth inning in Boston? It’s really not their style to pursue any of these guys. Only Eric Gagne has the potential to be elite, so the Boston papers are throwing his name around. But let’s not forget that Gagne has thrown all of 15.3 innings over the last two seasons. He’s a very risky signing, especially if he would require an inflated offer to leave L.A.
The better solution, in my mind, is to try to trade for Brad Lidge. Lidge is still healthy and it would be a buy low situation. It wouldn’t be the first time the Red Sox have looked at acquiring him. Lidge is still racking up the strikeouts, though his control has slipped to a dangerous level. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2008 season.
Whether or not the Red Sox target Lidge, relying on one of the available free agent closers doesn’t seem like their style. They gave Keith Foulke a big contract after 2003, but Foulke was one of the game’s dominant closers at the time. There’s no similar free agent option this year. How about a creative solution: give the job to a starter? Matt Clement, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Kerry Wood, or Randy Wolf could surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot.
Julio Lugo Considering Mets
Word comes today from the New York Post that free agent infielder Julio Lugo grew up a Mets fan and will "definitely" consider the club if they’re interested. He’s open to second base or shortstop for his new team.
Last year, Lugo’s age 29 season, looked like a career year for the shortstop. He hit .295/.362/.403 and was the fifth best shortstop in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus. This season, in an injury-shortened 72 games with the Devil Rays, Lugo hit .308/.373/.498. All three marks are career bests.
At the trading deadline, the Dodgers sent promising young prosect Joel Guzman to the Devil Rays for Lugo. Lugo’s been a terrible hitter for L.A. while playing 2B, 3B, and even a little OF. It was a curious trade for Los Angeles.
As the easy choice for the best shortstop on the market, Lugo should command upwards of four years and $40MM. It would be surprising to see the Mets pay that kind of money for a second baseman, so Lugo would probably have to give a hometown discount to become a Met. Several teams are going to entertain the possibility of Lugo as their next shortstop. Possibilities include the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds. The smart money is on the Red Sox or Jays.
There was some ugliness involving Lugo and his wife in 2003. The Astros instantly demoted Lugo after he reportedly assaulted his wife. He was later found innocent after Mabely Lugo changed her story.