Lining Up For Shealy
It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.
The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.
Then there’s the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn. It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system.
It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.
The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.
One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.
Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment). He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.
Craig Hansen A Starter?
A few more rumors out of Boston:
Is Craig Hansen developing a third pitch so that the Red Sox can use him in the rotation? Could be, according to my source. They’ll wait and see what comes of David Wells‘s rehab start first, however. Given that Hansen suffered from a tired arm last year, the Red Sox will have to be extra careful if they try it.
My source also corrected my Dustin Pedroia speculation, saying that while the club is not happy with Pedroia as a shortstop, they will have no problem using him in place of Mark Loretta if need be. Loretta has four hits in his last eight at-bats, so he may be coming around.
Do The Red Sox Need Izturis?
It is apparent that Dodgers shortstop Cesar Izturis is available, as the Dodgers don’t have an opening for him at shortstop. I would think that the overall health/performance shakiness of the entire infield would be enough for L.A. to keep Izturis around as a backup all season.
But the rumors persist, the main one being that the Red Sox are interested. I have to wonder why. The team already has a slick-fielding, walk-allergic shortstop, and his name is Alex Gonzalez. I admit, Gonzalez had a terrible April with the bat. But he’s had similar months in his career, so why not see if he can shake it off and hit his usual .240 with decent pop? That’s all that was expected in the first place.
Now, if the Red Sox were jonesing to acquire, say, Julio Lugo, I’d understand. A healthy Lugo would be worth a good three wins in the standings compared to Gonzo. But Cesar Izturis is a .261/.295/.338 career hitter, and he’s signed through 2007. Even if Gonzalez tanks and Izturis is himself, the team’s gain is minimal. The Dodgers are going to want something decent in return for Izturis, so why bother? They already gave up something decent to reacquire Tim Wakefield‘s personal catcher.
Pedroia Falling Out of Favor?
A source out of Boston had a little nugget about Red Sox second base/shortstop prospect Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia, by the way, is the 11th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus.
My source tells me that Pedroia is "falling out of favor with the Sox brass." Apparently the Red Sox think he’s gotten way too big and is too slow to play shortstop.
Pedroia has come back from a shoulder strain to play shortstop for Boston’s Triple A affiliate. He was moved to second base last year, but the Hanley Ramirez trade resulted in a switch back to short. The 22 year-old is hitting .269/.367/.385 for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 52 ABs.
You have to be worried about Pedroia’s lack of power at the Triple A level , dating back to last year. Nonetheless, BP projects Pedroia to hit .290/.362/.450 in the Majors this year. My guess is that Pedroia is showcased in the big leagues within a month’s time. He could serve as a major young trading chip for Boston this summer.
Mirabelli Back to Boston?
Word is that Doug Mirabelli is currently on a charter plane to Boston from San Francisco. Apparently this one is all over Dennis and Callahan and Dale and Holley on WEEI.
No word yet on who the Red Sox would send over to get Tim Wakefield‘s personal catcher back.
UPDATE: The Red Sox are trying to get Mirabelli to Fenway by gametime tonight.
ESPN Deportes: Ortiz Nearing Extension
Thanks to reader Nick for the tip. A rough translation of this article:
David Ortiz is nearing a four-year, $50MM contract extension with the Red Sox. The source has family ties to Ortiz. Ortiz’s agency, SFX declined to comment.
Who Could Use Melvin Mora?
Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP. He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming. Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that. Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.
Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that. He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus. Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games. That included 115 HRs.
I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st. If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.
Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point. While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.
Red Sox: They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse. But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability. Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.
Twins: Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique. He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field. Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock. Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.
Braves: Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense. It would also help keep Chipper healthy. I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.
Phillies: The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now. The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot. There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.
Juan Gonzalez Tries Out For Rockies
The Juan Gonzalez saga is fairly amusing for a lazy Friday afternoon, so let me take another crack at translating a new El Nuevo Dia article.
Yesterday, Juan Gonzalez tried out for the Colorado Rockies in Puerto Rico. He’s reportedly in magnificent physical condition. That report has been passed along to Colorado’s front office, but there is no agreement as of yet.
Gonzalez tried out for the Athletics on Monday, and worked for the Red Sox and Cubs previously. Despite reports that Gonzalez was due in Red Sox camp this week, a close friend of Gonzalez’s told El Nuevo Dia that he never signed a contract with them. His agent has negotiated with the Sox, but he’s still a free agent. There may have been a verbal agreement in place prior to the Wily Mo Pena trade.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo
It’s official: the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. This is an intriguing trade.
The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo. It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation. Eric Milton is terrible but well paid. Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.
So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings. This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder. Not a great mix.
You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox. This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.
Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena. Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him. Here’s a look at some projections for Pena. I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs. For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.