Aubrey Huff To Houston?
Got a good one today. I admit I was skeptical at first, but an independent source verified the rumor.
It seems that Arizona, Houston, Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay have some sort of deal in the works. It is known that Jayson Werth and Aubrey Huff are involved, but the other players have not yet been revealed. Apparently Werth is headed to Tampa Bay or Arizona – my sources differ in opinion here.
Both sources indicated that Aubrey Huff will be joining the Astros. Such a move would certainly cloud up the Astros’ 1B/OF situation. They’d have Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Preston Wilson, and Huff. We know that Bagwell may not be able to play, and Lane and Taveras are trade candidates. Huff mainly played right field and first base for the Devil Rays this year.
UPDATE: It now looks to be a three team deal with the Diamondbacks, Devil Rays, and Astros involved (Werth is out of the picture). Huff to the Astros is still the main piece, and the deal supposedly is contingent on Bagwell retiring and freeing up the insurance money. That’s all for now.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Preston Wilson Projection
Wondering how new Astro Preston Wilson will perform in 2006? Check out the latest RotoAuthority projection.
Miguel Tejada backed off on his trade demand. Translation: the Orioles didn’t find an offer they liked.
Read about the Diamondbacks’ new philosophy towards team defense under Josh Byrnes over at Baseball Prospectus.
Some lesser known breakout prospects over at Baseball Analysts.
Latest Astros Buzz
Today we’ve got some Astros info for you to digest.
According to an emailer, Richard Justice recently spoke with Astros GM Tim Purpura on Sports Radio 610. Here’s what came out of the discussion:
The Astros aren’t expecting much from Jeff Bagwell, surprise surprise. The main concern is, of course, his inability to throw. In Brian McTaggart’s article in the Houston Chronicle today, he mentions that Bagwell "will have his shoulder analyzed next week by respected orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham." Expect Bags to be relegated to pinch-hitting duties given the Preston Wilson signing. I don’t have anything new on the Astros’ interest in White Sox righthander Jose Contreras, but Willy Taveras could be expendable given Wilson’s ability to play center field.
Purpura spoke to Roger Clemens two days ago at Minute Maid. Clemens has not cleaned out his locker in at the ballpark. I still believe that Clemens will return to the Astros in mid-June.
Today in the Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly mention that "The Red Sox, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs appear to be the leaders in the Tejada sweepstakes." Adam Everett and Brandon Backe are certainly available on the Astros, but it’ll obviously require a lot more than that to get Miguel Tejada. Brad Lidge won’t be involved in any deal for the shortstop.
I’ll see if I can dig up any additional info on these topics.
Astros Discussing Jose Contreras
First off, my apologies for the confusion in my last post. Let’s set the record straight about this Astros/White Sox thing.
My source wasn’t referring to the Astros’ interest in Miguel Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. Baltimore likes the righthander, but Houston covets him as well. The Sox are talking to the Astros currently, but have no interest in Brad Lidge. Their reasoning: they believe in the young, cheap Bobby Jenks. The Sox also have concerns about Lidge’s future health after piling on the innings as well as his impending large salary. That all makes sense; the Sox have no reason to acquire another closer.
Another clarification: the player the Sox are considering for Contreras is Willy Taveras. The additional prospects are unknown. Given the massive salary gap between Jose Contreras and Taveras, this deal would free up cash to be used for reinforcements at the trading deadline. As mentioned before, the White Sox are willing to go up to a $105MM payroll.
Some more quality tidbits on the White Sox’s interest in Miguel Tejada:
Chicago’s offers are non-negotiable. If Tejada is traded, the deal will be completed within the next two weeks. Other interested clubs are still submitting and refining their proposals.
Miguel Tejada Trade: Update
Some more quality details on the possible Miguel Tejada trade:
First issue: White Sox payroll. My source is saying that adding Tejada would not be a problem – the team’s board of directors are willing to take the payroll up to $105 million. Should the Orioles accept one of their offers, they’ll still have flexibility for more additions at the July trading deadline as needed.
UPDATE: There was a miscommunication between my source and I about this deal. He was not telling me that the Astros were in on Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. I’ll go into more detail on this in a separate post. Sorry for the confusion.
Astros Update: Garland, Garciaparra
Good stuff today from my main Astros guy.
First off, the Astros are talking to the White Sox about what it would take to acquire Jon Garland. It’s well known that Garland is on the market, and the Astros do have some interesting young arms that are sure to come up in the discussion. Southpaw Troy Patton had a nice run in high Class A this year, and righty Jason Hirsh righted the ship at Double A Corpus Christi. Both pitchers are very highly regarded by Baseball America. Assuming a well-rested Roger Clemens rejoins the Astros in June, the team could once again rest its playoff hopes on starting pitching.
My source also mentioned that Nomar Garciaparra has narrowed his suitors down to the Dodgers and Astros. I admit, the Astros didn’t cross my mind back in September as a possible destination for the game’s current best available free agent (Clemens excluded). I still think a two-year deal is in order.
Willy Taveras Projection
Something for you fantasy baseball types to consider: can Willy Taveras match Juan Pierre in 2006? My projection is up at RotoAuthority.
Astros Or Retirement For Clemens
Plenty of buzz going around about Roger Clemens entertaining new teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rangers for the 2006 season. According to my Astros source, however, Clemens is again choosing between the Astros and retirement.
Houston Chronicle writer Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Brad Ausmus is very close to signing a two-year pact with the Astros. It’s well known that Clemens does not want to pitch for any other catcher, and the Red Sox tried in vain to lure Ausmus out East. Boston was never really an option for Ausmus, who wants to be a starter and considered only San Diego as an alternative.
According to my Astros source, look for Clemens to return to Houston and start taking advantage of some of his previously negotiated perks. In 2006, Clemens would skip more road trips to stay with his family. Look for Roger to pull a few strings and try to get the Astros to promote his son Koby to the Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A club located in Texas). Third baseman Koby has played just nine games at Class A with the Tri City ValleyCats in New York. In addition, Roger has a ten-year agreement to work for the Astros after retirement to work with the club’s young players.
After pitching in the World Baseball Classic, expect Clemens to take a few months off and return to the Astros around mid-June. His salary will certainly be less than $18MM, and the team will hopefully have acquired the improved offensive players Clemens desires.
Brad Lidge Could Be Available
I first heard the Astros might consider trading Brad Lidge a few days ago, when Dayn Perry tossed it out there. Perry mentioned that Lidge could go to Atlanta, and here’s what I said:
"Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market? One who no one even knew was on the market? I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz. I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus."
I still feel that the Braves are the frontrunner. Lidge doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2008 season, so it’s not like the Astros would make this deal to snag whatever they could get before Lidge departs for the big bucks. Whatever team gets Lidge gets him for three solid years and will pay a below-market salary for it.
Given that, it makes sense that the Astros would look to improve their team now and not in two years. So Saltalamacchia and Andrus might not be the right kind of players for this deal. Major League ready lefty starter Chuck James might be a start in a Lidge deal. Anthony Lerew would also fit the bill. The dealbreaker, though, might be Marcus Giles. Giles will be a free agent after 2007, and the Astros can’t expect to run Craig Biggio out there forever.
John Lopez wrote about trading Lidge in an article for the Houston Chronicle yesterday. Lopez’s logic against the Orioles and Reds makes sense. Those teams are not a top-flight closer away from competing. But Lopez also dimisses the Boston Red Sox simply because Manny wouldn’t fit with Houston.
I think the Red Sox could become major players for Lidge, but Ramirez doesn’t have to be involved. Even outside of Andy Marte, the club has enough young talent to at least get a meeting with Astros GM Tim Purpura. Pitchers Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, and Craig Hansen can be contributers in 2006 and beyond, and Boston would love a rock-solid alternative to Keith Foulke.
Lopez goes on to write that the Phillies look like the only legitimate possibility for a deal. Obviously I disagree with that. It doesn’t make sense for the Phils to leave a gaping hole in their offense in order to craft a Yankee-like bullpen.
What other teams have a strong need at closer and the talent to swing a deal for Lidge?
Scanning the Closer Watch, I don’t see any. The Orioles and Reds remain dark horses, but the Red Sox and Braves seem to be the best fits.
What do you think?