Rosenthal’s Latest: Crede, Willits, Rivera, Belliard
Ken Rosenthal checks in with all kinds of hot stove info.
- Continuing on yesterday’s post regarding Joe Crede and the Dodgers , Rosenthal reports that a source close to Dodgers management explained that the team trading for a third baseman like Crede or Brandon Inge is "all about the budget and whether [owner Frank] McCourt will allow them to add money." Rosenthal continues to point out that Crede is a better deal than Inge in terms of their contracts, and that Crede could also be more attractive to Dodgers management because the White Sox might be willing to trade for prospects, while the Tigers are looking for immediate bullpen help.
- The Mariners had been in the market for a veteran right-handed hitting outfielder, but have opted instead for in-house options. It seems Coco Crisp could have filled a need. Sure, he’s a switch-hitter, but his splits suggest it could have made some sense. If they didn’t have to part with too much, it might have worked.
- The Angels have a surplus in the outfield — Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits — and Rosenthal reports that Willits is now untouchable according to the Angels (two teams have inquired after him recently). The two are blocked by Vladimir Guerrero, Garrett Anderson, Torii Hunter, and Gary Matthews Jr. While it sounds as if they’d prefer to move Rivera (a free agent at season’s end), it’s hard to imagine that they’d send Willits to the minors (he has options remaining) if they don’t find a good match for Rivera (Umpbump Coley suggested the Padres or Mets yesterday). As Coley pointed out, the Angels have numerous banged up pitchers, and there are a number of teams out there who are going to be starting center fielders with inferior skill sets compared to Willits (as Tim pointed out a few days ago).
- The Nationals are dealing with a surplus at second base, and Rosenthal believes that Ron Belliard is the most logical piece to move, what with his $1.6MM salary this season, and his $1.9MM for next. Rosenthal pinpoints the Rockies (perhaps too little range on the right side with Jeff Baker and Todd Helton), Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox as potential trade partners.
On The Block: Coco Crisp And Juan Rivera
Coco Crisp isn’t too happy about his competition for Boston’s center field job. Today, the Boston Herald reports that Coco is calling the situation "bogus." Why would you want to sit on the bench?" Coco asks. "Why would you want to do that?"
Meanwhile, on the left coast, the Angels’ Juan Rivera finds himself the odd man out in L.A.’s crowded outfield, but isn’t getting worked up about it. The L.A. Times says Rivera wouldn’t mind sitting the bench, if it comes to that. "There’s no pressure from the owner, no pressure from the fans, no pressure from the media," Rivera says.
Both Crisp and Rivera are candidates to be dealt by the start of the season. The Times points out that the Angels could trade Rivera for pitching depth, given that Kelvim Escobar and Chris Bootcheck will start the season on the disabled list and John Lackey and Scot Shields are fighting nagging injuries. As Big Mike noted earlier, San Diego might be looking for an outfielder now that Jim Edmonds is out with an injury. And the Mets are dangling pitchers in an attempt to find a replacement for injured Moises Alou.
Blocked Prospects: Reggie Willits
As a 26 year-old with roughly one full season worth of Major League experience, Reggie Willits may not technically be a prospect. But with Torii Hunter signed through 2012, Vladimir Guerrero through 2009 and likely to stay longer, and Gary Matthews Jr. through 2011, Willits certainly qualifies as blocked. Terry Evans and Nathan Haynes are similarly impeded, and the latter is out of options. But let’s center on Willits.
I want to focus on Willits because he is capable of playing center field. In their 2007 handbook, Baseball America called him an "above-average center fielder with an average arm and plus speed." So he clearly won’t embarrass himself with the glove.
Offensively, Willits profiles as the ideal leadoff hitter. In 576 big league plate appearances, he’s drawn 80 walks. A walk rate near 14% and a .393 career OBP makes for a valuable center fielder, even with no power. Baseball Prospectus sees him dipping to .269/.353/.354 this year, a performance worth $5MM even if he plays only two-thirds of a season. He’s also a switch-hitter with no discernible split. And for the next two seasons, Willits will earn less than a million bucks total.
I’ll assume another team would look to maximize Willits’ value by using him in center. He could help the Twins, A’s, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and Padres to various degrees. The first four teams do have more interesting long-term options in center though. The idea of Willits to San Diego has come up before; that’s the best fit. The Angels are going with internal options at third base and shortstop as well as in the rotation. If any of those fail, Willits, Evans, and Haynes could become primary trading chips.
Odds and Ends: Crede, Rodriguez, Marlins
Just a couple items worth mentioning:
- Matt Hurst notes Elasticman Scot Shields says "(Heck) yeah" to whether or not the Angels should dish out the big bucks for Francisco Rodriguez, this despite incentives in Shields contract that would kick in should he be transitioned into the closer role.
- Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times touches in on Joe Crede‘s fate after notching his first homerun of the spring, easing concerns for his surgically repaired back. Says Cowley, "Crede’s agent, Scott Boras, already has told general manager Ken Williams that they want to explore the market. With Josh Fields waiting in the wings, the Sox are dealing from a position of strength. The Giants are a top suitor." Scouts were present for Crede’s homerun.
- Marlins Owner Jeff Loria says payroll is "all going to be a function of the revenues we generate. If we have a bigger base than we anticipate, that will go back to the payroll." This from Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post who add, "When asked if the team could lock up young stars like shortstop Hanley Ramirez for the long term, Loria said: ‘We’re going to look at that going forward. But we are challenged until we get into that new stadium." The Marlins payroll this year is just under $20MM.
Garret Anderson Enters Contract Year
One 2009 MLB free agent who’s not getting a ton of attention yet is lifetime Angel Garret Anderson. The Angels are faced with a tough decision – $14MM for ’09 or a $3MM buyout. So Tony Reagins will need to ask himself if he’d sign Anderson to a one-year, $11MM deal. PECOTA says he’ll be worth less than $2MM in ’09.
Finally free of injuries, Anderson had a big second half in ’07. This year, the Angels will wisely give him a break by rotating him through the DH spot on occasion. As Mike DiGiovanna writes in the above-linked article, the Angels’ decision on Anderson will be especially tough if he has a good but not great season (something similar to his last three).
K-Rod Loses Case
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez lost his arbitration case. He’ll make $10MM rather than the $12.5MM he wanted.
K-Rod might be looking for something like $50MM over four years when he reaches free agency after the season, which would be a record amount for a reliever. Angels owner Arte Moreno won’t close the door on him, and notes that the Angels have tried a couple of times to sign their closer.
Odds and Ends: Roberts, Garcia, Crede
Today’s assortment of links.
- Gary Sheffield is not fond of Scott Boras.
- Arte Moreno and the Angels aren’t closing the door on K-Rod yet.
- Turns out Brian Roberts left camp because of a possible kidney stone.
- From Small Ball To The Long Ball has all kinds of cool data that I haven’t seen elsewhere. For example, average initial pitch speed for pitchers. Dustin McGowan‘s fastball: 96.11mph. Tim Wakefield‘s: 75.62mph.
- Seems that Freddy Garcia might wait a few months before signing.
- Andrew Baggarly says the Giants consider Joe Crede a possible long-term piece even with his impending free agency. So maybe if they get him and he stays healthy they’ll look to extend him. Baggarly speculates that a guy like Fred Lewis (who is out of options) could work for a Crede swap.
Where Will The Starters Go? AL West Edition
Sorry for the delay from the last edition of Where Will The Starters Go. Since then, we’ve seen two guys come off the market in Kris Benson and Odalis Perez, and another strongly speculated to sign: Shawn Chacon with the Astros. So here’s what we’ve got left:
Bartolo Colon, Josh Fogg, Freddy Garcia, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, Rodrigo Lopez, Eric Milton, Tomo Ohka, Russ Ortiz, John Thomson, Jeff Weaver, David Wells
Once again, I’m open to corrections on my pitching depth charts. I tried to cull as much information from blogs and sites like Baseball America as possible.
Anaheim Angels: John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jon Garland, Dustin Mosely, Kelvim Escobar, Nick Adenhart, Nick Green
Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, Ryan Feierabend
Oakland A’s: Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Lenny DiNardo, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Chad Gaudin, Dallas Braden, Jerry Blevins, Gio Gonzalez
Texas Rangers: Brandon McCarthy, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard, Luis Mendoza, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Elizardo Ramirez
The Angels look to open the season with Lackey, Weaver, Santana, Saunders, and Garland in the rotation, thanks to a Kelvim Escobar injury. So they’ve got five solid starters, with a sixth coming in time for May. Mosely will likely start the year in the bullpen, but can start in a pinch. Nick Green had a decently impressive year at AA in 2007, and is on the 40-man roster, so you have to figure he’s in the succession plans should the team befall an injury. Adenhart would require some manuevering, since he’s not on the 40-man. Yet, this all might be moot, as Mike Scioscia has said that the team won’t be signing any free agent starters.
I’m kind of disappointed not to put Brandon Morrow on this list, but it’s been made pretty clear that he’ll be in the bullpen this year. I personally don’t see the sense in drafting a guy at No. 5 then going and signing Carlos Silva to start over him. But, again, I don’t follow the M’s specifically, so I might be missing something here. There’s some depth there for certain, with six guys projected. They also have Eric O’Flaherty on the 40-man. So it appears Seattle has some decent depth, though I’m not so sure they’re keen on giving starts to Baek, Ramirez, and Feieraband. Would the M’s consider bringing back Weaver? Probably not, unless they were in a real bind. Josh Fogg? Once again, it’s tough to see them signing anyone unless there is an injury.
The list might be able to go on longer for Oakland, but I’ll stop it there. They have a ton of options, and since Billy Beane has basically indicated that this is a rebuilding year, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to sign a free agent starter. Then again, he did go out and get Keith Foulke, and he made that surprise move to get Esteban Loaiza a couple of years ago. So he could definitely surprise and bring in someone. Maybe Colon on a one-year with an option? Beane has done stranger things.
The Rangers are another team with a ton of depth beyond their set starters. Yes, we’ll see Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Jennings, and probably Gabbard start in the rotation. I’d add Kameron Loe and Robinson Tejeda to the list, but it appears they’ll start in the bullpen. They do have starters in case of an injury, once again, including Tejeda and Loe, but none have the experience or track record you’d really look for. I can see them jumping in on Colon or Fogg in case of injury. But barring that, they could look to add some depth, maybe with Kim. I don’t see them making a commitment to a guy like Kyle Lohse, though.
A note before continuing on to the NL: It doesn’t look like this crop fits in well anywhere yet. Teams are for the most part filled out five-deep with starters, so these guys are really looking for an injury or some ineffectiveness come game time in March. I’ve been opening up the "in case of injury" portion, because it appears that’s what it will take for one of these guys to land somewhere, especially if it’s a Major League deal.
– Joe
K-Rod Looking For Rivera Money?
On Saturday, we discussed the Francisco Rodriguez situation. He’s been historically good for a closer his age, and his next contract could be record-breaking. That contract doesn’t seem likely to come from the Angels.
K-Rod has arrived in camp, and he admits that ’08 is probably his last season with L.A. Mike DiGiovanna speaks of repeated rejected extension attempts by the Angels. After the ’07 season, the Angels offered something near three years and $34MM. Rodriguez unsurprisingly turned this down, as it’s $11MM short of the Mariano Rivera money he craves. GM Tony Reagins is thinking about a future that may include Kelvim Escobar or Ervin Santana in the pen.
2008 will be huge for Rodriguez, whose post-break 3.45 ERA and 5.6 BB/9 raise red flags for a team considering committing $40MM+ to him.
K-Rod May Leave Angels After ’08
It’s looking more and more like 2008 will be Francisco Rodriguez’s last season with the Angels. His ’08 contract situation is not said to be the reason he’s late to camp. But the two sides are a solid $2.5MM apart and Rodriguez will try to become the first player to win a hearing this year on Thursday. Mike DiGiovanna thinks the hearing "could lead to animosity."
Rodriguez recently turned 26. He has a career ERA of 2.37 in 383 innings, with 146 saves under his belt. That’s the most saves in baseball history for a pitcher before his 26th birthday. Gregg Olson is next with 131, then Chad Cordero with 128.
Currently scheduled to join K-Rod in the free agent closer class of 2008-09: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen, Trevor Hoffman, and Eric Gagne. My very unofficial research says B.J. Ryan received the largest-ever total for a reliever in November of 2005 with $47MM.