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Piecoro’s Latest On Paniagua

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It seemed like a simple enough story when the Yankees agreed to terms on a $1.1MM deal with Dominican right-hander Juan Paniagua, who had served a one-year suspension for identity fraud, on March 10 (as first reported by Ben Badler of Baseball America). Earlier this week, though, Badler wrote about the unintended consequences of a since-changed rule, as well as the Diamondbacks' reaction to losing out on the now highly touted prospect.

Today, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has more on Paniagua's original, voided deal, and the righty's future prospects.

Ultimately, it was the Diamondbacks' decision to void Paniagua's $17K deal, because neither they nor Major League Baseball could verify the player's identity. This after Paniagua — then going by the name Juan Collado — had played for Arizona's Dominican Summer League team in parts of two seasons under an old rule. It allowed international free agents to play for their would-be teams while their contracts awaited approval from the commissioner's office.

Now, Paniagua's new deal with the Yankees is still awaiting approval, and under the new rules, he may not play for the Yankees organization until a decision is rendered. It bears watching whether the new deal will be approved, because, according to Piecoro, that is not a given:

There still is a lot of skepticism about whether he’ll actually get off the island and into the U.S. The fact that he changed his name, but not his birthday, is a red flag.

We’ll see if he actually gets to the states to play in the minors and if he actually gets the $1.1 million.

Paniagua has apparently maintained all along that his birthday is April 4, 1990, even when he was going by the Collado surname.

Nevertheless, Piecoro writes that a situation like Paniagua's — in which the player benefits financially — is extremely rare; the great majority of international free agents whose contracts are voided for fraud end up losing money in the long run. So, although Arizona lost out on what looks like a promising player, this doesn't seem to be a very common happening.

Quick Hits: Shields, Cardinals, Lawrie, Montero

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Links for Friday, as Ichiro donates over $1.2MM to victims of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan…

Quick Hits: Rays, Wainwright, Lubanski, Eckstein

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We wish Luis Salazar the best as he recovers from eye surgery. Doctors were unable to prevent the Braves minor league manager from losing his eye after a line drive hit him in the face. Here are today's links…

  • Braves outfielder Nate McLouth leads off Steve Henson's list of rebound candidates in 2011 at Yahoo Sports. As MLBTR's Mike Axisa has pointed out, it's a make or break year for McLouth.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times examines the Rays' remade bullpen.
  • Adam Wainwright tells B.J. Rains of FOX Sports Midwest that he hasn’t talked to the Cardinals about his two-year, $21MM option for 2012-13. But as the rehabbing right-hander suggests, somebody will pick him up if the Cards don’t.
  • The Marlins released outfielder Chris Lubanski, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (on Twitter). The Marlins signed the 2003 first rounder to a minor league deal in December after he posted an .899 OPS for Toronto's Triple-A affiliate in 2010.
  • The Mets have made it clear to free agent infielder David Eckstein that they have no interest in him, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. One person familiar with the Mets tells Heyman that it's about "fifty-fifty" whether Luis Castillo opens the season as the team's second baseman.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explains how after a name change and a suspension, Juan Paniagua got a $1.1MM bonus from the Yankees instead of a $17K bonus from the D'Backs (link at USA Today).
  • Tim Dierkes breaks down the closing situation for all 30 MLB teams in a must-read piece at RotoAuthority. 

Yankees Watched Millwood Pitch

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7:53pm: The Yankees were the only team to watch Millwood today, according to Sherman (Twitter links). The Yankees clocked his fastball at 85 mph and say they'll only offer a minor league deal. However, Millwood still wants a Major League contract.

Millwood seeks $4MM and the Yankees are willing to offer a low seven-figure (presumably minor league) deal, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).

3:38pm: The Yankees were among the teams that watched Kevin Millwood throw this morning, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links). Millwood rejected a minor league offer from the Yankees less than a month ago, but the team appears to maintain interest in the right-hander.

Millwood posted a career-low ground ball rate and a career-high fly ball rate last year and allowed 30 homers. He posted a 5.10 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 last year in his first season as an Oriole.

The numbers aren't particularly impressive, but Millwood's durability is. The 36-year-old has averaged 31 starts per season since joining the Braves' rotation in 1998. Last year was typical for Millwood, as he started 31 games and logged 190 2/3 innings.

Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Ivan Nova have pitched well enough that the Yankees don't seem as desperate for starting options as they did earlier in the winter, when Andy Pettitte first announced his retirement. The Cardinals, another potential destination for Millwood, appear to have found their fifth starter in former setup man Kyle McClellan, so they are not longer an obvious fit for Millwood, either. 

Felix Hernandez’s No-Trade Clause

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Mariners ace Felix Hernandez can block trades to ten teams, and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned eight of them: the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, and Phillies.  Morosi adds:

We shouldn’t infer from that list that Hernandez wants to avoid large-market clubs. Rather, astute players (and agents) will often protect against trades to high-revenue teams, because those clubs (a) are most likely to be interested in acquiring expensive players and (b) have the wherewithal to offer financial inducements that encourage players to waive the clauses.

Hernandez, 25 next month, is owed $70.5MM over the next four years under the contract he signed in January of 2010.  Many teams would salivate if he were made available, but GM Jack Zduriencik recently told SI's Jon Heyman, "He's not going anywhere.  We've got him. We'll keep him. We're not going to move him."

I don't see any reason to doubt Zduriencik or expect him to change his mind.  2011 may be a regrouping year for the Mariners, but they're surely expecting to contend before 2014.

AL East Notes: Bowden, Chavez, Cliff Lee

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AL East notes, as Jon Lester gets the Opening Day nod for the Red Sox…

  • Michael Bowden told WEEI's Mike Petraglia he knows he has a slim chance to make Boston's bullpen, so he hopes to create an opportunity for himself in Triple-A.  The 24-year-old former first-round pick could be a nice trade chip for the Red Sox should a need arise; he could start for another club.
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane explained to Joel Sherman of the New York Post why he felt Eric Chavez was on a Hall of Fame career path when he locked up the third baseman for $66MM seven years ago.  Now 33 and operating on a minor league deal, Chavez appears likely to have his contract purchased by the Yankees to begin the season.  In a blog post, Sherman notes that Andruw Jones, unlike Chavez, "is creating no buzz in Yankee camp."
  • Talking to Brian Costello of the New York Post, Yankees GM Brian Cashman responded to Cliff Lee's comment that "it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older."  Lee never raised that issue to Cashman, who concluded, "It doesn't really matter.  It was a marriage that was not meant to be. That's life."

Rafael Soriano’s Contract

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Opt-out clauses and player options often result in no-win situations for teams, as in the cases of A.J. Burnett and J.D. Drew in offseasons past.  Both players were performing well enough to opt out and score much bigger contracts, a path that C.C. Sabathia could follow after the 2011 season.  My initial reaction when Scott Boras negotiated two opt-outs within Rafael Soriano's three-year, $35MM deal with the Yankees was that the team made a major concession.  However, upon a closer look I'm not so sure.

The most baffling aspect of Soriano's contract is the suggestion that his $11.67MM average salary represented a drop in his price tag.  If that's a discount, I can't imagine what Boras was asking for at the beginning of the offseason.  In January, it wasn't even clear that Soriano had a second serious suitor.

Soriano

Had he not saved 72 games over the last two seasons, I imagine Soriano's salary would have been around $6MM a year, about half what he got from the Yankees and the going rate for a top setup man.  Closer inflation is the reason I don't expect Soriano to opt out of his contract at either of his chances.  If he puts up a strong 2011 season but saves fewer than ten games, what team would pay him more than the two years and $23.5MM left on his contract?  If Soriano sets up for Rivera in 2012 as well, what team would offer him more than $12.5MM for one year?  Soriano needs to hope for relief contracts to take additional leaps forward in the next two offseasons.

The main benefit to Soriano is the chance to try for a longer term after the '11 or '12 seasons.  But if you factor in a reduced setup man salary on a new deal, I'm still skeptical that he'd risk opting out.  A strong 2011 might allow Soriano to find a three-year deal for around $25MM, but that's not a big enough improvement over the two years and $23.5MM that would remain on his current deal.  Getting three years as opposed to one after the '12 season has added appeal, but the Yankees backloaded Soriano's contract so that it'll still be a tough choice for him.  For Soriano to have a clear reason to opt out at either point, he may need to be coming off a season in which he dominates and racks up 30+ saves.  Since Rivera is 42 now, that is possible.

Soriano is an injury risk, and I've seen the argument that the opt-out clauses ensure he'll remain with the Yankees if he suffers a major injury.  That would have been the case anyway on a normal guaranteed three-year deal.

Aside from the Yankees bidding against themselves, the biggest concern about the Soriano contract is the potential erosion of GM Brian Cashman's autonomy, as he was said to be opposed to signing Soriano due to the loss of the #31 overall draft pick to the Rays.  Co-owners Hank and Hal Steinbrenner and team president Randy Levine reportedly made the final decision to sign Soriano, though Wallace Matthew's source insisted:

"Cash has not lost one iota of credibility or autonomy over this. There has been no loss of faith in him at all. Cash is in charge of all baseball operations, but he would never in a million years tell you ownership doesn't make the final decisions. It's their money, not his."

AL East Notes: Martinez, Crawford, Sanchez

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Daisuke Matsuzaka had his best outing of the spring against the Tigers today, allowing two hits and a walk in five scoreless innings, striking out five. Here's the latest on the AL East, as the Red Sox and their fans gain a little confidence in the back of their rotation…

  • Victor Martinez, who was playing against his former team this afternoon, told the Boston Herald that he "loved" Boston and has no hard feelings toward the Red Sox. V-Mart added that he thinks the Red Sox are offseason winners because they improved their pitching and offense.
  • Alex Speier of WEEI.com wonders what might have happened if the Red Sox had re-signed Martinez. A team source tells Speier that the Red Sox thought there was a chance the backstop would return. But as we heard earlier in the offseason, the Red Sox had doubts about Martinez's ability to catch long-term.
  • If Martinez had returned, Speier hears that the Red Sox would have had the resources to pursue either Carl Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez, but not both.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that Yankees right-hander Romulo Sanchez has been impressing scouts (Twitter link). The out-of-options 26-year-old could fit on a team looking for relief help, according to Rosenthal.

Release Candidate: Sergio Mitre

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Some scouts are "convinced the Yankees are going to release Sergio Mitre," reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  The club has two open rotation spots and one long relief job, which could go to Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova in some combination.

If the Yankees release Mitre prior to March 28th, he'd only be due 45 days termination pay, which on his $900K salary equals $222,527.  If they release him after that they'd owe the full $900K, less the prorated portion of the league minimum if he signs elsewhere.  So either way the bill to let Mitre go should be less than $500K.

Mitre, 30, owns a 5.03 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.4 HR/9 in 105 2/3 big league innings across two seasons for the Yankees, tossing another 68 innings in the minors.  He's been homer-prone despite strong groundball rates.  Mitre had Tommy John surgery in July of 2008, earning a release from the Marlins a few months later.  He signed a split contract with the Yankees that November.  While rehabbing his elbow, Mitre picked up a 50-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy.  Later in his Yankees career, he was retained for the '10 and '11 seasons as an arbitration eligible player.

Quick Hits: Peavy, Kontos, Rowand, Reyes

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Some links to round out this Monday evening..

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