Jason Adam Likely Headed For Season-Ending Quad Surgery

10:12pm: Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Adam will undergo season-ending surgery if a follow-up MRI confirms the initial diagnosis. The hope is that he’ll be able to return some time around the beginning of the 2026 season.

9:42pm: Padres reliever Jason Adam has been diagnosed with a tendon rupture in his left quad, manager Mike Shildt tells reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic). Shildt didn’t specify a recovery timeline or whether surgery will be required. It’s nevertheless difficult to imagine Adam will be back this season.

Adam was carted off the Petco Park mound during this evening’s loss to the Orioles (video via Talkin’ Baseball). Gunnar Henderson hit a chopper up the middle. The ball was a little behind the right-handed Adam, who naturally pulls toward first base on the follow-through in his delivery. Adam appeared to try to plant and change direction to field the ball when his left leg gave out. The injury had some similarities to the one suffered by Giants starter Landen Roupp, who hurt his knee (coincidentally also in San Diego) while trying to dodge a comeback line drive two weeks ago.

Both pitchers end up being carted off the field. Roupp got relatively good news, as he escaped structural damage — though he did suffer a bone bruise that’ll likely end his season. Adam’s injury unfortunately seems more serious. It’ll also be a much more significant development on the playoff picture. The Friars trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot and six games clear of the top non-playoff team.

Adam was a journeyman depth reliever throughout his 20s. He suffered a gruesome left ankle fracture while with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2021. It was remarkable that he got back on a mound just four months later. Adam had a breakout showing with the Rays the following season. He has been one of the best and most durable relievers in MLB over the past four years.

Since the start of 2022, Adam ranks sixth in the majors with 262 appearances. His 2.04 earned run average is fourth among relievers with 100+ innings in that stretch (trialing Emmanuel Clase, Brusdar Graterol and Félix Bautista). Only Tyler Rogers and Bryan Abreu have more holds, and Adam has also collected 24 saves in that time.

Adam has continued to produce since the Padres acquired him from Tampa Bay at the ’24 trade deadline. He took a 1.81 ERA and above-average 26% strikeout rate into tonight’s appearance. He’s the team leader in holds (29) and relief innings (64 2/3). Only closer Robert Suarez has entered in higher leverage situations on average. Losing Adam will be a big hit in the postseason, though the Padres still have an enviable group of back-end arms. The Mason Miller deadline swing takes on added importance. Suarez remains an asset in the ninth inning, while Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada are high-end setup arms.

The Padres have Adam under arbitration control for one more season. He’ll be due a decent raise on this year’s $4.8MM salary if they tender him a contract. That’d remain a bargain if he were healthy, but it’d be a tougher call if this injury winds up threatening a chunk of his 2026 season. That prognosis won’t be clear until the organization provides a return timeline. The Padres could lose Suarez to an opt-out clause this winter, and it’s possible they plan to give Miller a look as a starting pitcher next spring.