Free Agent Market

Supply always exceeds demand in the market for designated hitters, since only 14 such jobs exist.  Well-paid declining sluggers David Ortiz, Pat Burrell, and Travis Hafner seemingly have locks on three of those 14 spots for 2010.  Three more will disappear if Mike Jacobs, Adam Lind, and Jason Kubel maintain their principal '09 roles.  Plus, certain teams prefer to keep the DH spot open to give aging players a break.  If the free agent hitters below can't muster up tolerable first base/left field defense and good health to match, they may be limited to eight or fewer open American League DH spots.

• Hideki Matsui leads DHs with a .369 OBP.  Jim Thome is next at .367.  Gary Sheffield is up there at .369, and he even managed 501 innings in the outfield this year.  Manny Ramirez, should he decline his $20MM player option, might be best-served bringing his .422 OBP to the DH market.
• Manny would be the SLG leader at .559.  Then we have Russell Branyan at .520, though he spent most of his time at first base in 2009.  Next is Matsui at .515, Thome at .484, Vladimir Guerrero at .472, and Hank Blalock at .469.   Aubrey Huff spent most of last season at DH and posted a .552 SLG.
• Carlos Delgado would be a wild card if the 37-year-old decides to make the transition from first base to DH. He hit .298/.393/.521 in 112 plate appearances for the Mets before going down for hip surgery.
• Vlad and Manny project as Type A free agents.  Matsui, Huff, and Delgado project as Type Bs.  Manny is the only Scott Boras client in the group.
• We have not been trying to predict non-tendered players or trade candidates in these free agent market discussions.  But keep in mind that Jacobs, Jack Cust, and Milton Bradley may also be in the mix.
• Teams hold a clear advantage over those vying for DH jobs, so low-risk one-year deals should be the norm.  Guerrero, an intriguing option after missing much of '09 with a torn pectoral muscle, could sign for two years or one year with an option.

Today let's review the upcoming free agent market for center fielders.

• Scott Podsednik is your OBP leader at .352 (he's got 353 innings in center field this year).  Mike Cameron is next at .351.  Coco Crisp (.336, club option), Reed Johnson (.327), and Marlon Byrd (.324) follow.  Byrd, Johnson, and Crisp reached base more frequently last year.  Rick Ankiel was useful at .337.
• Byrd's .476 SLG leads the group.  Cameron (.445) is the other power consideration.  Andruw Jones has not played center field this year, but he owns a .477 SLG in 303 plate appearances.  Last year, Ankiel's .506 SLG was second among all center fielders.  Dealing with groin and shoulder injuries, Ankiel has limped to a .233/.285/.392 line in 376 PAs this year.
• Defensively, Crisp leads in UZR/150 in a limited sample.  Cameron comes up a positive, and Byrd about average.  Heading into the season, John Dewan of The Fielding Bible ranked Corey Patterson, Cameron, and Jones among his top ten defensive center fielders in the game.  Patterson hit .292/.333/.478 in 113 Triple A games this year.
• Rocco Baldelli, Ankiel, Crisp, and Patterson are the youngest in this group.  Baldelli has played only 56 innings in center for the Red Sox.  He has a .456 SLG in his 149 PA sample.
• Ankiel and Jones are represented by Scott Boras.
• Byrd, Cameron, and Johnson profile as Type B free agents (there are no Type As).
• He'll turn 37 in January, but Cameron appears to be the best all-around free agent center field option.  Ankiel might be interesting on a one-year deal.  Byrd has a respectable bat and can handle all three outfield positions.  Crisp has something to prove after undergoing surgery on both shoulders this summer.  The Royals will decide between his $8MM option and a $500K buyout, once they examine his medical records.

Looking to fill a left field vacancy?  Obviously this is where you'll find the mashers and the big bucks.  Here's a look at the free agent market…

• OBP leaders: Manny Ramirez (.418, player option), Matt Holliday (.391), Jason Bay (.385), Gary Sheffield (.371), and Johnny Damon (.366).  Last year's left field OBP leaderboard looks very similar, except Sheff played only 47 innings in the field.  Bobby Abreu, mainly a right fielder, has a .398 OBP.
• SLG leaders are the same: Manny (.552), Bay (.534), Holliday (.525), Damon (.497), and Sheffield (.457).  Marlon Byrd, more of a center fielder, checks in at .477. 
• Carl Crawford is probably the best defensive left fielder, but no one expects the Rays to turn down his $10MM club option.  Reed Johnson, Holliday, and Damon made John Dewan's top ten list heading into the season.  UZR/150 likes Rick Ankiel, Randy Winn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark DeRosa, and Endy Chavez in limited left field duty this year.
• Players such as Abreu, Sheffield, DeRosa, Byrd, Winn, Ankiel, Hideki Matsui, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero, and Xavier Nady could be considered left field candidates despite more time spent at other positions recently.
• Bay, Abreu, Damon, Guerrero, Dye, Holliday, and Manny currently project as Type A free agents.  Nady, Byrd, Matsui, Giles, Garret Anderson, Winn, Fernando Tatis, Johnson, and Sheffield project as Bs.  Of course not all of these players will be offered arbitration.
• Anderson, Damon, Holliday, Manny, Ankiel, Jones, and Nady are Scott Boras clients.
• Wily Mo Pena, Holliday, Ankiel, and Austin Kearns (club option) are the youngest available left field candidates.

Next up in our look at the free agent market, the hot corner.

• For OBP, Chone Figgins is your man (.401).  After him it drops to Adam Kennedy (.342).  Bounceback possibilities based on '08 OBPs: Jerry Hairston Jr. (.384), Mark DeRosa (.376), and Troy Glaus (.372).
• Juan Uribe (.498 SLG) surprisingly leads free agent third basemen in slugging this year.  DeRosa (.439) also has pop.  Last year there was Hairston (.487), Glaus (.483), Melvin Mora (.483, club option), DeRosa (.481), Joe Crede (.460), and Adrian Beltre (.457).
• Looking for defensive prowess?  UZR/150 points to traditionally well-regarded names: Crede, Figgins, and Beltre.  John Dewan of The Fielding Bible ranked Beltre as the game's best defensive third baseman heading into the season.  He ranked Pedro Feliz (club option) second and Crede third.
• Beltre and Crede are represented by Scott Boras.  Both players showed only flashes of solid offense this year while dealing with injuries.  At 31 next year Beltre is on the younger side of the group.  He'd make an intriguing value buy for an NL club.  Uribe will also be 31 next year.  Bobby Crosby turns 30 in January.
• Glaus is a comeback candidate, though he may not be able to play third base regularly given this year's shoulder injury.
• Figgins contributes on both sides of the ball and is clearly the top free agent third baseman.  Beltre and Uribe figure to generate attention as well.  Figgins and Glaus currently profile as Type A free agents, while Mora, Beltre, DeRosa, and Feliz project as Bs.
• Mora's $8MM club option should be declined by the Orioles, while the Phillies may exercise Feliz's $5MM option.
• Miguel Tejada played third base in the World Baseball Classic this year, and has expressed a willingness to play there to remain with the Astros.  He'll be 36 in May, and has a .301/.332/.434 line in 600 plate appearances.

Today let's take a look at the free agent market for shortstops.

• Marco Scutaro is the OBP leader at .377.  He's racked up 83 walks in 639 plate appearances.  After him we get down to Omar Vizquel and Miguel Tejada in the .330 range.  Scott Boras client Alex Cora was at .371 in limited duty last year, but he's down to .320 in '09.
• Good luck finding power – you've got Tejada with a .435 SLG, and then Scutaro at .409.
• Defense is crucial at shortstop.  UZR/150 likes Jack Wilson (club option), Alex Gonzalez (club option), Scutaro, and Adam Everett (of course).  In his top ten heading into the season, the Fielding Bible's John Dewan ranked Wilson, Everett, Omar Vizquel, and John McDonald in his top ten.
• Felipe Lopez last spent significant time at shortstop in 2007; it'd be a big gamble to use him there consistently.
• If you're looking for youth, Lopez, Bobby Crosby and Khalil Greene will be 30 years old next season.
• Scutaro, Orlando Cabrera, and Lopez project as Type A free agents.  Wilson and Tejada project as Bs.  Given his contributions on offense and defense, Scutaro is the prize of the free agent shortstop class. 

Today let's take a look at the free agent market for second basemen.

• Chone Figgins deserves his own bullet.  He hasn't spent significant time at second base since 2005, but his work at the hot corner this year suggests he'd be fine moving back.  He's a Type A free agent with a robust .402 OBP and the versatility to handle many positions.  Jerry Hairston Jr., also a free agent, is a poor man's Figgins.  Mark DeRosa fits somewhere in-between. 
• Plenty of other solid OBP options: Felipe Lopez at .369, Jamey Carroll at .367, Craig Counsell at .362, Akinori Iwamura at .361 (club option), and Orlando Hudson at .356.  OBP alone won't guarantee a job, though – Ray Durham had a .380 rate in '08 and did not play this year.
• Second base is not a power position; best you'll find is DeRosa with a .445 SLG.  Freddy Sanchez is at .434 (club option), Counsell .423, Lopez .421, Hudson .419.  Ronnie Belliard (.473), DeRosa (.457), and Hudson (.450) showed decent pop last year.
• Defensively, John Dewan of The Fielding Bible considers Hudson, Placido Polanco, and Adam Kennedy among the ten best second basemen in the game.  UZR/150 points to Carroll, Counsell, Juan Uribe, Polanco, Belliard, Sanchez, Lopez, and Iwamura as above-average this year in limited samples.  Last year Kennedy and Uribe ranked highly.
• Iwamura's club option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout, while Sanchez's is for $8MM with a $600K buyout.  The Rays have the depth to let Iwamura leave, while the Giants could keep Sanchez to help justify their trade of Tim Alderson.
• Lopez joins Figgins as a Type A free agent; Polanco and DeRosa are currently Bs.
• Lopez and Alex Cora are represented by Scott Boras.
• Looking to convince a shortstop to play second base?  Orlando Cabrera, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson (club option) are among those available.

The free agent market for first basemen is lacking a monster bat, but there are some interesting names.

• Nick Johnson is one of the game's best at getting on base.  His .421 OBP this year in 496 plate appearances for the Nationals and Marlins ranks fourth in baseball.  Johnson, however, is equally well-known for his lengthy injury history.  He's the one true OBP threat of the group – next we have Adam LaRoche at .350 and Russell Branyan at .347.
• Branyan is the top power source, with a .520 SLG in a career-high 505 plate appearances.  He's really scuffled since July though.  LaRoche is next with a .479 SLG for the Pirates, Red Sox, and Braves.  Hank Blalock has 471 innings at first base this year, so he's in the discussion with a .466  SLG.  The .278 OBP negates much of that.  In that small (inconclusive) defensive sample, Blalock rated well defensively according to UZR/150.
• Carlos Delgado's work in 2008 and '09 stands with all of the above players, but he's missed most of this year due to hip surgery.  Aubrey Huff and Jason Giambi were effective in '08 but haven't impressed this year. 
• You won't find any top defenders in this group, aside from Doug Mientkiewicz.  Guys like Chad Tracy, Ross Gload, and LaRoche won't kill you.
• If you're looking for youth, Blalock, LaRoche, and Tracy are in the 29-30 range.
• There are no Type A free agents here.  Huff, Delgado, Johnson, and Fernando Tatis project as Type Bs.
• Troy Glaus might be a dark horse, minor league deal option.  But he has only played 38 innings at first base in his career.
• Johnson, Branyan, and LaRoche should get decent, perhaps even multiyear contracts.  Delgado, Blalock, and Huff might also be able to snag starting jobs at first base or DH.

Today let's take a look at the free agent market for catchers.  As usual, plenty of backups will be eligible for free agency after the season.  As far as those who have been used as starters in recent years, we have Rod Barajas, Josh Bard, Ramon Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Bengie Molina, Miguel Olivo, Ivan Rodriguez, Brian Schneider, Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Varitek, and Gregg Zaun.  It's safe to assume Boston will exercise Victor Martinez's $7.7MM club option for 2010.

• Looking for OBP?  Zaun is your best bet at .355 this year.  After that you get to Kendall, Hernandez, and Varitek in the .330 range.
• Power?  Olivo is slugging .467, though his OBP is just .276.  Bengie Molina and Barajas have similar numbers.
• Durability?  Bengie Molina's played 114 games this year (though he's hurting currently), Kendall 112.
• Olivo (31), Bard (32), and Torrealba (31) are the youngest free agent catchers.
• In shutting down the running game, Pudge leads with a 32.7% caught stealing rate.  Barajas is next at a 29%.  Bengie Molina leads in volume with 23 runners cut down.  Ramon Castro and Henry Blanco have strong rates in limited playing time.
• Zero passed balls for Varitek, with Kendall and Bengie Molina allowing only three.
• Here's an interesting attempt to measure catcher defense that puts Pudge at the top of the free agent list.  And in The Fielding Bible II, John Dewan's top defensive catchers who are also free agents are Jose Molina, Kendall, Barajas, Bengie Molina, and Pudge in that order.
• Possible free agent compensation: Varitek, Pudge, Barajas, Olivo, Hernandez, Kendall, and Schneider project as Type Bs (Varitek, Olivo, and Hernandez have options).  Aside from V-Mart, Bengie Molina projects as the lone Type A.  He earned $6MM this year.