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MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

Quick Hits: Kevin Cash, Orioles

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Good news Rays fans, Kevin Cash is rising the ranks, up to 9th from 15th on nbcsports.com’s list of most handsome managers, per Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Apparently winning agrees with him. There’s not much action around the league here on the morning of Christmas Eve, clearly, but MLBTR will be here throughout the holiday season to keep your baseball appetite sated. For now, let’s check in with the Baltimore Orioles…

  • It’s a slow burn offseason for the Orioles and new decision-maker Mike Elias, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The new Executive VP and GM has tempered expectations since taking over last month, but even after checking the first box on his to-do list in bringing new manager Brandon Hyde over from the Cubs, player acquisition remains on the backburner. Given that Elias wasn’t installed until the offseason was already underway, it’s a good sign that Baltimore seems focused on the organizational recalibration of a new regime. The work of installing new operations and philosophies organization-wide isn’t sexy work, and it doesn’t produce much fodder to keep fans interested, but as Kubatko notes, it’s more pressing than roster construction at this juncture for the Orioles.
  • That said, the additions they have made aren’t wholly irrelevant, not for a team likely to give extended tryouts to younger players at the major league level: Richie Martin, 24, is a former first rounder who hit .300 his second time through Double A last season, Drew Jackson, 25, spiked his power output to .196 ISO as he, too, repeated Double A, and Rio Ruiz, 24, has struggled at the major league level, but he’s also a known commodity for Elias, who drafted him with the first pick in the fourth round in his first season in Houston. Granted, there’s always a little smoke and mirrors when a player’s production jumps the second time through a level, and in Ruiz’s case, it’s hard to tell the difference between familiarity as a positive and sentimentality. Still, though it may not seem like much, some of Theo Epstein’s first moves in Chicago were taking Hector Rondon in the Rule 5 draft and trading for a player he’d previously drafted who had struggled to that point in the big leagues. That’s not to say Ruiz will turn into Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo was a highly touted prospect prior to his struggles in San Diego whereas Ruiz was a waiver claim – but these minor moves always have the potential to snowball into something more, and they’re the right kind of gambles for Elias and his team to be making barely a month into their Baltimore tenure.  

Quick Hits: Perez, Luzardo, D’Backs

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A few items from around the baseball world as we head into the new week…

  • “There is interest on both sides for a reunion” between the Indians and left-hander Oliver Perez, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, though Hoynes doesn’t expect a deal (if any) to happen for at least a month.  Perez is one of many veteran relievers who may be somewhat stuck in limbo until later in the offseason as teams try to wait out the market, though the southpaw figures to draw another Major League contract based on his strong performance in 2018.  After spending Spring Training and the first two months of the season on minors contracts with the Reds and Yankees, Perez landed in Cleveland and posted a 1.39 ERA, 6.14 K/BB rate and an 11.97 K/9 over 32 1/3 innings, posting dominant numbers against both left-handed and right-handed batters.  Even expecting some regression, Perez at worst looks like he could be a LOOGY type.  Outside of closer Brad Hand, Tyler Olson is the only other left-handed reliever in the Tribe’s pen, so there’s certainly a case for Perez to return.
  • Left-handed pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo is drawing raves from both inside and outside the Athletics organization, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser writes, leading to increased speculation that he could begin the season on Oakland’s Major League roster.  The 21-year-old Luzardo jumped from high A-ball to Triple-A in 2018, posting a combined 2.88 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.3 K/BB rate over 109 1/3 total innings.  Those numbers did include a 7.31 ERA over 16 Triple-A frames, however, and two rival scouts felt Luzardo needed a bit more minor league seasoning.  (Left unsaid were any service time considerations the A’s might have about gaining an extra year of team control over the top prospect.)  On the other hand, Luzardo’s widely-praised poise and makeup makes him seem like a good candidate to at least mentally handle the jump to the big leagues, and his talent could also be too much to ignore.  “I don’t see any way he can’t break [camp] with us,” special assistant Grady Fuson said, also favorably comparing Luzardo to several past Athletics arms.  “He’s one of the best things to come along here in a while.  If you take our own history, he has better stuff than [Mark] Mulder. He’s got better heat than [Barry] Zito. You could kind of compare him to Gio Gonzalez at the same point, but with much, much better command.”
  • With the Diamondbacks mired in a disappointing season back in August 2016, the Dave Stewart-led front office proposed a five-year rebuilding plan for the team, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan reports (subscription required).  Largely compiled by former assistant GM Bryan Minniti, two of the plan’s main components involved trading Paul Goldschmidt and exploring an extension with shortstop Jean Segura, which created an immediate contrast to what the D’Backs actually did when Stewart was replaced by current GM Mike Hazen — Segura was the one dealt as part of a noteworthy trade with the Mariners, while Goldschmidt was kept in the fold for two more seasons, leading the Snakes to a postseason berth in 2017.  The piece is well worth a full read for a look at this potential alternate history of Arizona baseball, as Buchanan weighs the pros and cons of whether it would’ve been wiser for the D’Backs to begin a rebuild then as opposed to the semi-retooling that the club has undergone this offseason.  Of course, as one source mentioned to Buchanan, Stewart might not have been the best GM to entrust with a rebuild, given how his front office was often criticized for its approach to acquiring and evaluating minor league talent.

Latest On The Cubs, Bryce Harper

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Cubs executives met with Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras during the Winter Meetings, holding discussions that reportedly were around three hours in length, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  No deal appears to be close between the two sides, though the most intriguing detail stemming from the meeting is that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein asked Harper and Boras to check in with the Cubs before agreeing to a deal with another team, in order to give the Cubs more time to try and create payroll space for the free agent slugger.

We’ve heard all offseason long that the Cubs have little in the way of spending capacity, and outside of modest deals to sign Daniel Descalso and Kendall Graveman, there hasn’t been much activity at all coming out of Wrigley Field.  The decision to exercise Cole Hamels’ club option is still the Cubs’ biggest move this winter, and that transaction required a corresponding move (trading Drew Smyly to the Rangers) in order to clear some money off the books.

The Cubs certainly have their share of high-priced contracts that haven’t yet worked out — Jason Heyward, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brian Duensing, Brandon Kintzler, and Brandon Morrow stand out as players who delivered subpar seasons in 2018, either due to injuries or just a poor performance.  Of course, those same reasons present major obstacles in finding a trade partner for any of those names.  Adding to the team’s difficulty is that the Cubs firmly intend on being contenders in 2019, which is why they aren’t seriously considering dealing the likes of Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo.

Some creativity will certainly be required if Epstein and his front office plan to make a serious run at Harper, considering that Boras has every intention of landing a record-setting contract for the outfielder.  Chicago could certainly explore the type of luxury tax-reducing salary dump trade that the Dodgers have become experts at in recent years, most recently their seven-player swap with the Reds just two days ago.  That very deal has been rumored to be part of the Dodgers’ own pursuit of Harper, so the Cubs could already be behind the Dodgers in that regard, though Harper (like most major Boras clients) isn’t expected to sign until later in the offseason.

As per Roster Resource, the Cubs are currently on the hook for a payroll in excess of $220MM next season, which comes with a projected luxury tax price tag of just under $234.5MM (reminder: the luxury tax payroll carries some different calculations than solely the dollar figures on the MLB payroll).  This puts them in position to exceed the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and thus pay a tax penalty of 20% of every dollar on the overage.  This is the “first-timer” rate for any team that exceeds the threshold but stayed under the line in the previous season.  If the Cubs’ tax bill were to exceed the $246MM mark next season, they’d face a larger financial penalty as well as a ten-spot drop in the draft order for their highest selection in the 2019 amateur draft.  (The Red Sox faced this penalty for their $40MM+ overage last season.)

The Cubs have owed luxury tax just once in their history, as crossing the CBT threshold in 2016 resulted in a $2.96MM tax bill.  Needless to say, this was a small price to pay considering that the Cubs ended their World Series drought that season.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has observed in the past, the actual dollar amount surrendered for these luxury tax payments is a veritable drop in the bucket for a big-market team, so there isn’t any major financial downside for a team to pass the threshold once, or even multiple times.

The Cubs are also expected to have even more revenue on hand in the form of a new TV contract, though it could be that ownership wants to have that money firmly in place before making any future financial commitments.  2019 is also the last year of guaranteed salaries for Hamels, Morrow, Kintzler, Duensing, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, and Pedro Strop, so quite a bit of payroll money will be available next winter to help in ducking under the tax threshold, or at least avoiding the higher $40MM+ overage penalty.

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

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The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond.  Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

  • Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper.  It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.  A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
  • The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.  With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter.  Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason.  Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left.  Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
  • In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries.  While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.

AL East Notes: Bundy, Cobb, Soria, Morton, Rays

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Some rumblings from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles have received some calls about Dylan Bundy and Alex Cobb, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reports.  We’ve heard already about some level of trade interest in Cobb, and while this is the first time this winter that Bundy’s name has surfaced in trade rumors, it stands to reason that teams are checking in on every veteran name on Baltimore’s roster as the O’s are entering into a lengthy rebuild.  Bundy would be the most obviously valuable target, as he still has three years of control remaining and has tossed 341 1/3 innings over the last two seasons, after struggling with injuries in the early stages of his career.  Bundy posted a 5.45 ERA last season due in large part to problems (2.1 HR/9) keeping the ball in the park, as his overall peripheral numbers were more solid.  Cobb pitched well in the second half of 2018 after enduring a rough first few months as an Oriole, though one would think the O’s might have to eat some money to accommodate a Cobb trade.  The veteran righty is still owed $43MM over the next three seasons.
  • Before Joakim Soria signed with the Athletics, the Red Sox had interest in the veteran reliever, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports.  Talks between the two sides “never got anywhere concrete,” Drellich writes, and Soria ended up going to Oakland on a two-year, $15MM deal.  Boston has been linked to several relievers this offseason as the team looks to replace Joe Kelly and (potentially) Craig Kimbrel at the back of the bullpen, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has thus far held off on making any major additions.  It wouldn’t have been the first time that Dombrowski had acquired Soria; the Tigers traded for Soria in July 2014, back when Dombrowski was Detroit’s general manager.
  • There was a lot of mutual interest between Charlie Morton and the Rays, the right-hander told reporters (including MLB.com’s Richard Justice) after his two-year deal with Tampa Bay was officially announced.  Beyond what the Rays offered on the field and contract-wise, they had the added bonus of proximity to Morton’s offseason home in Bradenton, Florida.  “The thought of being able to play close to home and with such a talented group, a young group, an exciting group, seemed something too good to be true,” Morton said.  “I guess I was looking for a really good situation overall more than a dollar amount, more than a year amount. The quality of the character in the clubhouse, those things are really important to me.”
  • The Rays’ use of the “opener” was one of the major baseball stories of 2018, and MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince details how the strategy not only aided in Tampa’s on-field success, but also how many other teams around the game are considering (or have already deployed) openers of their own.  Of course, the Rays’ own pitchers first had to get used to the idea, and that required the participation of the initial opener, longtime reliever Sergio Romo.  “What if I knew that I wasn’t going to be the only one asked to do this?” Romo said. “What if I understood that part of the reason they asked me first was to maybe get the younger guys to say, ’Hey look, he bought into it. He’s supposed to be the veteran on our team, and he had no problem doing that.’ Yeah, I did see that and understand it. In a sense, I knew I wouldn’t be the only one.”  It would be interesting to see if Romo’s experience as an opener becomes a selling point for the reliever in free agency, as teams planning to use an opener in 2019 could look to Romo to begin games in addition to serving in a more traditional late-game relief role.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Realmuto, Rays, Keuchel, Astros, Angels, Cards, D-backs

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Cubs Sign Kendall Graveman

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TUESDAY: Per Heyman, Graveman will earn an additional $100K for each of the following performance milestones: 15 games started, 18 GS, 21 GS, 23 GS, and 25 GS. The incentives package means that Graveman can earn up to $2.5MM in 2019.

SUNDAY: Chicago has announced the signing.

SATURDAY: The Cubs have agreed to a deal with free agent pitcher Kendall Graveman, per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter).

Graveman gets a major league contract worth $575K for 2019 with a $3MM club option for 2020. That option year does not include a buyout. Even one day on the 2019 roster, however, will trigger an escalator clause to bring Graveman’s salary to $2MM, and he can earn an additional $500k in performance bonuses.

Graveman, 28, had been relatively productive the last four seasons for the Oakland A’s when not dogged by injury. His high water mark came in 2016, working to a 10-11 record in 186 innings over 31 starts with a 4.11 ERA (4.39 FIP). For his career, Graveman carries a 23-29 record and 4.38 ERA across 78 career starts.

The A’s say goodbye to another piece from the Josh Donaldson trade of 2014. Infielder Franklin Barreto is now the only player remaining from the trade that sent Oakland’s star third baseman to Toronto the year before he would win the MVP award with the Blue Jays. Graveman spent four seasons in Oakland, the last of which was mostly lost to injury. He made only seven starts in 2018 with a 7.60 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

For the Cubs, they get to closely monitor the recovery of a potential rotation arm in 2020 at a very low cost. From their presumed 2019 rotation, only Hamels will be a free agent after next season, but Kyle Hendricks will be entering his final year of arbitration, and Jose Quintana will be facing the first of consecutive club options. There’s almost no downside for the Cubs here, while Graveman gets to benefit from the medical resources of the a large market team as he rehabs from Tommy John.

The timetable for his 2019 return is as of yet unclear, but it’s not expected he will play much of a role, if any, on the Cubs next year, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times (via Twitter).The Cubs signed Drew Smyly in a similar situation before last season, only to flip him to the Rangers to help cover the cost of Cole Hamels’ club option this year. Garrett Richards, in a similar situation, signed for two years and $15.5MM guaranteed with the Padres, though he carries a longer track record of success than Graveman.

The financials of the deal were first reported by 670thescore.com’s Bruce Levine, while Fancred’s Jon Heyman noted earlier than Graveman received a major league deal (Twitter links). Heyman added the information about the escalator clause and performance bonus (via Twitter). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Trout, A’s, Lowrie, Barreto, Cardinals

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Despite Mike Trout’s presence, the Angels are stuck in no-man’s land as a club that doesn’t look like a clear-cut contender, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription required). As brilliant as Trout has been, the Angels haven’t made the playoffs or won more than 85 games in a season since 2014, leading Olney to note there’s a legitimate argument they should consider a Mariners-esque rebuild. However, the Angels have signed starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill in win-now moves this winter, and Olney concedes it’s unlikely they’ll blow things up in the final two years of Trout’s contract. The 27-year-old Trout “desperately” wants to win, and the Angels are uninterested in trading him, writes Olney. But moving Trout to jump-start a rebuild is something the Angels should at least consider if he’s unwilling to sign an extension, Olney argues.

Here’s more from around the game:

  • Although Jed Lowrie was among the majors’ premier second basemen from 2017-18, during which he totaled 8.5 fWAR in 1,325 plate appearances as a member of the Athletics, the A’s won’t bring the free agent back. With Lowrie currently on the open market, Oakland acquired his replacement, Jurickson Profar, on Friday. The fact that Profar’s younger and cheaper than Lowrie led the A’s in that direction, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. While the 25-year-old Profar will earn a projected $3.4MM in 2019, Lowrie, 34, is seeking a three-year contract, according to Slusser. MLBTR estimates the switch-hitting Lowrie will find a three-year, $30MM pact, though Slusser writes that “many industry experts” are anticipating a two-year deal in the $18MM to $20MM range.
  • The Profar acquisition will also have an effect on A’s middle infield prospect Franklin Barreto, long one of their top farmhands. Trading for Profar suggests the A’s aren’t convinced Barreto can be part of the solution at second, posits Slusser, who adds that the team could shift the 22-year-old to the outfield (where he has racked up some experience in the Venezuelan Winter League) or even deal him. If Barreto does stick around, it’s likely he’ll “take on more of a utility role,” general manager David Forst said. Forst remains bullish on Barreto, as he added, “He’s going to be a valuable guy for us, his bat is going to play.”
  • Having acquired Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, most of the Cardinals’ heavy lifting for the offseason is already done prior to the New Year. The club hasn’t ruled out picking up another reliever to join Miller & Co., though, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. The Cards will also land a backup catcher – potentially by way of a minor league contract, per Goold – and perhaps another left-handed bench bat. St. Louis did acquire lefty-hitting reserve Drew Robinson from the Rangers earlier this month, but the 26-year-old utilityman hasn’t produced much in the majors and still has another minor league option remaining.

Nationals Have Shown Interest In Brian Dozier, Wade Miley

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The Nationals have expressed interest in free-agent second baseman Brian Dozier, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. They’ve also shown recent interest in free-agent left-hander Wade Miley, Dougherty adds, backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Dozier joins the previously reported DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as free agents who have been on the radar of the second base-needy Nationals this winter. However, Dougherty casts doubt on the possibility of Washington reeling in LeMahieu, who figures to receive the richest contract among the three. Regardless, with only Howie Kendrick – who’s coming off a ruptured Achilles – and the light-hitting Wilmer Difo as experienced options at the keystone, the Nationals may well attempt to upgrade there before the 2019 campaign begins.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Dozier would head to D.C. on a one-year, $10MM accord. Had he reached free agency a year ago, though, it’s likely Dozier would have landed a much more lucrative payday. Dozier was then coming off a five-year stretch with the Twins in which he racked up 21.7 fWAR (17th among position players) and 145 home runs (13th). Along the way, he authored a pair of the most powerful years in the history of second basemen – the 2016-17 campaigns, during which he combined for 76 homers (including 42, an American League record for his position, in ’16).

Dozier’s stock was certainly high 12 months ago, but it may now be at a nadir relative to the rest of his career. As a member of the Twins and Dodgers last season, Dozier did mash another 21 HRs and steal 12 of 15 bases in 2018, giving him five consecutive campaigns with 20-plus long balls and six straight with double-digit stolen bags. However, across 632 plate appearances, the 31-year-old only managed a .215/.305/.391 line – good for a 90 wRC+, the worst full-season mark of his career – and his lowest ISO (.175) since 2014. Statcast suggests Dozier didn’t deserve better than his offensive production, as his paltry expected weighted on-base average (.288) actually fell short of his real wOBA (.304). Dozier also earned negative marks in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. In all, the 2018 version of Dozier was worth less than a win above replacement at FanGraphs.

While Dozier’s on the market at a less-than-ideal time, the opposite may be true of Miley. After settling for a minor league pact with the Brewers last year, the former innings eater rebuilt his stock to a degree by notching a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP and a 52.8 percent groundball rate over 80 2/3 frames with the World Series contenders. The 32-year-old Miley’s success came in spite of subpar strikeout and walk rates (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball percentage (5.2), which could dampen enthusiasm about his future. Nevertheless, MLBTR estimates he’ll sign for two years and $12MM – a nice guarantee considering where his stock was a year ago.

Whether Miley will get his next contract from the Nationals is questionable at best, of course. They had interest in Miley between trading Tanner Roark to Cincinnati on Dec. 13 and signing Anibal Sanchez on Dec. 20, per Dougherty. While Dougherty doesn’t rule out a Miley signing, the Nats’ rotation may be set with Sanchez slotting in behind the all-world trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and likely in front of either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.

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