The Nationals have formally added a second veteran starter in free agency, announcing the addition of righty Zack Littell on a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2027 season. Littell, a client of CAA, will reportedly be guaranteed $7MM with another $2.5MM available to him via innings-based incentives. Left-hander Richard Lovelady was designated for assignment to open roster space, per the team.
Littell’s deal reportedly pays him a $3MM salary but also includes a $4MM buyout on that mutual option. Since mutual options are never exercised, that amounts to little more than an accounting measure; the Nats are kicking $4MM of his $7MM commitment to the 2027 books rather than the 2026 books. The contract is also said to contain $100K bonuses for every tenth inning pitched from 100 through 140. Littell can earn $250K for reaching each of 150 and 160 innings, and the deal has $500K bonuses upon reaching 170, 180 and 190 innings.
Heading into the offseason, we ranked Littell 35th among the offseason’s top 50 free agents, predicting a two-year deal. He’ll have to settle for just a one-year pact, and the righty could be on the move again relatively soon if the rebuilding Nationals move him at the trade deadline.
The 30-year-old Littell is a veteran of eight big league seasons but spent most of that time in a bullpen role. In the first five seasons of his MLB career, Littell posted a 4.08 ERA (104 ERA+) with lackluster peripherals in 169 2/3 innings of work. After the 2022 campaign, Littell rode the DFA and waiver carousel throughout the 2022-23 offseason. He eventually wound up with the Red Sox to start the season, but he made just two appearances in the majors before being once again designated for assignment. That led him to the Rays, with whom he managed to transform himself from a fringe member of the 40-man roster into a solid rotation arm.
Upon arriving in Tampa, Littell moved into a swing role for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. He posted a 3.93 ERA with a nearly matching 3.99 FIP in 87 innings split between 14 starts and 12 relief appearances. Littell’s 19.8% strikeout rate in those outings was hardly exciting, but he made up for it with pinpoint command that allowed him to post a 2.5% walk rate and an 8.2% barrel rate.
That control and command style was enough to earn him a full-time rotation job headed into the Rays’ 2024 season, and he rewarded the team with a career year. In 29 starts for the Rays in 2024, Littell posted a 21.5% strikeout rate against a 4.7% walk rate while pitching to a 3.63 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 3.81 FIP. His 156 2/3 innings of work made him just one of just 71 pitchers to throw more than 150 innings that year, and only 15 of those pitchers surrendered fewer runs than Littell.
Littell remained generally effective in terms of run prevention last year, logging a 3.81 ERA (111 ERA+) in a career-high 186 2/3 innings across 32 starts for the Rays and Reds. The bottom-line results were similar, but Littell’s rate stats took worrying steps in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate plummeted to just 17.1%, while his barrel rate jumped to 9.8% as he allowed the second-most homers in all of baseball last season. Perhaps some of that can be explained by Littell pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field and Great American Ballpark, but a 4.40 SIERA suggested that Littell was more of a back-end starter than his results may have indicated.
The result was a soft free agent market for Littell this offseason. A reunion with the Rays once seemed to be on the table, but Tampa Bay instead brought in Steven Matz and Nick Martinez. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that the Twins at least checked in late in the offseason, but weren’t inclined to match the Nationals’ offer.
The Nationals were the ones to ultimately bring Littell into the fold, with some past connections possibly helped complete the deal. New president of baseball operations Paul Toboni formerly worked in the Red Sox front office, new manager Blake Butera spent years managing in Tampa’s farm system, and new pitching coach Simon Matthews was the Reds’ assistant pitching coach in 2025, so all three have direct familiarity with Littell’s work.
D.C. is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot this year as they reboot their rebuilding efforts under Toboni. As such, the team has pursued just short-term and relatively inexpensive veteran signings like Littell and Miles Mikolas, and made another move for the future in trading MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers. The Gore trade diminished an already questionable Washington rotation, so Littell will reinforce a starting five that seems set to include Mikolas and another new signing in Foster Griffin. The last two spots in the rotation figure to go to some combination of Cade Cavalli, Brad Lord, Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker.
ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan were the first to report the agreement between the two sides. The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka (multiple links) had the details about the one-year term and mutual option. The Banner’s Andrew Golden first reported the financial guarantee. Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic added specifics about the breakdown and incentives.
Inset photo courtesy of Joe Puetz — Imagn Images
I guess AA missed this one too!
You would think the Braves would explain themselves. Got to a be a reason they are being so skimpy, especially with Profar’s 2026 salary off the books now.
They have explained themselves when it comes to starters. AA said he would not make a move unless it’s a TOR arm so it would have to be a trade at this point. Littell had a 4.88 FIP last year and gave up 36 HR. I’m guessing AA thinks he can get that kind of production (or better) from out of options guys like Elder and Wentz.
Elder had a 4.55 FIP which is around his career average. They can just throw him out there.
With what’s happened thus far this spring I don’t think the Braves are spending anymore $$. Going to wait to see how things play out… currently only $2mm over the first threshold of luxury tax. .if they start out slowly they can easily dip under the tax again this year.
It’s not just Profar’s money off the books, Braves also have Albies for 2/$14M remaining on the worst contract ever signed (player perspective).
Even without having to pay Profar they’re still up against the luxury tax. Wonder if they’re gearing up to a fire sale at the deadline if things go sideways again like they did last year. They didn’t do much except give Sale an extension and fiddle with their margins. Their window has slammed shut I bet.
Fire sale? Shirley you jest.
@bhambrace
I am jesting and don’t call me Shirley
What is AA doing? I know what he’s not doing smh
This obsession about getting a marginal starter when they already have three is beyond bizarre.
You know I can’t argue with that point…But it would be nice to have a concrete rotation arm like Littel, Giolito, etc. The Braves are one more injury away from claiming pitchers to make starts each week again all season. Do you wanna go thru that again? If nothing more than to not rush up a younger guy.
Signing Littell does nothing at all to add to the depth. If they sign Littell they would then have to get rid of one of the guys who are out of options. Littell is no better of a “concrete rotation arm” than Elder is.
You do realize that since the All Star break of 2023 Elder has a 5.50 ERA… pretty substantial sample size of terrible pitching. To think that Elder is better or equal to Littell is pure fantasy. Throw in the injury concerns with Lopez and Holmes as well still boggles my mind as to why AA hasn’t done something to bolster this staff to this point.
No one is banging the drum for Littell to be an ace or anything close. AA ignored SP again and we’re down to last few options….but i would definitely disagree that Giolito doesn’t have more upside than Elder, Wentz, Perez, etc.
And then there was one…………..
So they throw all the money they have left on the off chance that Giolito is better and doesn’t get hurt. then they whine when they can’t shore up the roster at the deadline because they’re functionally out of money to work with.
Who is the last pitcher AA acquired at the deadline to help the rotation anyways? 10-run Tommy Milone? I seriously can’t remember another…Deadline won’t matter if the rotation can’t hold up before.
I keep seeing posts about the deadline. Who exactly do you all anticipate trading at the deadline to bring people in? There’s very little that’s even enticing in the minors for anyone else to want, and even then you’re just further gutting it if you do.
I’m sorry but Braves continue to operate in the land of delusion. Whether it’s the current talent on the team or the expected talent to pull from to trade for more players. It’s really wild.
It’s over. AA and company blew their window in gloriously catastrophic fashion. They had so many chances to acquire better players and fill in the small holes they had in 2022 and 2023 but they “didn’t want to sacrifice the future”. So we didn’t spend – just so we could protect 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 —— How bright are these years that we protected for looking now? Two of them are already burnt. A third year is already spiraling before opening day and the back end 2 years don’t look promising at all.
This is the result of being too scared to go for it when the team was peaking, really solidify any holes, which yes comes at the expense of some of the now current years but what did you get out of these current years? Nothing is ever guaranteed.
Now we will limp along for the next 3 years while the FO operates like we are still a contender as it treads water to be a .500 ball club… enough in reach of the final WC spot they’ll have many of it’s fans convinced we are still a playoff caliber club but the reality is that it’s not.
By 2028 after Acuna walks away we’ll be in such a deep hole to rebuild this team won’t have a winning season until 2035.
OR
We could admit it now, avoid the charade above and be good again somewhere between 2030-2032.
Remember, this all on AA with how it plays out though. When this team has no capital to trade away for decent prospects and everyone has left because they won’t resign them and we are forced into an excruciatingly long rebuild all for the sake of limping along pretending 2026-2028 were high quality contending teams don’t cry about how long it takes to become relevant again.
@chipper how are Littell and Elder comparable? Elder has been awful for two straight seasons, Littell has always been solid
@2032: TL;DR
Why bother? He’s been on the same rebuild rant since they won the WS. Same old “AA blows, no farm, blah blah,blah…..”
@Patriot you can’t tell these guys nothing that agree with everything AA does. They’ll ignore everything we all see when we watch games…SP was #1 need this off-season and it was ignored yet again because of hope for health. I just hope the offense shows out and out slugs everyone and the rest of the rotation can somehow stay healthy.
Don’t “agree w/everything AA does.” Just sure that he knows a lot more about his job than you and the rebuild ranter do. Also positive that none of us—especially the group think gang and the rebuild ranter—-know what the FO tried to do this off season regarding trades and FA negotiations.
We all want to see the Braves dominate like they should and I don’t think anyone will argue that. Most of us recognize we need 7-9 capable SPs to get through a full season. It’s not my money nor anyone else’s so let us spend it like we want! lol….Side note, sorry Nats fans that us Braves fans have over taken this article!
Trading cash for talent at the deadline 2032.
Elder is in his age 27 season and it wasn’t suuuuper long ago when he made the all star team. As long as he’s healthy why not hope for a bounce back?
If they can’t upgrade over Wentz then AA has lost his touch, or has strict orders not to spend a dime or make any trades.
The problem has and will always be McGuirk. Yeah, we have one of the largest payrolls in baseball, but Terry tells Alex what he can and cant spend money on and apparently Terry hates spending on top pitchers. People hoping for a new GM in Atlanta wont get different results with McGuirk in charge.
Not to mention he has been posting under different names. Last season he was @tradeAcuna
I know it’s spring training and all, but to your point, I saw Elder pitch yesterday vs Rays B and C teamers and he got hit around a good bit. Elder should be a 6th or 7th starter, not a 4th or 5th. As if the Braves (or any Team) can make it through 162 with only 5 starters.
Littell is more expensive. Littell had bad “peripherals” last year, while achieving decent results. (why the bad peripherals didn’t effect the outcome is for someone else to explain, but they will tell you how last years numbers will effect this years outcome).
Do you not realize Elder would not be considered for the rotation without all the injuries? With 3 injured, he is the 8th starter on the depth chart. If you think he should be 6-7, that’s pretty strong depth.
Don’t worry, AA will find more cast offs that are worse when Lopez and/or Holmes go down. That’s his specialty.
Littell would not be considered for the rotation on any contending squad. That is why he was forced to sign with one of the worst teams in the league.
No $.
Littell is trash. No one cares that he missed this one.
This isn’t a defense for AA either. He’s equally terrible at his job. But let’s be real there’s no saving the damage that’s been created this late into the offseason.
It’s time to rebuild if anything.
@2032 in what way is Littell trash? He consistently has a sub 4 era. You guys have genuinely lost the plot, your advance stats are not a one size fits all. He gets good results, maybe your stats simply don’t fit his pitching style?
You can always tell who actually watches games and who just looks at spreadsheets.
Maddux
But did he? Sale and Strider are locks even if Strider is not the pitcher he used to be.
I think it is a vote of confidence in Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes to last until Schwellenbach returns. Ritchie is not far off. Lopez has higher upside than Littell by a wide margin.
Yes, the Braves will be just fine without mediocre backend starter Mark Littell.
No Littell signing at all, nice arm. Good pitcher.
Gave up 2nd most homers in MLB (36), 17% K rate. Nothing too nice about that.
Baz, Joe Ryan, DeGrom, Bibee, Pfaddt, Pepiot, Ober, etc. are also on the list of top 15-20 pitchers that give up homeruns….way to cherry pick stats. Especially for a guy Braves fans wanted for their 5th starter
Gallen, Imanaga and even Woo are in the top 20
I didn’t want him. Those are his numbers. Just facts. Didn’t cherry pick anything.
You didn’t want him, so you cited a stat that justifies it. Aka ‘cherry picking’ a stat. Bryan Woo is one of the best pitchers in the league, but no mention of him giving up a lot of homeruns correct?…I’m also ‘cherry picking’ a stat as a counter argument. See how it works?
Same amount of innings for the 2 of them. Woo w/10 less homers, ERA almost a run lower, K rate 27.5. Facts. See how that works?
Woo pitches in one of the worst hitting parks in the league and is still top 20 for pitchers giving up HRs. Littell pitched in a band box, Cincy. Facts. See how that works? (again)…Littell is no where near Woo in ability, but we can spin stats how we want all day long. Don’t try to justify when the Braves sit on their hands and do nothing to address the rotation, I sure won’t.
Opinions aren’t stats. You haven’t even listed a factual stat, much less tried to “spin” one. Saying that I didn’t want the Braves to sign Littell or Giolito for the reasons I’ve consistently stated isn’t an attempt to “try to justify” anything. I don’t need to “justify” not agreeing w/your opinion (“the Braves sit on their hands”) on how the FO has dealt w/the rotation. Not disputing your right to believe that, but I disagree with that point of view. My pov is that I favor JR Ritchie getting a chance at the 5th spot. I’ve also said that I prefer the Braves trade for a starter as opposed to signing a FA. I haven’t said that I’m satisfied w/the rotation or that I think that Elder, Wentz, Perez, or Suarez are the best the Braves can do in the last rotation spot. When I’ve said that the Braves appear to be satisfied w/the back of the rotation depth, it doesn’t mean that I want them to stand pat. I don’t. Imo, if they can’t trade for an upgrade over those four, they should use Ritchie until one or both of Schwellenbach and Waldrep are able to return. Keep 2 of the 4 as back of the pen long men/spot starters until then. Dfa or trade the other 2 if they don’t pass waivers. This isn’t “sitting on their hands.” It’s dealing w/the situation until better opportunities are available.
What ‘opinion’ did i reference? I’m confused by your argument. You referenced a stat so I countered that argument with another ‘stat’?….you said Littell is not good because he gave up a ton of homeruns. OK fair point, but so did some of the best pitchers in the league on that top 20 list. Not opinion, just numbers?…..I hope Ritchie balls out, but doesn’t change the fact Braves still need arms.
This post is about the Nationals, not the Braves. And it’s a good move for the Nats. They likely wouldn’t have signed Mikolas if they knew they’d be able to get Littell. The rotation is now a bit crowded, but having Parker, Alvarez and Cornelius in AAA for depth and after the inevitable mid-season sell off isn’t a bad move.
If Littell is traded mid-season, does the acquiring team have to take on that $4m plus a pro-rated part of the $3m and incentives? Guess the trade partners can have that be part of a negation over the prospect return.
The Nationals looked set to have the worst rotation in baseball. Pretty much anyone would have been an improvement. For $7 million that was a move they had to make.
Whether the team acquiring Littell at the trade deadline takes on the $4 million owed in 2027 depends on whether he sinks to the level of his 2025 FIP this season as expected and on what the Nationals want back in return.
I guess you can say he was a Littel too late
You can say that. Go ahead.
AA is more than likely going to stick with internal options based on how well everyone has pitched in spring training so far. If he adds a pitcher it will either be a castoff cut at the end of spring training, a trade or he will hold onto that 18 million until the deadline. I’m beginning to wonder if the lack of moves is not so much just Alex by himself or the owner, Terry McGuirk telling him no.
Not signing Littell has zero to do with ownership. It makes no sense to sign him when you have internal options who are out of options that can provide the same results. Littell does not help the pitching depth because, if they sign him, one of the out of options starters they have now will have to go. So why spend more money to get the same results and not add to your depth? Makes no sense.
Littell has a sub 4 era consistently saying he is not better than these 5 to 7 ERA Guys is a wild take
And a 17 percent K rate. He’s not going to be a sub-4 ERA guy for much longer.
…..allowed 36 homers too (2nd most in MLB.) Chop House in Truist would have killed him vs lefty’s.
Isn’t it amazing how good Littell’s run prevention was while giving up HRs and not striking out a ton. Think of how much better his numbers would be if he improved! If these are the results from him pitching poorly, take it and run.
Think of how bad he will be when he is not so lucky and his ERA rises to match his FIP or SIERA.
Which makes it look like Lady Luck was his best weapon last year. It’s funny how this thread was about a Nats acquisition but the Atlanta fans have totally turned it into a BravesFest. AA’s track record is generally good. Passing on Littell is smart. He doesn’t need him, and if he reverts to the mean, the Nats won’t need him either. But maybe lightning can strike two years in a row for Zack.
You Braves fans keep on with the Littell is no better than the OO guys you have.
Why do you think those guys are out of options? Because they’re marginal.
Why do you think Littell had to sign with the Nationals?
They’ll hold onto that money and claim to have that “dry powder” for the deadline and sign cast offs then. I just wish McGuirk was just come out and say they’re not going to spend money and quit with the lines and excuses.
Why does he need to say it. Seems like its common knowledge they don’t have the payroll space.
But they had the payroll space including Profar until a few days ago so that says they were comfortable spending $15 million more than now. The money is there to spend.
I missed where his appeal was heard. Even if they have $15MM, why is it burning a hole in YOUR pocket? There are few choices in FA remaining to spend on. Its better to wait for crunch time and see who might have found some ST breakouts that need a place in the rotation. Trade for the excess.
Great pickup by the Nationals. Opening Day starter, veteran presence, and deadline piece to be flipped. Love this for the Nats.
Okay, well there is Cade Cavali.
You are a very hopeful person.
Look at my comments on TCB and compare them to some of the others.
FGDC Projections
4.57 FIP, 1.3 WAR/143 innings.
heck yeah pick up that trade value zack
Hey Jazz, what was Littell’s projection last year? You do realize a projection is a guess.
His FGDC projection was 30-point rise in ERA from his 2024 season. He only rose by 20 points, so they were off a bit. Now they are projecting a 80-point rise in ERA, so if they are off the same 33%, he will end up only 59-60 points higher than his ERA in 2025.
That seems reasonable and right in line with what his SIERA was for 2025.
Good move.
The ole, hope he does well so we can flip him at the deadline signing. 🤣
They’re getting much for him, seeing how his free agency played out.
Why took him so long to sign?
About a third of the league’s tv money has been in flux this off season or had taken a hit the last two.
Mid tier free agents are bearing the brunt of that.
Because teams know that starters with a 17 percent K rate ain’t that good.
A ground out to SS is still an out and takes less pitches (sometimes). Might even be a double play. Strike outs are fascist. Ks only count more in fantasy leagues.
A ball in play can also score a run even if it results in an out and it can also induce an error. You may want to look into if one of those two happens more often than a double play ball.
Doesn’t it occur to anybody that AA has all the information on Littell and Giolito and doesn’t like what he sees for their asking prices? He knows his system and if he feels that what he has is the same or superior to signing either one of those guys why can’t he go in that direction? Unless they are discounted I wouldn’t want either myself. Just my thoughts.
That’s an awfully generous statement that he knows his system.
But I do agree Littell isn’t going to do anything for this club. We need to be looking at acquiring prospects for future seasons now. I’d rather they take on a bloated contract at the deadline of some useless veteran if it gives them a prospect attached in return for offloading someone else’s books.
He knows it better than you or I do considering that’s what he does for his job. We just argue about it online with what little info we have ourselves.
Doesn’t it occur to you that he had not planned for this many injuries to start the season and had spent to his limit before they occurred?
Doesn’t it occur to you that their payroll just dropped $15 million?
It’s occurred to several Braves fans on here. We’ve been getting shouted down the entire off season by the same group think opinions that several of the MLBTR staff also espouse—— “Why won’t the Braves sign Littell and Giolito?”
It’s not like Giolito and Littell were the only pitchers available this winter…?? Seems like the Braves are okay with significant innings from the likes of Elder, Wentz, Perez, Carrasco this year. Hardly a championship strategy.
Obvious they’re not now—-or ever were— expecting “significant innings” from Carrasco. He was re-assigned to mil camp last week. He’s mil depth only. Perez has only thrown a couple of innings and was signed to a mil deal. “Championship strategy…….” C’mon, good grief. Littell was signed by a rebuilding club. No other team that had a “championship strategy” wanted him. Giolito’s elbow injury at the end of the season has ruined his market. Who did you expect the Braves to sign? You know AA doesn’t do long term deals w/FA pitchers in their 30’s. Suarez, Cease, etc were never an option. The Mets had more to offer for Peralta than Atlanta. Just who did you realistically expect them to sign or trade for? If they decide to keep Ritchie up, or bring him up early in the season you can go on that all caps rant again about how they can’t count on young pitchers because it’s not a “CHAMPIONSHIP STRATEGY.”
Ritchie profiles as a mid rotation pitcher…at some point we’ll need to replace Sale at the top. And whose fault is it that we don’t have a strong enough farm system to compete with the Mets, others for top players in trade. We missed out on Crochet for the same damn reason. At some point perhaps a strategy change may be needed. As far as this year does anyone think we can get 100 innings out of either Lopez or Holmes?? Doing nothing this winter with this pitching staff makes no sense, especially after losing Schwellenbach and Waldrep.
Now with the Wentz injury if you don’t think Carrasco isn’t getting starts this summer you’re nuts. Not that Wentz is any big loss….
So you would have liked to have seen AA use Baldwin in a deal for a pitcher? Horrible idea to trade a solid prospect, premium position bat for a pitcher—even Crochet. You wanted AA to deal off the best prospects they have for 1 year of Peralta? Yikes. Btw, Schwellenbach and Waldrep were injured at the beginning of ST—not “this winter.”
Carrasco isn’t getting any starts—but keep ranting about that. Good for a laugh. “Wentz carted off, but walked into the clubhouse on his own. Doesn’t appear to be serious.” More room for Ritchie. More upside from Ritchie.
No…I would have wanted a farm system equal to that of the Mets or Red Sox so we could have made a competitive offer not including the likes of Baldwin. This organization keeps whiffing in the int’l market as well as the draft and it’s killing us. We have three years left of Acuña before he goes on to make north of $40mm and the window is closing. If we don’t ‘go for it’ NOW then when???
100% agree
Who do all of you expect them to realistically sign or trade for?
This teams is out of chances. There’s no one to bring up or trade away. Any “championship strategy” quite frankly has too many gaps to fill. They don’t have the money to fill them all.
This is all 100% accurate. The real question none of you are asking is why are we trying to have a championship strategy knowing the current state of the team?
I get that this is not necessarily a bad team either. But it looks like a middle of the pack team. One that doesn’t have a good farm system and watches a new player leave and new hole in the roster open up every offseason.
1. If you’re willing to spend your cover all of those holes, you could think about a championship strategy. We don’t have the money to fill them all properly though.
2. If you have a high quality farm system to promote and/or trade to fill in those holes you could think about a championship strategy. We don’t have a good system any more though.
Any rationale can conclude that your options are to keep pushing to be a middle of the pack team that steals the final WC spot…. OR…. Get proactive by scrapping things while there’s still some value on the team to shoot for a quicker rebuild.
This FO is picking the former, where it would rather be middling. And that’s fine. That’s an option. You might get the final WC spot – but any expectation that you’ll be the favorite, or even one of the top 5 favorites, in the playoffs goes out the window entirely.
Me? I’d rather not spend 2026-2028 trying to be the 10th best team. I’d rather we punt them altogether and hopefully come back by 2030-2032 as one of the top 3 best teams.
But if you think we will spend these next 3 years hoping to be the 10th best team and magically become one of the top 3 best teams in subsequent years I’ve got some bad news, that won’t happen.
We have to make a choice and I know it’s uncomfortable for fans to do the hard thing that leads to a lower quality team in the short term but it’s not giving up. You’re choosing to push the quality you do have and try to roll it up into higher quality at a later date, enough quality that hopefully it’s a top contending team.
But you are right. There’s no one to sign and there’s no one to trade for. You either ride in hoping to be the 10th best team in 2026 (and likely the near term r subsequent years) or pivot and try to be a better team in 2030-2032 timeframe (roughly… maybe you can do it more quickly… this is just an estimate).
@Braves…I don’t see as many holes on this team as you apparently do. We spent $38mm on our bullpen…$20mm on SS….$16mm on Dubon and Yaz. I believe our offense should be better…bullpen definitely better. Health of our Starting pitching is very scary to me…Strider doesn’t look the same…Lopez/Holmes health??. We’re better than 10th in MLB ..and remember we had the 11th best record in all of MLB in 2021 going into the playoffs.
Braves had the 2nd best odds to win the World Series before the Schwellenbach injury. Dropped but still way better than his “take.”
We’re a Joe Ryan type trade away from me feeling confident that we can win the NL East. But I’m not confident that will happen….
Well said as always, Nashville Jeff.
Any team that has Carlos Carrasco in the mix for a rotation spot before the season begins is in deep trouble.
Good thing that’s not the Braves then.
Carrasco was signed to a mil deal. He hasn’t been “in the mix for a rotation spot” just because he was one of a couple of dozen arms on the roster. He was quickly re-assigned to mil camp after getting blown up in the 2 brief appearances he made. He’s probably slotted in a mentorship role for the Braves solid AAA staff of good, young, near MLB ready arms.
Carrasco is not in the mix. Get it through your thick skulls. He’s minor league depth if they need someone to come up and make an occasional start or provide some long relief. That’s it
AA is gambling on Elder being the guy he was toward the end of the season. It’s a risk. Better hope no one else is injured before the other injured pitchers return.
I don’t think AA is counting on Elder, who is out of options. Sure, he had the most IP last season, but I’d imagine they’re hoping for some IP from Martín Perez and others more so than Elder, who really needs a good ST. He may get a couple of starts into the season as an audition, but could get the hook early, if not productive. Today, he gave up 5 ER (3 BB) vs. TB’s bench in ST.
Was really hoping the Angels would land him after getting some TV money.
Solid rotation piece.
Forget replacing Profar, we have White, Mateo, Wisely, etc. with Murphy and Kim on the horizon. Go to the Marlins with the 16 million and Caminiti for Alcantara.
The same Sandy Alcantara that has just 2 seasons of control, inc. a 2027 season that will almost certainly be affected by a lockout — and coming off a below-average return season at 82 ERA+ (100 is average)? He’s not worth ATL’s top prospect, even if their farm is undervalued. Caminiti looks like his floor is a mid-rotation piece, and that’s worth a lot more to ATL than what they’d get from Sandy, imho. MIA would love to get a rival’s top prospect, but I can’t imagine a new GM in Gabe Kapler could pull that off.
Civale landed 6M from the A’s and Littell is as good of an option as Civale so Id imagine it has to be comparable.
Its a good fit for Littell, has a runway to a full season of starts and that is the best for a pitcher in his position, he gets to start games this season without much pressure. Great soot for Littell, Nats could surprise in a dysfunctional NL East.
NL East isn’t dysfunctional, but I agree with the rest of your post.
Soot as in chimney
Nats are one of the 4 worst teams in MLB. Beginning another rebuild under a new FO. They aren’t going to surprise anyone. Horrify, maybe. Surprise? Nah.
The Nationals are whiskey bent and 5th place bound.
Nata bought a few mid-season trade chips with Littell, Mikolas, even guys like Weimer and Cionel Perez if they produce
But what of value are they going to get for those bums? Not much.
Doesn’t matter at this stage. Load up the farm with anybody they can get, any way they can, and hope enough of them eventually pan out.
Weimer. Ugh. We already have a defensive whiz who can’t hit in CF. Weimer a total castoff with little upside for a team that desperately needs bats. Perez? Little faith. As for Mikolas and Littell: That’s the Nats’ version of a big off-season acquisition — signing a mediocrity you might be able to trade at the deadline. It’s hard to be a Nats fan.
The “Mid” Atlantic
The DC sports scene is terrible. Caps, Commanders, Nats, and Wizards will all miss their playoffs. Leaves DC United to save the day, but they stink so an 0-5 year for the District
Well, at least there’s the Spirit and Rodman.
must be disappointing for littel. 1 year and a weak team like nats
was a perfect fit for padres, braves, rays…
gonna have to put in a career year to get the deal he really wants and with a contender next offseason. good chance he’s traded midseason, so mayb he can gain some momentum as he hits FA again
Littell is not a perfect fit for ATL unless they have a few (more) injuries. Lopez and Holmes are looking excellent (knock on wood) so far in ST, while Didier Fuentes is hitting 98mph and JR Ritchie continues to look like an Opening Day rotation staple. Elder looks consistently inconsistent, but hoping a new pitching coach can have an effect. Even Martín Perez is looking good so far. A lot of ifs there, but Littell wouldn’t move the needle much, especially knowing he’ll need to play catch up not being in a big league camp until now.
This is the not the post for this, but anyone noticing James Karinchak looking like his vintage self and a find of the season…? Yes, a cup of coffee, but so far — 4 G, 4.0 IP, 1 hit, 9K/2BB. (not to mention Hayden Harris being that southpaw we want Bummer being)
His career year has already happened.
The rays going with Matz and Martinez over Litell is a head scratcher imo.
The Rays pull pennant caliber teams out of a budget that’s basically pocket lint. They probably know something about all pitching that nobody else does.
It will be interesting to see what they do with Lord, Irvin, and Parker. Parker is overdue for conversion to a reliever. That was his projection coming up. Add some velo to his deceptive delivery and there might be something.
Not sure why Littell took this long to sign only to end up on the Nats in March. His underlying stats aren’t exceptional but he does have a significant track record as a FIP beater at this point, and even then it’s only a difference of like half a run throughout his career. I thought that maybe quite a few teams who are more competitive than D.C. would have been interested.
Interesting to note that Tim Dierkes had projected Littell to the Nats at the start of the offseason. Had him at 2 years, $24 million, so a lot under that, but he projected the nice fit.
Really good signing for the Nats and honestly surprised it took this dude this long to get signed. Solid if unspectacular pitcher.
Kind of anticlimactic.
A team like the Braves probably should have signed him, but good on the Nats for pouncing and picking up a solid potential trade chip for July.
They structured the deal so they’ll get less in a return but likely only pay him the prorated $3MM this year until they trade him at the deadline.
They could use an innings eater but unless they cover the buyout they’ll likely be looking at little to no return.
OK, I’ll ask one more time. What’s so solid about a 17% K rate and giving up the 2nd most homers (36) in MLB last year?
His 17.1% K rate was the lowest for qualified starters in 2025.
He doesn’t walk a ton of dudes, which helped limit the damage from those dingers significantly. He pitches to contact so he will get rocked sometimes but overall he’s efficient. Also can eat innings, he threw 186.2 IP last year. He’s solid in that he’ll keep the team in the game for the most part and can go 6+ IP to save some bullpen arms for another day. On a competitive team he’s a decent #4/5, and in fact he was much better than what some playoff teams rolled out as back end starters last year. For the Nats, he’s the one vet who doesn’t totally suck eggs so he gets to pretend he’s an ace for a few months.
Jarred Kelenic you seem to have some insider-y knowledge and great intuition about ball. Did you used to play?
I haven’t played organized ball since my sophomore year in high school over 15 years ago. The other kids were just better than me so I rarely got to start. Figured I’d find a more productive use of my after-school hours than running through all the drills every day just to maybe get 1 or 2 at-bats per game and an inning of defense at wherever coach wanted to put me. I still love the game and play slow pitch softball with my beer drinking buddies a few weekends a year. Mostly I just spend time combing through stats and arguing with strangers about it online instead of working though, lol.
LOL.
Another Nick Krall special. Traded a solid young arm, Adam Serwinowski for Littell at the deadline. Bad trade then and looks worse now. Not a mystery why some teams are consistently good every year, because they just stay away from making dumb moves. If you can do that, its half the battle.
I bet you Reds fans would be pissed off at them if they did nothing at the last deadline instead and missed the playoffs by 1 or 2 games.
Us Reds fans are just spoiled with all the winning we have done the last 10 years.
They did as little as possible which explains how they backed into the playoffs and had a quick exit despite kids who fought like hell with what they had.
Proably just hoping to catch trade deadline lightning in a bottle.
Good signing for the Nats. Hopefully Liitel and Mikolas will have a good first half and can be traded for prospects at the deadline. Everybody always needs pitching prospects, and the Nats need help everywhere . They don’t have a 1B prospect in the entire system. Ditto for the rest of the IF other than SS. Wallace it seems is no longer a prospect, and both King and Dickerson slid some. I really want House to work out because I like the kid, but…
The real problem for the Nats is that they can’t follow the same blueprint as the Orioles and Astros. Because of the lottery rules, being awful doesn’t guarantee you the first pick every year. Heck, even in years where the rules allow them to be eligible for the #1 pick, the Nats might not get it. Just ask the Bullets/Wizards. They’ve become “experts” at losing a lottery.
Depending on what the next CBA looks like, the Nats are still going to need ownership willing to spend money. I haven’t seen any evidence Ted Lerner’s kids care about winning enough to spend money. In fact, given that they tried to get Strasburg to agree to a retirement settlement that would have paid him less than he was contractually owed, IMO the Lerners are cheap.
The only thing that the Asstros has in their blueprint is how to bang on more trash cans.
Should we have signed Giolito instead?
This one belongs to the Reds
March 8, 2026
You can always tell who actually watches games and who just looks at spreadsheets.
You can always tell who’s a completely [donkey]
Literally no one just looks at spreadsheets and doesn’t watch the game.
There are a lot of people, though, who are so arrogant and ignorant that they they think they know a lot more than they do from sitting hundreds of feet away from the game or watching the fraction of the game they get shown on TV. Then basing their opinions off of batting average and ERA.
If you let these people watch a bunch of games of players they didn’t know without letting them see any stats they would have no idea who was good and who wasn’t.
Juan…I respect Reds takes because he used to play the game. They are grounded in pragmatism and the practical perspective of somebody who’s been thru the gauntlet, at least more than us casuals. Not saying this makes him always correct or infallible but generally I like his stuff.
ISoB
Do you like this?
“You can always tell who actually watches games and who just looks at spreadsheets.”
Cause it’s D as S
Well that is a sentiment that gets oft repeated on this website, going back years. Do you remember Samuel ? It’s a bit of an oversimplification, and a cliche, so no, not one of my favorites.
ISoB
“It’s a bit of an oversimplification,”
Naw
It’s just a D as F thing to say with no basis in reality.
There’s nobody who doesn’t watch the game
At least he’s not just listing someone else’s “projections.”
Nice WHIP the past few years
Great pickup, Nats!
Nats fans are happy.
Braves fans are upset Profar didn’t get popped earlier in the off-season so they had his money available earlier.
Braves fans are upset Profar couldn’t stay clean.
Well yeah. But at least he could have freed up the money sooner when there were better options to spend on earlier in free agency.
There are Braves fans above arguing the merits of eating stale bread vs thin gruel. When you could have had a decent meal.
“ Braves fans are upset Profar couldn’t stay clean.”
Only upset about this if he could perform off his special sauce.
I was really wishing they would have traded him (maybe to the Astros?), but they weren’t going to do that.
He had no value after the first suspension.
That’s what happened when you’re signing Ex-Padres players.
Littell is a rare case you can see a path to both sides exercising that mutual option. Wouldn’t bet on it, but if he has a subpar or injury lagged season, he would probably be in-line to get right about 1yr/$4M.
Although as I type that I guess that’s an incentive for him to turn it down, collect $4M and then go and get some other team willing to take a flyer on him because even if he signed for $1M he would essentially make $5M in 2027. I can see why these things never get picked up lol.
maybe mentioned below, but seems that reason for mutual option and buyout, along with incentives, is to shift most of the cost of his contract to whoever trades for him at the deadline. Nats would only pay a prorated portion of 3mm for the first 2/3 of the season.
Bye bye, Dick Lovelady.
Pretty optimistic post. His career year was last year. This year could just as easily slide into DFA-land again. It’s a Band-Aid pickup for a team with total question marks for starters. Even so, I see Cavalli, Lord and Irvin with a good chance to improve and get regular work, and the Griffin pickup might work out. Gray and Parker remain mysteries. The Alvarez kid looked good in ’25 in a brief tryout and he has looked good in ST so far. Mikolas and Littell are vets with mediocre career numbers, and just the kind of guys cellar dwellars pick up on the cheap. The term “innings eaters” no longer inspires, if it ever did. The Mets, Braves and Phillies will feast probably. There were better pitchers available as FAs, but the Nats won’t spend. So it goes.