March 10: The Phillies have formally announced Luzardo’s extension.
March 9: The Phillies and left-hander Jesús Luzardo have agreed to an extension, according to various reports. He was previously slated for free agency after 2026. It’s reportedly a five-year pact starting in 2027, which guarantees the Roc Nation Sports client $135MM. There is also a $32.5MM club option, though Luzardo can boost that by $2MM with each top five Cy Young finish, giving him a chance to potentially raise it as high as $42.5MM. He will receive a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded until he reaches 10-and-5 rights.
Luzardo, 28, was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and he has established himself as a legit big league arm in the past few years. With the Marlins in 2022 and 2023, he made 50 starts and logged 279 innings, allowing 3.48 earned runs per nine. His 7.9% walk rate and 40.1% ground ball rate were close to league average as he struck out a strong 28.7% of batters faced. His four-seamer and sinker both averaged in the upper 90s while he also made good use of a mid-80s changeup and slider.
He had a bit of a dip in 2024. He missed time due to some elbow tightness and also due to a lumbar stress reaction. He only made 12 starts on the year and had a flat 5.00 ERA. The Phils still liked the player enough to take a chance on him going into 2025. They sent prospects Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd to the Marlins in exchange for Luzardo and Paul McIntosh.
The bet paid off, as Luzardo returned to form in 2025. He made 32 starts and threw 183 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He also made two postseason appearances with a 2.35 ERA. He finished seventh in National League Cy Young voting.
As mentioned, 2026 was slated to be Luzardo’s final arbitration season before he would become a free agent. He and the Phils avoided arbitration by agreeing to an $11MM salary for this year. He could have played out the campaign and would have been in position for a strong contract if he had another good season. He’s currently 28 years and old, turning 29 in September.
The top free agent deals for starting pitchers have been around $200MM in recent years, with Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease all getting to that range. Fried got $218MM. The latter two got $210MM, both with notable deferrals.
Luzardo hasn’t quite put up the same kind of results as those guys. Burnes and Fried have posted ERAs under 3.00 pretty regularly. Cease has had a more wobbly ERA but with comparable strikeout and walk rates to Luzardo with greater availability. Luzardo would have been younger than everyone in that group, however. Cease and Burnes signed their deals going into their age-30 seasons, while Fried was going into his age-31 campaign.
Players who sign extensions a year from the open market generally sacrifice a bit of upside in exchange for the security of locking in a deal that is still quite large. Dating back to 2017, the top extension for a pitcher with service time between five and six years was $131MM over seven years for José Berríos.
Like Luzardo, Berríos was going into his age-28 season and would have been a free agent ahead of his age-29 campaign. Berríos was also generally a guy with an ERA in the 3.50 range, though with greater durability. Berríos agreed to his deal before working out a salary for his final arbitration season. When considering the $11MM Luzardo is getting in 2026, he will make $146MM over the next six years.
Waiting until after 2026 to sign could have led to an even greater contract, but it also would have come with risk. In addition to his aforementioned 2024 injuries, Luzardo also missed a few months due to a forearm strain in 2022. A notable injury in 2026 could have led to him heading into the winter with significantly less earning power, so he is taking the proverbial bird in the hand with this deal.
For the Phils, they have not been shy about spending money on starting pitching. Going into the 2020 season, they signed free agent Zack Wheeler via a five-year, $118MM deal. Ahead of the 2023 season, they gave Taijuan Walker $72MM over four years. Going into 2024, they brought back Aaron Nola with a seven-year, $172MM pact. They then extended Wheeler for $126MM over three years. They also recently locked up Cristopher Sánchez, who was still in his pre-arbitration years, with a four-year deal worth $22.5MM.
Going into 2026, Wheeler may start the season on the injured list but could be back fairly early. For the 2026 season, health permitting, the four primary starters will be Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez and Luzardo. The fifth could be Walker but also could be prospect Andrew Painter.
Looking ahead to 2027, Luzardo was slated for free agency and Walker as well. That would have left the Phillies with a core of Wheeler, Nola and Sánchez. Wheeler is signed through 2027 and plans to retire after that. Painter could theoretically fill one spot but he’s a big question mark right now. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2023 and 2024. He was back on the hill in 2025 but posted a 5.40 ERA in Triple-A.
Rather than waiting until next winter to address the 2027 rotation, they have proactively signed Luzardo to stick around. Since this appears to be a new contract, it shouldn’t impact the 2026 competitive balance tax. Luzardo will still have an $11MM hit this year. For the five years from 2027 to 2031, he’ll have a $27MM hit, the average annual value of his $135MM guarantee for those years.
The long-term books have a lot on them. As far out as 2030, the Phils have Nola, Luzardo, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner all signed to deals with CBT hits of over $24MM. RosterResource already projects the club for a CBT number of almost $160MM for that 2030 season, before factoring in arbitration players or any other deals signed between now and then. But the Phils have generally been fine spending on the guys they like as they keep this core going.
For any club who was hoping to make a run at Luzardo next winter, they will have to consider other options. The 2026-27 free agent class already feels a bit light and will now have one fewer marquee name. Tarik Skubal will headline the group of starting pitchers, followed by guys like Freddy Peralta, Kevin Gausman and others. Burnes, Sonny Gray and Tatsuya Imai and others could shake things up by opting out of their deals.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides had agreed to a five-year deal starting in 2027. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported the $135MM guarantee. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the option details. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported on the assignment bonus. Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images
Yay!
One had a feeling that this was going to be their play – all indications were that they preferred to extend Luzardo over Ranger Suarez. Time will tell, but they get more prime years; much higher velo / better overall stuff and similar injury concerns. As much as Ranger was a homegrown Phillie, if we take out sentiment then the logic makes sense.
100%
If Wheeler doesnt come back or comes back a shell of himself, he becomes the Ace ( hopefully ) and bridges/ nurses the next Phillies superstars like Painter n company
….you ever hear of Cristopher Sanchez?
A well deserved contract sir!
Congrats!
LIZARD KIIIIIIIING!
Smart move. Outstanding move by Phillies
Time will tell. Nearly a 4.00 ERA last season. Contract though shows both sides compromised, which is good to see. A big year and he could have commanded much more. Conversely, he locked in a nice contract regardless if he gets injured or has a poor season.
His ERA was as high as it was because he had a few horrible starts when he was tipping pitches. His ERA was 5.00 in 2024 and the Phillies weren’t dissuaded by that. Like pretty much every team, they aren’t relying on antiquated stats to make contract decisions.
Thanks Hammerin. I though still believe in an ERA as well as the team and stadium you’re playing in as at least to me having more value than the number of strikeouts for example that is overused in my book. Defense saves pitches and arms. The bandbox of the home stadium also plays big in my view. Add in his injury history and I still believe there is risk with this deal. As I mentioned though a big 26 and he’s looking for substantially more. Timing is everything
Nice deal for the Fightins
Nice move by the Phillies!
But will there be a 2027 season?
Glass half empty guy, eh? 🍻
Id say dramatic overpay and a sign of frustration in regards to the current situation with the payroll and the lack of depth on both the bench and in the rotation.
They would have been better off spending that cash on tax in ’26 and in signing Giolito for a run at the WS.
If every team appears to be “overpaying”, is it really overpaying?
I dont know, I like his K/BB, good pitcher, but spend to win this season if your going to spend and cut Luzardo loose. Giolito could have been the difference this season.
These two things are not mutually exclusive. One is signing an impending ’27 free agent to an extension. The other is signing a free agent. The Phillies can still conceivably sign Giolito.
Money is money, its a big honking debit on the balance sheet.
It definitely makes you think more about spending this season.
If you can theoretically save next season, its easier to spend this season.
If you take away that possibility, the possibility to save in the future, it becomes more difficult to spend this season.
Giolito is a bum, has been for the last couple of years
It’s also a long-term investment into the team.
I don’t know so many fans here are commenting under the pretense that a player strike/missing games is imminent. Not even the owners and players are as confident as some here of that happening.
I like Giolito at 10M on a one year deal with a 15M team option and that seems like a realistic possibility.
I think that would have been a better way to spend the money.
Dramatic overpay, whatever. He would have gotten quite a bit more on the open market.
Giving him $10 million would be a big mistake. Dombrowsky did well to extend a very good pitcher. He can’t afford to make any more mistakes like he did with the Taijuan Walker signing.
Here is a guy in Luzardo who gets ragged on year after year because of his inability to stay healthy, turns in one healthy, strong season, and is now worth taking a five year risk on at a significant AAV.
He has only thrown over 160 innings twice in his career.
If he has soreness at the end of the ’26 season, like Giolito had, he gets blown up.
’26/’27 is a thin market for pitching but there were some good options and running Luzardo into FA guves you one more season to evaluate his injury risk.
You can still extend Luzardoin the off season. Possibly on a similar deal, possibly on a better deal, than the one that you just paid, and if yku miss, you can overpay Morejon. You got Alcantara, Bieber, Bubic, Imanaga. Brady Singer is a good pitcher. Could stretch out Keegan Akin after another year of 12K/9 in the bullpen.
ABS
“Here is a guy in Luzardo who gets ragged on year after year ”
Who’s doing the ragging? Low information fans who care more about ERA and innings pitched than actual production?
“He has only thrown over 160 innings twice in his career”
Oh
He’s averaged just about $25 million in production over the last four years. So a contract that pays him $27 million a year is about right.
@JuanUribe, many fans and commentors on this very message board as I recall it and Id say its a good group of fans.
The lumbar issue may or may not be behind him. Thats likely a lower back, spinal alignment, nerve issue. Those come and go. I have one myself, can be dormant for a year or two but when it returns, Im down and out, can barely walk.
That may or may not be Luzardo’s issue. It is merely an example of the nature of lower back injuries.
Id say he still has injury risk and always will. Is it any higher than any other pitcher? Honestly, Id say slightly but not all that much.
Good pitcher when he’s on the mound, Hope he has five great seasons but as far as the Phillies and making a good decision to sign Luzardo, id disagree.
If they convince Wheeler to pitch three more seasons, Id say that would be an excellent signing.
ABS
“many fans and commentors on this very message board”
So, as I said, then. Nobody who really knows what they are talking about
Overpay? That’s the going rate plus he’s better than Ranger and got the same deal. Plus Luzardo is only making 11 million this year. Extension kicks in next year. If he goes out and has a year anything close to what he did last year this will be a smart move. He was lights out down the stretch and in the playoffs
BleacherCreature – your comment needs to reach Mike Elias at the Orioles warehouse on Eutaw
There are reasons why Giolito is still unsigned. Teams know more than fans do. His health issues and concerns have teams passing over him.
@Hank – you’re applauding 5yrs. on Luzardo and also saying the Phillies cant miss like they did on Walker (4yr/72M) but doesn’t the deal to Luzardo open up that exact possibility? How about this scenario?
A sore elbow at the end of ’26. A lazy off season in ’27 with a work stoppage into summer. A bad back due to poor conditioning and he never returns to form again with 135M in his pocket.
A one year deal with a one year team option on Giolito avoids any sort of long term risk, whther it be due to injury or due to decline in skill.
@Phillls, I read an article on this site earlier in the off season, Giolito was interviewed and was quoted as being in great condition, working six days a week, and feeling as strong as he has felt in years.
Something to that effect.
No 2027 season, then no $27 million salary.
But no income as well… dog meet tail.
Sounds about right. Really good pitcher, just can’t stay healthy or consistent from year-to-year.
Great move for the Phillies! Keeping an extremely talented pitcher for multiple years to come, this is what you do if you want to compete for the World Series.
Good for him. Seems a bit high for a guy who hasn’t exactly been able to stay on the field but if you have the money and are willing to spend it, who cares
Excellent move
Shrewd
6/146 including this year
Enjoyed watching him pitch for the A’s when he first got called up. It was obvious he was going to be great and he’s still only 27 years old. He’s a beast, hope he stays healthy.
Yes, another top prospect who’s done well.
Good move by the Phils
135/5 for luzardo is insane
Yes way too low. Better pitcher than Ranger Suarez and way younger so great value.
Better deal for the Phillies then the Nola contract.
He would have gotten more when he hit free agency.
Great extension for them. With a solid season I think he easily commands more than that in FA. His peripherals are all great.
Agree and yet, I feel like he could go the other way as well. So nice to both for locking it up.
His xFIP indicates that he should have better results with an improved Phillies defense with Justin Crawford. Not having Castellanos play the outfield will certainly help some. They were #22 in the MLB in DRS last season. The Marlins teams he played on also were bad at defense.
If he’s healthy he’s worth it…if
Smart move by he Phillies. I think he’s going to have one outstanding season and 2 good ones. At the price of pitching locking up talent always makes sense.
No good. Not with his extensive injury history.
Every pitcher has an injury history. Ridiculous comment
Thats a wild contract. Not sure it works out for Phils
How is it wild? Did you last watch baseball in 2005?
Because he is oft injured
He has risen, to sign an extension!
Future closer!
🙏
Five million more than the Sox gave Ranger Suarez and the same amount of years
Does it matter that Luzardo is 2 years younger than Suarez? Might have to the Phils.
Could have. Or the Phillies saw what Suarez got and gambled on Luzardo being willing to take a similar deal. The expiring CBA probably helped a little as well
Or they simply want to lock up a pitcher they value.
This, and Luzardo wants to secure his bag while he’s still able to. You never know when that arm could blow out.
Luzardo is the better pitcher when healthy. “When healthy” is the key, though. He’s only topped 150 IP twice in his career, and has missed some time in between his very good seasons. Suarez is a good pitcher too, just not as dominant. However he’s more durable. That they both received similar contracts this offseason isn’t totally surprising.
Suarez was far from durable. Fatigue and his chronic recurring back issues and other ailments would set in in the second half of every season.
This is a 4-D chess pitcher who just got his 2-D chess contract, which legitimizes him. Good for Luzardo.
He can think clearly now and represent the colours of V team.
Great move by DD to go with all the other solid long term deals. Seeing them all listed looks crazy. They have a ton of long term commitments, but good for them. Fixed costs and all that.
I honestly considered them for the WS when they got Luzardo last year. He’s a great arm
A’s traded him for a couple weeks of sterling marte .. another trade the A’s wished they never made
Remember when the A’s traded him for six months of starling Marte? Genius
To be fair he had a -1.4 bWAR campaign that year. Damn near a bust.
Luzardo is better then what his stats showed last year. He had two starts back to back near the allstar break where he gave up 8 to 9 runs each within the first and second inning. Every other start he was flat out dominant
“Every other start he was flat out dominant”
False, of course
fangraphs.com/players/jesus-luzardo/19959/game-log…
Juan,
Taking out the two back-to-back historic starts (20 ER in 5 2/3IP) and he’s at 3.04 ERA for 2025. Perhaps this is the pitcher they’re hoping shows up 33x in 2026?
PC
Sure
But he wasn’t “flat out dominant in every other start”
Wait a minute: if he’s traded even once and collects the assignment bonus, wouldn’t that prevent him from achieving 10-and-5 status throughout the duration of what is only a 5 year contract? That bit needs more explaining
JSK
I’m guessing that means when/if he reaches 10-5 with Philly that clause is no longer valid. He’d have to approve a trade at that point. And those often get some bonus negotiated
Why
Because they are smart.
Another pitcher who owes Cotham a Hellcat or something similar.
Glad this deal got done for sure….
He still pretty young. I remember thinking he was done after the A’s sent him to Marlins and he put up some bad numbers with Marlins for rest of the season. One of the biggest surprises of 2025.
Jesus!
Just my opinion, but I don’t see this working out well for the Phillies over the five years. We’ll see
Our opinions of how a particular player will age / perform / stay healthy are not worth much of anything at all.
What we do know is that the Phils have really prioritized pitcher health in recent years – including taking a deep dive into who they think has a better chance of remaining healthy due to mechanics, fitness, work ethic, body types and so on. The decision to devote the same basic deal to Luzardo vs. Ranger is likely reflective of their projections.
On the surface, Luzardo has an iffier health history. But Ranger has a back issue that has impacted him in every season and a lesser level of fitness. Seems like they feel more confident in Jesus moving forward.
All long term deals are a risk – especially pitchers. But if one wants to win, then at some point paying for potentially elite pitching is a part of the program.
Good for him getting his well earned payday.
All of the long term contracts are risks. The risks are factored into the length and amount of the contract along with the player’s age, track record, and too many other nuances to mention. The rich folks who own the teams know this and put out what they do based upon that – they aren’t rich because they don’t understand calculated risks.
If the player was guaranteed to perform and be immune to injury, the contract should be much higher.
A team can sign a guy to $10 years/$500M and the player could be struck by lightning and permanently disabled walking out of the building after signing it.
Pretty much every pitcher has an injury history at this point, too. They keep getting signed because those teams are trying to win.
Most fans would have written him off after 2024