Alex Reyes Undergoes Surgery On Torn Tendon, Likely Out For Season
The Cardinals received brutal news on touted right-hander Alex Reyes, as the 23-year-old was ultimately diagnosed with a torn tendon in his right lat that necessitated surgical repair (Twitter links via Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Reyes, who pitched four innings in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, is expected to need six months to recover, which would effectively end his 2018 season. The doctors did tell the team that they expect a full recovery, Timmermann adds.
The abrupt end to Reyes’ season is a transformative injury for a Cardinals rotation that was dreaming of six quality options: Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas, Luke Weaver, Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty (to say nothing of the rehabbing Adam Wainwright and depth arms like Austin Gomber and John Gant). While the very presence of Flaherty, Gomber and Gant should allow the Cards to field a competitive rotation even without Reyes and Wainwright, the group now looks thinner than the organization would’ve hoped. Martinez himself is only just back from a less-severe lat injury of his own, and he looked decidedly rusty in his first start since being activated off the DL yesterday.
Of greater concern, of course, is the long-term ability of Reyes to contribute in the rotation. While there’s no doubting the talent he possesses in his right arm, his four-inning appearance this season was his first action since the 2016 campaign. As Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch rightly points out (via Twitter), by the time the 2019 season kicks off, Reyes will have pitched just four MLB innings in a span of 31 months. That doesn’t even factor in a shoulder injury he had in the minors back in 2015. In all, the highest total of innings Reyes has ever thrown in a full season is 116 1/3 in 2015 (101 1/3 regular-season frames and 15 innings in the Arizona Fall League).
Reyes will continue to accrue MLB service time while he misses a second straight season rehabbing from a major surgery, meaning that by Opening Day 2019, he’ll have racked up two years, 55 days of service despite throwing only 46 innings at the Major League level. He’s on track to be eligible for arbitration following the 2019 season and can be controlled through the 2022 season as things currently stand.
Rays To Promote Jake Bauers
The Rays are set to promote top prospect Jake Bauers from Triple-A Durham, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The first baseman/outfielder will join the team for his MLB debut on Thursday.
Bauers, 22, entered the season to quite a bit of Top 100 prospect fanfare, ranking 43rd at Fangraphs, 45th at Baseball America and 68th at MLB.com. (He’s since risen to 42 at BA and 55 at MLB.com.)
Bauers is not yet hitting for a great deal of power but is off to a fine start in Durham, slashing .279/.357/.426 with five homers, 14 doubles and 10 steals (in 16 attempts). He’s drawn a walk in 10.4 percent of his 222 trips to the dish and has whiffed at a 21.2 percent clip. Defensively, Bauers has spent the bulk of his time in the field at first base, his primary position in the minors, but has logged 47 innings in the outfield corners as well (35 in left field and a dozen in right field).
Originally a seventh-round pick of the Padres back in 2013, Bauers went from San Diego to Tampa Bay in the three-team blockbuster that saw Wil Myers land with the Padres, sent Trea Turner to the Nationals and landed the since-traded Steven Souza Jr. in a Rays uniform. While that three-team deal features plenty of name value now, the Nats look to have come out quite a bit ahead thanks to the success of Turner (and righty Joe Ross, who’s currently mending from Tommy John surgery). Bauers, though, will now look to help the Rays recoup some value in his first taste of the Major Leagues.
C.J. Cron has hit quite well as the Rays’ primary first baseman, but Tampa Bay has received modest production from its outfield. With Kevin Kiermaier on the shelf and Denard Span traded to the Mariners, the Rays have been utilizing Mallex Smith, Carlos Gomez, Johnny Field and Rob Refsnyder in the outfield of late.
It stands to reason that the left-handed hitting Bauers could join that mix. Scouting reports on him indicate that while he’s a better defensive first baseman than outfielder, he’s slimmed down in recent years and can handle the outfield grass (or turf, as it were) adequately while chipping in with an above-average hit tool and average or better power at the plate.
The timing of Bauers’ promotion is such that he won’t be eligible for free agency until at least the end of the 2024 season, though his early-June debut figures to leave him on the bubble for Super Two arbitration status down the line.
There’s no exact cutoff date for that nebulous distinction, as it’s dependent on the service time of the other players in Bauers’ service class, but it seems likely that he’ll fall just shy of qualifying. There are only 116 days remaining in the season from the point at which Bauers will be formally promoted, and the lowest that the Super Two cutoff has fallen in recent seasons has been two years, 122 days of MLB service time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Claim P.J. Conlon From Dodgers, Designate Phillip Evans
The Mets have re-claimed left-hander P.J. Conlon off waivers from the Dodgers and designated infielder Phillip Evans for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the team announced to reporters following this afternoon’s game (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Conlon has been optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas.
Conlon’s time with the Dodgers, clearly, will prove to be abbreviated. Los Angeles only claimed him off waivers from the Mets last week, and the southpaw had yet to even pitch in a game with his new organization before being placed back on waivers. It’s nothing new for the Dodgers to claim a player and then try to run him through waivers themselves as a means of keeping him in the organization without committing a 40-man roster spot. It’s a move they’ve had a fair amount of success with in past seasons, though the Mets clearly didn’t see fit to let Conlon get away and seized the opportunity to reclaim the depth they lost last week.
Conlon, 24, allowed seven earned runs in his first two big league starts with the Mets this season, spanning just 5 2/3 innings. His struggles weren’t contained to the MLB level, either, as he posted a whopping 6.58 ERA in 39 2/3 innings spanning eight starts with Vegas this year. However, Conlon possesses solid numbers up through the the Double-A level and turned in promising K/BB numbers in Triple-A this year even while struggling with his bottom-line run prevention numbers. He’ll now return to the organization that originally drafted him and continue on as a depth piece.
As for the 25-year-old Evans, this’ll be the second time he’s been designated for assignment by the Mets in the past calendar year. He’s just 1-for-9 on the young season but hit .303/.395/.364 in a tiny sample of 38 plate appearances in the Majors last year. Evans is a career .273/.337/.445 hitter in 671 PAs at the Triple-A level and has experience at every position other than center field, first base and catcher. If he clears waivers, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, given that he was outrighted the last time he was designated by the Mets.
Athletics Select Contract Of Nick Martini, Place Matt Joyce On 10-Day DL
The Athletics announced today that they have selected the contract of outfielder/first baseman Nick Martini. He’ll take the active roster spot of outfielder Matt Joyce, who’s headed to the 10-day DL.
Soon to turn 28, Martini will get the first shot at the majors in his career. The former seventh-round draft pick signed with the Oakland organization as a minor-league free agent over the winter. He owns a .299/.417/.390 slash with 36 walks against 42 strikeouts in 216 plate appearances this year at Triple-A.
As for Joyce, he’s dealing with a lumbar issue but will have his DL stint backdated to June 3rd. The 33-year-old has to this point not hit to the standard he maintained over the prior two seasons. In 199 trips to the plate, he’s slashing .196/.308/.369 with seven long balls.
White Sox Outright Alfredo Gonzalez
The White Sox announced today that they have outrighted catcher Alfredo Gonzalez. He originally had his contract selected in late May.
Gonzalez, 25, only made it into three contests but did manage to record his first MLB hit during his brief stay with the Sox. He is a nine-year minor-league veteran who had almost no prior experience at Triple-A entering the season. Through 105 plate appearances this year with Charlotte, he produced a .169/.279/.191 slash.
Mariners Release Marc Rzepczynski
The Mariners announced today that they have released lefty Marc Rzepczynski. He had recently been designated for assignment.
It’s no surprise to see the 32-year-old clear waivers following the DFA. After all, he hasn’t performed up to the $5.5MM salary he’s promised this year. The M’s will foot that bill the rest of the way, excepting any league-minimum earnings he achieves if he can make it back to the majors elsewhere.
That said, other organizations will surely be glad to add some experienced left-handed relief depth, particularly if they have mechanical or tactical tweaks in mind to get Rzepczynski back to effectiveness. He has struggled mightily in 2018, and wasn’t very effective last year either, but has limited opposing lefties to a .222/.323/.333 batting line over his career.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasmani Grandal
When Austin Barnes overtook Yasmani Grandal late last year, it seemed the latter was a potential offseason trade piece for the Dodgers. Despite quality production over his tenure in Los Angeles, after all, he took just 11 plate appearances during the team’s postseason run. Instead, the Dodgers held onto Grandal in his final season of team control.
Now, more than a third of the way through the 2018 season, Grandal again seems like one of the game’s best backstops. He’s commanding the lion’s share of the time behind the plate, helping the club weather some devastating injuries and setting himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market. We’ll use this post to take a closer look at his free agent stock.
Grandal is among the highest-rated catchers this season by measure of fWAR, with 1.3 wins tallied to this point. He’s slashing a productive .246/.346/.451 through 205 plate appearances, with nine home runs and an appealing combination of a 12.2% walk rate and 22.0% strikeout rate. Statcast likes his batted-ball profile, crediting him with a .362 xwOBA that exceeds the .343 wOBA he has produced.
If anything, though, that WAR metric likely understates Grandal’s value, because it doesn’t account for his framing prowess. Baseball Prospectus’s measure, WARP, credits Grandal with 2.0 wins to date this year. But even that may undersell the backstop. He has drawn only slightly above-average framing marks from BPro this year, while StatCorner continues to grade Grandal as the best in the business. That was a shared assessment of both outlets over the past several years. And by measure of WORP, Grandal has contributed a whopping 17.2 wins over his first three years in L.A.
Teams will make their own fine-tuned assessments of defensive value, weighing considerations — pitch calling, pitcher management, etc. — that are all but impossible to assess from the outside. But everything in the data suggests that Grandal is a top-quality catcher. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a switch-hitter who has historically been best against right-handed pitching but still reaches base at a quality clip against southpaws. Grandal is still 29 years of age, too, and has been plenty durable to this point in his career.
So, how might that play in free agency? The catching market is something of its own beast, due in no small part to the fact that many of the best receivers have reached extensions before reaching free agency. Players such as Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy, Francisco Cervelli, Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yan Gomes have all signed away their prime years recently (or in the not-so-distant past), without testing the open market.
When premium backstops do hit free agency, they certainly can be paid. Brian McCann ($85MM) and Russell Martin ($82MM) have demonstrated that recently with high-dollar, five-year deals. Of course, the biggest contracts have still come between backstops and their existing teams. Joe Mauer inked his $184MM deal with the Twins when he was still catching, of course. And Mike Piazza worked out his massive deal with the Mets before technically becoming a free agent.
Clearly, Grandal isn’t in the rarefied air of Mauer, Piazza, and Posey. But is there an argument to be made that he ought to be able to approach McCann and Martin levels of pay over a five-year term? Grandal is on par with McCann in terms of age (both entering age-30 seasons as free agents) and a fair bit younger than was Martin. And though Grandal has not reached the heights offensively that McCann did at times as a young player, there’s a case to be made that his bat is roughly as appealing at equivalent stages. In the three years prior to his deal with the Yanks, McCann compiled a composite 113 OPS+, while Grandal presently sits at 111 since joining the Dodgers. Martin turned in a 105 OPS+ in the three seasons immediately preceding his trip onto the open market.
Whether Grandal will have a case for anything approaching that level of pay isn’t yet clear, but will surely depend upon still-unknown factors including how he performs the rest of the way and precisely how the demand side shapes up. It’s worth remembering that the Martin contract came in a fair bit higher than expected, when the Jays decided to add another guaranteed season. We’re also missing potentially relevant intermediate market markers, since several of the more anticipated possible recent free-agent cases have not been tested. Cervelli re-upped with the Bucs, Lucroy and Matt Wieters struggled in platform years, and Wilson Ramos was injured just before reaching free agency. At a minimum, though, Grandal seems clearly to be trending towards a contract that includes at least four guaranteed seasons and an annual salary in the $12MM to $16MM range. Of course, that also suggests he’s quite likely to receive a qualifying offer, which could dent his market somewhat.
So long as he can sustain something like his current output for the remainder of the season — which certainly seems reasonable given his track record — Grandal could represent an interesting test case for the market’s current valuation of catchers. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how things turn out given the presence of other useful catchers (including Ramos and the increasingly interesting Tyler Flowers) on the 2018-19 market and the fact that there’s now a widespread appreciation of the value of framing. With plenty of teams likely in need of new backstops, the catching market ought to serve as a quality undercard to the premium class of free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Have Considered Releasing Jose Reyes
The Mets have had internal discussions about cutting ties with veteran infielder Jose Reyes, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). With some upcoming roster decisions as players return to health, there could soon be added pressure to do just that.
Certainly, Reyes has done little on the field this year to stave off such a move. He’s slashing a meager .141/.208/.197, with just two extra-base hits through 71 plate appearances. While Statcast paints a slightly more promising picture — Reyes carries a .187 wOBA that’s well shy of his .250 xwOBA — the struggles can hardly be attributed solely to batted-ball misfortune.
While he brings defensive flexibility, Reyes hasn’t graded particularly well with the glove. Likewise, despite grading as a premium baserunner last year, he’s sitting at average in that regard so far in 2018. Just days away from his 35th birthday, Reyes has produced more negative value (-0.9 fWAR) than all but four other position players in the game.
Despite those less-than-promising numbers, Puma reports that there’s some hesitation from the Mets organization. Citing Reyes’s “roots” with the club, Puma says there’s a belief that he deserves a “proper sendoff.” That’s understandable, on the one hand, given that this is his 12th campaign with the club. That said, the circumstances under which Reyes came back to Queens — the Mets took him in when he was released by the Rockies after serving a domestic violence suspension — do not really speak in favor of any kind of preferential treatment.
Beyond off-the-field considerations, it’ll be tough for the Mets to hang onto Reyes given what he has shown thus far, despite the fact that he was a useful contributor over the prior two campaigns. As Tim Britton wrote today for The Athletic (subscription link), there’s a sense that the team is “teetering on the brink of another long, irrelevant summer” after it took a fifth-straight loss. While GM Sandy Alderson insists that he’s still optimistic and isn’t weighing a summer sell-off, climbing back into the postseason picture will obviously require the team to field a healthy and productive mix of players.
The Reyes question isn’t pressing just yet, but could be in the near-term. The team is carrying a five-man bench at present, with a roster that includes three catchers, four starters, and eight relievers. Upheaval is imminent, with Noah Syndergaard, Yoenis Cespedes, and Wilmer Flores currently rehabbing and perhaps not too far off from returns. With a wide variety of considerations in play, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
NL Notes: Nova, Hellickson, Murphy, Kemp
Pirates righty Ivan Nova seems reasonably close to a return, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. He received good reports after throwing a pair of simulated innings, suggesting that his sprained ring finger won’t keep him out very long. Obviously the club will wait to see how he responds before moving things forward, but it seems reasonable to think that Nova could make it back in relatively short order given that he last pitched on May 24th. The Bucs would certainly like not only for Nova to return, but also for him to turn things around on the bump. He carries a 4.96 ERA through 61 2/3 frames, though his peripherals have been in his typical range and suggest he has been a bit unfortunate.
Here are some more recent notes from the National League:
- The Nationals placed righty Jeremy Hellickson on the 10-day DL with a hamstring strain, but indications are that it’s minor, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. It’s not even clear that the Nats will need to find a fill-in starter, as they won’t need an extra rotation piece for a decent stretch. The DL placement, then, will actually leave the team with some added roster flexibility for the time being. Of course, it’d be preferable if there wasn’t an injury issue at all. Hellickson has been a gem of a minor-league signing thus far for D.C., turning in 43 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball over nine starts.
- In a health matter of equal or greater significance for the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman covers the latest on second baseman Daniel Murphy. Though it seems he’s in solid form with the bat, Murphy is still not looking to be at full speed on his legs. For the Nats — and, particularly, their medical staff — there are some tough questions as to how to bring Murphy along. It seems uncertain at this point whether the club can really expect him to function as a full-fledged, regular second baseman this year, which could pose some rather complicated roster questions. The situation is also concerning for the 33-year-old Murphy, of course, who had seemed primed to hit the open market this winter as a high-end hitter.
- What’s most amazing about Matt Kemp‘s remarkable two-month run with the Dodgers, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes, is not the fact that he’s off to a .344/.374/.568 slash. (Indeed, it seems there’s reason to anticipate those numbers coming back to earth, given his .400 BABIP.) Rather, it’s the fact that Kemp is suddenly grading as a solid defender in the corners, allowing him to rack up an impressive 1.8 fWAR in just under two hundred plate appearances. Sullivan examines the defensive component in an interesting piece that’s well worth a full read.
AL Central Notes: Santana, Rupp, Rodon, Miller
Let’s check in on the latest from the AL Central:
- There’s good news for Twins starter Ervin Santana, as conveyed by Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press on Twitter. After putting a hold on his rehab assignment a week ago, Santana is now just about ready to begin throwing again and may do so as soon as tomorrow. The solid veteran hurler will still need to complete a full ramp-up before he returns to the majors, but it seems promising that his earlier setback has only required a brief respite.
- New Twins backstop Cameron Rupp has an opt-out opportunity on July 15th, per Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). That will give the team some time to assess its situation at the MLB level, and to get familiar with Rupp, before deciding whether to promote him. At the same time, it allows the backstop a chance to find a new opportunity before the trade deadline, if he doesn’t come up with the Twins.
- The White Sox are finally set to welcome back lefty Carlos Rodon, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. It seems he’ll take a start this weekend, though it’s not yet clear who’ll end up being bumped from the rotation. Considered a can’t-miss prospect when he was drafted, Rodon zipped to the majors and has mostly been effective, with a 3.95 ERA over 373 2/3 career innings. While he surely could still iron some things out — in particular, limiting walks and long balls — the real question is his health after shoulder surgery late last year. Rodon has certainly bee in form on his rehab assignment, allowing three earned and carrying a 28:5 K/BB ratio in 17 2/3 innings.
- Indians lefty Andrew Miller seems to be making progress from the right knee problems that sent him to the DL. Per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, via Twitter, Miller will do some mound work today that will help with an assessment as to whether he needs a rehab stint. That seems generally to be a positive sign given the uncertainty when Miller was sidelined. Inflammation is hardly the most ominous diagnosis, to be sure, but in this case Miller has dealt with repeat problems in the same joint. He has also been unusually human on the mound this year, allowing seven earned runs and issuing an uncharacteristic ten walks over his 14 1/3 innings.