The Marlins Should Make A Change Behind The Plate
Agustín Ramírez was the worst defensive catcher in the majors last year. The Marlins haven’t yet given up on him but perhaps they should. They have one of the top catching prospects knocking on the door and there’s an open path for them to surge into contention this year.
31 different catchers caught at least 600 innings in 2025. J.T. Realmuto led the way with 1151 1/3, almost double the 605 2/3 caught by Ramírez. Despite catching notably fewer innings than most of the catchers in this sample, Ramírez led the pack with ten errors. He allowed 19 passed balls, which was more than twice as much as the next person on that list, as no one else allowed more than nine. He was also behind the plate for 36 wild pitches, which are technically the fault of pitchers, but a good catcher can occasionally save his teammates from those. Four of those 31 catchers allowed a few more wild pitches but all in larger sample sizes. In short, if Ramírez was catching, the ball was at the backstop a lot.
Those traditional stats aligned with more advanced ones. Ramírez was credited with minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Salvador Perez, at minus-15, was worse than him in that column. The Fielding Run Value stat at FanGraphs had him last at minus-12. Statcast credited him with minus-13 catching runs, ahead of only Edgar Quero. Baseball Prospectus was less down on him overall, having him merely as one of the 13 worst catchers, but they were the one outlet that didn’t like his framing work.
Presumably, the Marlins have been willing to tolerate this in the hopes that there’s a path to improvement. Ramírez has been a very strong hitter in the minors and could be an asset if his defense got to more passable levels. He put up a combined line of .268/.357/.473 at various rungs of the minors from 2023 to 2025, leading to a 128 wRC+. His 11.5% walk rate and 18.4% strikeout rate were both strong figures and he hit 46 home runs in 1,120 plate appearances.
But his bat hasn’t quite clicked in the majors yet, perhaps due to him focusing so much on trying to improve his defense. Ramírez did hit 21 home runs last year but with a low batting average and poor walk rate, leading to a lopsided line of .231/.287/.413. That resulted in a 91 wRC+, indicating he was nine percent below league average. That’s not bad for a catcher since backstops tend to be about ten points below par, but it’s not great when considering his glovework.
Going into 2026, there was an argument for moving Ramírez to a role as a first baseman and designated hitter. Moving to first would require some work but Ramírez did play the position some in the minors. Though Ron Washington will tell you moving to first is not easy, catching is considered the most rigorous position on the field and playing anywhere else would afford Ramírez more ability to focus on his hitting.
All of that is especially true when considering the presence of Joe Mack, who is one of the top catching prospects in the league. He is considered to be a very strong defender behind the plate. He reached the Triple-A level in 2025, getting into 99 games. His offense is considered more questionable than his defense but he slashed .250/.320/.459 for a 107 wRC+ with the Jumbo Shrimp last year. He was added to the 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
The Fish could have gone with Mack and bumped Ramírez to first base, a position that was fairly open. They didn’t go that way. They have continued to stick with Liam Hicks and Ramírez as their catching duo, splitting the time almost equally. Ramírez has been behind the plate for 122 innings, compared to 123 for Hicks. Hicks is doing fine, pairing adequate defense with a .314/.354/.523 line in the early going this year, though he’s not great with the running game.
Ramírez, on the other hand, hasn’t shown many signs of improvement. His 122 innings caught this year are about a fifth of last year’s 605 2/3. He already has four errors, almost half the ten he had last year. That’s tied with Quero for the league lead. He has allowed three passed balls, a better pace than last year but not by much. Francisco Alvarez is the only guy with more, at four. Ramírez has been behind the plate for nine wild pitches already, a worse pace than last year. Only Logan O’Hoppe and Drew Millas have allowed more. FanGraphs and Statcast have soured on his framing a bit, though in a very small sample.
The Ramírez/Hicks pairing impacts their pitchers in other ways as well, as neither is great as controlling the running game. The Fish allowed 191 stolen bases last year, easily the most in the majors. The Astros were a distant second on that list with 157. Miami only caught 24 attempted steals on the year. Technically, that was higher than the 23 that the Royals nabbed, but that was because K.C.’s catchers were run on far less, only allowing 47 steals. So far in 2026, the Marlins have allowed 37 steals, again the most in the majors. They’ve only caught three.
Catchers can sometimes provide value in other ways which are difficult to measure, such as working with a pitching staff. Even there, it’s hard to give the Ramírez and Hicks much credit. Starting last year, the Marlins began calling pitches from the dugout. Ramírez and Hicks might still be doing something in terms of communication and providing confidence but it’s fair to say they’re impacting intangibles less than catchers on other teams.
The offense from Ramírez also continues to lag, as he is currently sporting a .235/.303/.367 line and 84 wRC+ this year. It’s a small sample but he’s now up to 694 career plate appearances with a .231/.290/.406 line and 90 wRC+.
Mack, meanwhile, continues to do well in Jacksonville. In his first 83 plate appearances for the Jumbo Shrimp this year, he has three home runs and a huge 19.3% walk rate. Even with a subpar .267 batting average on balls in play, he has a .224/.373/.388 line and 115 wRC+ this year.
Perhaps there are service time considerations at play. Mack is a consensus top 100 prospect in the league. The Fish could have put him on the Opening Day roster and made him eligible to earn the club a bonus draft pick as part of the prospect promotion incentive. They opted not to do that. At this point, they probably are thinking about the flip side of the PPI. Eligible players who are not promoted in the first few weeks of the season can be awarded a full year of service retroactively if they finish in the top two of rookie of the year voting.
If that were to happen, it would be the worst of both worlds for the Marlins, in a sense. They would not get a bonus pick and their window of club control over Mack would be a standard six, as opposed to being juiced to six-plus. From the team’s perspective, you’d ideally not be in that middle spot.
But the downside of keeping Mack down is that the major league club is likely worse off. With prospects, there are no guarantees of immediate success, so it can’t just be assumed that Mack will boost the big league squad. But since a big part of his appeal is his defense, he should be a lock to at least be an upgrade over Ramírez in that regard. On offense, perhaps he would struggle with the promotion, but it’s not as though Ramírez is crushing the ball so far this year.
The Marlins have received a combined .192/.248/.279 line from the DH spot this year, resulting in a 47 wRC+ which places them ahead of just the Pirates and Rockies. Putting Ramírez in there, and having him focus less on catching, could theoretically be good for the lineup.
And turning back to the PPI situation, there’s also some space opening up. Sal Stewart has nine home runs, a .291/.385/.602 line and 1.2 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. JJ Wetherholt is at 1.1 fWAR and Moises Ballesteros at 0.9. On the pitching side, Nolan McLean is at 1.3 fWAR and Rhett Lowder 1.0. It’s theoretically possible for Mack to come up and have a monster finish while some of those other guys struggle, but getting into the top two of voting is going to be tough when those guys already have a decent head-start.
On top of all that, there’s a window for the Marlins to have a special season. On paper, they came into the year as the fourth-best team in the division, in the eyes of most evaluators. But the Phillies and Mets are both out to awful starts. It’s still early, and the Marlins are only four games clear of those two clubs. But since the Mets and Phillies are 9-19 right now, there’s a real chance they can’t climb back into contention and end up selling at the deadline. In that situation, the Marlins would still have to battle the other N.L. clubs for a wild card spot, since it feels like Atlanta will run away with the division, but Miami’s chances feel a bit better than a few weeks ago even if they’re only 13-15.
Even putting aside the early-season standings, which could change in a hurry, this feels like a move the Marlins should make. All signs point to Mack being the long-term answer behind the plate. Ramírez, meanwhile, would seemingly be better served as a bat-first player. Perhaps the Marlins are hoping that another club will take a chance on Ramírez as a catching project, which would allow them to use him in a deadline deal, but it’s hard to envision that when progress isn’t really being made.
Photo courtesy of Mady Mertens, Isaiah J. Downing, Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
Can Chase Dollander Defeat Coors Field?
Rockies right-hander Chase Dollander fired seven scoreless innings to earn a win against the Mets on Sunday. The outing lowered his April ERA to a pristine 1.29. He’s piled up 34 strikeouts over 28 innings this month. Sunday’s outing was the first traditional start of the season for Dollander. He’d pitched exclusively out of the bullpen to begin the year, typically as a bulk reliever following an opener.
Dollander’s win over the Mets came at Citi Field. It was his fifth appearance on the road this season, compared to just two games at Coors Field. The young righty has been able to tame the hitter-friendly venue so far. Dollander allowed a run over 4 1/3 innings at home against the Phillies in his second outing of the season. He limited the Padres to a run across six innings early last week, piling up nine strikeouts. Colorado scored one run total in Dollander’s two home games, saddling him with the loss both times.
The Rockies took Dollander with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the No. 2 prospect in the system in 2024, behind only infielder Adael Amador. Dollander struck out minor leaguers at a healthy 33.9% clip that season. The hard-throwing righty debuted with the Rockies last year. The results were brutal in basically every regard. Dollander struggled to miss bats, failed to find the strike zone consistently, and was frequently barreled. His 6.52 ERA was backed by an xFIP and SIERA near 5.00.
Dollander has taken a step forward in multiple areas in his second attempt as a big leaguer. He’s added a tick to his fastball, which was already extremely hard for a starter. Dollander’s four-seamer is sitting at 99 mph this year, ranking fourth among all pitchers. He’s more than doubled his sinker usage, contributing to a well-above-averge 51.9% groundball rate. Despite the increase in sinkers, Dollander has a strong 13.4% swinging-strike rate.
Keeping the ball on the ground while getting ample whiffs is a great recipe for success. Dollander’s 55.7% hard-hit rate stands out as a red flag, but it’s not turning into damage due to the type of batted balls he’s permitting. Only 8.9% of the contact against Dollander has been pulled in the air. Hard-hit balls on the ground and to the opposite way are generally going to lead to better outcomes for a pitcher than pulled air contact.
Colorado brought in Paul DePodesta to run baseball operations this offseason. He’s tasked with reviving a club that hasn’t won 70 games since 2021. The organization is currently in a seven-year playoff drought. DePodesta’s tenure is off to a solid start. The Rockies are just three games under .500 after sweeping the Mets over the weekend. The acquisitions of TJ Rumfield (trade) and Troy Johnston (waiver claim) have been additive, as has the signing of Tomoyuki Sugano. The Johnston addition came shortly before the DePodesta hire was announced, but it’s still part of what looks to have been a productive winter. DePodesta didn’t draft Dollander, of course, but his regime will be in charge of the righty’s development. The decision to initially use Dollander behind an opener, whether it came from manager Warren Schaeffer or the front office, proved fruitful.
Coors Field remains the most difficult place to pitch in the league. Per Statcast, it has a 112 overall Park Factor over the past three seasons, which ranks first by a significant margin. Chase Field is second on the list at 105. Colorado’s stadium ranks first in park effect for runs, OBP, hits, singles, and doubles, which makes sense given the spacious dimensions. The thin air in Denver also limits the effectiveness of breaking balls, forcing pitchers to reconsider their arsenals.
The Rockies have had the occasional pitcher break through with a productive season, despite the difficult home environment. Kyle Freeland finished eighth in ERA with a 2.85 mark in 2018. Jon Gray had a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the late 2010s. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin formed a formidable duo in 2013, each posting sub-3.50 ERAs over 30+ starts. ERA is far from the only relevant pitching stat, but it’s a reliable marker for a successful season in a venue that boosts run production like no other.
Ubaldo Jimenez stands out as one of the only starters to have extended success in Colorado. He’s the name that gets whispered whenever a Rockies pitcher brushes up against relevance. The righty entered the rotation on a full-time basis in 2008. He racked up 16.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference) over the next three seasons. The walks were a bit high, but Jimenez limited damage with the help of a diverse arsenal. The 2010 campaign was his masterpiece. Jimenez posted 221 2/3 frames of a 2.88 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning. He earned an All-Star selection and finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Jimenez had better numbers on the road, but not by much. He held opponents to a .661 OPS and a .294 wOBA in 101 2/3 innings at Coors Field.
Jimenez was the rare pitcher to perform worse after leaving Colorado. He had one good year after getting traded to Cleveland, but didn’t find much success beyond his Rockies tenure. Jimenez did provide what would seem to be a viable blueprint for surviving at Coors Field: above-average velocity, a diverse arsenal, and a pitch mix that isn’t overly reliant on breaking balls. Dollander checks those boxes. He uses a changeup instead of a splitter, but the rest of the repertoire lines up with peak Jimenez. It’s around 60% four-seamer/sinker, 12% changeup, and then a smattering of breaking balls (slider/curveball/sweeper). Dollander has also improved his walk rate to 6.9%. Even in Jimenez’s stellar 2010, he issued free passes at a double-digit clip.
Dollander is just 28 appearances into his big-league career. It’s a seven-game sample of positive results. There’s plenty of season left for him to succumb to the Colorado conditions, which aren’t limited to home games. Rockies players also have to adjust to leaving the Denver altitude for road trips. But the formula is there for Dollander to conquer Coors Field.
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images
Jack Flaherty’s Difficult Start
The Tigers brought back Jack Flaherty on a two-year, $35 million deal heading into last season after a resurgent 2024 campaign. The veteran righty wasn’t as effective in his second year with the club, but he maintained strong strikeout numbers while matching Tarik Skubal for the team lead in starts. Flaherty’s underlying metrics suggested a bounce-back effort was on the table for 2026, but the results have been concerning so far.
Flaherty was battered for six earned runs over two innings on Saturday against the Reds. He came into the outing having allowed just one home run this year, but Cincinnati took him deep three times. The clunker pushed Flaherty’s ERA to 5.33 across 25 1/3 innings. His xFIP (5.94) and SIERA (5.48) are even higher than that mark. The lone positive from the Cincinnati game was Flaherty’s two walks. It was the first time this year he’d issued fewer than three free passes, though getting yanked after two frames probably helped.
The clear concern for Flaherty is the control. He hasn’t been in the zone often enough to be effective. The 30-year-old right-hander has piled up 22 walks through six starts. He moved past A’s righty Luis Severino for the league lead this weekend. Severino’s 21 walks have come in six more innings. Flaherty has posted career-worst numbers in zone rate (43%), strike rate (56%), and swinging-strike rate (9.2%).
The new ABS challenge system has led to walk rates ticking up around the league, but that doesn’t seem to be the reason for Flaherty’s struggles. His 16.9% called strike rate is right in line with his career norm. Detroit leads the league in correct challenge rate at 84%. The club ranks first in Statcast’s Overturns vs. Expected metric, which tabulates net ABS results by a team using a comparison to similar pitches. Opponents have won 42% of challenges against the Tigers, which is the 12th-lowest mark. Maybe an approach change by Flaherty to adjust to the new system has led to the increase in walks, though his pitch mix and locations look relatively normal.
After stumbling through a 2023 campaign split between the Cardinals and Orioles, Flaherty revived his career with the Tigers in 2024. He delivered a sub-3.00 ERA with a career-best 32% strikeout rate over 18 starts. After bringing in Flaherty on a modest one-year, $14 million agreement, the Tigers were able to cash in at the trade deadline, sending him to the Dodgers for a pair of prospects. Neither Thayron Liranzo nor Trey Sweeney has emerged as an impact contributor for Detroit, but it was still a good bit of business at the time. Flaherty grabbed a World Series ring with the Dodgers, then came back to the Tigers in the offseason.
Flaherty had the opportunity to opt out of his Detroit deal after 2025. He chose to remain with the club for $10MM this season, plus another $10MM earned by making 15 starts last year. It was an unsurprising move, as Flaherty was coming off a middling campaign and was unlikely to make much more on the open market.
Detroit made one of the biggest starting pitcher additions over the winter, adding Framber Valdez on a three-year, $115MM pact. The club is paying Skubal a record $32MM via arbitration. Justin Verlander‘s one-year, $13MM contract won’t break the bank, but it’s another investment on the pitching side that contributed to the club’s $217MM payroll (per RosterResource). With Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, and Troy Melton on the 60-day IL, the Tigers’ pitching depth has thinned out. Verlander has only made one start this year as he deals with a hip injury.
The rotation has been a strength outside of Flaherty. Skubal’s contributions remain Cy Young-caliber. Valdez has been a steady presence. Casey Mize actually paces the group with a 2.51 ERA. The former No. 1 overall pick is off to one of the best starts of his career. Keider Montero has filled in admirably for the injured Verlander. Getting Flaherty back on track would give the Tigers one of the more formidable rotations in the American League as the club looks to make it three straight trips to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of Aaron Doster, Imagn Images
The White Sox Have Decisions To Make With Munetaka Murakami
Slugger Munetaka Murakami had to settle for a two-year “prove-it” deal with the White Sox this past offseason. It’s still early in the major league career but he is quickly proving it, which means the Sox have to decide on the path forward.
Murakami’s power was never in doubt. His time in Japan had yielded dozens of massive moonshots. The strikeouts were more concerning. He struck out almost 30% of the time in his final NPB seasons. Coming over to North America to face a greater caliber of pitching would probably lead to even more strikeouts. There were particular concerns around his lack of success against high velocity, which he would certainly see more of in MLB.
It’s hard to be a valuable hitter with that many punchouts, though it can be done. In 2025, Mike Trout and James Wood were good hitters despite striking out at least 32% of the time. Ryan McMahon and Oneil Cruz were also in that range and produced below-average results.
Many evaluators thought some team would bite the bullet and invest in Murakami regardless. It’s very rare to have a chance to sign this level of hitter for his age-26 season. There’s risk he could be like Joey Gallo but the upside play is that he resembles Kyle Schwarber. MLBTR predicted he would secure an eight-year deal worth $180MM. Other outlets were not far behind. FanGraphs predicted $154MM over seven years. The Athletic was at $158.5MM over eight years.
Murakami did not get anything close to that. Whether it was due to the strikeouts or his lack of defensive value, teams didn’t want to make a long-term commitment. He signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the White Sox.
We don’t know what other offers Murakami got. Maybe some teams floated three- or four-year arrangements. But from his perspective, if he didn’t get the real long-term offer, going short makes sense. As mentioned, he is still quite young. This deal gives him a chance to spend two years proving himself against big league pitching. He’ll be 26 and 27 in those seasons and will have another chance to seek a long-term deal ahead of his age-28 campaign.
It was thought that maybe there would be an adjustment period for Murakami, but so far he’s doing just fine. The strikeouts are certainly high, as he’s at 32.1% through 109 plate appearances. But he also has ten home runs and a massive 19.3% walk rate. He has a .253/.394/.598 line and a 170 wRC+.
The production is not exactly Schwarber-esque but is pretty close. Schwarber has a 28.5% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t finished a full season above 31%. He has drawn walks at a 14.2% clip and has been in that range for most of his career. He used to be good for 30ish homers annually but it’s been more like 50ish in recent years. It’s still really early, but Murakami is striking out more often while showing even more power and greater on-base abilities.
Time will tell how it plays out over a larger sample. It’s possible that pitchers find a way to attack him and reduce his effectiveness. Despite the concerns about velocity, he’s doing most of his damage against fastballs. Statcast gives him a .286 batting average and .786 slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to .200 and .400 against breaking pitches and .267 and .467 against offspeed stuff. It’s also possible he continues to get more acclimated to MLB pitching and shaves off some punchouts.
If he continues to be an effective hitter for another few months, it will put the White Sox in an interesting position. It doesn’t feel like Murakami is going to be part of their long-term plans. They are currently rebuilding and aren’t expected to contend this year. The Sox are getting better relative to recent years but are 10-15 and should be on the outside of the playoff race this summer. 2027 could be more viable, but contending next year is no guarantee.
The White Sox could try to sign Murakami to an extension, giving him the nine-figure deal he didn’t get in free agency, but it would be out of character for them to do so. The Sox are one of just two teams, along with the Athletics, who have never given out a nine-figure contract. The largest contract in White Sox franchise history is the five-year, $75MM deal they gave to Andrew Benintendi. If he continues performing anywhere close to this level, he could reasonably ask for twice that much (if not more) on a new long-term deal.
If the Sox are going to break precedent, it should probably be for someone safer, an elite shortstop or center fielder perhaps. A strikeout-prone first baseman is a risky bet, even if it’s someone as exciting as Murakami. If the deal turned into an albatross, it would handcuff the team just as they are looking to put this latest rebuild in the rearview mirror.
This situation would lead to an obvious solution in most cases. If you’re a rebuilding club and you have an attractive player with a short window of club control, you trade him for prospects or other younger players who can contribute to the next competitive window. Trading Murakami this summer would yield a greater trade return than next year. The acquiring club would get Murakami for two playoff races instead of one, which adds to the appeal and the price they would be willing to pay.
But Murakami’s situation is a bit more complex than that. For a team signing a star Japanese player, part of the appeal is on the business side. In addition to whatever Murakami is providing on the field, he is presumably adding to the club’s ratings and merchandise sales in Japan. Given his strong start, he might be adding to those revenue streams on this side of the Pacific Ocean as well.
That could make the calculus more complicated. Trading Murakami this summer would be the best time to maximize his value in terms of a trade return, but it would also surely lead to a reduction in those revenue streams and frustrate the fan base. It’s also possible it could complicate discussions with Japanese free agents in the future, who may not love the prospect of a likely sign-and-trade scenario.
If the Sox decide to hold Murakami, they can keep those revenues flowing for longer. They could then see if contention in 2027 looks more viable. If not, they could still trade him that summer for a notable return, even if it’s less than trading him now. Should they contend and hold him all the way through 2027, they could give him a qualifying offer, which would net them a draft pick if he ends up signing elsewhere. That pick would be nice, but the Sox should be able to get something more attractive via trade. There’s also the risk of Murakami tanking his value by next summer, either due to injury or a decline in production.
It’s an interesting position for the Sox, who are in a transitional phase. In addition to rebuilding, they are on an unusual road to an ownership change. Jerry Reinsdorf has agreed to a succession plan with minority owner Justin Ishbia. For now, Ishbia is investing in the club and has a somewhat open-ended path to majority ownership. From 2029 to 2033, Reinsdorf can decide to finalize the sale of a majority stake to Ishbia. If not within that window, Ishbia gains the right to purchase the majority stake beginning in 2034.
As mentioned, the possibility of a Murakami extension doesn’t seem likely, based on the club’s past spending patterns. While the club is in flux, does that make them even less likely to sign a big deal? It’s also possible the next collective bargaining agreement features some sort of salary floor beginning in 2027, so the Sox may need to spend more money regardless. Perhaps they would want some clarity on that before committing to Murakami or anyone else.
Put it all together and Murakami could be one of the more intriguing players to watch in the coming months. The Sox can make various different choices about how to proceed. They could try to lock him down with a long-term deal but would likely have to shatter their franchise record to do so. A trade this summer would net a big return but would hurt them on the business side. Holding him for a trade in the winter or at next year’s deadline, or even all the way through 2027, could be a better short-term business decision but perhaps worse long-term baseball decision.
Photos courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images
Poll: Should The Blue Jays Make A Closer Change?
The defending American League champions have had a difficult first few weeks. Their 10-14 record has them in fourth place in the AL East. The relief group is a big part of that, as the Jays rank 23rd with a 4.81 bullpen ERA. They’ve blown seven leads, tied with the White Sox for third most in MLB (behind the A’s and Nationals at eight apiece).
The problems have extended to the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been charged with three blown saves, which is tied for the MLB high. That doesn’t include Tuesday’s rough outing against the Angels.
Hoffman entered with a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. After striking out Zach Neto, he allowed four consecutive batters to reach. Skipper John Schneider turned to Louis Varland with the bases loaded and a 4-2 lead. Varland promptly got Nolan Schanuel to bounce into a game-ending double play. That technically went down as a hold for Hoffman because he recorded an out and left the game with the lead, but it obviously wasn’t what the Jays wanted from their closer.
After the game, Schneider was noncommittal on sticking with the righty in the ninth. “We’ll reevaluate everything, talk with him, see how he’s doing. He’s going through it obviously a little bit,” Schneider told reporters on Wednesday (links via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Jared Greenspan of MLB.com). “We’ll see (about his role).” The skipper noted they’d take advantage of Thursday’s scheduled day off to discuss things with the pitcher.
Hoffman has made 12 appearances on the season. He has allowed at least one run in six of them. The 33-year-old righty has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) over his first 10 2/3 innings. Hoffman has given up 16 hits, walked six batters, and hit a pair on Tuesday. He has successfully locked down a trio of saves.
The bottom line results have been terrible, but Hoffman ranks near the top of the league in strikeouts. He has fanned 24 of 57 opponents, a monster 42.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, only Mason Miller has a superior strikeout rate. Hoffman’s 21.2% swinging strike percentage is also second behind Miller’s unbelievable 30.3% mark. All four of Hoffman’s pitches have missed bats and his velocity is at usual levels.
There’s clearly some amount of bad luck in Hoffman’s early results. Opponents have hit above .600 when they’ve put the ball in play. If he were coming off a dominant 2025 season, the Jays would surely give him more rope to allow the batted ball variance to even out.
However, his first year in Toronto was up and down. Hoffman recorded 33 saves but ranked second among relievers with 15 home runs allowed. He had a 4.37 earned run average across 68 regular season innings. Hoffman was excellent for the majority of the postseason until allowing the famous Miguel Rojas home run in the ninth inning of World Series Game 7 — his only homer and blown save of the playoffs.
If the Jays move Hoffman out of the ninth, Varland would be the obvious choice to replace him as the closer. Last year’s deadline pickup has begun his ’26 campaign without allowing an earned run through 13 innings. He has fanned 19 hitters against three walks. Varland has been an excellent setup man but has no closing experience. Tuesday’s one-pitch outing was the first save of his MLB career.
Varland has clearly outperformed Hoffman through a few weeks, but naming him the closer would limit Schneider’s flexibility to use him earlier in games. No Toronto pitcher has entered in higher-leverage situations on average than Varland, as the biggest at-bats aren’t always in the ninth inning. Hoffman is third in that regard, also behind the already optioned Brendon Little. The Jays also have Tyler Rogers and Braydon Fisher in key late-game roles.
How should the Jays proceed?
How should the Blue Jays approach the ninth inning?
2026-27 Club Options: AL East
A couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald highlighted the players who could choose to return to the free agent market via opt-out clauses. We’ll now take a division by division look at those whose contracts contain club, mutual or vesting options. That kicks off tonight with the AL East.
Although it’s early in the season, a lot of these provisions are fairly easy to predict. The mutual options are almost certain to be declined by either the player or team (usually the latter). They’re accounting measures, essentially an unofficial deferral within the term of the contract itself. The player agrees to push back a percentage of the guaranteed money to the end of the deal in the form of an option buyout — which is paid after the end of the World Series rather than evenly distributed during the regular season as salary.
Baltimore Orioles
- RHP Zach Eflin: $25MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
Eflin’s return to the Orioles was dashed by yet another injury: an elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. The O’s probably weren’t signing up for a $25MM salary even if he’d stayed healthy this year, but this is as obvious a buyout as these decisions get.
- LHP Dietrich Enns: $3.5MM club option ($125K buyout)
Enns pitched well for the O’s down the stretch after a deadline trade from Detroit. The 34-year-old southpaw worked to a 3.14 ERA while striking out 28% of batters faced across 28 2/3 innings. Although he’s nowhere close to six years of MLB service time, his contract contained a 2026 club option that presumably had a clause ensuring he’d become a free agent if the team declined. That’s fairly common for players like Enns who had spent the preceding couple seasons pitching in Asia.
The O’s restructured Enns’ contract to pay him a $2.5MM salary and guarantee a $125K buyout on a $3.5MM team option for the ’27 season. He has walked five batters over 4 1/3 innings to begin this season. Enns landed on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a foot infection. He began a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Saturday. This one is too early to judge.
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle: $7.5MM club option
Mountcastle agreed to tack on a $7.5MM option to avoid going to an arbitration hearing last offseason. Speculatively, that’s probably due to the CBA provision which doesn’t fully guarantee salaries determined at an arbitration hearing until Opening Day. Had Mountcastle not settled, the O’s might’ve released him for termination pay during Spring Training after making a splash on Pete Alonso earlier in the winter.
Although the O’s were surely happy to get the extra year of club control, it probably won’t be of much benefit. Mountcastle broke a bone in his left foot last week and will miss at least two months. It’s his second straight year with a significant injury. He lost a couple months to a hamstring strain in 2025. Mountcastle was already an odd roster fit who’d make more sense as a trade chip. Maybe he’ll return in the second half and hit well enough that the O’s feel the option price is too good to pass up, but it’s likelier this is getting declined.
Boston Red Sox
- LHP Aroldis Chapman: $13MM mutual option ($300K buyout); vests at $13MM at 40 innings pitched
Chapman’s option vests if he reaches 40 innings pitched this season and passes an end of year physical. He has surpassed 40 frames in three straight seasons. He’s at 7 2/3 innings thus far. It’d take at least one injured list stint — probably an absence of 6-8 weeks — for him to fall short of 40 innings.
In any case, the Sox would be happy to have him back at that price if he’s healthy. Chapman was probably the best reliever in MLB last season, firing 61 1/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a 37% strikeout rate. The punchouts are down early this year in an exceedingly tiny sample, yet he has only allowed one run and is 4-4 in save opportunities. He remains at the top of his game at age 38.
- RHP Sonny Gray: $30MM mutual option ($10MM buyout)
Gray restructured his contract as a condition of the offseason trade that sent him from St. Louis to Boston. The deal initially came with a $35MM salary for this year and a $5MM option buyout. Gray agreed to move $4MM of salary back to the buyout while picking up an extra $1MM as a condition for waiving his no-trade clause. He’ll be a free agent.
- RHP Garrett Whitlock: $8.25MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Whitlock’s contract comes with an $8.25MM team option that includes $4MM in unspecified escalators. There’s also a $10.5MM club option for the ’28 season. Whitlock has been one of the best setup arms in MLB throughout his career. He rebounded from an injury-plagued ’24 season to fire 72 frames of 2.25 ERA ball with a 31% strikeout rate last year.
The righty’s command has been a little wobbly this year and his sinker velocity is down a couple ticks. Still, he’s only allowed two earned runs while striking out 11 through his first nine innings. No other Boston reliever is getting higher-leverage assignments on average. This is one of the likelier options to be exercised.
New York Yankees
- None.
Tampa Bay Rays
- 1B Yandy Díaz: $10MM club option; converts to $13MM option which automatically vests at 500 plate appearances
Tampa Bay preemptively locked in Díaz’s $12MM club option for the 2026 season during Spring Training ’25. In exchange, the first baseman gave the team a $10MM option for ’27 that would vest at $13MM as long as he stayed healthy enough to reach 500 plate appearances. Díaz is a little over 20% of the way there. Even if he suffers an injury that takes the vesting provision off the table, he’s been such a good hitter that Tampa Bay would probably be happy to exercise the $10MM option.
- RHP Nick Martinez: $20MM mutual option ($4MM buyout)
The mutual option in the Martinez contract was purely one of the aforementioned accounting mechanisms. The Rays aren’t paying him a $20MM salary even if he pitches to their expectations. He’ll be bought out.
- CF Cedric Mullins: $10MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
The same is very likely true for Mullins. A $10MM option price is rich for Tampa Bay unless the former All-Star outfielder has a resurgent season — in which case, he’d decline his end and look for a multi-year deal. The early returns aren’t encouraging, as Mullins is hitting .156 with two homers through his first 21 games. Over the past calendar year, he’s a .194/.257/.336 hitter.
- RHP Drew Rasmussen: $8MM club option ($500K buyout); option could escalate up to $20MM depending upon Rasmussen’s health and innings total
Before the 2025 season, the Rays signed Rasmussen to a two-year deal that bought out his final arbitration years. It included a complex club option for 2027 that was heavily dependent on his health. The option comes with an $8MM base value but includes up to $12MM in escalators based on starts and time spent on the injured list.
Rasmussen had only once topped 80 MLB innings at the time of his extension. He has undergone multiple elbow procedures and broke into the league as a reliever because of durability concerns. Rasmussen has stayed healthy over the past year-plus. He pitched a career-high 150 innings en route to a top 10 Cy Young placement in 2025. He’s out to a similarly excellent start to the ’26 campaign, allowing just four earned runs through his first 19 2/3 innings.
The option value will begin to climb before long. It’ll jump to $8.5MM once he reaches eight starts and includes additional escalators for every fourth start up through 28 appearances. If he makes 28+ starts, it’d jump to a minimum of $14MM. That’s just the beginning, as the number climbs if he avoids a long-term injured list stint. It’d get up to $20MM if he goes the entire season without an arm injury.
At $8MM, Rasmussen is an unmitigated bargain even for a low-payroll Rays club. The escalators will probably climb quickly enough that he’ll be a trade candidate. That could happen midseason if the team isn’t in the playoff hunt or early next offseason if they hold him at the deadline. If Rasmussen repeats last year’s production, he’s not going to be in any danger of being bought out — as closer Pete Fairbanks was when escalators pushed his option value from $7MM to $11MM.
Note: The Rays hold a $3.1MM club option on INF Taylor Walls. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines.
Toronto Blue Jays
- CF Myles Straw: $8MM club option ($1.75MM buyout); Guardians paying Toronto $1.75MM at season’s end as part of 2025 trade
The Blue Jays acquired Straw in a salary dump trade with the Guardians over the 2024-25 offseason. Toronto agreed to cover $11MM of the remaining two years and $14.75MM on Straw’s underwater contract. (He’d gone unclaimed on waivers that same offseason and was no longer on Cleveland’s 40-man roster.) In exchange, the Guards sent the Jays international bonus pool space. Toronto could then increase their offer to Roki Sasaki by an extra $2MM in a late, ultimately unsuccessful effort to sway the star NPB pitcher away from signing with the Dodgers.
Sasaki’s decision to join L.A. made this initially look like a complete bust for Toronto. To his credit, Straw has salvaged the move. He made the team in 2025 and did a nice job in a fourth outfield role, hitting .262/.313/.367 while playing his typically excellent outfield defense. He’s out to a good start this season as well and provides a high-floor depth option if Daulton Varsho misses any time.
Will that be enough to convince the Jays to keep Straw around? They certainly didn’t anticipate exercising an $8MM option at the time of the trade. That’s made clear enough by the teams’ agreement for the Guardians to send Toronto a $1.75MM payment — which matches the buyout value — at the end of the ’26 season. Cleveland is sending the money either way, though, so it’d amount to a $6.25MM call if the Jays want to bring Straw back.
That’s a little rich for a fourth outfielder, which is what Straw has been for the last few seasons. Varsho is an impending free agent and the Jays don’t have anyone waiting in the wings from the farm system. Straw’s play and the possibility of Varsho walking has made this a tougher call than even the Jays’ front office would have anticipated.
A Look At The Twins’ Intriguing Start
The Twins received an “F” grade from MLBTR readers during our Offseason in Review series. The fact that only 42% of voters deemed the winter a complete failure might have been an upset. Minnesota’s biggest developments of the offseason were the unexpected departure of president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Pablo Lopez‘s elbow surgery, and … Josh Bell. With 39% of voters giving the Twins a “D” grade, it’s clear the general consensus was that the Twins would not be walking at graduation.
Minnesota’s first five games went as expected. But after a 1-4 start, the club found some momentum. The Twins swept the division rival Tigers in a four-game set. They took series from the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The team dropped a game to the Mets last night to fall back to an even .500, but they’re still tied with Detroit for the 2nd-best run differential in the American League.
A 12-12 record certainly isn’t anything to write home about, but the beginning of the campaign has gone about as well as Minnesota could’ve hoped for, given minimal investment in the club heading into the year. The Twins’ $107MM payroll is down nearly $30MM from 2025. Here’s a look at some of the moves that have spurred Minnesota so far, plus what it could mean when the trade deadline rolls around…
Taj Bradley, reliable starter
The Twins landed Bradley as part of the mass bullpen selloff at the 2025 trade deadline. He came over from the Rays in a straight-up swap for reliever Griffin Jax. It’s been a clear win for Minnesota up to this point, particularly with Jax falling out of the high-leverage mix in Tampa Bay. Bradley has a crisp 1.63 ERA through five starts. He’s boosted his strikeout rate to a career-best 28.8% in large part due to an improved splitter. Bradley’s top swing-and-miss pitch has nearly three additional inches of vertical drop this year. The splitter has generated an elite 43.8% whiff rate.
Bradley isn’t going to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA all season. The right-hander’s xFIP and SIERA are nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. He’s getting ground balls at a career-low 34.7% clip, while allowing a significant level of hard contact (93.6 mph average exit velocity – 2nd percentile). Given Bradley’s previous struggles with the home run ball, that’ll be worth monitoring as the weather gets warmer and the ball starts traveling. Even if Bradley is a mid-3.00s ERA starter with above-average strikeout stuff, that’s a major boon for a Minnesota rotation without many trustworthy options beyond Joe Ryan.
Mick Abel, backend starter (when healthy)
Speaking of the pitching staff, Abel was emerging as a fixture before going down with elbow inflammation. It’s not expected to be an extended absence, but it was a disappointing diagnosis following back-to-back scoreless outings for the young righty. Abel came over as part of the package from Philadelphia for closer Jhoan Duran. He scuffled in his first two appearances (one in long relief), then shut down the Tigers and Red Sox over 13 frames.
Abel and Bradley both struggled in their initial stints with the Twins last year. It seemed like a leap of faith to expect either one to be a positive contributor in 2026, and Minnesota was relying on both of them. The club didn’t add to the rotation after the Lopez injury, leaving Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson as the top options, along with the two young righties. Any crack in the group would be a problem, but Minnesota’s starters rank ninth in ERA right now.
Taylor Rogers, experienced setup man
Rogers’ return was Minnesota’s only major-league signing on the pitching side. The Twins grabbed him on a cheap $2MM agreement. He joined a bullpen lacking proven arms after the group was completely cleared out in July, with five core pieces heading out in various trades. Rogers coughed up the lead last night against New York, but he’d been solid before the outing. The veteran lefty has secured three holds and has generally been effective in high-leverage situations. Heading into Wednesday, Rogers had only been scored upon in two games, both of which were with Minnesota facing a deficit.
Josh Bell, hot streak extraordinaire
Bell will have a three-week stretch every season where he looks like an MVP candidate. It may have already happened for 2026. Bell had three hits in the final game of the sweep against the Tigers, pushing his OPS to 1.066 through 13 games. He’s cooled off from there, but it’s still a solid 116 wRC+ across 96 plate appearances. The Twins added Bell on a one-year, $7MM deal. He’s provided a nice boost to an offense that ranks in the top 10 in scoring. The Victor Caratini signing (two years, $14MM) hasn’t worked out as well, but adding a pair of veteran switch-hitters has given the lineup a bit more flexibility.
Will it matter?
This probably isn’t a roster headed toward an AL pennant run. It’s probably not even a squad equipped to end Minnesota’s three-year playoff drought. The key will be whether the Twins are competitive enough not to be sellers at the trade deadline. Ryan would be among the prizes in July, assuming Minnesota is once again open for business. Could a couple more months of .500 ball be enough to convince ownership this team can compete in an uninspiring AL Central? The early returns have been fairly positive despite a tepid offseason.
Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images
Dillon Dingler Keeps Getting Better
There was a time not too long ago where Dillon Dingler seemed to be on track to be a backup catcher. That’d have been a perfectly fine career, but it now seems he is so much more than that, which is great for him and the Tigers.
Dingler was a second-round pick of the Tigers in 2020. For most of his time in the minors, the book on him was that he had a great defensive skill set but his ceiling would be capped by a propensity for swinging and missing.
In 2022, Dingler spent the entire year at Double-A. He hit 14 home runs in 448 plate appearances and drew walks at a solid 10% clip, but his 31.9% strikeout rate was far too high high. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% last year. The highest qualified hitter was Ryan McMahon at 32.3%. Players generally strike out more as they climb the minor league ladder and face tougher competition. With Dingler already whiffing at a high rate in Double-A, it would be natural to expect his rates to increase as he got to Triple-A and then the majors.
That season dimmed his stock a bit. Baseball America had him as the No. 4 prospect in the Tigers’ system going into 2022 but bumped him to No. 7 ahead of the 2023 season. Going into 2022, FanGraphs had Dingler at No. 4 in the system and even slotted him in as the game’s No. 108 prospect. Tthe following year, Dingler was off the Top 100, dropped to No. 7 in the system, and given a 45 FV (future value) on the 20-80 scale. The May 2024 scouting report from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen provides a good snapshot of how Dingler was viewed at that time:
“The athleticism and receiving to be a do-it-all defender behind the dish is here, and much of Dingler’s prospect variance is tied to whether his hit tool and medium-sized frame will enable him to be a primary catcher or just a luxury backup. He swings through a ton of in-zone fastballs and really struggles to get on top of anything in the upper third of the zone. There aren’t many catchers capable of punishing mistakes with power the way Dingler does, but his bat-to-ball ability is also comfortably worse than the typical hitter at that position. He shares quite a few similarities with Jake Rogers and should end up playing a lot, producing about 1.5 annual WAR in a low-end primary catching role.”
The 2023 season didn’t improve the way he was viewed. Injuries limited him to 89 games, including 26 at the Triple-A level. He punched out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and put up an ugly .202/.266/.384 line. Going into 2024, the Tigers gave him a 40-man spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but BA knocked him down to No. 9 in the Detroit system. FanGraphs bumped him down to No. 10 and dropped his FV to 40+ (again, on the 20-80 scale).
Dingler’s 2024 was something of a mixed bag. His results at the Triple-A level were very encouraging. He took 301 trips to the plate and trimmed his strikeout rate to 20.3% — a massive improvement. His 10% walk rate was still good, and he hit 17 home runs. His .308/.379/.559 line translated to a 145 wRC+. That got some help from a .337 batting average on balls in play, but there were a lot of good signs regardless.
However, Dingler also got his first taste of the majors and delivered more worrisome results. It was a small sample size of 87 plate appearances, but his 34.5% strikeout rate was the exact kind of thing that prospect evaluators were concerned about in previous seasons. His .167/.195/.310 line was obviously unpleasant.
Last year was a breakout. An early injury to Rogers opened up some playing time, and Dingler ran with it. By the end of the year, he had appeared in 126 games. His defense received strong grades, as expected for a guy who was considered a glove-first prospect. He was credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, putting him among the top 15 catchers for that stat. FanGraphs had him as one of the game’s 10 best pitch framers. Statcast had him in the top ten in terms of framing, throwing and blocking. He won the American League Gold Glove for the catcher position.
The offense was arguably more notable, given his past reputation. Dingler’s 23.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than average but very tolerable and certainly better than his minor league work. His 4.9% walk rate was subpar, but he hit 14 home runs and slashed .278/.327/.425 for a 109 wRC+. That was juiced by a .345 BABIP but was encouraging nonetheless.
So far in 2026, he’s been even better. It’s a tiny sample of 83 plate appearances but his walk rate has moved up a bit to 6%, still well below average but an uptick nonetheless. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 16.9%. He has a .264/.346/.528 line and 145 wRC+, despite a subpar BABIP of .264. Statcast puts his average exit velocity in the 84th percentile of qualified hitters. His hard-hit rate is 96th and barrel rate 95th.
As mentioned, that is a small sample and maybe he can’t maintain it. But at this point, Dingler has 639 career plate appearances. Even with his nightmare start in 2024, he has a combined .261/.311/.421 line, 104 wRC+, 4.9% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate. That walk rate may even increase, since he usually walked about twice as much in the minors.
Maybe the strikeouts will creep back up, but there are some encouraging indicators under the hood. Dingler had a decent eye, hence the walks in the minors, but he would miss when he did decide to swing. As mentioned in the pull quote above, a big problem was him missing balls in the strike zone, not so much a problem with chasing.
His contact rate in Double-A in 2022 was 67.8%. For context, the major league average last year was 76.4%. In 2023, when he was still striking out a lot in the minors, his contact rate was 70.6%. But in 2024, he got that up above 76%, both in the majors and in the minors. He was at 77% last year and is at 78.5% so far in 2026.
It’s possible that pitchers adjust how they attack Dingler. Perhaps due to his reputation, 53.8% of the pitches he saw last year were in the strike zone. That was well above the league average of 41.9%. In the early going here in 2026, only 47.8% of pitches he has seen have been in the zone. That’s still above par but a big drop from the year before. If pitchers continue to throw him fewer strikes, he may have to adjust his approach, but he’s not a free swinger right now. His 48.5% swing rate last year was above average but barely, as the league-wide mean was 47.4%. Since he was getting attacked more, it makes sense that he would swing more. He is up to 49.5% this year, despite seeing fewer pitches in the zone, though he is still getting balls over the plate a lot.
The overall package has been valuable so far. Dingler has appeared in 174 big league games. Thanks so his contributions on both sides of the ball, FanGraphs has credited him with 5.0 wins above replacement. Dating back to the start of last year, Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers are the only backstops with more fWAR. Baseball Reference is a bit more bearish, giving him 3.9 WAR so far. Time will tell if Dingler can hold his gains on the strikeout side of things, but the defense gives him a strong floor and he can clearly put a charge in the ball when he does connect.
Dingler’s breakout is a great development for the Tigers. They are about to lose Rogers to free agency in a few months. If Dingler were a strikeout-prone backup, as expected, Detroit would have been looking for a new catcher in the coming offseason. Instead, they should be able to just roll with Dingler.
They may have to replace Rogers, but that could also be done in house. Eduardo Valencia is already on the 40-man roster and has some helium thanks to a .319/.405/.622 showing in Triple-A last year. His numbers aren’t as strong so far in 2026, currently sporting a .182/.308/.299 line, but with an unfortunate .222 BABIP. There are questions about whether he can stick behind the plate, but the Tigers are still trying. He’s been in the catcher position for 101 innings this year, compared to 53 1/3 at first base. FanGraphs currently considers him the No. 8 prospect in the system.
Dingler is controlled through 2030, so there are also long-term questions to be answered. A couple of Detroit’s top prospects are catchers. Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño are consensus top five guys in the system. Briceño is generally considered a top-100 prospect. Liranzo is already on the 40-man roster but hasn’t yet reached the Triple-A level. He spent most of 2025 at Double-A and struck out at a 31.7% rate. He was slowed by an oblique strain this spring and is only now getting ramped up. Briceño also reached Double-A last year and hit better but has more questions about his ability to stick at catcher. He recently underwent wrist surgery and is likely to miss a few months of this year. Neither of these two are knocking on the door yet but could be at some point.
Even if Briceño is ultimately pushed to first base and designated hitter, the Tigers have Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter under club control through 2028. It’s possible the Tigers will get to a point where they feel someone from that group can be traded.
Even if they don’t build up enough of a surplus to trade someone, Dingler’s development is great for the long-term spine nonetheless. Kevin McGonigle is now signed through 2034 and could be the everyday shortstop for much of that span. Max Clark is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is currently playing in Triple-A. He should be up at some point this season and could be the center fielder in Detroit through 2032.
Along with that long-term core, the Tigers have financial flexibility. Thanks to an aversion to long-term free agent contracts in recent years, their books are fairly clean. The Javier Báez deal is done after 2027. Framber Valdez is signed through 2028 but can opt out of the final year. All their other players making eight-figure salaries are slated for free agency after the current season. Pretty soon, the McGonigle and Colt Keith extensions will be the only guaranteed deals on the books, and those aren’t especially onerous.
The Tigers will probably need more pitching. Valdez can opt out after 2027. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and Casey Mize are free agents after the current season. That clean payroll outlook will give the front office space to sign guys, and as mentioned, they could also find themselves with a position player logjam that leads to a trade.
Detroit could also explore a Dingler extension if they were so inclined. He would probably be amenable to one. Catchers don’t age especially well due to the rigors of the position, which means they rarely receive big free agent deals — at least relative to other position players. J.T. Realmuto got to $115.5MM back in 2021, and he’s still the only free agent backstop to crack nine figures. That’s a big number, but dozens of infielders and outfielders have beaten that handily.
Dingler was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn’t reach the majors until his age-25 season and didn’t break out until he was 26. His window of club control already goes through his age-31 season, meaning he would hit the open market ahead of his age-32 campaign. If the Tigers wanted to lock him up and add another year or two, it seems fair to assume he would be interested.
Extensions for catchers this early in their careers are rare. Most of the notable recent deals for catchers came when they pushed into their arbitration years. Will Smith signed his $131.5MM deal with the Dodgers when he had over four years of service time. Alejandro Kirk was also in that bucket when the Blue Jays gave him $58MM. Raleigh and Sean Murphy had between three and four years of service when they got $99.4MM and $73MM, respectively.
The one recent deal that aligns with Dingler’s current status is the eight-year $50MM deal signed by the Nationals and Keibert Ruiz. Apart from the fact that both catchers have between one and two years of service, it’s not a great comp. Ruiz hadn’t had as much success then as Dingler has now. The deal was mostly a bet on Ruiz’s prospect pedigree, which has not panned out so far. Ruiz has mostly struggled and the deal looks like an albatross. It’s safe to presume he’d top that deal by a comfortable margin.
Contract talk aside, Dingler is making the Tigers stronger now and can continue to do so for years to come. Detroit will face some challenges with none of their starters signed long-term, but the Tigers have a strong foundation on the position player side to utilize, with Dingler rapidly emerging as a key piece of that core.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Max Meyer’s Approach Is Working
Marlins right-hander Max Meyer held the Cardinals to two earned runs across 5 1/3 innings on Monday. One of those tallies came around on a Calvin Faucher wild pitch, tying the game and ruining Meyer’s chance at a win, but it was another solid outing for the young starter. Meyer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five appearances. He’s flashed the best swing-and-miss stuff of his career.
The 27-year-old Meyer has been a slider-first pitcher as a big leaguer. It remains his most-used pitch in 2026, but he’s also ramped up his sweeper usage. Meyer is relying on his breaking balls more than half the time (52.3%). The arsenal tweak has led to throwing his four-seamer at a career-low 19.8% rate. It’s a worthwhile adjustment given the pitch’s performance. Meyer’s heater had a -7 Run Value in 2024, back when he was throwing it nearly as often as his slider. He cut the usage to 22.2% last season, but it still posted a -6 Run Value.
The strikeouts finally came against St. Louis. Meyer punched out eight Cardinals, with the sweeper doing most of the damage (five Ks). He came into the outing with an excellent 13.3% swinging-strike rate, but a middling 22.7% strikeout rate. Considering his most-used pitch has a whiff rate above 50%, a better-than-league-average strikeout rate should be expected. Meyer now ranks ninth among qualified starters with a 14.4% swinging-strike rate. Only two pitchers were above 15% in 2025 (Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease).
The increased reliance on his breaking balls has pushed Meyer’s strikeout rate to a career-best 25.2%. He has a sub-4.00 ERA supported by a 3.77 xFIP and a 3.78 SIERA. Walks have been the main drawback. Meyer has issued free passes at a 9.9% clip, more than 2% above his career mark heading into the season. He walked two Cardinals on Monday, giving him multiple BBs in all but one outing. He also hit two Cardinals and uncorked a wild pitch.
Meyer hasn’t just made gains in the strikeout department. He’s also taken a step forward in terms of contact quality. The righty has a career-low 38.6% hard-hit rate. That number has never been below 44% in any of his three previous big-league seasons. Meyer has permitted an 8.6% barrel rate, which is still above league average but represents a major improvement on his 11.2% career mark.
Miami selected Meyer with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. He was among the organization’s top prospects as recently as 2024. Injuries have kept him from consistently contributing with the big-league club. Meyer suffered an elbow sprain just two starts into his MLB tenure in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2023. Meyer returned to the big leagues for 11 starts in 2024. A shoulder injury ended his season prematurely in September. Meyer broke camp with the team last season, but a hip injury cost him the final three months of the campaign.
A healthy and effective Meyer would be a big boost to a Marlins rotation that has more young firepower on the way. Top prospect Thomas White has a silly 45.0% strikeout rate through three Triple-A starts. Robby Snelling has been just as good, with a sub-2.00 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 19 innings at Jacksonville. It’s easy to forget Eury Perez is still only 23 years old. Miami has the makings of an imposing rotation, regardless of whether they trade ace Sandy Alcantara.
Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
The Angels May Have Found An Ace
Angels right-hander José Soriano has had a really tough journey but it seems he has arrived. He has largely stayed healthy for a few years and his results keep getting better. The timing of his breakout puts the Halos in an interesting position.
Soriano has always had good stuff. Even as a teenager, he was hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and showing good secondary stuff while pitching in Rookie ball. Still, there were questions about whether or not he could utilize that arsenal. From 2016 to 2018, he tossed 155 2/3 innings between Rookie Ball and Low-A. He did have a 2.89 earned run average but his 19.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate didn’t suggest dominance.
He missed a few more bats in 2019 but also with more walks. Then the injury odyssey began. He required Tommy John surgery in February of 2020. The pandemic canceled the minor leagues that year but Soriano was going to be rehabbing regardless.
The Pirates tried betting on his arm, selecting him with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft in November of 2020. Naturally, the hope was that he would return from his surgery and get right back on track. He began a rehab assignment in May of 2021 but that lasted only two appearances before his elbow discomfort returned. He required yet another Tommy John surgery in June. At the end of the 2021 campaign, he was returned to the Angels.
He sat out most of the 2022 season but did make seven appearances in the minors late in the year. The Angels were encouraged enough that they didn’t want to risk another Rule 5 selection, so they added him to their 40-man roster in November of that year.
The Halos used Soriano as a reliever in 2023, an understandable decision for a guy who had effectively missed the previous three years. He tossed 23 1/3 innings in the minors and another 42 in the majors, getting him to 65 1/3 for the year overall. The major league results were good, as Soriano posted a 3.64 ERA. His 12.4% walk rate was high but perhaps some rust was understandable after so much missed time. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 51% clip.
Going into 2024, the Angels could have kept him in the bullpen but decided to give starting another try. A few years later, that looks like an inspired decision. He stayed healthy in 2024 for the most part. Soriano had a brief stint on the injured list in the summer due to an abdominal infection and also landed on the IL late in the year due to some arm fatigue. However, he logged 113 innings over 22 appearances with a 3.42 ERA. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate weren’t astounding but he got grounders at a huge 59.7% pace.
Soriano’s 2025 season was even better. His only IL stint was right at the end of the season. He was struck by a comebacker and was put on the shelf on September 18th with a contusion. He made 31 starts on the year and tossed 169 frames. His 4.26 ERA wasn’t as nice as the year before but his rate stats were largely the same. He had a 21% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and a huge 65.3% ground ball rate.
Soriano’s velocity has been in the upper 90s throughout his big league career but he has thrown his sinker a lot, leading to the grounder-heavy profile. He was atop the leaderboard in that category by a decent margin, with Andre Pallante a distant second at 59.1% last year.
Here in 2026, Soriano has changed up his pitch mix and it has seemingly propelled him to a new level. He threw his sinker 49.1% of the time in 2025 but that’s down to 30.5% so far this year. That’s led to way more four-seamers. Soriano threw that pitch just 8.6% of the time last year but is up to 23.4% in 2026. To smaller degrees, he has also thrown more splitters, sliders and curveballs.
This is only four starts and 27 innings but Soriano has only allowed one earned run, giving him a tiny ERA of 0.33. Part of that is a .143 batting average on balls in play and 100% strand rate, but it’s not entirely luck. Soriano is still getting grounders at a strong 60.7% clip but with a strikeout rate that has soared to 32%. His 2.33 FIP and 2.73 SIERA suggest he would be showing huge improvement even with more neutral favor from the baseball gods.
It’s obviously tremendous for the Angels. They need several things to break right in order to compete this year, since they haven’t been good in a decade and actually cut the payroll coming into this year. That creates a need for some internal guys to step up and be nice surprises. They’re getting a tremendous bounceback from Mike Trout. Former prospect Oswald Peraza is out to a great start. Reid Detmers moving from the bullpen to the rotation is going well so far.
Time will tell if that’s enough to make the Angels legitimate contenders. They are currently 10-10. Hanging around .500 is enough to be in a playoff race these days, with the expanded postseason field. In some recent years, they have had strong starts that faded over time, as their lack of depth generally gets more exposed as a long season proceeds.
If the Angels aren’t strong contenders when July rolls around, Soriano will be an interesting theoretical trade candidate. His Rule 5 odyssey was harmless for the Angels in a sense, in that they got him back. However, he did get a year of big league service time while spending that season on the injured list. That means that despite only having pitched parts of three seasons with the Angels, he came into 2026 with his service clock at three years and 121 days. He is therefore slated for free agency after 2028.
That doesn’t mean the Angels would have to move him this summer but there would be an argument for it. A dominant pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control could get a haul. Given Soriano’s injury history, there would be sense in selling high, before another injury tanks his value.
This is an approach the Marlins have taken in recent years. They traded two-plus seasons of Trevor Rogers to the Orioles, two years of Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies, three years of Edward Cabrera to the Cubs and three years of Ryan Weathers to the Yankees. Those guys all had notable injury issues in Miami but were cashed in while the Marlins felt they were able to get good value. Those trades netted the Fish Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Owen Caissie and a bunch of prospects who are still in the minors. Their farm is now generally ranked in the top third of the league, and it’s possible they are forming a young nucleus that will have them well set up for the coming years. Along similar lines, MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz were traded for big prospect packages in the most recent offseason, by the Nationals and Rays respectively. Gore had two years of club control remaining. Baz, who has since signed an extension with his new club in Baltimore, had three.
This is a path the Angels have typically avoided. Broadly speaking, they appear to be higher on their own chances of contention than outsiders. They have avoided rebuilding and haven’t made many major moves with a long-term focus. They often use their best draft picks on older college players and then fast-track them to the majors to try to help as quickly as possible. They had many chances to trade Shohei Ohtani for a huge package of prospects but held onto him and couldn’t get to the playoffs with him. They sent out notable prospects at the 2023 deadline to get Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and others but immediately floundered and put those guys on waivers a few weeks later.
As a result, there’s not a lot of optimism about the future. Each of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic consider the Angels to have one of the four worst farm systems in the league.
If the Angels aren’t in contention this summer, there would be some sense in selling high on Soriano, Detmers, Peraza, Zach Neto, Jo Adell and others, in order to lay out a long-term path. History suggests that, if they are close this summer, they will try to ride the wave into the postseason. For the sake of their fans, it would be great if that worked out, though it has backfired on them in the past.
As mentioned earlier, Soriano’s step forward is unequivocally a good development for the Angels. The question is whether they will be able to take advantage of it. Making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 would be one way to do that. Setting themselves up for the future by building up a barren farm system would be another. The club hasn’t been able to take either of those roads in recent history. Hopefully this time is different, one way or another.
Photos courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images