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Five Non-Tendered Hitters To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, with Kyle Schwarber, Cody Bellinger, and Brandon Woodruff all having been non-tendered at one point or another in their careers only to this year appear on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

While players of that caliber who reach free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of others find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line. That could be as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2026 season in parentheses.

JJ Bleday (28)

Bleday has quite the pedigree behind him, as he was drafted fourth overall by the Marlins back in 2019. A consensus top-50 prospect in the game prior to his MLB debut in 2022, Bleday struggled for the Marlins and A’s across his first two seasons in the majors before enjoying what looked to be a breakout 2024 campaign. That year, he slashed .243/.327/.437 (120 wRC+), cut his strikeout rate to just 19.5% while maintaining a solid 10.4% walk rate, and showed enough pop in his bat to hit 20 homers and a whopping 43 doubles. He was a below average but not disastrous defender in center field, and that in combination with his strong offensive production allowed him to put together a 3.2 fWAR season.

Unfortunately, Bleday’s star fell back to Earth this year with a tough season where his strikeout rate ticked back up to 26.5% while his power dissipated, leaving with a .212/.294/.404 slash line and a wRC+ of just 90. Things got bleak enough that the A’s actually optioned Bleday to the minors multiple times this season. Perhaps a change of scenery can help Bleday recapture the form he flashed in 2024, and it’s not hard to imagine an outfield-needy team like the Royals or Guardians scooping him up. One sign of optimism regarding Bleday is his performance over the season’s final two months, as he slashed .252/.306/.495 (115 wRC+) with six homers and seven doubles in 111 plate appearances after being recalled to the majors on August 2nd.

Nathaniel Lowe (30)

By far the most established hitter on this list, Lowe has a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger award, and a World Series ring on his mantle for his work with the Rangers from 2021-24. Over that four-year stretch, he slashed a strong .274/.359/.432 with 78 home runs and a 124 wRC+. That’s the performance of a quality regular and left him good for around three WAR per season at first base. Lowe was shipped from Texas to D.C. last offseason, however, and his time with the Nationals left much to be desired.

He hit just .216/.292/.373 across 119 games before he was cut loose from the organization, and while his time with the Red Sox saw him rebound to a .280/.370/.420 slash line closer to what he’s posted in the past, that 34-game stint in Boston only brought his season-long wRC+ back up to 91. While Lowe is hardly likely to get the sort of attention pieces like Pete Alonso or even Luis Arraez will garner this winter, he’d still be an upgrade to a club in need of help at first base like the Padres, Diamondbacks, or Twins.

Christopher Morel (27)

The youngest player on this list by more than a year, Morel arguably has the highest upside of any player on this list but significant flaws that could hold him back from getting a starting job somewhere. The youngster’s big league career started with a bang in 2022, and over his first two seasons with the Cubs Morel slashed .241/.311/.471 with 42 homers in 220 games and a wRC+ of 115. While he struck out at a massive 31.6% clip and was a below-average fielder everywhere he played on the diamond, his impressive power and ability to take walks were enough to make him a well above average hitter.

The past two years have been brutal for the slugger, however, as his production has largely dissipated. Morel’s first half with the Cubs in 2024 was unusual, as his numbers dipped (91 wRC+) despite most of his peripherals trending in the right direction, including a strikeout rate that dropped to 24.5% while his walk rate climbed to 11.1% with 18 home runs. While the usual above-average production wasn’t quite there, the Rays were interested enough to make him a centerpiece of the return for Isaac Paredes at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Morel’s production completely collapsed during his time with the Rays as he hit just .208/.277/.355 (79 wRC+) in 495 plate appearances over the past two years. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a team try and unlock the upside Morel flashed with the Cubs early in his career given his youth and three years of remaining team control, his lack of defensive ability could make him a tough fit for many teams.

Mike Tauchman (35)

Tauchman is the oldest player on the list, and returns after also being listed in last year’s edition of this post. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Tauchman stayed in Chicago by way of a deal with the White Sox and generally made good on his contract with the South Siders, hitting .263/.356/.400 (115 wRC+) across 385 plate appearances. Tauchman may not still be the capable center fielder defender he was earlier in his career, but a teams would be hard pressed to find a player who can more reliably provide on-base ability.

That’s especially true at his expected price tag, which could draw in suitors with tight budgets this winter. Among the 229 players to record at least 1000 plate appearances since the start of the 2023 season, Tauchman’s .359 OBP ranks 21st, sandwiched between Rafael Devers and Kyle Schwarber. His production naturally falls well short of those star players thanks to a lack of power, as he’s not hit even ten homers in a season since 2019. Even so, he’d be a valuable addition to a team like the Royals, Astros, or Rays in either a bench or platoon role.

Ramon Urias (32)

Urias stands out among this group as being the most valuable defender of the bunch. Bleday and Tauchman are both restricted to the outfield and profile poorly in center, while Lowe is a first base-only defender. Morel has experience at valuable positions like center field and third base, but has graded out terribly at them by defensive metrics and profiles best as a DH. Urias, by contrast, is a Gold Glove winner at third base who has substantial experience at both second base and shortstop as well. His +5 Outs Above Average around the infield this year ranked in the 88th percentile among all fielders.

Typically, Urias pairs that strong glove with a decent bat that makes him a solid second-division regular or high-quality part-time player. In parts of six seasons in the majors, Urias is a career .257/.321/.403 (104 wRC+) hitter who had consistently been at or above league average until this season. This year, however, Urias hit just .241/.292/.384 (87 wRC+). That performance is in part dragged down by a rough stint in Houston after being dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline, but even his mark with Baltimore was below league-average. Questionable as Urias’s numbers were this year, his overall track record and ability to provide solid infield defense should make him an attractive addition for a team, particularly given a thin infield market with few everyday options. The Yankees, Brewers, Mariners, and Tigers are among the many teams Urias could make at least some sense for.

Poll: Should The White Sox Trade A Young Catcher?

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While they improved on their historically bad 2024 season this past year, the 2025 White Sox were still among the league’s bottom-feeders with little end in sight to the rebuild that GM Chris Getz is undertaking. The problem for Chicago is that they’re running out of notable pieces to dangle in trades if they hope to accelerate that rebuild. Andrew Benintendi has the capacity to be a decent corner bat, but he’s overpaid and could be difficult to move without eating almost all of his salary. Luis Robert Jr. has long been on the trade block, but the White Sox have never been able to extract the value they’re looking for.

That dearth of quality trade pieces could lead the Sox to look for more unorthodox trade candidates on their roster. For all of the team’s faults, Chicago does have one area of legitimate depth on its roster: young catching talent. Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel both turned in solid rookie seasons after entering the 2025 season as consensus top-100 prospects in the sport, and both players are controlled through the end of the 2031 season. Six full seasons of team control on a player who has already proved capable of hitting big league pitching from the toughest defensive position on the diamond is arguably one of the most attractive tradable assets in the entire game.

There’s also the current market conditions to consider. The free agent market is headlined by J.T. Realmuto but he’s expected to return to the Phillies. Even if he doesn’t, he’s about to turn 35 and some clubs would certainly prefer to find a younger franchise catcher like those currently on the White Sox. Apart from Realmuto, guys like Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are the top guys available. Ryan Jeffers might be on the trade block but it’s not entirely confirmed that the Twins are going to continue the selloff they began at the deadline.

That could make it easy to dream on what sort of elite return the White Sox could get if they were willing to trade either Teel or Quero, both of whom they’ve received interest on. For a team with a need in the starting rotation, multiple holes in the lineup, and plenty of room to improve in the bullpen, a trade return with a number of players could help patch holes and quicken the team’s return to contention in an AL Central division that appeared a bit more vulnerable than expected by the end of the year. Teel or Quero would also not necessarily need to be replaced if traded given the presence of Korey Lee on the 40-man roster, though Lee’s track record in the majors is mixed at best.

An offer that included a controllable starter and help for the lineup could be hard to turn down, but Getz has indicated that he isn’t especially inclined to deal either Teel or Quero at this point. That’s understandable, given that the team has no reason to rush into a trade. Keeping both Teel and Quero in the fold would allow them to better evaluate which of the two is better suited to be a franchise cornerstone behind the plate and, if both players excel, wouldn’t substantially decrease their value on the market. Any loss in team control could be made up for or perhaps even exceeded by the value created by the youngster proving themselves more solidly at the big league level.

What’s more, waiting to trade could mean that the players acquired would be under control longer when the White Sox are earnestly trying to contend again. Acquiring a player with three years of team control in 2026 would likely only mean one or two years in the organization while its competitive, but acquiring a player with the same amount of control remaining a year or two from now could mean having that player’s services for a much larger portion of the team’s competitive window. Waiting would also allow the White Sox to better evaluate the rest of the talent in their system and more accurately identify which needs should be prioritized.

Of course, there’s risks in waiting as well. Injury or underperformance could diminish either player’s value. Given the inconsistencies that even high-end young catchers often face early in their time as big leaguers, the possibility of such a decline cannot be ignored. Perhaps future offseasons will have more catching talent available in free agency and/or trades.

Even if Teel and Quero both remain productive and command strong markets a year or two from now, there are drawbacks to waiting. For one, the clocks on the team’s existing young players are already ticking. Any time spent waiting out the market is time that acquired players and prospects won’t be able to spend alongside young up-and-comers like Shane Smith, Colson Montgomery, and whichever catcher does remain in Chicago long-term. Another concern would be that those players and prospects themselves may not yet be fully established at the big league level, and any additional development time necessary might be better done while the White Sox are still rebuilding rather than when they’re already trying to compete.

How do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should handle their catching surplus? Should the team be open to moving one of their top catching talents, or should they hold onto both players and continue evaluating them in 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

2025 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.

Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Designated Hitters

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
^ Traded for one another since the list was published

Poll: The Royals’ Second Base Decision

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Just under a year ago, the Royals and Reds made one of the first significant trades of the 2024-25 offseason when Kansas City acquired Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. The trade made plenty of sense at the time, as the Reds were in need of some reliability in their rotation while the Royals were desperate for offensive upgrades in the lineup. Singer fulfilled his role with the Reds for the most part, pitching to a solid 4.03 ERA in 32 starts. Things haven’t been quite so rosy on the Royals’ side of the equation, as Wiemer did not appear in an MLB game for the organization and India fell well short of expectations.

In 136 games this past year, the 28-year-old India split time between second base, third base, and left field while hitting .233/.323/.346 (89 wRC+). He was essentially a replacement level player, worth 0.4 WAR according Baseball Reference and -0.3 according to Fangraphs. That might sound surprising considering that India was within spitting distance of league average offensively and collected 567 plate appearances, but his defense was atrocious. His -14 Outs Above Average this year was in the first percentile among all qualified fielders, and he drew negative grades at every position he played. His -6 Defensive Runs Saved weren’t quite as ugly but still well below par.

Did India struggle enough that his first year in Kansas City will also be his last? He’s due to go through the arbitration process one final time in 2026, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $7.4MM salary next year. That’s a hefty chunk of change to spend on a replacement level player, especially for a Royals club that doesn’t have much money to spend this winter without first making room in the budget. While Michael Massey’s 57 wRC+ in 77 games was even more disastrous than India’s 2025 campaign, Massey is projected for a salary of just $2MM next year and is controlled through the 2028 season.

It’s undeniable that India had the better numbers of the two and looking at his advanced metrics creates an argument that he could’ve easily been an average or better hitter with a little luck. His 18.7% strikeout rate was actually the lowest of his career, and while a 9.5% walk rate was below his career norms it was still above league average. The big problems for India were that his BABIP dropped twenty points below his career norms while he managed to slug just nine home runs after being consistently good for 15 to 20 homer power during his time with the Reds.

The good news is that India’s expected numbers were stronger than his actual production, so there’s at least some reason to believe he could bounce back a bit in his age-29 season. Some of that reduction in power figures to be due to the difference between Great American Ballpark and Kauffman Stadium, however, as the Reds play at one of the friendliest stadiums in the majors for homers while the Royals undeniably have a pitcher’s park. Meanwhile, Massey’s season offers little in the way of statistical signs that better days on the way, but it’s still worth noting he was a quality player as recently as last year and his 2025 season was marred by multiple injuries, including an ankle sprain and a broken wrist. Perhaps all Massey needs to turn things around for his age-28 season is better health.

If the Royals decided to stick with both players, they’d been committing nearly $10MM to what would essentially be a second base platoon that was below replacement level in 2025. That’s a big gamble given the club’s limited resources, but there aren’t really any safe options at the club’s disposal. Non-tendering both players would leave the team with a hole and a free agent class somewhat thin on mid-tier infield talent (Willi Castro, Miguel Rojas) isn’t likely to provide a substantial upgrade, leaving them to pursue possible trade candidates like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman. Non-tendering India would free up the majority of that money while still keeping Massey in house as a potential upside option, but it’s unclear if someone who would be better than India would be available at his price tag anyway. Non-tendering Massey would save a modest amount of money but, given his years of control, would only make sense if the team doesn’t believe he’ll be able to rebound. The non-tender deadline is Friday, giving the Royals just a few more days to make a decision.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals should address second base this winter? Should they go with India, go with Massey, keep both, or send both packing in search of a new answer? Have your say in the poll below:

The Padres Need To Make A Decision On Luis Campusano

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Is Luis Campusano a part of the Padres’ future? President of baseball operations A.J. Preller says he is. “He’s going to be in our mix next year, for sure,” Preller said last month, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I’m hoping his experiences this year are going to help him overall as a player.”

Those words don’t align with the club’s actions, as they haven’t shown much faith in him. Campusano was a top 100 prospect a few years ago. He got cups of coffee from 2020 to 2022, never topping 16 games played in any of those seasons. He was called up late in 2020 and didn’t use an option that year, but he burned two of his three options in the following seasons.

In 2023, he was up with the big league club all year but spent a lot of time on the injured list. He was only healthy enough to play in 49 games but put up a huge .319/.356/.491 line and 133 wRC+ in that sample. His defensive grades weren’t great but that offense was certainly enticing. His .331 batting average on balls in play was on the high side but he also had a small 12.1% strikeout rate, meaning he put the ball in play a lot.

The following season was a disappointment, however. He got into 91 games, his biggest sample of big league work to date. His batted ball luck flipped the other way, as his BABIP dropped to .240. That wasn’t just luck as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate all dropped compared to the prior season. He finished the year with a .227/.281/.361 line and 83 wRC+. That kind of offense would have been passable for a glove-first backstop but Campusano was not that. He had a fielding run value of minus-13 and was also credited with minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved, making him one of the worst defensive catchers in the majors that year.

That performance understandably led to a reduction in playing time but he stayed on the roster for a while as Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz handled the catching duties. The Padres optioned Campusano to the minors on September 11th, which was seemingly not a coincidence. A player doesn’t burn an option year unless he spends at least 20 days on optional assignment. When the Friars sent Campusano down last year, there were 19 days left on the schedule.

That left Campusano still with one option remaining going into 2025 and they seemed determined to use it. They re-signed Díaz and also signed Martín Maldonado to be the catchers at the big league level. Campusano was optioned to the minors to start the year.

Seemingly, the plan was for Campusano to be honing his craft with Triple-A El Paso but the Padres also made some curious decisions in that context. He was recalled in early May as the Padres had some injuries, not to any of their catchers, but he was optioned back down three days later. He was recalled again in late May and was up with the club for three weeks but only got into six games with 14 plate appearances before getting optioned back down in the middle of June. He was recalled again for a couple of days in July when Gavin Sheets went on the paternity list, getting optioned back down a couple of days later.

Ahead of the deadline, the Padres acquired Freddy Fermin from the Royals. Maldonado was designated for assignment, leaving the Friars with Fermin and Díaz for the stretch run. They re-signed Maldonado to a minor league deal at the end of August. At the end of September, Díaz seemed to be banged up with an oblique injury and he was excluded from the club’s Wild Card roster. Campusano was called up but the club also selected Maldonado back to the roster, giving them three backstops for their series against the Cubs. Fermin got all the playing time behind the plate in that series.

All of this happened while Campusano crushed Triple-A pitching in 2025. He was aided by a .370 BABIP but his 15.2% walk rate and 17.3% strikeout rate were both great figures. He hit 25 home runs in 475 plate appearances. Even in the context of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, his .336/.441/.595 line translated to a 148 wRC+.

Despite those monstrous numbers, the Padres mostly kept him in El Paso. When they did call him up, he hardly played. They didn’t put him behind the plate in the big leagues at any point this year. They kept rolling with Díaz, Fermin and Maldonado despite none of those three guys hitting. Maldonado, in fact, has been one of the worst hitters in the majors throughout much of his career.

Both Díaz and Maldonado reached free agency at the end of the 2025 season, with Maldonado announcing his retirement shortly thereafter. That leaves Fermin and Campusano as the two catchers on the 40-man roster. Ethan Salas is one of the club’s top prospects but he is only 19 years old and has barely played above High-A. He may be the future but a promotion in 2026 would be ambitious.

Campusano is now 27 years old and out of options, meaning he can’t be easily sent down to El Paso any longer. He actually qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player, so the Friars paid him $1MM in 2025. Since he hardly played in the majors this year, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make the same salary in 2026. Friday is the non-tender deadline, giving the Padres a few more days to decide whether or not to tender him a contract again.

The Padres clearly didn’t trust Campusano to be a big league catcher in 2025. They didn’t put him back there at any point and opted for light-hitting veterans instead. They presumably were still hoping to make him a long-term catcher, as they played him there in Triple-A, along with some time at first base. However, they also interrupted his Triple-A routine with sporadic call-ups that featured little playing time. If they were committed to having him maximize his glovework in 2025, then those recalls stand out as odd choices.

If Campusano does survive the winter and comes into camp with the Padres in 2026, is he the backup catcher? If he’s going to be more in the first base/DH mix, they probably would need to add a veteran backstop, which is less than ideal roster construction. Also, even veterans without much upside cost a few million. They had to give Díaz a $3.5MM guarantee last offseason, for instance. That’s not much in baseball terms but it’s notable for a club with ongoing payroll concerns.

There’s an argument for trading Campusano. A rebuilding club without a clear solution behind the plate, such as the Nationals or Twins, could take him on. One of those clubs could let Campusano have some run at the catcher position to see what happens. However, they’re not likely to give up much for a such a flier.

The Padres could tender Campusano a contract and then try to run him through waivers. Since he has at least three years of service time, he has the right to reject outright assignments in favor of electing free agency. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to walk away from his remaining salary commitments in order to exercise that right. In the scenario where he has been tendered a contract and is slated to make about $1MM in 2026, he would presumably accept, allowing the Padres to keep him as non-roster depth. However, given his track record and three remaining years of club control, it’s no guarantee he would clear.

Put it all together and the Padres should seemingly pick a lane. If one takes Preller at his word, they already have. With a tight budget and question marks in the rotation, perhaps they will stick with Campusano and find a role for him. But they just finished a season during which they didn’t trust him to catch, despite needing clear upgrades there. Even when he was called up, he didn’t get a lot of at-bats. That doesn’t bode well for him serving as a bat-first bench piece, especially with teams usually preferring to have a bit of defensive versatility from their reserves.

If he gets squeezed off the roster, he’ll be destined for the trade block, the waiver wire or perhaps he’ll just be non-tendered later this week. If he does end up departing San Diego, he’ll be an interesting change-of-scenery candidate. Perhaps there will be some clarity on his status in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Will Anyone Accept The Qualifying Offer?

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Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for players to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer. Thirteen free agents were tagged with the $22.025MM offer. It’s a formality for most of them, who’ll easily decline and command a much larger multi-year contract. Each offseason features a handful of borderline decisions, however, and we’ve seen at least one player accept in six of the past seven years. In that span, only in 2023 — when an abnormally low amount of seven players received the QO — did everyone decline.

For the purposes of this poll, we’ll exclude seven players: Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Edwin Díaz, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez. There’s no scenario in which any of them accept the qualifying offer. Most of the remaining six will decline as well, but there’s at least a small chance for any of them to accept. Players and their representatives have had the past two weeks to gauge early demand on the open market, and it’s possible someone from the group has found sufficiently lukewarm interest to consider locking in the strong one-year deal and trying again next offseason.

Zac Gallen and Michael King are each somewhat buy-low rotation options. Gallen is coming off a 4.83 earned run average across 33 starts. His strikeout rate has regressed in a few consecutive seasons, and he gave up the fourth-most home runs (31) of any pitcher in MLB. He once looked like a lock for a $100-150MM+ contract. That’s probably no longer on the table, but Gallen should have enough of a track record to decline the QO and at least command a multi-year deal with an opt-out if he wants to retest free agency.

King has been a much better pitcher than Gallen over the past two seasons. He missed most of his walk year battling a nerve issue in his shoulder. He finished the year healthy but didn’t pitch well in September. The Padres didn’t trust him much going into the playoffs, though they’re obviously confident enough in his health to make the QO. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last week that the Padres expect King to reject the offer and will probably not meet his asking price on the open market. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal for Gallen and King alike.

Brandon Woodruff has some parallels to King. He’s a high-end starter whose main question is durability. Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain after missing all of ’24 recovering from shoulder surgery. He was fantastic over 12 starts in between, though, and he’s expected to be healthy going into 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. There’s less long-term earning power if he accepts a one-year offer and retests free agency at 34. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $66MM deal.

Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres were the two mid-level hitters who received the offer. Grisham is coming off a 34-homer season and is the top all-around center fielder on the market. He’d hit below the Mendoza line in three straight seasons coming into 2025. Entering the year, the notion of him receiving a qualifying offer would’ve been laughable. Things can change quickly. We predicted he’d decline and command a four-year, $66MM deal.

Torres was the most surprising QO recipient to those of us at MLBTR. He’s also the only one we projected to accept on our Top 50 free agent list. (We would’ve predicted a three-year, $40MM contract had he hit the market without draft compensation attached.) He was a deserved All-Star behind an excellent first half but struggled down the stretch and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery.

Finally, that leaves Shota Imanaga. The left-hander only hit free agency because the Cubs declined to trigger a three-year, $57.75MM option and he passed on the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. The Cubs weren’t willing to make the three-year commitment but are evidently content to have him back for one season because they followed up by making the QO. Perhaps they assumed he’s a lock to decline after passing on the $30MM guarantee, though the QO represents an approximate $7MM raise over what he would’ve made in 2026 had he not opted out. Imanaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became extremely homer-prone down the stretch and into the playoffs. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $45MM contract.

How does the MLBTR readership expect tomorrow to play out? Will anyone lock in for one year with their 2025 club or will they all remain on the market?

 

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Harrison Bader?

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Among the center fielders available in free agency, Harrison Bader stands as the best option in terms of defense. In 2025, he tied for 7th-best among qualified outfielders with 13 Defensive Runs Saved. Indeed, Bader has been worth a staggering 67 DRS along with 77 Outs Above Average dating back to his debut 2017 season.

In 2025, Bader paired his typically excellent defense with a career-best offensive performance. In 501 plate appearances across 146 games between the Twins and Phillies, he batted .277/.347/.449 with a 122 wRC+ while setting a career high with 17 homers and upping his hard-hit rate to 40.3%. However, there are questions as to whether Bader’s performance is sustainable, given that he batted .359 on balls in play, which was far above the league average of .291.

Offensive question marks aside, Bader figures to earn a multi-year contract in this turn through free agency. We at MLBTR project him for a two-year, $26MM deal. Which team will take the plunge? Here’s a look at some of the options:

Phillies

A reunion with the Phillies would make plenty of sense. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suarez are all free agents, and though the club would love to bring Schwarber back, there might be some available payroll if the other two end up leaving. In general, the Phillies’ outfield defense has not been a strong suit in recent years. In 2025, Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler were roughly average in the field, while Nick Castellanos was worth -11 DRS in right field and may not be on the team in 2026. Johan Rojas was worth 4 DRS in 418 2/3 outfield innings but also hit for just a 58 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. Justin Crawford rates as the team’s No. 3 prospect according to MLB.com and could factor in, though a reunion with Bader would add to the defense while giving Crawford time to adjust to the majors.

Angels

The Angels used Mike Trout primarily as a DH this year in order to keep him healthy. That left Jo Adell as the starting center fielder, and he was worth -13 DRS in 724 innings there. Bryce Teodosio was much better with 7 DRS in 406 innings, but like Rojas for the Phillies, Teodosio was an offensive black hole with a 51 wRC+ in 150 PA. Overall, the Angels’ outfield defense was valued at -27 DRS, which ranked second-worst among big-league clubs ahead of only the Rockies. Signing Bader would help a great deal in that department, and it’s not as if the $26MM figure would break the bank for owner Arte Moreno, anyway.

Giants

The Giants have Jung Hoo Lee signed through 2029 (though he has an opt-out after 2027). While he was slightly above average offensively with a 107 wRC+ in 150 games this year, he was last among qualified center fielders with -18 DRS. Statcast regards him as having 11th-percentile range but 91st-percentile arm strength, so it’s possible he’d be a better fit in right field than center. Overall, the Giants’ outfield defense was not much better than the Angels’, as they combined for -21 DRS during the season. Mike Yastrzemski had been their best defensive outfielder, but he was traded to the Royals at the deadline. Since San Francisco already has expensive contracts on the books for Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Lee himself, signing Bader could be a low-cost option for strong defense and good-enough offense.

Orioles

Cedric Mullins was well below average defensively in 2025 and was traded to the Mets at the deadline. Colton Cowser and Dylan Carlson were serviceable in center following that trade, but they were hardly difference-makers. Prospect Dylan Beavers debuted in 2025 but only played the corners, and their next-closest outfield prospect, Enrique Bradfield Jr., is seen as an exceptional defender but an underdeveloped bat. Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias has signaled that the club will be aggressive in pursuing upgrades, and RosterResource gives them $68MM in payroll space before they match their 2025 spending. Bader would dramatically improve the defense while still leaving room for pitching upgrades.

Where do MLBTR readers think Bader will land this offseason? Cast your vote in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta?

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Seemingly every season, one of the Brewers’ top players is involved in the rumor mill. Whether it’s Corbin Burnes or Devin Williams, the Brewers’ consistent ability to compete combined with a shoestring budget leave them with an assortment of quality players who will naturally pop up in trade rumors as they near the end of their windows of team control with the club. This year, the next star up to be discussed is right-hander Freddy Peralta.

Peralta, 29, may not be on the same level of star power as someone like Burnes but he’s still an exciting pitcher in his own right. Since joining Milwaukee’s rotation full time in 2021, Peralta has been among the game’s most reliable starters with a 3.30 ERA and 3.65 FIP across 738 1/3 innings of work. He’s struck out an impressive 29.6% of his opponents in that time while walking 9.0%, and he actually enjoyed a career year this season as he posted a 2.70 ERA in 176 2/3 frames and finished fifth in NL Cy Young award voting.

It goes without saying that Peralta is the sort of pitcher that literally any rotation in baseball could benefit from adding, even if he isn’t a “true ace” on the level of Burnes or someone like Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. The quality of Peralta’s arm is already enough to make him an attractive trade candidate by himself, and with teams like the Red Sox and Mets known to be in the market for pitching help this winter, there’s plenty of enticing young talent the Brewers could try to land in exchange for the right-hander’s services.

The fact that he’ll make just $8MM in 2026 should only serve to increase his market, with teams like the Padres facing financial constraints and clubs that typically put together lower overall budgets like the Orioles and Rays not necessarily being forced out of the bidding by financial considerations. The Giants, Braves, and Blue Jays are among a number of clubs known to be on the hunt for starting pitching help this winter as well, so it’s easy to see a robust market forming if Milwaukee decides to dangle Peralta.

All of that makes it very easy to see why the rumor mill has suggested a Peralta trade could be on the horizon this winter. Between the Burnes (Joey Ortiz) and Williams (Caleb Durbin) trades, the entire left side of the infield that took Milwaukee to the NLCS this year as acquired by shipping a talented pitcher on an expiring contract to the AL East during the offseason. The argument can very easily be made for the team to try to repeat history, locking down a controllable piece or two who could fill a hole somewhere on the roster while leaning on the team’s ever-expanding group of young arms to make up for the gap left by Peralta’s departure. Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Tobias Myers, and Robert Gasser could all be in the mix to start games for the Brew Crew next year, to say nothing of players like Aaron Ashby and DL Hall who currently pitch out of the bullpen.

With all that being said, the Brewers’ front office has thrown some cold water on the trade rumors for the time being. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold recently indicated that he expects Peralta to remain a Brewer in 2026. While it would be a bit of a departure from their usual model to keep Peralta, it wouldn’t be totally unprecedented. The club kept Willy Adames in the fold until he walked in free agency last winter and simply issued him a qualifying offer to recoup draft capital when he signed in San Francisco. They could certainly look to take a similar path with Peralta, particularly given the fact that they no longer have another proven high-end arm to fall back the way they did when they traded Burnes.

Additionally, Peralta’s $8MM salary wouldn’t open up new possibilities financially the way a trade of someone making more money like Burnes did, as $8MM is often the sort of money second-division hitters and bullpen pieces make in today’s free agent market. There’s also nothing stopping Milwaukee from reversing course at the deadline if the team doesn’t meet expectations in the first half. Though after a year where they posted the best record in baseball, that outcome seems fairly unlikely.

Arguably, this all means that the decision on whether or not to trade Peralta should come entirely down to the sort of return the Brewers can get for him. If multiple big-league ready and potentially impactful pieces are available, as was the case when they landed Ortiz and Hall from the Orioles in exchange for Burnes, then perhaps that’s worth weakening the front of the rotation. If the right-hander isn’t valued that highly by the market, however, it could be the case that Milwaukee is better off going the same route they did with Adames and keeping their star player in the fold for his walk year.

How do MLBTR readers view Peralta’s trade candidacy? Should Milwaukee trade him this winter to keep their perennial contention machine well-stocked? Or should they hold onto him and try to build on one of the best seasons in franchise history with him in the fold? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Munetaka Murakami?

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A big bat joined the free agent market last week when the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted Munetaka Murakami for MLB clubs. The 25-year-old bashed 246 home runs in eight NPB seasons, including a single-season record 56 in 2022. Murakami is behind only Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette among hitters in our Top 50 Free Agents list.

Murakami isn’t without flaws, as contact and defense are question marks. The slugger has posted strikeout rates above 28% in each of the past three seasons. Murakami would be strikeout-prone if he did that in the big leagues, but in the typically lower-strikeout NPB, it’s a bit alarming. Third base has been Murakami’s home in recent years, but he might not stick at the position long-term. Scouts grade him as a middling defender who might be better suited for first base or DH.

Even with some red flags, there’s an expectation that Murakami is going to garner offers well into the nine figures. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM pact. So who will take the plunge? Here’s a look at some of the options:

Dodgers

Any time a notable free agent is discussed, the free-spending Dodgers will be in the conversation. That’s especially true when the player in question is coming over from Japan, as Los Angeles already boasts Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki. The fit, however, is less than ideal. The Dodgers have Ohtani plugged into the DH spot on a daily basis. Freddie Freeman will hold down first base through 2027. The Dodgers picked up Max Muncy’s club option and will have him at third base again next year, barring a trade. Murakami did make a start in the outfield this past season, so maybe that would be an avenue for the Dodgers to make it work, but it’d be surprising to see him signed and plugged into the outfield on a full-time basis.

Mets

We know Steve Cohen has no problem opening up the checkbook. The Mets are a fairly straightforward fit if they choose not to re-sign Pete Alonso, who opted out last week. The team has Mark Vientos and Brett Baty penciled in at the corners right now, though neither has run away with past opportunities. Ronny Mauricio will also factor into that mix. The Mets don’t have a firm option at DH either, so there’s room to add a hitter with Murakami’s profile. President of baseball operations David Stearns was spotted scouting Murakami in person this year (though several other high-profile executives did the same, so he’s hardly unique in that regard).

Yankees

The Yankees seem more likely to add on the pitching side, but they can never be ruled out in these types of free agent scenarios. Like the Dodgers, the fit for New York isn’t seamless. Ben Rice put together a breakout 2025 campaign and should be a fixture at first base, though he also made some starts at catcher last season. Ryan McMahon was acquired midseason to sure up the third base spot. Giancarlo Stanton is planted at DH. George Lombard Jr. could factor into the infield calculus soon. As with the Dodgers, the Yankees could try to make room for Murakami with a trade (e.g. McMahon, Rice), but this isn’t a clean fit as the roster is currently constructed.

Red Sox

Boston is a decent fit, especially after Alex Bregman opted out. Nathaniel Lowe is likely to be non-tendered. Masataka Yoshida, frequently manning the DH spot, has been a subject of trade speculation for the past year. Triston Casas is returning from a significant knee injury. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t exactly hand Casas the job when he gets back. “I don’t think it makes a ton of sense on October 6 to say someone is or isn’t our first baseman. We’ll see how things play out,” Breslow told reporters shortly after the season ended. A small move or two could free up space for Murakami at DH or a corner infield spot.

Cubs

The Cubs got a strong season from first baseman Michael Busch and have Matt Shaw holding down third base, though DH reps could be available depending on the plan for Moises Ballesteros. And it’s not like Shaw staked his claim to the hot corner permanently, with a .669 OPS in his rookie campaign. The Cubs are known to be in the market for rotation and bullpen help this winter, but they’ve won high-profile bidding on Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga in recent offseasons.

Blue Jays

The Jays are typically at least in the mix for every prominent free agent in a given offseason these days. They haven’t reeled in many of the highest-profile names they’ve pursued in recent offseasons, but they’re coming off a run to Game 7 of the World Series. That gives them some extra financial resources and also makes a compelling selling point to free agents who want to be sure they’re joining a contender. Toronto has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. installed at first base. George Springer will likely get the bulk of the DH reps in 2026 but is a free agent next offseason. Murakami could split time between third base, first base and DH in ’26, with Addison Barger playing right field on days he’s at the hot corner and Guerrero getting a DH breather on days when Murakami is at first base.

Padres

The Padres regularly find themselves in the bidding for star players — both established MLB names and high-profile talents making the jump from overseas. They’ve got Gavin Sheets likely to hold down first base or designated hitter but lack a clear option otherwise. The Padres have been scaling back payroll in recent years, which makes this a tougher fit, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could always find a creative means of opening some financial wiggle room on the trade market.

Angels

The Angels have no real answer at third base, where Anthony Rendon is finally entering the final season of his contract. Yoan Moncada and Luis Rengifo are free agents. First baseman Nolan Schanuel has held his own but hasn’t been an impact hitter. The DH spot is clogged up thanks to the glut of corner outfielders on the roster (Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler), but the Halos could feasibly deal one of Ward or Adell. This would be the biggest swing they’ve taken in free agency since signing Rendon to his ill-fated deal, but there’s a fit and Trout is only real long-term commitment left on the books. Only Trout and Yusei Kikuchi are signed beyond 2026 (and only Trout is signed beyond ’27).

The field

Given Murakami’s rare blend of youth, power and overseas track record, we could see a dark horse candidate emerge for his services. In terms of production, the Nationals, Cubs, Reds and Pirates ranked bottom four in OPS at third base, while the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins and Giants brought up the rear at first base. San Francisco made a splash in the international market recently, landing Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM deal ahead of the 2024 season. It’s just hard to see where Murakami would play, assuming Bryce Eldridge has a significant role next season. It’s also possible a smaller-market team could step up and pursues Murakami as a potential face of the franchise.

Where do MLBTR readers think Murakami will land this offseason? Cast your vote in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Mets Trade Kodai Senga?

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After missing the playoffs this year, the Mets are poised to aggressively shake up their pitching staff this winter. Their starters posted a 4.13 ERA this year, good for just 18th in baseball, and that’s in part due to the cautious approach they took to building their staff last year.

After spending a massive amount to lure Juan Soto to Queens, president of baseball operations David Stearns seemed reluctant to engage the top free agent starters too aggressively and wound up focusing on mid-level and bounceback arms instead. Clay Holmes converted from the bullpen to the rotation, New York took a flier on Frankie Montas after a weak 2024, and the big addition was a reunion with Sean Manaea. The strategy did not work out. Holmes did fine, turning in a solid mid-rotation performance, but Montas barely pitched and turned in atrocious results when he did, while Manaea was limited to just 15 appearances and was moved to the bullpen late in the year amid his own struggles.

On paper, the Mets head into the offseason with a full rotation for 2026: Holmes, Manaea, and right-hander Kodai Senga are all under contract, and controllable arms like David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat give the team more than enough arms to fill out a rotation. McLean is widely viewed as a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm, but relying on him to be an ace after just eight MLB starts would be risky. Tong and Sproat are even less established with lower ceilings, and each of Holmes, Manaea, and Peterson fit better in the middle to back of a team’s rotation.

Aside from McLean, Senga has the highest ceiling of all the club’s starting pitching options. In 52 starts with the Mets over the past three years, he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA and a 3.82 FIP with a 26.8% strikeout rate. Those are generally quite impressive numbers, and on paper it might seem like the Mets can count on McLean and Senga as a potential front-of-the-rotation duo for next year.

That only appears to be the case on paper, however. After a strong rookie season in the majors, Senga missed all but one start in 2024 due to shoulder and calf issues. He returned to the mound in 2025 and looked like his old self early on, with a 1.47 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 73 2/3 innings of work through mid-June. He missed a month due to a hamstring strain that brought that stretch to an end, however, and when he returned he looked like a shell of himself. He pitched to a 5.90 ERA with a 5.76 FIP across his final nine appearances of the year, struck out just 20.6% of his opponents, and walked 12.7%. He pitched into the sixth inning just once in that time, and failed to finish the fifth inning in six of those starts.

Things got bad enough for Senga that he was optioned to Triple-A in early September, a move that he consented to. Even at the club’s Syracuse affiliate, he struggled to a 4.66 ERA across two starts before his season came to a close in mid-September. Last month, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo indicated that the Mets don’t know what to expect from Senga in 2026. Even if they had made the playoffs, Senga would’ve only been activated to the playoff roster if the club suffered multiple injuries to the rotation. It’s harder to know if a pitcher who will be 33 in January will bounce back than it would be for a younger arm, as well. Stearns’s postseason words on Senga weren’t exactly a vote of confidence, either:

“Kodai has had two very inconsistent, challenging years in a row,” Stearns said, as relayed by DiComo. “We know it’s in there. We know there’s potential. We’re going to do everything we can to help get it out of him. But look, can we put him in ink as making 30 starts next year? I think that would be foolish.”

So, with more starting pitchers than they have spots for and a desire to bring in more surefire options, would the Mets entertain a trade for Senga? It’s possible that a change of scenery could make sense for both sides. Senga could prefer to get a fresh start in 2026 with a club that can offer him a more reliable rotation spot than the Mets might be able to, and New York might see a trade as a way to bolster their pipeline of young talent during an offseason where they might look to get aggressive on the trade market to improve the rotation.

The Mets haven’t been a team concerned with posting sky-high payrolls under Steve Cohen, but if they do have a desire to cut payroll to a less extreme level this winter, then parting with a $15MM hit in luxury tax dollars could be attractive as well. On the other hand, Senga’s potential would be hard to part with. He’s clearly shown himself capable of being a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm as recently as the first half of this season. If the right-hander manages to get back on track elsewhere, it would be a tough pill for the Mets to swallow.

While Senga’s deep struggles and uncertain future might make the Mets willing to listen to offers on Senga, his potential might lead them to keep the asking price for his services quite high. Perhaps there’s a deal to be worked out with a team willing to bet on Senga and surrender a controllable position player at an area of need for the Mets, like first base or center field. The Red Sox stand out as one intriguing fit given Triston Casas’s own uncertain future and high upside, not to mention the rumblings that have connected Boston to Mets slugger Pete Alonso in free agency.

How do MLBTR readers think the Mets will approach Senga this offseason? Will they look to keep him in the fold, even as he approaches his mid-30s with no guarantees he’ll bounce back? Or could they look to move him this winter to bolster the roster in other areas and avoid that risk? Have your say in the poll below:

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