Poll: Which Team Has Been Most Impacted By Injuries This Year?
Every year, teams that are widely expected to succeed at the outset of the season stumble due to injury woes. Teams that look strong on paper can often perform much less impressively if even one or two key players are removed from the mix, and even the very best teams can look vulnerable with a long enough string of tough-luck injuries. 2026 has been no exception to this so far, with several teams facing substantially tougher roads in the months ahead thanks to an early injury or three putting them on the back foot. Which team has it worst when it comes to the injury bug? Here’s a few of the leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Atlanta Braves
One look at Atlanta’s list of injured players makes it easy to see why they’re in this conversation. The Braves’ injured starting pitchers would be a respectable starting rotation when taken together: Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Joey Wentz are all currently on the shelf. While Wentz is more of a back-end starter or swing man, the other four would all be in the conversation to start playoff games for the Braves alongside future Hall of Famer Chris Sale if they were healthy. In addition to the starting pitching woes, the Braves are without two key members of their lineup: catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Despite this deep group of talented players on the shelf, it can be argued the Braves haven’t been too impacted by those issues: they’re actually leading the NL East at the moment, and scorching hot starts from Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubon have helped fans to forget about the losses of Murphy and Kim.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles could be easy to overlook on a list like this given their considerable depth all over the diamond, but that depth has been tested a great deal already this year. Zach Eflin is out for the year as he faces UCL surgery, but unlike other teams on this list the rotation is the least of Baltimore’s woes. A lineup that is currently without Jordan Westburg (elbow sprain), Jackson Holliday (hamate surgery), Adley Rutschman (ankle inflammation), Tyler O’Neill (concussion), Ryan Mountcastle (foot fracture) and Heston Kjerstad (hamstring strain) has been rather resilient in the face of those many losses thanks to the team’s deep positional corps. The bullpen has not been so fortunate, as last summer’s loss of Felix Bautista has been compounded by injuries to Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge to completely upend the Orioles’ late-inning mix outside of Ryan Helsley.
Chicago Cubs
While some teams collapse under the weight of several injuries piling up, the Cubs have struggled to stomach just one major loss. Star right-hander Cade Horton looked like an up-and-coming ace with the club last year, but just two starts into what would’ve been his first season in the majors, the right-hander was sidelined for UCL surgery. That’ll leave the Cubs without their best pitcher for the entire year, all while Justin Steele is still rehabbing from his own UCL surgery last April. The loss of Horton isn’t the only injury the Cubs have faced this year, either. Seiya Suzuki missed the start of the season after getting hurt during the WBC, though he’s since returned to the lineup. Matthew Boyd is currently sidelined by an arm injury of his own, and the team’s top two bullpen additions from the offseason (Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey) have both recently gone on the injured list as well. Losing Horton might be the biggest individual blow any team has faced so far this year, though other teams surely have it worse than the Cubs when it comes to volume.
Houston Astros
The Astros have had a brutal run of injuries so far this year. Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier are both sidelined with shoulder strains. Tatsuya Imai (arm fatigue) joined them on the shelf and Cody Bolton (mid-back tightness) is also banged up. Things aren’t much better outside of the rotation. An outfield mix that was already looking thin before the season began lost its best starter in center fielder Jake Meyers to an oblique strain. The infield lost Jeremy Peña to a hamstring strain. The bullpen has also struggled badly without star closer Josh Hader, who has been sidelined by biceps tendinitis without much clarity on his timeline for a return to action. Other, smaller loses include outfielder Zach Dezenzo, lefty Bennett Sousa, and right-hander Nate Pearson. That’s on top of the continued absences of players like Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco due to surgeries underwent last season.
Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning AL champs have struggled badly with injuries all over the roster this year. The most obvious are those in the rotation, where all of Cody Ponce, Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage are currently shelved with only Yesavage likely to return any time soon. That’s left the Jays to rely on Patrick Corbin and an injured Max Scherzer in the early going. While the lineup hasn’t been quite as damaged as the rotation, there’s still been significant losses. Alejandro Kirk is in the midst of six-week absence due to thumb surgery. Anthony Santander was sidelined before the year even began by shoulder surgery. George Springer (fractured toe) and Addison Barger (sprained ankle) are facing injuries of their own. While the bullpen has remained intact, the number of injuries in the rotation and lineup have left the Jays looking very different than they would when healthy.
Other Options
Those five teams aren’t the only ones facing injury woes, of course. The Mets have an argument given that Juan Soto is probably the most impactful talent on the injured list all throughout the league at the moment, though he’ll be back in a few weeks and they lack other significant injuries. The Yankees are currently without players like Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony Volpe, but those injuries were known during the offseason and the club was able to construct their roster around them. The Dodgers’ losses of Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Blake Snell are certainly significant, but it’s hard to say they’re being impacted too much when they have the best record in baseball. The Brewers have a strong argument for this list in the event that Christian Yelich joins Quinn Priester and Jackson Chourio on the shelf, though that isn’t yet certain. The Reds have stayed healthy in the lineup and bullpen, but the losses of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are obviously a big blow to their rotation.
Which team do MLBTR readers think has been most impacted by injuries this year? Have your say in the poll below:
Which team has been most impacted by injuries in 2026?
2026-27 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: April Edition
At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.
Naturally, the player’s health and performance leading up to the decision will impact which way the player leans. Which players have that decision looming after the 2026 campaign? MLBTR takes a look, in alphabetical order. Player ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.
- José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM
The Blue Jays and Berríos agreed to a seven-year, $131MM extension back in November of 2021. The Jays had just acquired Berríos from the Twins a few months earlier, when he had a year and a half of club control remaining. A few months later, with that control window down to one year, they locked him up to keep him around. He could opt out of the final two seasons of the deal, giving him a chance to hit the open market after his age-31 season, when another long-term deal would still be theoretically possible.
Back then, Berríos was a front-of-rotation workhorse who could be banked on for 3-5 WAR per year. He hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts lately, making him feel more like a veteran innings-eater type. From 2022 to 2025, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.
Even that has been undercut by some injury concerns in recent months. He finished 2025 on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and has started this year on the IL as well, again due to elbow inflammation. The issue doesn’t appear to be major and he could be back with the Jays in the near future. He would have to come back healthy and pitch really well in the next few months for this opt-out to even be a consideration.
- Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout
Bichette’s recent trip to the open market was an interesting case. He wasn’t the first notable free agent to settle for a short-term deal, but we do know that he could have taken a more traditional long-term pact. The Phillies reportedly offered him a seven-year deal worth around $200MM. That was pretty close to the eight-year, $208MM deal that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason.
Instead, Bichette went another way. The Mets offered a much higher average annual value on a short-term deal with opt-outs after each season. Bichette can collect $42MM from the Mets for his age-28 season. If he decides to return to free agency, he can take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door, going into his age-29 season.
He would be walking away from a big salary but another $200MM deal might be out there for him if he has another typical Bichette season. Perhaps he would look to lock that in but we have already seen him opt for the bigger salary once. Maybe he would do so again. On the other hand, it’s theoretically possible he can garner better long-term offers this coming offseason. Last time, he had question marks due to his knee injury and uncertain future position. This time, it’s possible he’ll be healthy and have some proof of concept as a third baseman.
Bichette will need to turn things around to even make this a discussion, as he’s off to a .228/.262/.263 start as a Met, but that’s in a small sample size of 61 plate appearances. He has lots of time to heat up.
- Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)
Burnes was a free agent after the 2024 season and few expected him to land in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal, with $64MM deferred. The deal gave Burnes the chance to opt out after two seasons, which would be his age-30 and age-31 seasons.
The deal has not worked out as hoped so far. Burnes did give the club 11 good starts last year, posting a 2.66 ERA, but then required Tommy John surgery in June. He will be on the shelf for at least half of the 2026 season, if not more.
It is theoretically possible for Burnes to beat the remaining money on his deal. Blake Snell was going into his age-32 season in 2025 when the Dodgers gave him a five-year deal worth $182MM. A couple of years prior, Jacob deGrom did better at an even older age. He was going into his age-35 season when he got a five-year, $185MM deal from the Rangers.
For Burnes to make this a conversation, he’ll probably need to come back and shove for at least a few weeks. One or two starts in September won’t do it. It’s also worth considering that Burnes seemingly turned down larger offers from other clubs because he and his family live in Scottsdale. Even if he thinks there’s a chance of slightly more money out there, he might be happy where he is.
- Kyle Freeland (34) – $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026
Freeland and the Rockies signed a five-year, $64.5MM extension back in April of 2022. The deal runs through 2026 but Freeland can unlock a $17MM player option by getting to 170 innings pitched this year. He hasn’t done that in a while, with 2022 being the last time he hit that mark. Even a minor injury that puts Freeland on the IL for a few weeks would quickly take this off the table.
Presumably, the Rockies don’t want him to trigger this. The deal was signed under the previous front office regime. Even at the time, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. Since it has been signed Freeland’s ERA has mostly been hovering around 5.00. That’s not so bad for a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors Field but the Rockies are now rebuilding and don’t seem likely to be in contention next year.
On the other hand, even without a real eye on contention, they have considered it worthwhile to invest in making the rotation more respectable. After losing 119 games last year, the new front office invested almost $20MM to sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano. Each of those guys got $8MM or less. Deals like that are probably preferable to spending twice as much on Freeland but it’s not as though that would be back breaking. Freeland is making $16MM this year, so it would be a modest raise.
- Ryan Helsley (32) – $14MM player option
Helsley became a free agent after last year and a pillow deal seemed likely. He had been so dominant at his best but was coming off a poor platform. From 2022 to 2024, he posted a 1.83 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate. But in 2025, his ERA jumped up to 4.50. It was an even worse 7.20 for the Mets, who had acquired him from the Cardinals at the deadline. He only struck out 23.2% of batters faced after the deal. There was some talk that he may have been tipping his pitches, as his stuff seemed the same.
The Orioles gave him a two-year, $28MM deal, with even $14MM salaries in each season. Ideally, Helsley would return to form. That would give the O’s a lock-down closer without a lengthy commitment, while Helsley could return to free agency and get a bigger payday.
The early results are mixed. Helsley has thrown 4 1/3 innings for the O’s. His 30.4% strikeout rate is a nice uptick but he has also walked 17.4% of batters faced in that small sample. He still has lots of time but the sooner he locks in, the more it will help him in the coming offseason.
- Clay Holmes (34) – $12MM player option
Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever until he hit free agency, when he drew interest as a starter. The Mets gave him a three-year, $38MM deal and stretched him out. That deal contained an opt-out after two years. That would give Holmes a chance to return to free agency with some proof of concept as a starter, while the Mets would hope to at least get a couple of decent seasons from him.
So far, so good. Holmes is striking out fewer batters as a starter but is still getting plenty of ground balls, leading to good results on the whole. He has thrown 178 1/3 innings as a Met with a 3.38 ERA. His 18.2% strikeout rate is well below his work as a reliever, when he was usually above 25%, but Holmes has induced grounders at a 56.4% clip. He has had a bit of luck from a .273 batting average on balls in play and 75% strand rate, but his 4.09 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest he would be a competent back-end starter even with more neutral luck.
A decent starting pitcher can beat $12MM these days, even one in his mid-30s. In the most recent offseason, Nick Martinez got $13MM from the Rays for his age-35 season. Chris Bassitt got $18.5MM from the Orioles for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly got two years and $40MM from the Diamondbacks starting at age-37. Adrian Houser got two years and $22MM from the Giants beginning with his age-33 campaign, even though he had to settle for a minor league deal a year prior.
Holmes hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts as Kelly or Bassitt but he was comparable to Martinez and Houser last year, with far more grounders than anyone in that group. He’s not an ace but there could be a path to something better than what will be left on his deal.
- Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM
Imai is just making his major league debut. Coming from Japan at the end of last season, there seemed to be big divisions in how he was viewed by major league teams. Some saw him as a viable mid-rotation guy but others felt his future would be as a leverage reliever.
Some, including us, thought that a team would bet on the upside. MLBTR predicted Imai to land a six-year deal worth $150MM. It seems no club was willing to go to that length, at least not yet. Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros. Opt-outs after each season give him a chance to return to free agency, ideally with a track record of success as a major league starter. He is still relatively young, turning 28 in May, so he should still be able to secure a long-term deal in the future if the results are there.
It has only been two starts but the numbers have been mixed. Imai has a huge 35.1% strikeout rate but a massive 18.9% walk rate. That lack of control is one of the worries with Imai. He got his walk rate down to 7% in his final NPB season but was above 11% from 2019 to 2023. Beating two years and $36MM would be easy if he’s a 29-year-old mid-rotation starter but he will probably stay if he doesn’t quite cement himself or gets pushed to the bullpen.
- Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout
Not too long ago, King looked to be on his way to a nine-figure deal. He got a rotation chance with the Yankees late in 2023 and made the most of it. The Padres acquired him and put him into their starting group. King responded with an excellent 2024. He kept that going into 2025 until some injury issues popped up. From August 24th of 2023 until May 18th of 2025, King tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs credits him with 6.7 WAR for that span. The only six pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard are Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease.
But King wasn’t able to carry that all the way into free agency. A pinched nerve in his shoulder sent him to the IL for a while. He returned but then quickly went back on the IL with left knee inflammation. He made a few starts in September but wasn’t as dominant as before.
Due to that unimpressive finish, he seemed likely to get a short-term deal with opt-outs, and that indeed came to pass. The Friars brought him back with a three-year deal worth $75MM. It’s a bit backloaded, a team preference since the Padres have been working with some payroll restrictions. King gets a $12MM signing bonus, $4MM annually, but he’ll get all of that even if he opts out. It’s a $5MM salary in the first season and then a $5MM buyout if he walks. Then there’s a $28MM salary in 2027 and $30MM for the final season.
He can easily beat that if he’s back in top form. As mentioned, he was pitching like an ace a year ago and was on a path to something well over $100MM. Even with the injuries, he almost got to nine figures. Through three starts, he has a 3.24 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate aren’t amazing but it’s a very small sample size.
- Yuki Matsui (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM
After years working as a closer in Japan, Matsui came over to North America ahead of the 2024 season. The Padres signed him to a five-year, $28MM deal. That pact allowed him to opt out after three years, as long as he didn’t have a major injury in the first two.
Matsui stayed healthy and has generally given the Padres solid relief work. He made more than 60 appearances and logged more than 60 innings in both 2024 and 2025. On the whole, he has a 3.86 ERA in 126 innings thus far. However, his 11.3% walk rate is high and his 24.6% strikeout rate is only about two ticks above average for a reliever. He hasn’t really been in a leverage role, with just one save and 12 holds. He began the 2026 season on the IL with a groin strain.
Two years and $13.5MM isn’t a massive amount of money in baseball terms but Matsui won’t beat that if he’s a low-leverage reliever. Those types of guys usually get one-year deals worth a few million. He would have another chance to opt out after 2027.
- Emilio Pagán (36) – $10MM player option
Pagán’s profile is well known at this point. He gets a lot of strikeouts but also allows lots of home runs. That leads to big swings in his ERA, depending on how many fly balls are leaving the yard. He had a 4.43 ERA with the Twins in 2022, then dropped that to 2.99 in 2023. The Reds signed him to a two-year deal with an opt-out. His ERA spiked to 4.50 in the first season and he decided to stay. He then had a 2.88 ERA in 2025.
He returned to free agency and the Reds re-signed him to basically the same deal as before. The first was $16MM over two years. The second deal gave him a slight bump to $20MM. Pagán has already allowed two home runs through 7 1/3 innings this year, leading to a 6.14 ERA. This one literally depends on which way the winds will be blowing this summer.
- Wandy Peralta (35) – $4.45MM player option
Peralta got a four-year, $16.5MM deal from the Padres going into 2024, with the final three seasons all being player options. That was a surprise at the time but the Friars like deals like this, seemingly because of their financial situation. The extra years lower the average annual value and therefore the hit to the competitive balance tax. If the player has a good season and opts out, that’s a loss to the roster but the Padres get him off the books.
With Peralta, he has mostly been a ground ball specialist in his career, getting opponents to pound the ball into the dirt at a 53.8% clip. His 19.1% strikeout rate is below average but he’s still been able to have some good seasons. His first two campaigns in San Diego were fine but weren’t enough for him to trigger either of his first two opt-out chances. He had a 3.99 ERA in 2024 and a 3.14 ERA last year. He has a 3.60 ERA in the early going in 2026.
$4.45MM isn’t a ton of money but veteran relievers can sometimes get squeezed. Andrew Chafin keeps having to settle for minor league deals, for instance. Peralta should probably just stick with San Diego for 2027 unless he has a surprisingly dominant season.
- Nick Pivetta (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32MM
The Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year, $55MM deal ahead of the 2025 season. Due to San Diego’s aforementioned payroll crunch, they backloaded the money. Pivetta got a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. He is making $19MM this year, followed by two player options worth $14MM and $18MM. The 2027 option becomes a club option if Pivetta misses 130 days for a major injury.
The first season of the deal was the best of Pivetta’s career. He took the ball 31 times and posted a 2.87 ERA, though that may have been a bit fluky. His strikeout and walk rates held fairly steady compared to prior seasons. He went into 2025 with a 15.5% home run to fly ball rate but only 9.7% of his fly balls went over the fence last year. If his home run rates revert back to previous levels, his ERA would likely jump back to his usual range of the low 4.00s.
Two years and $32MM is beatable as a decent 34-year-old. Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi both got three-year deals worth $75MM in recent years. Eovaldi was actually one year older, going into his age-35 campaign. Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Blue Jays a few years back. Yusei Kikuchi got the same deal from the Angels. As previously mentioned, Kelly got $40MM over two years going into his age-37 season.
- Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option
Severino signed a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics ahead of 2025. The A’s were desperate for pitching. Luring big leaguers there was going to be tough since they were going to be playing in a minor league park from 2025 to 2027. They also needed to spend a bit more to avoid putting their status as a revenue sharing recipient at risk. The Severino deal surpassed expectations and the industry consensus is that the A’s realized they had to overpay someone.
Though Severino accepted that job and has 67 million reasons to feel good about it, he also has a few reasons to feel annoyed and went public with those. It’s possible he’s eager to move on and maybe the opt-out was put into the contract so that he would have the ability to do so.
Last year’s results weren’t amazing, as he posted a 4.54 ERA. The minor league park played as hitter-friendly and may have hurt him, as he had a 6.01 ERA there compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. However, that road ERA was helped by a tiny .249 BABIP. He only struck out 17% of batters faced in away games, so it’s not as though he was dominating. His 4.34 home FIP and 3.87 road FIP were much closer than the ERA splits.
Unless he really dominates in 2026, sticking with the A’s may be best financial decision. In the most recent offseason, decent starters got less than the $22MM Severino would be turning down. Zac Gallen got $22.025MM but with deferrals that knocked the net present value below $19MM. As mentioned, Houser got $22MM on a two-year deal. Steven Matz got $15MM over two. Bassitt got $18.5MM, Martinez got $13MM and Dustin May got $12.5MM via one-year deals. His 2026 results will play a role but his desire to get out of that minor league park may also be a factor.
Photo courtesy of D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images
Poll: Is Sandy Alcantara Back?
2025 was a season to forget for Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner looked to be establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in the entire sport just a few years ago, but that reputation has slipped the past few years due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Tommy John surgery Alcantara underwent in late 2023 wiped out his 2024 season. While he returned in time for the start of 2025, he wasn’t an effective starter for most of the year. Overall, he entered 2026 with a 4.73 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 59 starts since receiving his aforementioned Cy Young. Those numbers are closer to a fifth starter than an ace and questions over what the righty could really offer a team at this point helped keep him in Miami through last year’s trade deadline and this past winter.
Three starts into his 2026 campaign, Alcantara already seems to be changing the narrative. The righty has posted a sterling 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings of work across his trio of outings this season. Those results are obviously excellent, but Alcantara’s trademark ability to pitch deep into games has been on full display as well; he’s averaged more than eight innings per start so far this year. Neither the sub-1.00 ERA nor his 240-inning pace will continue all year, of course, but what can fans expect from the righty this year?
There are some signals that Alcantara’s hot start to the year might be a mirage. The right-hander has limited his opponents to a .159 BABIP that will be impossible to maintain and sits more than a hundred points below his career norm. He’s also enjoyed a very easy schedule for the start of the season, facing off against bottom-feeders like the Rockies and White Sox while catching the Reds at a time where most of their lineup is scuffling badly. Given that level of competition, it would be understandable to exercise caution regarding the righty until he proves effective against some more challenging offenses.
That’s not to say there isn’t reason for optimism, however. The most obvious one is that Alcantara is now a full year removed from his Tommy John rehab, and his last season where he didn’t deal with elbow troubles or the aftermath of that surgery was his Cy Young 2022 campaign. That’s further supported by the fact that Alcantara improved drastically over the course of the 2025 season. After carrying a ghastly 7.22 ERA into last year’s All-Star break, he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.89 FIP the rest of the way, including a 2.62 ERA and 24.9% strikeout rate in the final six weeks of the regular season. When looking at the second half of 2025 in conjunction with the start of the 2026 season, Alcantara looks a whole lot like the ace he once was with a 2.75 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 48.6% ground ball rate, and a 15.5 K-BB% in 108 innings of work across 16 starts.
Zooming back in on his performance so far in 2026, Alcantara’s strikeout and walk rates are better than they’ve been since his Cy Young season and his ground ball rate is trending back up after dropping to just 46.5% last year. The most encouraging sign so far is the complete lack of hard contact Alcantara has allowed. That was the righty’s biggest issue in 2023 and ’25, and while those numbers will take some time to stabilize, things look very encouraging so far in 2026. He’s allowed just one barrel so far this year and his 28.6% hard-hit rate is exceptional thus far. It would be a shock to see those rates stay that low all year, but if he can post a barrel rate in the five to six percent range and a hard-hit rate under 40%, that would leave his profile looking a lot more like it did at his peak than in the years surrounding his surgery, when he combined for a 7.8% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard-hit rate.
How do MLBTR readers think Alcantara’s 2026 season will shake out this year? Will he re-establish himself as one of the league’s top pitchers? If not, will he at least return to being a clearly above-average starter in terms of run prevention for the first time since 2022, or is this hot start merely a flash in the pan? Have your say in the poll below:
What will Sandy Alcantara's 2026 season look like?
Poll: Is Jordan Walker Finally Breaking Out?
It might not seem like it, but it was just a few years ago that Jordan Walker was a consensus top five prospect in all of baseball. Walker entered the 2023 season as a trendy Rookie of the Year pick in the NL and was widely expected to make a big impact for the Cardinals. That, of course, didn’t pan out. Walker turned in a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign where he posted a 116 wRC+ while struggling badly defensively in the outfield. He followed that up with brutal performances in 2024 and ’25, combining for a .211/.270/.324 (68 wRC+) slash line in 574 plate appearances that left him closer to the bubble of the team’s roster than the middle of the lineup.
12 games into the 2026 season, things could not be more different. The Cardinals entered the year with few expectations of competing as they embark on a rebuild that led them to trade Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan over the winter. With those trades (and Lars Nootbaar beginning the year on the injured list), the Cards had plenty of room in the lineup to give Walker another shot, even in spite of his previous deep struggles. That’s paying off in a big way so far, as Walker has started to look like the player he was expected to be as a prospect. In 49 plate appearances to start the year, Walker has slashed .295/.367/.682 with a wRC+ of 191. He’s already hit five home runs this year after hitting that same number in 51 games during the 2024 season and hitting just one more across 111 games last year.
It’s hard to imagine a better start to the season than Walker has had, but it’s still fair to wonder how much of it is real. After all, 49 plate appearances is a minuscule sample. A 43-PA stretch from July 19 to July 29 last year saw Walker slash .342/.419/.500 with far less fanfare surrounding it. The same can be said of a 51-PA stretch from September 1 to September 18 in 2024, where he hit .271/.314/.583. Those short outbursts of productivity serve as cautionary tales for leaning too far into early-season small samples, and it’s certainly all but guaranteed that Walker’s numbers will come back down to Earth on at least some level in due time.
With that being said, however, it’s worth noting that the underlying metrics are a lot more confident in Walker’s performance now than they have been in the past. That aforementioned stretch from July 2025 saw Walker carry a completely unsustainable .481 BABIP. This year, by contrast, Walker has a .320 BABIP to this point that is more or less in line with his career figure of .310. His 10.2% walk rate is better than it’s ever been in his career, and his 23.3% barrel rate to this point borders on absurd. Walker’s expected batting average (.309) and slugging percentage (.712) are both even better than his actual production this year, and his .453 xwOBA largely supports his .457 wOBA.
Those are all very encouraging signs, but there are still some red flags that will need to be reckoned with. Walker’s 28.6% strikeout rate this year remains very high, and shows no signs of coming down any time soon. It’s not impossible to succeed when punching out that frequently, but it’s certainly more difficult. Of the top 30 qualified hitters in the majors last year by wRC+, just four of them had a strikeout rate north of 26%. Those four players were Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, and Rafael Devers. All of them hit at least 35 homers, with Raleigh and Schwarber famously hitting far more than that. Buxton’s 27.3% strikeout rate led the group, and that’s more than a full point below where Walker’s currently sits.
While Walker may be on a 68-homer pace right now, it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to get into the 40-homer territory that would be necessary to make him one of the league’s top hitters by the end of the year. Of course, he doesn’t need to be among the league’s biggest stars to be a productive major leaguer. Wyatt Langford hit just 22 homers last year with a strikeout rate of 26.9%, and still posted a 118 wRC+ thanks to a high walk rate. Even Lawrence Butler‘s 2025 season, where he struck out 28.4% of the time against a 9.4% walk rate with 21 homers and a wRC+ of 96, would be a big win for Walker considering where he was entering 2026. That all feels attainable at the moment, though all it would take is one big slump for Walker’s hot start to look like yet another flash in the pan from the talented but mercurial 24-year-old.
How do MLBTR readers expect Walker’s 2026 campaign to turn out? Will he emerge as the cornerstone piece the Cardinals thought they had when he flew up prospect rankings a few years ago? Will this prove to be a blip in what otherwise winds up being another disappointing year? Or will he finish somewhere in the middle with optimism that he can be a solid regular going forward? Have your say in the poll below:
What will Jordan Walker's 2026 season look like?
Poll: What Should The Cubs Do With Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki?
The Cubs kicked off the 2026 season with a pair of notable extensions. They locked up star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and veteran second baseman Nico Hoerner on contracts that will keep both players in town through the end of the 2032 season. Even after extending Hoerner (who was a pending free agent prior to signing), however, the Cubs are in position to lose a lot of talent this offseason. Sixty percent of the club’s starting rotation (Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon) is slated to hit free agency after the season. This is also catcher Carson Kelly‘s final year under contract.
The most notable players the team stands to lose to free agency, however, are Crow-Armstrong’s partners in the outfield: left fielder Ian Happ and right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Whether a deal will come together with either Happ or Suzuki remains to be seen. As of two months ago, both Happ and Suzuki indicated that they had not spoken to the Cubs about extensions yet. That can change with one phone call, of course, but there’s been no evidence to this point that the sides have engaged in talks so far. On the surface, the argument for extending one or both of the team’s corner outfielders seems fairly obvious: both have been consistently productive for Chicago.
Happ is now in his tenth season as a major league player, and he’s never posted a below average season by measure of wRC+ in that time. Since the departure of the core that won the World Series in 2016, Happ has been the club’s longest-tenured player and a consistent presence on offense. From 2022 onwards, he’s slashed .250/.346/.435 (119 wRC+) overall with remarkable year-to-year consistency. His wRC+ has fallen between 116 and 122 in each of the last four years, and on defense each of those seasons has ended with him being awarded the NL’s Gold Glove for his work in left field. Aside from his on-field value, Happ also holds a meaningful place in Cubs history with a chance to finish the year in the franchise’s top 10 all time for home runs.
Suzuki, on the other hand, joined the Cubs after coming over from Japan ahead of the 2022 season and has only improved across his four years with the club. A career .269/.346/.472 (127 wRC+) hitter in the majors, he’s been arguably the Cubs’ most productive bat during his time with the club. Since arriving in the majors in 2022, Suzuki’s the 11th-best outfielder in the majors by wRC+ (minimum 1500 plate appearances). That puts him just behind Byron Buxton and Julio Rodriguez, sitting just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Corbin Carroll. Those are middle-of-the-order superstars that Suzuki is rubbing elbows with from a statistical perspective, and that sort of impact can be tough to replace.
That’s not to say extending either player is necessarily a slam-dunk decision, as both certainly come with flaws. Both will celebrate their 32nd birthdays in August, putting them near the end of their prime years. Neither is exactly a complete player, either. Suzuki’s offensive impact cannot be denied, but his defensive struggles in the outfield are well-documented and led to him spending most of the 2025 campaign as the club’s DH. He’s also struggled to stay healthy in the majors, having only played 150 games once in his career. He already started 2026 on the injured list due to a knee injury he suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Happ, on the other hand, is a more well-rounded player but the offensive production he offers is a lot easier to come by. Taylor Ward, Teoscar Hernandez, Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Anthony Santander, Randy Arozarena, and Brandon Nimmo are all within three points of Happ’s wRC+ from 2022-25 in one direction or the other. All of those players are quality pieces, but that group is undeniably a step down from the rarefied air Suzuki’s numbers put him in.
One key factor that has not yet been mentioned regarding the Cubs’ decisions on Suzuki and Happ is the availability of quality alternatives. Arozarena is set to reach free agency this year and is comparable to Happ and Suzuki in terms of both age and productivity, but they’re undoubtedly the top three corner outfielders on the market this winter. Players like Trent Grisham and Ramon Laureano lack the lengthy track records offered by Happ and Suzuki, while someone like George Springer comes with even more substantial age-related concerns given that he’ll turn 37 this September. If the Cubs are going to dip into free agency for outfield help this winter, they’ll be hard pressed to find an upgrade over the guys they already have.
In terms of internal options to replace the duo, the Cubs are quite thin. Top outfield prospect Owen Caissie was dealt to Miami over the offseason to land Edward Cabrera. Kevin Alcantara is a well-regarded prospect currently hitting very well at Triple-A, but the 23-year-old has struggled in limited chances in the majors and draws significant value from his defense in center field, a position he won’t play on a team that features Crow-Armstrong. 2025 first-rounder Ethan Conrad is very well-regarded in prospecting circles but still years away from the majors. Matt Shaw was displaced from third base by the addition of Alex Bregman and has gotten some reps in right field while Suzuki is on the shelf, but he was a below-average offensive player last year and had no experience in the outfield before this spring.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should handle the outfield corners going forward? Should they extend one or both of their current veterans, or let them both walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
How should the Cubs approach Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ's futures?
Join The FREE MLBTR Newsletter!
Get the latest news sent directly to your inbox with our FREE newsletter! We’re coming to you weekday mornings with the most important stories from the previous day. It’s the best way to stay up to date on everything happening around the league.
Here’s what you can expect from the newsletter:
- A quick recap of newsworthy content from the past 24 hours
- Links to analysis from our talented team of writers
- Updates about breaking stories or upcoming news on the horizon
If we’re in your inbox, something notable just happened. Don’t miss out! Sign up below…
2026-27 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: April Edition
The 2026 season is underway and last offseason is officially in the books. While free agency hasn’t completely closed — Lucas Giolito continues to wait for an offer he and his camp find acceptable — we’ll take our first look at next winter’s class.
As a reminder, these lists are based on our predictions of a player’s market value. This isn’t strictly looking at the most valuable free agents. Players in their mid-to-late 30s are going to have a difficult time cracking the top 10 because they’re naturally limited to shorter-term deals. Even in what is shaping up as a weak class, everyone in the top five and arguably the top eight have a path to a nine-figure contract.
MLBTR publishes our first free agent power ranking each April. A player’s walk year performance is the biggest factor in what they make, but their play over one week of the ’26 season doesn’t have much of an impact on their initial ranking. At this point, we’re going more off age and career track record — particularly the past couple seasons. There’s a lot of volatility this far out.
That’s especially true for the 2026-27 class. In recent offseasons, it has been fairly easy to identify the top free agent hitter at least a year in advance. Over the past five years, the respective top free agents on our first in-season rankings were Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Corey Seager. Seager signed for $325MM, while the other four all set records for overall guarantee and/or average annual value.
This year also features a clear No. 1 free agent, but it’s a pitcher for the first time in years. Pitchers occupy the top two spots, in fact, and Jesús Luzardo would have made three of the top four if not for his recent extension with Philadelphia. Pitchers are riskier bets than an elite free agent hitter because of the ever-present worry of an injury that could wipe out a season or more.
There simply isn’t an impending free agent position player of Tucker’s or Seager’s caliber, much less an Ohtani or Judge. Nico Hoerner had an argument as the best or second-best free agent position player before signing a six-year extension with the Cubs last week. It’s the weakest hitting class in recent memory.
[Related: Who Will Be The Top Free Agent Hitter?]
The likelihood of a lockout looms over any projection of the 2026-27 offseason. It seems inevitable that MLB and the Players Association will not reach agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement before the expiration of the current CBA on December 1. MLB would immediately implement a lockout, freezing all roster movement and communication between teams and players until a new agreement is reached. The 2021-22 lockout brought the sport to a halt for 99 days.
The anticipated lockout isn’t a factor for this list. It’s too early in the process to predict specific contracts. It also doesn’t seem that last winter’s group of free agents feared the work stoppage. Four players accepted qualifying offers, setting the stage for a return to the open market during the expected lockout offseason. A handful of others took short-term deals at higher annual values with opt-out opportunities this winter. The CBA will be the defining story of next offseason, but it has no bearing on the first ranking of the class.
We’ll refresh these rankings at least twice more during the season as injuries and players’ performances change their market value. There’s frequent turnover in the back half of these lists throughout the season. A lack of top-end talent means that’ll be particularly true this year.
One final note: players whose contracts contain opt-out clauses or mutual options are considered for these rankings. Those whose deals have club options are not. For instance, there’s no scenario in which Ronald Acuña Jr. signs a massive free agent contract next offseason. The Braves are all but certain to exercise their $17MM option for the 2027 season. It’d take some kind of catastrophic injury for Atlanta to buy him out.
Onto the rankings:
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
Skubal enters his walk year on track for the largest pitching contract of all time. He’s probably the best pitcher in the game right now, no lower than second after Paul Skenes. Skubal is the two-time defending Cy Young winner in the American League.
Going back to the start of the 2024 season, he carries a 2.25 earned run average that ranks second among qualified pitchers behind Skenes. He’s third in strikeout rate after Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale, each of whom has thrown fewer innings. Only Logan Webb has logged a heavier workload. Skubal has been even more dominant in October, turning in a 2.04 ERA while striking out 38% of opponents in six career playoff starts.
Skubal has a prototype workhorse build and sits in the 97-98 mph range on his fastball. He dominates hitters from either side of the plate and has no issue working deep into games. The only potential concern is that Skubal has twice undergone elbow surgeries: a 2017 Tommy John procedure while in college and a ’22 flexor repair that cost him a year. Skubal has not missed a start since returning from the latter surgery.
As long as he stays healthy, he should shatter the record for the largest pitching contract ever. Excluding the Ohtani deal, that’s currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who got to $325MM over 12 years. Skubal turns 30 in November, so he’s not signing for 12 years, but he could land a nine- or 10-year pact that beats the $43.33MM record average annual value for a pitcher. We’re probably looking at the sport’s first $400MM arm and the clear prize of the winter.
Skubal and agent Scott Boras have already broken new contractual ground. They were rewarded for a bold arbitration filing, resulting in a record salary ($32MM) and the largest single-year jump (nearly $22MM) via that process. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer unless the Tigers unexpectedly face plant and trade him at the deadline (which makes a player ineligible for the QO). That’s irrelevant for players this good. Teams will happily forfeit a couple draft choices and international bonus pool money to install Skubal atop their rotation for the better part of the next decade.
2. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Mets
Peralta has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the majors for over five years now. From 2021 to 2025, he has thrown 738 1/3 innings, allowing 3.30 earned runs per nine. His 9% walk rate in that time is around league average while his 29.6% strikeout rate is tied for 16th among 208 qualified pitchers. He has a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, changeup, slider and curveball, getting good results will all four.
For that span, he has been credited with 14.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the 20 most valuable pitchers in the league. He hasn’t had a major injury in that time. A lat strain limited him to 18 appearances in 2022, but he has made at least 30 starts in each season since.
After the Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers this offseason, many expected an extension to keep him in Queens. However, it seems there may be a misalignment of priorities. President of baseball operations David Stearns prefers short-term deals, for all players but especially for pitchers. Including his time with the Brewers as well as with the Mets, he has only twice gone beyond three years for a pitcher. In both cases, they were five-year extensions for pitchers early in their careers. One was for Peralta himself, a $15.5MM deal signed before he was established. The other was a $20.5MM deal for Aaron Ashby.
The Mets would presumably offer Peralta a very high average annual value, but it seems he would prefer a more traditional long-term deal. He has publicly said he is hoping to sign a deal of seven or eight years in length. He would have a case for such a pact. His profile lines up fairly nicely with Dylan Cease, who just got a seven-year deal worth $210MM from the Blue Jays, though deferrals knocked the net present value down to the $180-185MM range. Here are the two pitchers from 2023 to 2025:
Peralta: 95 starts, 516 innings, 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, 38.5% ground ball rate, .265 BABIP, 79.8% strand rate, 13% HR/FB, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.63 SIERA
Cease: 98 starts, 534 1/3 innings, 28.8% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, 37.5% ground ball rate, .304 BABIP, 69.3% strand rate, 10.3% HR/FB, 4.18 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.72 SIERA
The strikeout, walk and ground-ball profiles are extremely close. Peralta had a bit better luck in terms of batted balls and sequencing, giving him an edge in the ERA department, but advanced metrics put them much closer together. Front offices these days tend to overlook ERA, as Cease’s deal shows.
Peralta will be one year older than Cease, in baseball terms. Cease signed his deal with the Jays going into his age-30 season. Peralta turns 30 this June, so 2026 will technically be his age-30 campaign. However, the difference is actually just six months. Cease turned 30 in late December, about three months before his first start with the Jays. Peralta will turn 30 about nine months before the start of the ’27 season. Like Cease, he’ll be attached to a qualifying offer but shouldn’t be impacted by draft forfeiture.
3. Bo Bichette, 3B, Mets
Bichette was just one of the top free agents of the past offseason but has a chance to be in that position again. Though he did receive at least one long-term offer — the Phillies reportedly bid around $200MM — he opted to go for a short-term deal with an extremely high average annual values and opt-outs.
With a healthy season, Bichette could return to the open market with fewer questions. He finished last season injured and with an uncertain defensive future. He was never considered an excellent shortstop and then suffered a sprained PCL in his left knee late in the 2025 season. He finished the campaign on the injured list and missed the first few rounds of the Blue Jays’ playoff run. He was activated for the World Series but was clearly not 100% and was limited to second base and designated hitter duty.
Despite the question marks, Bichette still had a robust market thanks to his bat. He doesn’t walk much but is also tough to strike out. He generally has 20-plus homer power, giving him an intriguing contact/power combo. He has a .292/.335/.466 batting line in his career, resulting in a 121 wRC+, indicating he’s been 21% better than league average overall. Before the knee injury in 2025, he hit 18 home runs and slashed .311/.357/.483 for a 134 wRC+.
Bichette’s largest total offer this winter came from the Phillies, who put forth a seven-year framework worth around $200MM. Instead, he signed a three-year deal with the Mets. The $126MM guarantee is well shy of the Philly offer but allows Bichette to bank $42MM this year. If he decides to opt-out, he will collect a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. While turning down $200MM isn’t easy, Bichette can return to free agency with about a quarter of that money already under his mattress.
It’s also theoretically possible he could get an even better long-term offer this coming winter. He will be a year older but still relatively young, as he will turn 29 in March of 2027. The Mets are playing him at third base this year. Moving down the defensive spectrum hurts his earning power, but that was already the expectation for him. Having one year of experience should at least give him some proof of concept at a new position. Ideally, he won’t go into the coming offseason with any health issues. He was a $200MM guy a few months ago and should still be that a few months into the future. He’s ineligible for the qualifying offer after receiving one from Toronto last winter.
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Yankees
There’s a clear tier break between the Nos. 3 and 4 players in the class. Chisholm seems to have the highest ceiling of the non-Bichette group of position players. He’s a lefty-hitting middle infielder with plus bat speed and athleticism. Chisholm was one of seven players to go 30-30 last season, setting a career-high with 31 home runs. His matching stolen base total was the second highest of his career.
The hangup is the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Chisholm has fanned at a higher than average rate in every season of his career. He punched out in 28% of his plate appearances a year ago, batting .242 in the process. A personal-high 10.9% walk rate resulted in a solid .332 on-base percentage, but he has a more pedestrian .315 mark over his career. Chisholm’s career .247/.315/.451 batting line is around eight to nine points better than league average, in the eyes of park-adjusted metrics.
Free agency has generally been unkind to second basemen in recent years. Hoerner’s $141MM extension could be a nice boost for the position, but he may have gotten interest as a shortstop if the Cubs had let him hit free agency. That’s less likely for Chisholm, who is a solid but not elite second baseman and hasn’t played shortstop in five years. He could be an option for teams seeking third base or outfield help, though a downward trend in his sprint speed means he’s probably not returning to the everyday center field work he logged with Miami between 2023-24.
Chisholm will be eligible for qualifying offer. He wouldn’t have much delay in declining it if he repeats last season’s production. He’s one of the younger players in the class, not turning 29 until next February. Matching his 2025 numbers could set him up for a nine-figure contract.
5. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Orioles
The past 12 months have represented a remarkable turnaround for Rogers. Baltimore’s 2024 acquisition of the former All-Star lefty for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby was heavily scrutinized. He was bombed over his first four starts as an Oriole and optioned to Triple-A to end the ’24 season. He began last season on the injured list and was on optional assignment to Triple-A into the middle of June.
From the time of his final recall through the end of the season, Rogers ripped off 17 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He fanned a slightly above-average 24.4% of opponents against a 7.2% walk rate while holding hitters to a .185/.246/.272 line. Within a half-season, Rogers went from a depth piece to Baltimore’s Opening Day starter. He has opened this season with a pair of quality starts, allowing two runs with an 8-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 13 innings.
Rogers’ dominant run prevention hasn’t come with a huge amount of swing-and-miss. He has good but not elite strikeout and whiff rates. His 93 mph average fastball isn’t overpowering on the surface. He gets a lot of weak fly-balls on the heater while using his changeup and sinker as ground-ball offerings. Rogers picked up a sweeper last year to build out the arsenal.
There are obvious red flags to which Rogers’ detractors could point. He’s not going to match last season’s .226 average on balls in play, even if it’s reasonable to expect him to sustain a lower-than-average BABIP based on hitters’ struggles squaring him up. Durability is the other big concern. Rogers has yet to reach even 140 innings in a big league season. He missed time early in his career due to back, lat and biceps issues. A right knee subluxation cost him the first six weeks of the ’25 campaign.
Rogers is among the highest variance players in the class. He could hit the market as a 29-year-old coming off a season and a half of ace-caliber production. Another injury or a slight drop in velocity or whiffs could quickly drop him back into prove-it territory.
There’s a lot of projection in slotting him this high, but it’s also a reflection of how few pitchers in this class are hitting the market in their primes. There are a handful of pitchers below Rogers on this list who have much longer track records, but they’re mostly into their early-mid 30s. Rogers has a chance at a five-plus year deal that most of the older, more established arms do not. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer.
6. Michael King, RHP, Padres
King can return to the market by opting out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $75MM deal. The right-hander had a fairly robust market last winter despite being limited to 15 starts, largely by a nerve issue in his shoulder. However, King was unlikely to command five or six years coming off that platform, so he opted for three years with opt-outs to return to the Padres.
This is almost entirely dependent on health. King performed at a borderline ace level throughout 2024 and the first two months of the ’25 season. He struggled down the stretch after returning from the nerve injury and an August IL stay due to a minor knee issue. After a shaky spring, he worked around four walks across five scoreless frames versus the Tigers in his season debut. His 94 mph average fastball was at typical levels.
King won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer. He turns 31 in May, so a free agent deal would begin with his age-32 season. Five-year deals for starting pitchers at that age aren’t common. A healthy season could get him to four years at a strong enough annual value to reach nine figures. Injuries could take him off the market entirely by leading him to forego the opt-out.
7. Daulton Varsho, CF, Blue Jays
Varsho missed the final month of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. The rehab from that operation, coupled with a separate hamstring strain, limited him to only 71 games in 2025. Despite that considerable time off, he still ranks fifth among all major leaguers, at any position, in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three-plus seasons at 44. The four players above him have all played at least 1000 more innings. Varsho’s 22 Outs Above Average tie him for 23rd in baseball in that same span. The Ultimate Zone Rating metric isn’t as commonly used as it was 15 years ago, but no player in MLB (min. 1000 innings) has been a better defender than Varsho since 2023 by measure of UZR/150.
A former catcher, Varsho took shockingly well to center field and now stands as one of baseball’s premier defensive players. He’s far from a one-trick pony, however, even if his glove is his best asset. The second-generation big leaguer has been a perennial threat for 20-plus home runs, but his power output exploded in 2025. Varsho belted 20 round-trippers in only 271 turns at the plate. He chipped in three more homers in 81 postseason plate appearances. If he’d maintained that regular season pace over the same 562 plate appearances he averaged in the three preceding seasons, Varsho would’ve topped 40 home runs.
That type of power output was a new development, and whether he can sustain anything close to it will go a long way toward determining the extent of his earning potential this coming winter. If Varsho can somehow maintain anything close to last year’s breakout .310 ISO (slugging minus batting average), he could be in line for a nine-figure contract. If his power comes back down to Earth, things are less certain. Varsho is a good player, but he’s strikeout prone and typically has only an average walk rate. That’s led to a career .295 on-base percentage, which many teams will see as a glaring red flag.
There’s a wide range of outcomes here, but Varsho is going to reach free agency as a 30-year-old. He’ll turn 31 in July of year one on his new contract. A plus-plus center field defender with 20-homer pop should, at the very least, command three to four years in free agency. If he can sustain last year’s power output, Varsho can more credibly look for a contract of five years, which might be enough to push him into nine-figure territory. It’d be a big bet to place on someone with such paltry OBP skills, but 40-homer pop and a poor OBP netted Anthony Santander a $92.5MM deal (albeit with heavy deferrals). Varsho should be more appealing if he can stay healthy and deliver a career-best performance in the power department. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer.
8. Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Astros
Imai’s market didn’t materialize the way many expected last offseason. Despite several predictions of a nine-figure contract — MLBTR included — the Japanese righty wound up settling for somewhat of a prove-it deal. He signed a three-year, $54MM guarantee with the Astros which included opt-outs after the first two seasons.
The Astros also paid a $9.975MM posting fee to NPB’s Seibu Lions. In a sense, Houston was willing to spend nearly $28MM for one year of Imai’s services. That’s a decent amount, but scouts had enough trepidations about Imai’s command and the quality of his secondary pitches that teams weren’t willing to make a long-term commitment.
That’d probably change if he pitches at a mid-rotation level as a rookie. Imai is the youngest starter of note in this class, as he won’t turn 28 until May. He has a plus fastball that averaged 95.6 mph in his MLB debut. It was a rocky start overall, as he walked four batters and couldn’t escape the third inning, but one poor outing doesn’t say much about the caliber of pitcher he’ll be moving forward. (Yoshinobu Yamamoto gave up five runs and lasted all of one inning in his own MLB debut.)
Imai probably won’t be in this spot on the next iteration of the free agent rankings. If he’s pitching well, he could jump into the top five based on the youth and velocity. If he struggles, he could drop off the list equally quickly. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer if he opts out of his current contract.
9. Randy Arozarena, LF, Mariners
Arozarena is an above-average everyday left fielder. He has been between 14 and 27 percent better than average at the plate in five straight seasons. He hit a career-high 27 homers while stealing 31 bags last year. Arozarena has gone at least 20-20 in each of the last five years and is a lifetime .250/.344/.433 hitter.
That blend of power and speed comes with some swing and miss. Arozarena has struck out a near-26% clip in his career and punched out in 26.9% of his trips last year. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as a league average left fielder, while he’s generally a little worse than par by measure of Outs Above Average.
Arozarena will hit the market at age 32, likely with a qualifying offer attached. A high-AAV three-year deal seems likelier than four guaranteed seasons. His camp would probably try to beat the $66MM Teoscar Hernández contract if he has his usual year.
10. Seiya Suzuki, RF/DH, Cubs
Much of the Arozarena writeup also applies to Suzuki. The righty-hitting slugger owns a .269/.346/.472 slash over four big league seasons since signing out of NPB. He popped 32 homers with a .245/.326/.478 mark over 651 plate appearances last season.
Suzuki has plus power and takes a lot of walks. It comes with some strikeouts but not enough to prevent him from slotting into the middle of a lineup. Suzuki is probably a slightly better offensive player than Arozarena, but he faces more questions about his position fit and injury history.
The Cubs have used Suzuki frequently as a designated hitter over the past couple seasons. He has the speed and arm strength to play right field, where the public metrics have graded him as a slightly below-average defender. He missed time in 2023 and ’24 with oblique strains and began this year on the shelf with a minor PCL sprain in his right knee suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Suzuki will be eligible for a qualifying offer. Like Arozarena and teammate Ian Happ, he’ll hit free agency as a 32-year-old corner outfielder. They’re all consistently good but not top-tier hitters, and clubs could reasonably order them in any way. They each have a shot at three years and more than $20MM per season. A fourth year for any of the three isn’t a complete stretch but also shouldn’t be considered likely. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only free agent deals of four or more years for outfielders 32 or older in the past decade have been for Starling Marte (four years, $78MM) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80MM) — both of whom played center field in their platform seasons.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Bryan Abreu, David Bednar, Shane Bieber, Kris Bubic, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Trent Grisham, Ian Happ, Shota Imanaga, Brandon Lowe, Casey Mize, Adrian Morejon, Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer, Gleyber Torres, Taylor Ward, Brandon Woodruff
Respective images courtesy of Imagn Images.
Poll: What Can The Astros Expect From Carlos Correa This Year?
It wasn’t too long ago that Carlos Correa was a consensus pick as one of the best shortstops in baseball. He entered the 2023 season as a career 130 wRC+ hitter who appeared to be on something close to a Hall of Fame trajectory. A lot has changed for him since the 2022-23 offseason, however. Now that he’s been reunited with the Astros, he figures to be one of the most important players to the organization as they look to get back into the playoffs. What can they actually expect from the three-time All-Star?
While the first several years of Correa’s career saw him post that aforementioned 130 wRC+ with strong enough defense at shortstop to average around four fWAR per year despite occasional struggles to stay on the field, that’s changed since he signed his second contract in Minnesota. From 2023 to ’25, Correa hit just .266/.338/.428 (113 wRC+). That would still be star level production for an elite defensive shortstop who plays 150-plus games per year, but that’s not who Correa is anymore. He took a step back to the point of being more of an average to above-average shortstop defensively (+1 Outs Above Average at shortstop from 2022 to ’25) and moved to third base upon returning to Houston last summer.
Staying on the field has become increasingly challenging as well. Plantar fasciitis in both feet has cost Correa significant time over the past few years, and he’s taken additional trips to the injured list thanks to oblique issues and a concussion. All that left him to appear in just 365 games over the last three years. If he continues averaging just over 120 games a season as a third baseman and doesn’t see a big uptick in his defensive value, it will be hard for him to maintain star-level production without delivering more consistent offense. The 154 wRC+ he posted during his 86-game 2024 season would be more than enough. The 106 wRC+ he posted in 144 games last year wouldn’t cut it.
It should be noted that with the Twins paying $10MM of Correa’s salary in each of the next three years, Correa doesn’t necessarily need to produce like a star to be a valuable asset. Even a wRC+ in the 115 range, similar to what he’s posted over the last three years, would likely be enough to mostly justify the $62MM the Astros are set to pay him over the next three seasons. Still, an Astros club that is waiting for players like Cam Smith and Brice Matthews to break out while watching veterans like Jose Altuve and Christian Walker start to decline will need everything it can get from Correa as they look to make their way back into the postseason.
The early signs this year are positive. Through seven games, Correa has identical 10.0% strikeout and walk rates with a .296/.367/.444 (133 wRC+) slash line. A sample size that small is mostly meaningless, but if he can produce those sorts of numbers across 400+ plate appearances he’ll be one of Houston’s biggest assets this year. His underlying numbers from recent seasons don’t quite offer that level of optimism, but do indicate that he’s been better than the 2025 season might otherwise indicate.
Correa’s xwOBA over the last three seasons was .339, which is similar to the .338 he posted in that same stat last year. Players who posted a wOBA in that range last year include Wyatt Langford, Gunnar Henderson, and Spencer Torkelson. Looking at fellow third basemen, Manny Machado posted a .341 while Matt Chapman posted a .336. That would be good company for Correa to keep, especially if his defensive metrics at third base tick up from where they were last year (+2 OAA) with additional exposure to the position. There’s reason to believe he can get there; Correa slashed .290/.355/.430 with a wRC+ of 122 and a wOBA of .344 in 51 games after being traded back to Houston.
How do MLBTR readers think Correa will fare in his first full year as an Astro since 2021? Will he post middling numbers like he did last year, return to the form he showed earlier in his career, or fall somewhere in the middle? Have your say in the poll below:
How effective will Carlos Correa be for the Astros in 2026?
-
Correa will play closer to his production after being traded last year. (122 wRC+) 45% (696)
-
Correa will turn in a disappointing season similar to last year. (106 wRC+) 44% (677)
-
Correa will return to form fully and perform at the level he did earlier in his career (130 wRC+ or more) 11% (168)
Total votes: 1,541
Rule 5 Draft Update: April Edition
In last year’s Rule 5 draft, 13 players were selected in the major league phase, giving them a chance to play for a big league club in 2026. Not all of them broke camp and not all of them are healthy, so we’ll check in on the group from time to time.
For those who need a quick refresher on the parameters, the Rule 5 draft is designed to give major league chances to guys who may be blocked in their current organization. Players become eligible to be taken in the draft after a certain amount of time in the minors but can be protected from selection by being added to the 40-man roster. A player selected in the Rule 5 cannot be optioned to the minors, meaning he has to stay in the big leagues or on the injured list for the entire season. After a full season, the selecting team gets the player’s rights permanently, as long as he was active for at least 90 days. If the player is not active for 90 days, due to a significant injury, the Rule 5 parameters carry over into the next season.
If the selecting team no longer wants to roster the player, he needs to either be traded or placed on waivers. Any acquiring team would take on the same Rule 5 restrictions. If he clears waivers, he is offered back to his original organization. That club can take the player back without carrying him on the 40-man roster.
On An Active Roster
Daniel Susac, Giants C (selected from Athletics by Twins, traded to Giants)
Susac made the Opening Day roster but didn’t get his first start until last night, San Francisco’s seventh game of the season. That debut could hardly have gone much better. Susac went three for three and also drew a walk. His family was in attendance and their celebrations quickly became popular online. He also collected the obligatory post-game shower.
The Giants presumably felt pretty good about Susac’s chances of sticking as a backup to Patrick Bailey. They had the 15th pick in the draft but didn’t want to wait that long. They sent minor leaguer Miguel Caraballo to the Twins so that Minnesota could take him at #4 and then flip him to the Giants.
Susac was the 19th overall pick in the 2022 draft but his minor league performance had been more decent than overwhelming. His defense behind the plate was considered passable. In Triple-A last year, he slashed .275/.349/.483, with that production translating to a 94 wRC+ in the Pacific Coast League. He has performed well since joining his new organization. He hit .350/.386/.550 in spring training and, as mentioned, his big league career is off to a good start in a small sample.
Carter Baumler, Rangers RHP (selected from Orioles by Pirates, traded to Rangers)
Like Susac, Baumler was acquired via trade on Rule 5 day. The Rangers had the 14th pick but sent minor league righty Jaiker Garcia to the Pirates in exchange for Pittsburgh selecting Baumler fifth overall and flipping him to Texas. Baumler didn’t have Susac’s draft pedigree, as he was a fifth-round pick in 2020. However, he had a strong season in 2025, split between High-A and Double-A. He tossed 39 2/3 innings, allowing 2.04 earned runs per nine. His 11.4% walk rate was high but he struck out 29.1% of batters faced.
He earned an Opening Day job with a strong spring, throwing 9 1/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts and just two walks. He has thrown 4 2/3 big league innings thus far, with two earned runs allowed. He has five punchouts but has given out six walks and hit one batter. The Rangers don’t have a ton of flexibility in their bullpen at the moment. Robert Garcia and Jacob Latz are the only guys who can be optioned to the minors and Garcia’s not going anywhere. Baumler will presumably need some better control if he is to hang onto his spot.
Ryan Watson, Red Sox RHP (selected from Giants by Athletics, traded to Red Sox)
Once again, we have a team giving up a prospect to effectively move up in the draft. Boston had the 22nd pick but sent infielder Justin Riemer to the Athletics for Watson, after the A’s grabbed him in the #8 spot.
Watson was not really a top prospect. He was a 39th-round pick way back in 2016, before the draft was shortened to 20 rounds. He spent the 2025 season pitching in Triple-A as a 27-year-old and posted a 4.26 ERA. The Sox looked beyond that ERA number, which was posted in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and focused more on his 28.1% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate.
He didn’t have an overwhelming spring performance, tossing 11 1/3 innings, allowing seven earned runs with seven strikeouts. He broke camp with the Sox regardless and has made two big league appearances thus far. He has allowed two earned runs in 3 2/3 innings with three strikeouts but five walks.
Roddery Muñoz, Astros RHP (selected from Reds)
This was a bit of an unusual Rule 5 pick, as Muñoz already had already pitched in the majors in previous seasons. In fact, he had exhausted his three option years from 2023 to 2025. The Reds claimed him off waivers from the Cardinals in November, non-tendered him and then re-signed him to a minor league deal, but then the Astros plucked him away in the Rule 5.
Muñoz had a strong spring, with 16 strikeouts and two walks in 10 innings, though he allowed five earned runs. His two regular season appearances haven’t been as smooth. He does have four strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings but has also walked four and thrown two wild pitches. Overall, he has a 6.73 ERA in 96 1/3 career innings.
Peyton Pallette, Guardians RHP (selected from White Sox)
Pallette was a second-round pick in 2022. Initially a starter, he eventually moved to relief with some encouraging results. In 2025, he tossed 64 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.06 ERA. His 10.6% walk rate was high but he struck out 32.5% of batters faced.
The Guards brought him into camp and he performed well, firing six scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks. He broke camp and has made two big league appearances thus far, tossing 3 2/3 innings with one earned run allowed. He has struck out three with just one walk, but has also hit a batter and thrown a wild pitch.
Spencer Miles, Blue Jays RHP (selected from Giants)
Miles was a very unusual Rule 5 pick. Drafted in 2022, he barely pitched in the subsequent years due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery. He had exactly 14 2/3 innings of minor league ball on his ledger as of the Rule 5 draft. That would have made him a surprising choice to be taken by any club but it was even more unexpected when he was selected by a club expecting to contend.
Regardless, Miles earned a spot with a decent spring. He tossed 9 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs with 11 strikeouts against five walks. His major league debut was great. On Saturday, he was put into a tied game in the 11th inning. Despite starting with a runner on second, he put up a zero and got the win when the Jays walked it off in the bottom of the frame. His next appearance wasn’t as storybook, as he allowed the Rockies to score three times in an inning and a third.
Cade Winquest, Yankees RHP (selected from Cardinals)
It’s pretty rare for the Yankees to make a pick in the Rule 5 draft and actually keep him. Josh Phelps in 2007 was the last time the Yanks kept a healthy Rule 5 guy on their Opening Day roster. Even that one wasn’t typical, as Phelps made his MLB debut way back in 2000 and already had lots of big league experience.
They decided Winquest was worth breaking that pattern. An eighth-round pick from 2022, Winquest was never really a highly-touted prospect but he had a strong 2025 season. Split between High-A and Double-A, he tossed 106 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate. He didn’t have a dominant spring. He tossed 10 innings, allowing eight earned runs with eight strikeouts. He walked four opponents, hit one more and threw one wild pitch. He broke camp with the club but still hasn’t made his major league debut.
Currently On Major League Injured List
RJ Petit, Rockies RHP (selected from Tigers)
The Rockies took Petit with the very first pick in the Rule 5 draft but he required Tommy John surgery a couple of weeks ago. He has already been placed on the 60-day injured list and will stay there for the entire season. There’s no IL in the offseason, so the Rockies will have to put him back on the 40-man if they plan to carry him into the 2027 season. As mentioned up top, the Rule 5 restrictions would carry over until Petit has been active for 90 days.
Matt Pushard, Cardinals (selected from Marlins)
Pushard landed on the 15-day injured list earlier this week due to right knee patellar tendinitis. His timeline is unclear but there’s nothing to indicate the Cards expect a lengthy absence. Last year, he posted a 3.61 ERA in 62 1/3 Triple-A innings, with a 28.5% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He had a solid spring, tossing 8 2/3 innings with three earned runs allowed, nine strikeouts and two walks. He made one regular season appearance before landing on the IL, allowing three earned runs in one inning of work.
DFA Limbo
Jedixson Páez, RHP (selected by White Sox from Red Sox)
The White Sox took Páez with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft. It was going to be a challenge for him to stick with Chicago as he had never pitched at Triple-A or even at the Double-A level. The White Sox broke camp with him but it wasn’t to be. He made three appearances, allowing six earned runs without striking out a batter. He was designated for assignment earlier this week when the Sox added Lucas Sims to the roster. He is still in DFA limbo but could be back with the Red Sox in the coming days.
Returned To Original Organization
Griff McGarry, RHP (returned to Phillies by Nationals)
McGarry was once a notable prospect for the Phillies but some control problems lowered his stock to the point where he was left exposed in the Rule 5. The Nationals took a chance on him but the wildness remained. He faced 27 batters in spring training and walked five of them, an 18.5% clip that’s about double league average. He also hit one more guy, meaning he gave a free pass to first to 22.2% of the opponents he faced in spring. He didn’t break camp, cleared waivers and was returned to the Phils a bit before Opening Day.
Zach McCambley, RHP (returned to Marlins by Phillies)
McCambley posted a 2.90 ERA in the minors last year, striking out 33.1% of batters faced, giving out walks at an 8.8% clip and inducing grounders on 42% of balls in play. The Phils brought him into camp and he only allowed one earned run in 7 1/3 innings, but he gave out six walks while only striking out four. He cleared waivers and was returned to the Marlins before Opening Day.
Alexander Alberto, RHP (returned to Rays by White Sox)
Like the White Sox’ other pick, Alberto was a long-shot due to a lack of upper-level experience. Both he and Páez had never pitched higher than the High-A level. Alberto tossed 6 2/3 spring innings for the Sox, allowing eight earned runs while striking out seven and walking four. He was put on waivers in mid-March, well before Opening Day, and was given back to the Rays.
Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images
Poll: What Can The Dodgers Expect From Roki Sasaki This Year?
Entering 2025, no addition to the Dodgers was more hyped than young right-hander Roki Sasaki, who signed with the club in international free agency after a protracted recruitment process that involved nearly every team in baseball making an effort to land the talented righty after he was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines.
If you had told baseball fans ahead of the 2025 campaign that the Dodgers would win the World Series, nearly all of them would’ve thought Sasaki would play a much bigger role in that success than he ended up with in reality. That’s not to say Sasaki didn’t contribute, of course. He was a key piece of the Dodgers bullpen during the postseason and pitched to a lights-out 0.84 ERA while collecting three saves in nine appearances during October. Before that, though, he had spent most of the season on the injured list after struggling badly early in the year with a 4.72 ERA and a 6.19 FIP across eight starts where he walked (22) nearly as many batters as he struck out (24).
Given Sasaki’s deep struggles in the rotation last year and his success when pitching out of the bullpen, it would’ve been understandable for fans to expect Sasaki to stay in the bullpen for 2026 while leaving the work in the rotation to more proven starters. That’s not the route the Dodgers ended up going, however, and Sasaki has been installed in the L.A. rotation even after a brutal Spring Training where he was tagged for 15 runs in four starts while walking 28.8% of his opponents and striking out just 23.1%. Spring Training results must be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but results that disastrous brought on by severe control issues can’t be ignored entirely.
It would’ve been easy to expect Sasaki’s rough stint in the rotation last year and his struggles during Spring Training to leave him floundering at the start of the season, but he only added to the enigma surrounding himself when he turned in a strong outing against the Guardians. Sasaki’s first MLB start this year saw him throw four innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts against two walks. An 11.1% walk rate and just four innings of work isn’t exactly what one would hope for from an arm as talented as Sasaki, but it’s undoubtedly a big step in the right direction. If he can keep the walks to a minimum and pitch a bit deeper into games, it’s not hard to imagine the right-hander proving to be a valuable asset to the Dodgers’ rotation mix this year.
Of course, this has all been under the assumption that he’ll stay healthy. That’s never been a safe bet for Sasaki. Prior to spending most of his rookie season in the majors on the injured list, he threw more than 100 innings just twice and topped out at just 129 1/3 frames during his time in Japan. That lack of durability raises some questions about Sasaki’s ability to make 25 to 30 starts at the big league level, even with lower pitch counts than is typically expected for MLB starters. On the other hand, one need look no further than Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet for an example of a pitcher who struggled to stay on the field in his early years but now is coming off a season where he led the AL in innings pitched.
Even if he can stay healthy, a crowded Dodgers rotation could force him out of the starting group if he doesn’t perform. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell are all locked into rotation spots when healthy. That leaves just two spots in a six-man rotation for a group of young starting-capable arms that includes Emmet Sheehan, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt in addition to Sasaki. Not all of these players are healthy now and there figure to be injuries on the Dodgers’ pitching staff all throughout the year, but if Sasaki’s results wind up in a similar range as 2025, it might be hard for the front office to view him as one of their six best starters without a significant rash of injuries.
What are MLBTR readers expecting the Dodgers will get out of Roki Sasaki this year? Will he be able to provide 100 innings or more to the pitching staff? And how effective will the innings he does provide wind up being? Have your say in the polls below: