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Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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After two seasons of lackluster hitting, the Marlins made several moves in the hopes of finally turning around their offense.  The question now becomes if those offensive additions will provide enough help, and whether or not the club’s pitching and defense might take a step backwards.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $12.5MM
Total spending: $25.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $6.3MM mutual option on IF Joey Wendle, $75K buyout (Marlins retained Wendle via arbitration)

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Jon Berti, IF/OF: One year, $2.125MM (includes $25K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2024; if option is declined, Marlins still hold arbitration control over Berti)

Notable Losses

The first step in the Marlins’ offseason was the hiring of a new manager, as Skip Schumaker was brought on board as Don Mattingly’s replacement.  Schumaker is a first-time manager who has a strong resume as a coach with the Cardinals and Padres. He and a mostly new coaching staff will be fresh voices within an organization in need of a shakeup after a 136-188 record over the last two seasons.

Hiring Schumaker and the coaching staff was basically the biggest Marlins news for the first two months of the offseason, though Kim Ng’s front office was undoubtedly very busy in laying the groundwork for future moves.  Heading into the winter, Miami’s gameplan seemed pretty apparent — trade from its surplus of young pitching to land at least one quality hitter who could upgrade the club’s stagnant lineup.  It isn’t surprising that it took the Marlins until January to finally swing that big pitching-for-hitting trade, as most rotation-needy teams first addressed those in free agency rather than meet Miami’s significant asking price.

Such teams as the Rockies, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, and Diamondbacks were all linked to the Marlins in trade talks, with players like Brendan Rodgers, Brett Baty, and Triston Casas reportedly on Miami’s target list.  But, it was the Twins who finally found common ground with the Marlins, resulting in the four-player trade that brought Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for Pablo Lopez and two notable prospects (Jose Salas, Byron Chourio).

The prospect element of the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Marlins’ willingness to part with minor league talent in addition to Lopez indicates just how much they coveted Arraez.  The reigning AL batting champ is exactly the type of high-contact hitter the Fish were seeking as the offseason began, and Arraez’s left-handed bat also helps balance a righty-heavy lineup.  Arraez’s relative lack of power isn’t as important to the Marlins as his ability to put the ball into play and avoid strikeouts, and his three remaining years of arbitration control make him more of a longer-term solution for Miami.

By the time of the Minnesota trade, Arraez’s addition further shook up a Marlins infield that underwent some other changes earlier in January.  Miami traded longtime shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers in exchange for shortstop prospect Jacob Amaya, and dipped into the free agent market to sign Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract.  The infield changes weren’t done there, as after Spring Training began, the Fish inked veterans Yuli Gurriel and Jose Iglesias to minor league contracts.

The end result is a rather unexpected infield alignment.  Segura will be Miami’s starting third baseman, though his career experience at the position consists of 179 2/3 innings in 2020 with the Phillies.  Arraez will play second base, despite some relatively mixed reviews on his glovework from public defensive metrics and how Arraez’s knees (which have been an injury concern in the past) will hold up at a more difficult position than first base.  Joey Wendle will get the bulk of the work at shortstop, with Iglesias (if he makes the team) and utilitymen Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson providing some support since Wendle has played only 647 2/3 innings at short over his seven MLB seasons.  Gurriel could pair with Garrett Cooper for first base duty, with Cooper also likely to see some corner outfield work on occasion.

The name not listed within the infield mix is Jazz Chisholm Jr., as the former second baseman will now move into center field for the first time in his professional career.  Center field has been a longstanding target area for the Marlins, so if Chisholm is able to be even a passable option on the grass without losing any of his hitting stroke, that might be a win for the team.  Of course, there’s plenty of risk involved in Chisholm adopting an entirely new position, perhaps both health-wise (he played only 60 games last season due to a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus) and defensively.  “Passable” glovework might not be enough for a center fielder in the spacious loanDepot Park outfield, especially since Avisail Garcia and projected left fielder Jesus Sanchez are average defenders at best in the corners.

It makes for something of a roll of the dice for Miami, though it is possible some adjustments could be made.  Due to their minor league contracts, it isn’t even a guarantee yet that Gurriel or Iglesias will make the roster, so Arraez might end up being the player sharing time with Cooper at first time.  That would open up second base for either Chisholm or Segura if one of the two are struggling in their new positions, with Berti, Hampson, or (in center field) Sanchez or Bryan De La Cruz able to fill some of the gaps.  Amaya might also get the call for his MLB debut if he hits well at Triple-A, since his glove is already considered to be big league-ready.

If the defense does start springing too many holes, it will be easy to second-guess Miami’s strategy in picking which hitters to target.  Arraez and Segura are above-average hitters who fit the Marlins’ desire for players who can get on base and put the ball into play, putting pressure on opponents to try and defend at loanDepot Park.  Yet, if their offensive contributions are blunted by subpar defense, it will call into question why the Marlins couldn’t have found hitters who were cleaner fits into their lineup without all of the position-juggling.

This isn’t to say the Marlins didn’t look into other options, as they pursued free agents such as Jose Abreu and Justin Turner but were outbid.  Names like Josh Bell, Michael Conforto, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger, and even Willson Contreras also drew at least cursory interest from the Marlins before signing elsewhere.  On the trade front, Miami certainly discussed so many of their pitchers (besides Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez) with so many other teams about a wide variety of hitters that only time will tell if there was ever a better deal out there than the Lopez/Arraez trade.

A questionable defense can also surely lessen the impact of a quality pitching staff.  It is a testament to the Marlins’ pitching depth that the rotation still looks like the team’s strength even without Lopez.  Alcantara is still a top-tier ace, Jesus Luzardo showed plenty of promise when healthy, Edward Cabrera could be on the verge of a breakout, and Trevor Rogers’ solid 2021 season isn’t a distant memory, even if Rogers has to rebound after a disappointing 2022.  Braxton Garrett is the top depth option, but given Garrett’s inexperience and Sixto Sanchez’s uncertain health status, Miami added to this mix with a new face in veteran Johnny Cueto.

After a few injury-riddled and only moderately effective seasons with the Giants, Cueto bounced back with a solid year with the White Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA over 158 1/3 innings.  Despite a lack of velocity and one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, Cueto finessed his way to success by mostly limiting hard contact and still posting an outstanding walk rate.  Even if Cueto has moved into the “crafty veteran” stage of his career, he still looks like he has something to offer in his age-37 season if he can stay off the injured list.

The bullpen was a lot less effective than the rotation last year, so the Fish bolstered the relief corps with a trio of interesting deals.  Grounder specialist Richard Bleier was sent to the Red Sox in exchange for former closer Matt Barnes, J.T. Chargois (and former top-100 infield prospect Xavier Edwards) were picked up from the Rays in a four-player trade, and former fourth overall pick JJ Bleday was moved to the A’s in exchange for A.J. Puk.

It seemed as though Boston wanted to turn the page on Barnes after two seasons of highly volatile performance, as Barnes sandwiched a brutal four months of pitching (August/September 2021 and April/May of 2022) between otherwise very impressive work.  The upside is there for the Marlins, and with the Red Sox offsetting the cost between Barnes and Bleier’s salaries, the price was right for the Fish to acquire a reliever with possible closer potential.  It could also be noted that a grounder-heavy pitcher like Bleier might’ve been seen as less effective for 2023, given the new rules limiting shifts, and the fact that Miami might have a much shakier infield defense.

Chargois has pitched well over the last two seasons in Tampa’s bullpen, and Puk’s first full Major League season was a success, as he was one of only a few highlights in an otherwise rough season for Oakland.  Though the Athletics spoke of stretching Puk out as a starter this spring, his injury history and Miami’s starter depth probably means he’ll remain as a reliever, and he has already shown signs of being a very effective weapon out of the pen.

The Puk trade is also notable for Bleday’s inclusion, as it was one of a few instances this winter of Miami opting to move on from players who seemed like potential building blocks not long ago.  In addition to Bleday heading to Oakland, the Marlins traded Elieser Hernandez to the Mets, put Lewin Diaz and Cole Sulser on waivers to be claimed away, and non-tendered Brian Anderson and Nick Neidert.  Though salary and a preference for other positional options factored into some of these moves, the most obvious common element is that none of these players performed particularly well in 2022.

The Marlins are clearly getting impatient with losing, especially after last winter’s steps to acquire Garcia, Wendle, Jorge Soler, and Jacob Stallings didn’t pan out.  Miami’s ceiling in 2023 may hinge in large part on whether or not any of these players can get back on track, and the Fish have to hope that this offseason’s moves have at the very least elevated the talent floor on the roster.  The defensive re-alignment will be a major storyline to watch in the early days of the season, but if the experimentation with the gloves and the bats work out, the Marlins could be a sneaky team to watch in the NL wild card race.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Veterans With Upcoming Opt-Outs On Minor League Deals

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement just over a year ago, and one of the provisions in that CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year, Opening Day is March 30, meaning that first opt-out opportunity is coming up this Saturday, March 25. Teams will have to make some decisions between now and then about whether or not to give these players roster spots or let them return to the open market to pursue other opportunities. With many teams dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Players who don’t meet this criteria can also negotiate opt-out provisions into their contracts. First baseman Luke Voit has less than six years service time but has an opt-out in his deal with the Brewers, which he recently pushed to this Friday. But the players listed below will have them automatically.

Angels: RHP Chris Devenski

Devenski, 32, had some good seasons with the Astros in 2016 and 2017 but fell off in the two years after. He’s been either hurt or ineffective in the past three campaigns, not reaching 15 innings pitched in any of them. He tossed 14 2/3 frames last year between the Diamondbacks and Phillies with a combined 8.59 ERA. The Halos have a large number of relievers on their roster that can’t be optioned, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for someone like Devenski.

Braves: IF Ehire Adrianza, OF Kevin Pillar and RHP Jesse Chavez

Adrianza, 33, is a light-hitting utility infielder who was with the Nationals last year until the Braves acquired him at the deadline, though injuries limited him to just six games with Atlanta. Pillar, 34, has long been known as a glove-first outfielder. He was drafted by the Blue Jays and worked his way up to the majors when Alex Anthopoulos, now the president of baseball operations in Atlanta, was with the Jays. Pillar got into four games with the Dodgers last year before a shoulder fracture ended his season. Chavez, 39, started last year with the Cubs but was flipped to Atlanta in April for Sean Newcomb. The Braves then sent him to the Angels in the Raisel Iglesias deal but claimed him off waivers a few weeks later. He ended up throwing 69 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.76 ERA.

It’s possible that all three of these guys are on the verge of getting roster spots. The club recently optioned various players on the 40-man, including Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and Nick Anderson. Grissom and Shewmake were in competition for the shortstop job but it seems they will get more seasoning in the minors while Orlando Arcia takes the gig, with Adrianza in backup infield role. Pillar was competing with Luplow and White for a job as a backup outfielder but it seems he may get the nod. The club clearly loves Chavez based on the fact that they acquired him twice last year. The 40-man roster already has a couple of open spots before they’ve even moved Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day injured list. Both of them are going to be out for most or perhaps all of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Atlanta could therefore have four roster spots at their disposal, allowing them to select these three and whichever of Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd gets the fifth starter job.

Brewers: OF Tyler Naquin

Naquin, 32 next month, is a solid platoon bat from the left side. For his career, he’s hit .274/.326/.468 against righties for a 109 wRC+, compared to a .210/.272/.339 line and 62 wRC+ against southpaws. With Tyrone Taylor set to miss the first month of the season with an elbow injury, the club could use another outfielder. As mentioned above, the Brewers also have Voit in camp on a minor league deal, which makes things a little crowded. Voit could have opted out of his deal last week but agreed to push his decision because he and the club seem happy with each other, but the roster decisions still need to be made.

Opening one spot on the 40-man will be easy, as Justin Wilson is set to miss most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and will surely be placed on the 60-day IL shortly. Aaron Ashby could also go to the 60-day as he’s out with a shoulder injury, though the latest reporting indicated that he was targeting a mid-May return, which the club might not want to close off. Beyond the 40-man questions, there’s the fit on the active roster to think about, as adding both Voit and Naquin would likely involve optioning Owen Miller and Brice Turang, or perhaps designating Keston Hiura for assignment. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold recently spoke about some of the “tough decisions” the club has to make.

Dodgers: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward signed an eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs prior to the 2016 campaign but never really lived up to expectations. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he never posted a wRC+ higher than 100, which is league average. Last year, he hit .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of 61 in 48 games. He went on the injured list in late June with a knee injury and never returned. While on the IL, the Cubs announced they would be releasing Heyward at season’s end, despite still having one year left on his contract.

The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and will be responsible for paying him just the MLB minimum salary for any time spent on the big league roster, with the Cubs on the hook for the majority of his salary. Despite not hitting much in recent years, he’s always gotten good grades for his defense, though those numbers have naturally declined as he’s aged. Manager Dave Roberts has recently suggested Heyward is likely to make the club. They’ll need to open a roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gavin Lux to the 60-day IL, as he’s expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Giants: C Roberto Pérez and RHP Joe Ross

Pérez, 34, has long been a well-regarded defensive catcher with a subpar bat. He has a career batting line of .207/.298/.360 but has also racked up 79 Defensive Runs Saved. He only played 21 games for the Pirates last year before hamstring surgery ended his season. The Giants already have two catchers on the roster in Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, but the latter can play other positions and has recently been getting some outfield work. Perhaps that allows Pérez to make the club as a more straightforward backup to Bart, which will necessitate a roster move. Luis González is expected to miss the first half of the season due to back surgery and could be move to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Perez.

Ross, 30 in May, had the second Tommy John surgery of his career last June and isn’t set to return for a while. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January and presumably intends to stick with the organization as he rehabs.

Mariners: OF Kole Calhoun

Calhoun, 35, has had many strong years at the plate but is coming off a pair of rough ones. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL for hamstring issues and only got into 51 games. Last year, he hit .196/.257/.330 with the Rangers, striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances.

The M’s will likely have Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock in their outfield mix. Some recent injuries to Taylor Trammell and Dylan Moore perhaps helped Calhoun’s chances of carving out a bench role, but the club also has Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty on hand as outfield-capable utility players, and outfield prospect Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster.

Marlins: IF Yuli Gurriel and IF José Iglesias

Gurriel, 39 in June, has been an excellent hitter for much of his career but inconsistent of late. He dipped in 2020 but bounced back to winning a batting title in 2021. Another dip followed last year, as he hit .242/.288/.360 for a wRC+ of 85. Iglesias, 33, has long been a light-hitting glove-first shortstop, though his defensive grades have slipped of late. With the Rockies last year, he hit .292/.328/.380 for a wRC+ of 85.

Gurriel seems likely to get a spot based on the way he and the club danced with each other this offseason. They reportedly offered him a $2MM deal at one point but withdrew it after a week went by without a response, later circling back to get this minor league deal done. Iglesias also makes sense as insurance for the club now that Miguel Rojas has been traded to the Dodgers, leaving utility man Joey Wendle as the top option at short. If they want to select both, they’ll need two roster spots. One of them should be easy with Max Meyer set to miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery and bound for the 60-day IL shortly.

Mets: RHP Tommy Hunter

Hunter, 36, is a 15-year veteran who has thrived as a reliever over the past 10 of those. However, injuries have been an issue recently, as he hasn’t topped 25 innings in a season since 2018. With the Mets last year, he posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings but made multiple trips to the IL due to back tightness.

The Mets’ bullpen suffered a huge blow recently with Edwin Díaz likely done for the season due to knee surgery, as Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca also deal with injuries. That could open up a window for someone like Hunter, but the Mets have also said they’d prefer to have some optionable pitchers in the bullpen, which could work against him. If they do want Hunter in the mix, opening a roster spot will be easy with Díaz and José Quintana both destined for the 60-day IL soon.

Nationals: RHP Chad Kuhl, RHP Alex Colomé and LHP Sean Doolittle

Kuhl, 30, had some decent seasons pitching for the Pirates but had an inconsistent season with the Rockies last year. He had a 3.49 ERA through the end of June but then an 8.60 the rest of the way, finishing up at 5.72 combined. Colomé, 34, has been an effective reliever for many years but also found it hard to succeed in Coors. He signed with the Rockies last year and posted a 5.74 ERA on the year. He’s not too far removed from a ridiculous 0.81 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and a 2.80 in 2019.

Kuhl seems to be the favorite to replace Cade Cavalli in the rotation, with the latter set to miss the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. Colomé makes sense for the club given they have few settled options in their bullpen. Opening up two spots should be straightforward since Cavalli and Tanner Rainey are both candidates for the 60-day IL due to Tommy John surgery.

As for Doolittle, he recently spoke about taking it slow in his rehab from last year’s elbow sprain and brace procedure. He isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day but seems happy with his rehab process and would therefore likely forgo his first opt-out opportunity.

Padres: IF Rougned Odor and RHP Craig Stammen

Odor, 29, has long been a one-dimensional hitter, providing power and little else. With the Orioles last year, he hit 13 home runs but slashed .207/.275/.357 for a wRC+ of 80. He’ll be trying to force his way into a bench role in San Diego. One spot will go to a backup catcher, leaving three spots for Odor, Adam Engel, José Azocar, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Tim Lopes and David Dahl. The club doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, which could work against non-roster players like Odor, Lopes and Dahl.

As for Stammen, 39, he recently revealed that he suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula and likely won’t pitch ever again.

Pirates: C Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki, 32, is a career .235/.313/.341 hitter, leading to a wRC+ of 80. That’s bit below average, even for a catcher, but he has good grades for his defense and framing and is considered a strong clubhouse leader. When he was designated by assignment by the Red Sox last year, some players, including current Pirate Rich Hill, spoke publicly about how much they didn’t like Plawecki’s departure. The Rangers added him for the final games of the season even though they weren’t in contention, seemingly valuing those same intangibles.

The Bucs will have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher but seem likely to select Plawecki to be the backup. Hedges is one of only two backstops currently on the 40-man. The other is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was optioned to Triple-A last week. If Plawecki in indeed added, it’s possible that Jarlín García is headed for the 60-day IL, as he’s been shut down for the next four to five weeks with a nerve injury in his biceps area and won’t be able to return until May at the earliest.

Rangers: C Sandy León, LHP Danny Duffy and RHP Ian Kennedy

León, 34, is generally regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate. Last year, he split his time between the Guardians and Twins, hitting .169/.298/.211. For his career, he’s racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and has positive framing numbers from FanGraphs.

The Rangers have three catchers on their 40-man roster in Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Sam Huff. León might have a better path to playing time elsewhere, as multiple clubs around the league are dealing with injuries to their catching corps. Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks was recently diagnosed with a forearm fracture, leaving them with youngsters Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera as their top two. The Athletics only have two catchers on their roster right now and one of them, Manny Piña, will open the season on the injured list.

Duffy, 34, spent years as an effective starter for the Royals, currently sporting a 3.95 career ERA in 234 games. However, he hasn’t pitched July of 2021, when a flexor strain in his forearm sent him to the IL. The Dodgers acquired him from the Royals, hoping for a return to health in the second half, but he suffered a setback. He then underwent surgery but the Dodgers took a chance on him again, signing him to a $3MM deal with a club option for 2023 and hoping for a return late in 2022. He never made it back to the mound and the Dodgers declined his option at season’s end. General manager Chris Young listed Duffy as a closer candidate in January, but he’s yet to appear in a game this spring.

Kennedy, 38, had an effective half season of relief with the Rangers in 2021, posting a 2.51 ERA before getting flipped to the Phillies. He had a 4.13 ERA after the deal and then slumped to a 5.36 mark with the Diamondbacks last year. The club doesn’t currently have an obvious candidate to put on the 60-day IL, which could work against Kennedy’s chances of cracking the roster.

Rays: IF/OF Charlie Culberson and OF Ben Gamel

Culberson, 34 next month, is a veteran journeyman who brings much defensive versatility to the table. He’s played every position except catcher and center field in his career. With the Rangers last year, he hit .252/.283/.357 for a wRC+ of 81.

Gamel, 31 in May, was with the Pirates last year and hit .232/.324/.369 for a wRC+ of 97. He’s had modest platoon splits for his career but they were exaggerated last year. The left-handed hitter slashed .252/.342/.409 against righties for a wRC+ of 112 but just .175/.273/.258 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 56.

The Rays have a tight roster and spent most of the winter making cuts from it, which could make it tough for either of these players to make it. But if either played is deemed worthy, Shane Baz is destined for the 60-day IL soon due to his Tommy John rehab, making it easy to open a spot for someone.

Reds: OF Chad Pinder, RHP Chase Anderson and RHP Hunter Strickland

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career with the Athletics until reaching free agency this winter. He’s a super utility guy, able to play anywhere on the field but catcher. He’s didn’t have his best season last year, walking just 3.7% of the time and striking out at a 31.1% clip, but his career batting line is a serviceable .242/.294/.417 for a wRC+ of 96.

Anderson, 35, had some good years on his track record but hasn’t been able to post an ERA under 6.00 since 2019. He got into nine games for the Reds last year with a 6.38 ERA. He was recently transferred from minor league camp to major league camp, suggesting he has a legitimate chance at earning a job.

Strickland, 34, had some good years with the Giants but has gone into journeyman mode recently. He made 66 appearances with the Reds last year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while walking 11.6% of batters faced.

The Reds should be able to open a roster spot by transferring Justin Dunn to the 60-day IL, as he’s going to be out for a few months with a shoulder issue.

Rockies: IF Mike Moustakas

Moustakas, 34, had many good years with the Royals and Brewers but his four-year deal with the Reds didn’t go very well. He was fine in the shortened 2020 season but largely injured and ineffective for the past two years. He got into 78 contests last year but hit just .214/.295/.345.

Moving his home to Coors Field could give him a boost if he’s healthy. The Rockies could use help at third base after second baseman Brendan Rodgers suffered a potentially season-ending injury. The club’s plan is to move Ryan McMahon from third to second, freeing up the hot corner for someone like Moustakas.

Opening up a spot should be straightforward, with Rodgers and Sean Bouchard both set to miss extensive time and easy calls to be placed on the 60-day IL.

Royals: OF Jackie Bradley Jr. and IF Matt Duffy

Bradley, 33 next month, has long been an excellent defender with an okay bat, but his offense has been awful for the past two seasons. Last year, splitting his time between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he hit .203/.255/.311 for a wRC+ of 56.

Duffy, 32, is a versatile utility player who can cover any infield position and has some limited corner outfield experience. He’s not coming off a great year at the plate, as he hit .250/.308/.311 with the Angels for a wRC+ of 78, but he’s had better results in the past.

The Royals optioned a few notable position players earlier today, potentially open the door for these two and Franmil Reyes to make the Opening Day squad. They can open up one 40-man roster spot by moving Jake Brentz to the 60-day IL, as he’ll be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but finding two more spots will require alternative solutions.

Tigers: IF César Hernández and RHP Trevor Rosenthal

Hernández, 33 in May, is primarily a second baseman who is coming off a bizarre power surge and then a blackout. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season until he hit 21 in 2021, but then he had just a single homer last year. His final batting line with the Nats last year was .248/.311/.318, wRC+ of 79. Assuming Nick Maton is taking the third base job in Detroit, Hernández is competing for a bench spot along with players like Zack Short, Andre Lipcius and Andy Ibañez.

Rosenthal, 33 in May, has occasionally been one of the best relievers on the planet, including his 2020 campaign. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 appearances, striking out 41.8% of batters he faced. However, various injuries have prevented him from pitching at all in the past two seasons. He recently spoke about how he may not be ready for Opening Day but is happy with his rehab process with the Tigers. It’s possible he forgoes his opt out in order to continue his work with the training staff.

The club doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate and they might also want to add non-roster invitees like Chasen Shreve or Trey Wingenter, creating a bit of a roster squeeze.

Twins: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez, 30, had an excellent season back in 2016, posting an ERA of 3.00 over 30 starts with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, injuries have diminished his workload and results in recent years. He had a 6.60 ERA in 15 appearances for the Nationals and Twins last year.

He twice accepted outright assignments with the Twins last year and then re-signed on a minor league deal in the winter. He doesn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot at the moment but seems to be comfortable with the organization. He’ll soon have a chance to return to the open market but the relationship is good enough for him to stick around.

White Sox: IF Hanser Alberto and OF Billy Hamilton

Alberto, 30, is a light-hitting utility option. He spent last year with the Dodgers, spending time at all four infield positions in addition to some corner outfield work. He hit .244/.258/.365 for a wRC+ of 73. He was signed to bolster Chicago’s uncertain second base position, but that was before they solidified it by adding Elvis Andrus.

Hamilton, 32, has long been one of the game’s best defenders in the outfield and speediest baserunners. However, hit bat has always lagged behind. He got into 37 games between the Marlins and Twins last year but hit .050/.136/.050. His career batting line is .239/.292/.326 for a wRC+ of 66. The club came into spring with a question mark in right field but it seems like prospect Oscar Colás is trending towards taking that job.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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The AL East was perhaps the strongest division in baseball last season, with three teams that made the postseason, four that finished above .500, and a fifth place team that would have finished third in most other divisions. Given that divisional strength last season, it’s no surprise that Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds give every team in the AL East at least an 8% chance to make the playoffs. By contrast, no other division’s projected last place team tops Detroit’s 3.1% odds. With Opening Day just over a week away, let’s take a look at the AL East’s five clubs (in order of their finish in the 2022 standings) in search of the division’s next champion.

New York Yankees (99-63 in 2022)

The Yankees were historically dominant in the first half of the 2022 season, but struggled to a 43-42 finish in the regular season after the calendar flipped to July, largely buoyed by the heroics of AL MVP (and pending free agent) Aaron Judge. Most of the focus this offseason in the Bronx was on retaining Judge, which they did on a nine-year deal. They also re-signed Anthony Rizzo to lock down first base, but signed just two new players to big league deals this offseason: lefty ace Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal while reliever Tommy Kahnle signed on for two years. What’s worth, both of those free agent acquisitions are expected to open the season on the injured list alongside trade deadline pickups Harrison Bader and Frankie Montas.

Between an offseason marked by a low quantity (though high quality) of additions and a slew of spring injuries, this Yankees team looks unlikely to reach the heights they did in the first half of 2022, having lost the likes of Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter to free agency this offseason, but perhaps healthy returns from the likes of Rodon and Bader can help them improve upon their second half struggles from last season, to say nothing of exciting prospects like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe who seem likely to impact the club at some point this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (92-70 in 2022)

After a solid campaign that saw the Blue Jays return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2016, Toronto was aggressive in mixing up their roster throughout the offseason. In an effort to get more left-handed and improve the defense, the club added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield mix at the expense of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while also landing Brandon Belt to solidify the DH spot. As for the pitching staff, Chris Bassitt was brought in to solidify the middle of the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while Erik Swanson will strengthen the back of the Toronto bullpen.

While the Blue Jays certainly made significant changes over the course of the season, whether they can surpass the Yankees to claim the division crown will likely require returns to form for some players who performed below expectations in 2022, such as Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom figure to open the season in the rotation despite posting ERAs north of 5.00 last season.

Tampa Bay Rays (86-76 in 2022)

After making their fourth consecutive postseason in 2022, the Rays had a very quiet offseason, with no major trade acquisitions and right-hander Zach Eflin standing as their lone major league signing. Indeed, it seems most of Tampa Bay’s resources were dedicated to extensions, as they agreed to long-term deals with Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz, and Jeffery Springs shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. That left the roster churn this offseason to be defined by departures rather than additions, as key players like Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi departed the organization.

Still, the Rays have plenty of assets in place with which to make things interesting, as young players like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Isaac Parades turned in excellent performances in 2022. With so few changes to the roster following a season where they finished 13 games back in the division race, however, the Rays are likely going to have to bank on improved health from stars Tyler Glasnow and Wander Franco along with bigger contributions from players who struggled last season like Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Francisco Mejia if they are to claim the NL East crown this year.

Baltimore Orioles (83-79 in 2022)

The Orioles were one of the most fascinating stories of the 2022 season, as the club surged in the summer months toward surprise contention after not having won more than 54 games since 2017, though they ultimately failed to make the postseason. With young talent like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez all either already in the big leagues or knocking on the door, with still more prospects to come, it seemed as though the rebuild in Baltimore was over.

Expectations have surely been tempered among the Orioles faithful after a relatively quiet offseason, however. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens made up the club’s free agent signings this offseason. That said, Mike Elias’s front office did fairly well on the trade market, picking up Cole Irvin to solidify the rotation and James McCann to back up Rutschman. After a surprise surge over .500 in 2022, it’s easy to imagine the Orioles slipping back underwater in 2023. That being said, with so much young talent breaking into the majors and percolating in the upper levels of the farm system, they certainly can’t be ruled out from making a surprise push into playoff contention or even toward the division title.

Boston Red Sox (78-84 in 2022)

2022 was a difficult season for the Red Sox, as the club finished three games under .500 despite opting not to sell off valuable players like Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez who went on to walk in free agency this offseason. The headline move of this offseason for the Red Sox has to be Rafael Devers signing a ten-year extension back in January, but the Red Sox were active players in the offseason marketplace as well, adding Mastaka Yoshida, Corey Kluber, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Adalberto Mondesi, among others. Still, the departures of Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha, in addition to the deadline trade that sent Christian Vazquez out of the organization, all left plenty of question marks on the roster.

Those questions are particularly worrisome up the middle, where the Red Sox figure to use Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Christian Arroyo to open the season. The Red Sox enter 2023 with more than enough talent on the roster to attempt to return to contention this season. That being said, there’s enough question marks and holes in the roster that it’s just as easy to see another sub-.500 season from this club as it is to see a return to the playoffs after missing out in 2022.

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While this division ultimately seems most likely to come down to the Yankees and the Blue Jays, who both finished well ahead of the competition in 2022 and improved most significantly over the offseason, the AL East could certainly see all five of its clubs in the thick of the postseason hunt come the summertime. What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Yankees reclaim the crown, will the Blue Jays or Rays surge from their Wild Card spots to capture the division title, or will the Orioles or Red Sox surprise? Let us know in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves were the offseason’s least active free agent spender. With payroll mounting, they allowed a star hitter to depart for a second straight offseason. Atlanta instead landed arguably the top player of the winter trade market, promptly extending him to join a loaded internal group.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $1.4MM
Total spending: $1.4MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jake Odorizzi exercised $12.5MM player option instead of $6.25MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Tyler Matzek to two-year, $3.1MM extension (deal also contains 2025 club option and potentially buys out one free agent year)
  • Signed C Sean Murphy to six-year, $73MM extension (deal also contains 2029 club option and potentially buys out four free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Braves had an otherworldly second half to secure their fifth consecutive NL East title. Unlike the year before, they weren’t able to catch fire during the postseason. After losing in the Division Series to the Phillies, Atlanta went into the offseason again facing the potential departure of a star position player.

As was the case with Freddie Freeman a year ago, there was some early belief the Braves wouldn’t part ways with Dansby Swanson. The former first overall pick is a Georgia native and had emerged as a clubhouse leader, to say nothing of his excellent durability and quality production on both sides of the ball. Yet reports even before the offseason began suggested Atlanta had floated around $100MM in extension talks — a number that might’ve been acceptable early in the year but looked very light by the start of the offseason.

Atlanta made Swanson a qualifying offer that he predictably rejected. There didn’t seem to be much further contact; Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported in early December that Atlanta and Swanson’s camp hadn’t had any real negotiations since the start of the offseason. Two weeks after that, Swanson was a Cub. His $177MM guarantee with Chicago shattered Atlanta’s reported offer from during the season. The Braves picked up a compensatory draft pick but go into 2023 with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years.

Swanson was one of four All-Star caliber shortstops available in free agency. Atlanta was never substantively linked to any of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts either, hinting at the payroll questions that surrounded the organization throughout the winter. No organization has been as successful as the Braves at signing early-career players to long-term extensions. Deals for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II have locked in a core that should compete throughout the decade. Yet those contracts have run up the payroll, limiting the club’s flexibility to attack free agency.

Atlanta entered the winter with a projected franchise-record payroll. The Liberty Media ownership group floated the notion of running top five payrolls in the near future. That raised the expectations among some within the fanbase but always felt a bit misleading, as Atlanta’s existing commitments put them in the back half of the top ten in spending already. There simply didn’t seem to be much room for the front office to play the open market.

No other team spent less in free agency. Atlanta’s only major league free agent signees were corner outfielder Jordan Luplow and relievers Nick Anderson and Jackson Stephens (the latter two of whom signed split deals that pay less for time spent in the minors). All three players had been cut at the start of the offseason — Stephens by the Braves themselves — and none will open this year on the MLB roster. Luplow and Anderson have already been optioned to Triple-A, while Atlanta ran Stephens through waivers and sent him outright to Gwinnett.

Without much spending capacity, Braves’ brass turned to the trade market to bolster a win-now roster. Atlanta orchestrated arguably the biggest trade of the winter, a three-team blockbuster that registered as a major surprise. There was never much doubt the rebuilding A’s would trade Sean Murphy. However, few would’ve pegged Atlanta as the landing spot back in November. The Braves already had a quality catching group consisting of Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras and Manny Piña. There were plenty of other teams with a more dire catching need.

Murphy is a special player, though, one whom Atlanta pursued despite that positional depth. He’s among the sport’s best defensive catchers and has hit at an above-average level throughout his four-season career. Murphy has topped 15 home runs in each of the last two years despite playing his home games in one of the sport’s least favorable offensive environments. He draws walks, has power, and posted a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate last season. There aren’t many more valuable all-around catchers.

Even a team with as much depth as the Braves would upgrade from adding a player of that caliber. Shortly after the Winter Meetings, Atlanta pulled it off by looping in the Brewers in a three-team deal that would send young outfielder Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee to Oakland. Contreras, a quality hitter with some defensive concerns, was shipped off to Milwaukee as their catcher of the future. Piña headed back to the A’s as part of a salary offset. The Braves relinquished some upper level rotation depth, packaging Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok and High-A pitching prospect Royber Salinas to Oakland. Atlanta gave up a handful of well-regarded players but no one in that group looks like the kind of headliner the Braves will be devastated to lose, particularly since Murphy steps in as an immediate upgrade over the best player they relinquished.

A big part of Murphy’s appeal was his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. While he was controllable at below-market rates through 2025, Atlanta committed to him as part of the core long before he ever donned a Braves uniform. Within weeks of the trade, Murphy and the Braves had agreed to a $73MM extension that buys out three free agent years and gives the club an affordable $15MM option for a fourth. It was another extension that has the potential to be a team-friendly pact and aligns well with the contention window for this core.

With Murphy in the fold, d’Arnaud gets pushed into the role of overqualified backup. Atlanta quickly made clear they wouldn’t look to trade him. They’ll instead deploy him frequently as the designated hitter and on rest days for Murphy. It served to indirectly upgrade a DH position that was one of the few position player weaknesses on the roster.

How to divvy up DH playing time dovetails with one of the other questionable spots: left field. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t performed well through the first two seasons of a four-year deal. He’s still due $37MM over the next couple seasons and remains on the roster. Atlanta looks set to give him another shot to reestablish himself offensively while splitting time between left field and DH.

That’s also true of Eddie Rosario. He followed up his 2021 World Series heroics with a disastrous ’22 campaign, hitting .212/.259/.328 in 80 games. The organization has attributed those struggles to an eye issue for which he underwent corrective vision surgery last April. There’s presumably some merit to that but Rosario has been one of the sport’s streakiest players throughout his eight-year MLB career. He’s not likely to be as bad as he was last season but he’s also not the established offensive force a team would be enthused to have in left field.

Rather than bring in a clear upgrade, Atlanta took a volume approach to left field. Luplow signed to add a right-handed matchup bat to the mix. The Braves took a flier on the toolsy Sam Hilliard, a former Rockie with big power but massive strikeout tallies. Atlanta also acquired defensive specialist Eli White from the Rangers and brought in veteran Kevin Pillar on a minor league deal. Adam Duvall and Robbie Grossman were allowed to depart in free agency. Hilliard and Pillar remain in MLB camp and could have the leg up on season-opening bench spots, with Hilliard out of minor league options and Pillar having the right to retest free agency if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It’s a hodgepodge of options without a clear solution, one where the organization seems set to take a hot hand approach. Whoever’s in left will be joined by two of the sport’s top young outfielders in Harris and Acuña. It’s a similar story on the infield, where three stars are joined by one area of concern.

Olson and Albies will be back on the left side of the infield. Riley has third base secured. Atlanta maintained throughout the winter it’d be an open competition to replace Swanson. There seemed a general expectation that 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom would take that job after he flashed some offensive potential last season while Albies was injured. Grissom’s production tailed off after a scorching start and prospect evaluators aren’t convinced he’ll be able to handle the position defensively. Atlanta settled the Opening Day shortstop debate yesterday, optioning both Grissom and former first-round pick Braden Shewmake to Gwinnett.

The job now falls to Orlando Arcia, an experienced utility option whose career offensive track record is below-average. The 28-year-old hit at a decent .244/.316/.416 clip in part-time action last season, however. The Braves will go with stability over upside in the early going, turning to Arcia and likely tabbing non-roster invitee Ehire Adrianza as a utility option off the bench. There’s no question they’re in for a downgrade relative to Swanson, though that would’ve been true regardless of which player won the job. Arcia is an unexciting stopgap whom the club will count on as a low-end regular while giving Grissom and Shewmake more developmental run. The Braves could have turned to a veteran free agent like Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias for little cost but apparently don’t consider either to be a better player than Arcia.

While a veteran won the shortstop job out of camp, Atlanta’s fifth starter role looks as if it’ll fall to a rookie. The Braves have an elite top four with Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Atlanta cleared a path to the fifth spot for a young pitcher at the start of the offseason, paying down $10MM of Jake Odorizzi’s $12.5MM contract to offload him to Texas. That deal brought back former first-round pick Kolby Allard, who has gotten hit hard at the MLB level and will start the year on the injured list because of an oblique issue.

With Odorizzi out of the picture, the fifth starter job seemed to fall to one of Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Michael Soroka. Soroka fell out of the Opening Day mix by suffering a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Anderson and Elder got leapfrogged on the depth chart by prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, both of whom have excelled in camp. Anderson and Elder were optioned out, leaving Dodd and Shuster to battle for the fifth spot. Neither has yet played in MLB; they’re both coming off strong seasons in the upper minors and have quality secondary stuff and command to compensate for mediocre velocity.

As with any team, the Braves are sure to cycle through a number of pitchers at the back of the rotation as injuries and performance necessitate. The fifth spot shouldn’t be a huge concern thanks to the elite front four and a bullpen that again looks like one of the game’s best. They let closer Kenley Jansen walk after one very good season in Atlanta but have ample possibilities to fill the high-leverage innings.

The Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at last summer’s deadline as a ready-made closing replacement for Jansen. A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee are excellent setup options from the left side. Atlanta brought in veteran specialist Lucas Luetge in a trade after he was designated for assignment by the Yankees to add a third quality left-hander. Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates are right-handed setup options. The Braves landed one of the better relievers available in trade this offseason, sending third base/corner outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy to Detroit for the final arbitration season of hard-throwing righty Joe Jiménez.

That’s seven spots accounted for if everyone’s healthy. Anderson and Stephens could get looks in a depth capacity at some point. Old friend Jesse Chavez is back in camp as a non-roster invitee and might get the first crack at a long relief role. Atlanta agreed to a two-year deal with Tyler Matzek to cement him as a part of the 2024 relief corps, though he won’t be available this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Once the offseason roster work was complete, the Braves turned their attention to a couple administrative concerns. Atlanta signed manager Brian Snitker to an extension that runs through 2025, tacking on two guaranteed seasons to his existing deal. That came on the heels of a notable front office departure, with vice president of scouting Dana Brown departing in January to take over baseball operations with the Astros.

There were a few high-level changes this winter but much of the Braves’ offseason is built around continuity. The Braves struck for one of the biggest trades and added a couple relievers in smaller deals. They did virtually nothing in free agency while watching Swanson and Jansen sign elsewhere. While it may not have been the most exciting winter for the fanbase, the Braves will head into the season with a legitimate goal of claiming a sixth straight NL East title. The organization has committed to this core and the group will try to again hold off the ascendant Mets and Phillies in arguably the game’s most competitive division.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Braves on March 22. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Atlanta offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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While other NL powers loaded up during the offseason, the Dodgers had a comparatively quiet winter that focused more on shorter-term contracts.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $53.3MM
Total spending: $53.3MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been dealt a pair of significant injury blows in Spring Training, between Tony Gonsolin’s ankle sprain and the much larger-scale problem of Gavin Lux’s season-ending ACL tear.  These injuries only added to a general sense of unease within the L.A. fanbase, considering that in the aftermath of another playoff disappointment, the Dodgers took a pretty conservative approach to reloading for the 2023 season.

To this end, Dodgers fans might take solace in the fact that there might still be a gap between their team and the rest of the National League, considering that Los Angeles won 111 games last season.  The team’s apparent (and now abandoned) plan to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset its penalty status isn’t exactly a new strategy for the Dodgers, considering they didn’t pay any luxury tax in any of the 2018-20 seasons.  Plus, the standard winter plan for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been to take things relatively slow in the offseason apart from perhaps one major addition, i.e. signing Freddie Freeman in 2021-22, signing Trevor Bauer in 2020-21, or trading for Mookie Betts in 2019-20.

This offseason simply lacked that one headline-grabbing move, though it isn’t as if Los Angeles didn’t make some explorations.  The club reportedly had some level of interest in such marquee free agents as Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, and even Aaron Judge, as well as other notable free agent and trade targets like Andrew McCutchen, Seth Lugo, the Brewers’ Willy Adames, and Kolten Wong (who ended up dealt from the Brewers to the Mariners).

Of course, the Dodgers’ financial strength and farm system depth can allow them to at least consider pretty much any player in baseball, and it could be that some of those pursuits were simple due diligence.  The end result of the Dodgers’ winter machinations was a series of short-term signings, as L.A. didn’t give any free agent beyond one guaranteed year.  Shortstop Miguel Rojas was signed to a contract extension soon after being acquired from the Marlins, but even that deal is only guaranteed through the 2024 season.

Rojas joins Betts, Freeman, Gonsolin, Austin Barnes, and Chris Taylor as the only Dodgers officially under contract for the 2024 season, and Betts, Freeman and Taylor are the only players on the books for 2025 and beyond.  As such, Los Angeles could possibly look to reset its luxury tax status next winter, though it’ll be a bit trickier for Friedman since he’ll have to navigate a plethora of club option decisions, as well as deciding whether or not to try and re-sign any of this year’s free agent additions, plus Julio Urias’ impending entry into free agency.

Bauer’s situation was undoubtedly a major factor in the Dodgers’ approach to the 2022-23 offseason.  The league issued Bauer a 324-game suspension last April under the MLB/MLBPA joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, and after Bauer appealed the decision, an neutral arbitrator reduced the suspension to 194 games.  This covered the time Bauer had already missed, and thus he was reinstated from suspension and his remaining $22.5MM in salary was returned to the Dodgers’ payroll.  (The Dodgers released Bauer within a few weeks of the arbitrator’s ruling, but naturally the team is still obligated to pay the money owed.)  Since the club’s estimated luxury tax number is roughly $245.1MM, Los Angeles would have been under the $233MM tax threshold with room to spare without Bauer’s salary on the books.

With this financial outlook in mind, Kershaw and Jimmy Nelson were the only members of the Dodgers’ lengthy free agent list to return to Chavez Ravine, as the team saw Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle all head elsewhere on multi-year contracts.  The Dodgers also added to their list of free agents with some notable non-tenders and declined club options, most notably Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner.

Los Angeles’ focus on filling those roster holes was split into two fronts.  Firstly, the Dodgers are eager to see what they have in a wide array of big league-ready young talent.  Miguel Vargas is slated to be the club’s regular second baseman, as the former top prospect has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level.  James Outman figures to be part of the outfield picture at some point this season, if perhaps not on the Opening Day roster.  Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are competing to see who earns a rotation spot in Gonsolin’s absence, and pitching prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are also on the verge of debuting in the majors.  Other top-100 prospects like Michael Busch and Andy Pages could also be in the big leagues before 2023 is over, and the Dodgers also picked up an interesting young player from outside the organization in utilityman Yonny Hernandez.

Many teams would be excited to have just one or two of those prospects ready to step up, so the Dodgers’ deep minor league pipeline is something of an embarrassment of riches for a big-market club that is also willing to spend.  Rather than put too much pressure on the youngsters, Los Angeles augmented the roster with some veteran names that might prove a more immediate benefit in 2023.

The Dodgers seemingly kept up hope that they could re-sign Justin Turner for much of the winter, but ultimately pivoted to another experienced former All-Star in J.D. Martinez.  As pretty much a DH-only player at this point in his career, Martinez’s lack of versatility is a bit of a departure from the Dodgers’ usual model of player acquisition, yet the team is hopeful that Martinez can get fully on track after his power numbers dipped with the Red Sox last season.  Even with a lack of slugging, Martinez still provided Boston with above-average (119 wRC+) production while hitting .274/.341/.448 over 596 plate appearances.

While Bellinger’s precipitous dropoff at the plate had already turned the former NL MVP into more of a platoon player, Los Angeles still needed to replace Bellinger’s strong defense and bolster the outfield depth on the whole.  In signing Peralta and Heyward, the Dodgers added a pair of left-handed hitters to balance out the lineup, with Peralta probably more of an offense-focused signing while Heyward brings the glovework.  Peralta projects as the regular left fielder against right-handed pitching, whereas Heyward’s playing time figures to hinge on how much the Dodgers are willing to play him in center field when Trayce Thompson is out of the lineup, or how much time Heyward might get in his customary right field spot if Betts is being used at second base.  The versatile Taylor will also get playing time in both the outfield and infield, at multiple positions.

Lux’s injury was a massive blow for many reasons, most obviously because an up-and-coming young player has had his career sidetracked for an entire year.  The Dodgers were confident enough in Lux’s ability to become the everyday shortstop that they didn’t make much of an effort to re-sign Trea Turner, nor did the team make too deep an incursion into the free agent shortstop market (apart from checking in on Bogaerts and Swanson).  With Rojas acquired from the Marlins to provide some more depth, Los Angeles was ready to give Lux a full opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big league shortstop.

With the worst-case scenario now visited upon Lux and the Dodgers, Rojas has been thrust into everyday duty.  It certainly isn’t an unfamiliar spot for Rojas given his years of experience in Miami, and if he continues to deliver his usual strong defense, the Dodgers might be okay with Rojas’ inconsistent bat considering the offense elsewhere in the regular lineup.  Taylor and Hernandez can also chip in at shortstop if needed, but this also stands out as a position where the Dodgers could add some outside help.  Spring Training is “not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman recently noted to media, but speculatively, L.A. might look to target shortstops at the trade deadline if Rojas and company can hold the fort until midseason.

On the pitching side, the rotation still looks strong even with Gonsolin is temporarily out of action.  Assuming Pepiot or Grove can capably fill in as the fifth starter, Los Angeles has Urias, Dustin May in his full-season return after Tommy John surgery, franchise icon Kershaw, and newcomer Noah Syndergaard in the top four.

Though it took close to a month for Kershaw to officially re-sign with the Dodgers after news broke of his agreement with the team, there wasn’t much mystery about his latest free agent venture, as Kershaw pretty quickly agreed to return for his 16th season in Los Angeles.  Because Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and has such a lengthy injury history, he can’t be considered an entirely sure thing, yet Kershaw has established a pretty clear “new normal” for himself at this stage in his career.  The southpaw has been limited to 22 starts in each of the last two seasons due to wear-and-tear types of injuries, yet when Kershaw has pitched, he has still looked like a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Anderson posted outstanding numbers in his one season in Los Angeles, but while Syndergaard isn’t being counted on to truly replace Anderson, Syndergaard would naturally love to follow that model of a career resurgence.  While the righty had a solid 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies in 2022, Syndergaard is hoping for more now that he is more fully removed from the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.  It remains to be seen if Syndergaard can get back to his past All-Star level from his days with the Mets, but such a scenario can’t be ruled out given the Dodgers’ past success at getting veteran pitchers on track.

L.A. mostly stood pat with its relief corps, at least in the short term.  The acquisitions of Alex Reyes and J.P. Feyereisen are longer-term upside plays for later in the 2023 season, since both pitchers are recovering from shoulder surgeries.  Nelson also missed all of 2022 due to TJ surgery, but the Dodgers were confident enough in his ability to return that Nelson was re-signed to a new guaranteed big league deal.  Los Angeles also gave Shelby Miller a one-year MLB deal in the hopes that Miller can finally establish himself as a relief pitcher, despite Miller’s lack of results or even playing time at the Major League level in recent years.

While these signings may look uninspiring, an argument can be made that the Dodgers didn’t need to do much beyond tinker with a bullpen that was one of the league’s best in 2022.  Seeing who (if anyone) steps into a full-time closer role will be an interesting story to watch as the season progresses, and the Dodgers figure to be somewhat fluid with their bullpen mix depending on whether any of the rotation prospects end up debuting as relievers, or if trade possibilities emerge.

That kind of wait-and-see element might extend to the roster as a whole, as the front office has shown in the past that it will be aggressive in making in-season moves, whether it’s lower-level pickups or trade deadline blockbusters.  It could be that Friedman will save the “one headline-grabbing move” for the deadline, when the Dodgers have a better idea of their needs, how the younger players are fitting in, and what veterans have or haven’t contributed.  There is some risk in this strategy, but these are the risks an 111-win team can afford to make considering that it seems quite unlikely that the Dodgers will fall out of the playoff race.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
  • OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
  • Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
  • RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.

From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.

After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.

With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.

All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.

With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.

After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.

The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.

With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.

We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.

This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.

Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.

Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason review, we hosted a Padres-focused chat on March 21. You can click here to read the transcript.

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

————-

The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

(poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The National League champions reloaded for another run at the World Series, including a $300MM splurge on Trea Turner.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $64.77M
Total spending: $399MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Months before the end of the regular season and before the Phillies made their Cinderella run through the playoffs, there was already speculation that the club would be targeting a major upgrade at shortstop.  Philadelphia at least checked in each of the “big four” free agent shortstops (Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), and there was at least some early indication that Xander Bogaerts might be atop the team’s list due to his past Red Sox history with Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb outlined in a piece in early December, Turner quickly emerged as the Phillies’ top priority, and the feeling seemed mutual on shortstop’s end.  Turner was already friendly with Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long from their days together with the Nationals, and Philadelphia was an ideal geographical choice since the Turner family was reportedly prioritizing a move to the East Coast.  Turner liked the fit enough that he reportedly turned down a $342MM offer from the Padres to join the Phillies.

Of course, it’s not like Turner exactly took a bargain rate.  He became one of just six players to hit the $300MM threshold on a free-agent deal, and the Phillies’ second such signing (after Harper) within the last four years.  There are plenty of similarities between the Harper and Turner contracts, including the fact that the Phillies spread out their money over the 13-year and 11-year spans of the respective deals in order to minimize the luxury tax hit as best as possible.

The Phillies had never exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax prior to the 2022 season, yet managing partner John Middleton has never been shy about spending during his seven-plus years in control of the franchise.  That willingness to spend has now manifested into a deeper plunge into tax territory, as the Phillies’ current tax bill is projected at roughly $259.8MM — well over the second CBT penalty tier of $253MM.  This means that the Phillies will pay a heavier tax rate both for this higher payroll, as for exceeding the CBT for two consecutive seasons.  Exceeding the CBT line in 2022 also put extra consequences on the Turner signing, as because Turner rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Phillies had to give up $1MM in international bonus money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.

That said, it’s a price ownership seem happy to pay now that the Phillies are finally back in contention.  2022 marked the Phils’ first postseason appearance since the 2011 season, and with an NL pennant now flying, the organization is eager to take the next step and lock down a World Series.  Dombrowski’s front office will get plenty of opportunity to achieve this goal, as ownership extended Dombrowski through the 2027 season, and GM Sam Fuld and assistants GMs Jorge Velandia and Ned Rice all received extensions running through the 2025 season.

It will still be some time before we see the ideal version of this Phillies team, since Harper will be out until roughly the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Even then, the Phils plan to utilize Harper only as a DH during the initial days or weeks of his return, with an eye towards possibly getting him back to his regular right-field duty by later in the season.  While it’s an open question as to how any player will bounce back after a Tommy John procedure, it’s probably a good sign that Harper still posted superstar numbers in 2022 despite playing through a torn UCL for most of the season.  Even a B or B+ version of Harper is still a boost to any lineup, so the Phillies will be eager to have him back as soon as possible.

Turner broadly fills the superstar gap in Harper’s absence, and he’ll add even more speed to an aggressive Philadelphia squad that finished fifth in MLB in stolen bases last year.  The metrics have always been a little split on Turner from a defensive perspective, but between both his bat and his glove, there is no doubt he is a gigantic upgrade for the Phils at the shortstop position.  Neither Didi Gregorius or Bryson Stott contributed much at shortstop over the course of the regular season, though Stott seemed to adjust later in his rookie season and at least managed to hold the fort as the regular starter throughout the playoffs.

Philadelphia saw enough in Stott that the former first-rounder is now being tasked with regular second base work, as the Phils let Jean Segura go to free agency (and a deal with the Marlins) after his $17MM club option was declined.  While the Phillies would love to see Stott establish himself as a Major League regular, a win-now team can’t afford to give too much rope to a young player, which is why veteran Josh Harrison was signed to a one-year contract.  Harrison and in-house utilityman Edmundo Sosa will provide depth at multiple positions, yet second base might be their first stop on the diamond if Stott requires a platoon partner or a timeshare.

Sticking with the Phillies’ bench situation, catchers Aramis Garcia and John Hicks were signed to minor league deals to add some more options behind the plate.  These signings might prove valuable considering that Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan are dealing with injury problems, leaving Philadelphia perhaps looking for a new secondary backstop to support All-Star J.T. Realmuto.

Donny Sands was formerly part of this catching mix, but Sands was dealt along with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton in a trade that shook up the Philadelphia bench.  The Phils sent the trio to Detroit in exchange for reliever Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens, and while the versatile Clemens will help fill the void left by Vierling and Maton, Soto was the prize of the trade.

Soto is a two-time All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season.  There is plenty of volatility in Soto’s game, as he has an ungainly 13.1% walk rate over his career, and his hard-contact and strikeout numbers also dipped considerably from 2021 to 2022.  However, while the Tigers utilized Soto as their closer, the Phillies might use Soto only as one high-leverage option among many.  For now, manager Rob Thomson said his team will take a committee approach to the ninth inning, with newcomers Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Strahm vying for save chances alongside incumbents Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.

Though the relief corps stayed steady for much of the postseason run, Philadelphia’s bullpen has long been a source of inconsistency, and more reinforcement was needed this winter since David Robertson, Brad Hand, and the injured Corey Knebel were all headed into free agency.  (Sam Coonrod was also designated for assignment and then claimed off waivers by the Mets.)  Dombrowski’s response was to make a plethora of lower-level waiver claims and minor league signings of relief options, and that depth was augmented by the higher-profile additions of Soto, Kimbrel, and Strahm.

Investing $25MM of free agent dollars into Kimbrel and Strahm won’t break the bank for a free-spending team like Philadelphia.  However, both pitchers carry their share of question marks, since Kimbrel lost the closer’s job in Los Angeles last season and the Dodgers didn’t even include the veteran righty on their roster for the NLDS.  Strahm has been solid enough throughout his seven MLB seasons that the Phillies were comfortable in betting on his ceiling, yet there was some sense that the Phils overpaid for his services.  (As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Strahm contract ended up creating a bit of a stalemate amongst other free agent southpaw relievers, who felt they should be matching or exceeding Strahm in total salary or average annual value.)

Some free-agent vacancies also needed to be filled in the rotation, as Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Noah Syndergaard all hit the open market and signed with other clubs.  Prior to the Turner signing, there was some speculation that Philadelphia might target an available starter like Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon as a big free-agent splash, though the team ended up aiming to a slightly lower tier by showing interest in Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker.  With both pitchers reportedly receiving similar offers from the Phils, Walker took the deal, giving Philadelphia a solid No. 3 starter behind aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Walker bounced back from several injury-plagued seasons to become a valuable member of the Mets’ rotation, posting a 3.98 ERA over 316 1/3 innings with New York in 2021-22.  The $72MM contract exceeded projections of what Walker might land on the open market, yet that price reflected the elevated cost of pitching this winter, and again underlined how the Phillies are willing to pay top dollar if they like a player.  Since the Phils didn’t want to sign another player who rejected a qualifying offer, the fact that Walker and Taillon didn’t have QOs attached to their services also likely helped their markets.

Walker’s deal has already grown in importance given that the Phillies have run into some injury concerns in Spring Training.  Ranger Suarez is dealing with some forearm tightness that isn’t thought to be too serious, but creates fresh doubt over Suarez’s readiness for the Opening Day roster.  Depth starters Cristopher Sanchez and Nick Nelson have also been shut down with injuries, and in perhaps the most concerning development, star prospect Andrew Painter has been sidelined with a right UCL sprain.  It will be close to four weeks before the highly-touted young righty will start lightly throwing, so between that timeline and Painter’s lack of Triple-A experience, his anticipated MLB debut might now be held off until closer to midseason at best.

Having Nola, Wheeler, and Walker atop a rotation is a pretty nice stopgap against depth questions, and the Phillies have another interesting young arm in Bailey Falter now set for at least a fifth starter role.  Michael Plassmeyer probably leads the pack of potential starting candidates if the Phillies do need a replacement for Suarez, as it seems unlikely that the Phils would make a bold promotion of Mick Abel by jumping the top prospect from Double-A to the big leagues.

In bigger-picture rotation news, it seems possible that Nola and the Phillies might yet agree to a contract extension, as the two sides were exchanging figures last month.  Nola is scheduled for free agency after the 2023 season, so locking up the righty early would establish Nola, Walker, Suarez, and the younger Falter/Painter/Abel trio as the future of the Phiadelphia pitching staff (and give the team some leverage in deciding what to do when Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 campaign).  The Phillies have already been busy on the extension front in committing to Dominguez and Alvarado on multi-year deals, though naturally a Nola contract will be significantly more expensive.

For all of Philadelphia’s roster moves this offseason, an argument can be made that the club spent quite a bit just to fill holes and maintain their level of productivity from 2022.  As noted, this new version of the Phillies won’t be entirely complete until Harper is healthy and joining his old friend Turner in the lineup, so treading water in the competitive NL East is a justifiable strategy until the Phillies have a better sense of what they’ll be getting from Harper.  Plus, while no trade deadline acquisition would be as beneficial as a healthy Bryce Harper, it is safe to assume that Dombrowski is prepared to be again be aggressive at the deadline.

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