Alfonso Soriano’s Washington Projection
Some have suggested that RFK Stadium will kill Alfonso Soriano‘s fantasy value. Find out if that’s true by reading my Alfonso Soriano Washington Nationals 2006 Projection over at RotoAuthority.
Another website to check out today is Cub Town. Derek Smart writes intelligent posts about the Cubs with a healthy dose of stats mixed in. Highly recommended.
Nationals Snag Soriano, Will Remain At 2B
ESPN is reporting that Jim Bowden picked up Alfonso Soriano for the Nationals and sent Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge over to the Rangers.
The trade is a pretty fair one by my off-the-cuff analysis. I’ll probably have some player projections on RotoAuthority tomorrow, given that players are moving from an extreme pitchers’ park to a home run haven.
Once extra piece of information that we’ve managed to acquire contradicts a statement in the ESPN report. According to ESPN:
"With Jose Vidro already entrenched at second base, it’s believed that the Nationals would move Soriano to left field."
My source is saying that the Nationals’ front office is quietly concerned that Jose Vidro may be done for his career. Expect Soriano to see most of his time at second base in years to come.
Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close
Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred. Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.
Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton. I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield. Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ‘pen. The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005. One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.
The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal. Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief. MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9. As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea. But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run.
The Reds unloaded Sean Casey‘s salary on the Pirates. Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk. Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great. The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first.
Soriano To The Mets: Update
We have an update on the Alfonso Soriano to the Mets rumor posted earlier today. MLBTradeRumors.com has learned that the Milledge and Trachsel for Soriano deal was proposed prior to the acquisition of Carlos Delgado. Now that Delgado has been acquired, the Mets will turn their focus to Billy Wagner and Ramon Hernandez.
Soriano is considered nonessential to the Mets at this point, and any trade for him would not include Lastings Milledge. The Rangers have a stronger need for pitching and that will be the focus of any Soriano deal.
Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts