Twins Buzz: Mueller, Marte, Lowell
It’s well known that the Twins lineup at present is woefully devoid of power hitters. While noted Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman seems very receptive to a second baseman who can actually get on base, he acknowledges Luis Castillo‘s complete lack of punch.
So who’s on the radar? Well, you can cross Bill Mueller off the list. He’s planning on signing with either the Dodgers or Pirates. Mueller is a nice player, but he’s exactly what the Twins don’t need at third. Mueller is a fragile on-base machine. Sure, the team could use more players who take walks, but A)they don’t have the depth to back up Mueller if/when he gets hurt and B)he doesn’t produce the power they need. The average AL third baseman slugged .428 this season, and Mueller’s career SLG is .430. The Twins need above average power at the hot corner.
The Twins have long been interested in Mike Lowell, but he no longer has the power they’re looking for. There’s no use acquiring him on the off chance he recaptures his swing in Minnesota. The Twins already tried that with Bret Boone, and it was a waste of 53 at-bats. (Of course, "many insiders believe the three-time All-Star Lowell will bounce back." Curious that all of these insiders chose to remain anonymous.)
Hank Blalock could be had, and he’s still good for 20 HR without Ameriquest Field. Given that it could take a Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker to convince Jon Daniels to part with Blalock, the deal is better left alone. A lot of third basemen can hit .260 with 20 HR.
For example, Andy Marte would probably hit .260 with 20 HR (or better) if he was given 550 at-bats at third base for the Twins. As mentioned yesterday, the Braves might part with Marte for Jesse Crain, Kyle Lohse, and prospects. Crain was the author of a bizarre plumetting strikeout rate once he reached the Majors, but he still posted a 2.53 ERA in 106 career innings. In that Hardball Times article, Gleeman mentions how Crain’s success is likely not sustainable. Wonder if John Schuerholz learned his lesson with Dan Kolb? Lohse is the definition of average, and his ERA could top 5 next season.
While Marte is the perfect fit for Minnesota, it seems they’d have to pony up a lot more than Crain and Lohse. If they really want Marte, it will probably require Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker.
Braves’ Andy Marte Available?
Are you familiar with Atlanta Braves’ third baseman Andy Marte? Before the 2005 season, Baseball Prospectus rated him the #1 prospect in the game.
At age 21, Marte had an excellent 2/3 of a season for Triple A in ’05. Marte posted a .372 OBP and .506 SLG for the Richmond Braves. After Chipper Jones went down with an injury, Marte got a brief call-up to the Show on June 7th. He didn’t play regularly, and made several trips back and forth to the minors after that.
There had been whispers of Marte’s availability through trade, but it didn’t seem logical to me. Deal away a 21 year-old top prospect simply because of Chipper Jones? If there’s one thing Jones does not do particularly well, it’s play third base. I know he’s the well-respected veteran, but a move back to left field to clear the way for Marte seemed like a no-brainer.
On Friday, Will Carroll casually mentioned that Marte could be had for Julio Lugo:
"The Braves are said to be offering BP’s 2005 #1 prospect Andy Marte in return, which would be a nice deal both ways, considering that Marte has fallen as far as fourth on the organization’s depth chart at third base."
Now, I knew Marte was unpopular, but fourth on the depth chart? How did Pete Orr supplant Marte? But Carroll proved correct. Check out this excerpt about Marte from John Schuerholz’s interview Friday with Talking Chop:
Joe Hamrahi: Is there any possibility that Marte goes to camp at a different position or tries to learn a new position?
John Schuerholz: I don’t think so. I don’t think so. He’s too young…he’s a primary dominant third base candidate for a major league team in the very near future, whether it be for our team or someone else’s team. I mean this guy’s total package, offensively and defensively, his power potential, and excellent defensive skills make him a legitimate major league third baseman. Right now, though, there’s a guy named Chipper Jones ahead of him.
Italics added by me for emphasis. That’s not something you say about the future of your franchise. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that Marte is trade bait simply because he’s blocked by Chipper Jones. Now, the Braves have a history of trading away top-billed prospects and having them not pan out. But Marte looks like a can’t-miss future Eric Chavez (and then some).
With that in mind, which teams have a need at third base and could give the Braves the players they need?
Dodgers – L.A. has a stacked farm system, but the Braves are probably looking for a shortstop and/or a closer. While Cesar Izturis could be part of a future package, a deal probably won’t happen now for Marte.
Brewers – The Brew Crew could definitely give Marte an everyday opportunity at the hot corner. Problem is, the Braves don’t have a strong need for Lyle Overbay.
Twins – I’d love to see Terry Ryan get creative and make a deal for Marte. He’s got starting pitching and bullpen depth to deal from.
Devil Rays – Ultimately, they’re still in the best shape to acquire Marte. It’s sounding more and more like Baez and Lugo for Marte would appease both clubs.
Cameron For Nady Rumor Has Legs
A new Ken Rosenthal column was just posted over at Fox Sports. Some interesting nuggets in there, including a few that confirm rumors we reported on earlier.
The rumored Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady swap we mentioned on Sunday may have legs. Rosenthal adds that the Mets could spin Nady into a Manny Ramirez package if they don’t want to platoon him with Mike Jacobs. Nady could make sense for the Red Sox, a team with question marks at third and second base.
Cameron could also end up in Baltimore or Arizona according to Rosenthal.
The column mentions some interest coming from the Braves on Trevor Hoffman. I don’t buy this matchup, considering Hoffman’s outlandish demands. The Braves don’t seem like the types to give three years or $27MM to a closer.
Rosenthal also adds some info to the Julio Lugo to the Braves rumor. We confirmed before that the Braves would need more than Lugo to part with Andy Marte. Rosenthal suggests Johnny Estrada and another prospect as a more reasonable package going to the D-Rays.
Thanks to Brian B.
Julio Lugo To The Braves
Today the Tampa Tribune’s Scott Carter again brought up the idea of the Rays trading Julio Lugo. This time, he named names:
"While it remains too early to determine whether any of those players will be traded, Atlanta’s interest in Lugo appears real. Atlanta catcher Johnny Estrada, third baseman Andy Marte and pitcher John Thomson, who had his $4.75 million option for next season picked up recently, are all believed to be available. Meanwhile, Baez and Huff continue to surface in trade rumors with the Mets and Red Sox that erupted at last year’s trade deadline."
RotoAuthority has already busted out 2006 projections for Lugo, so we won’t go into detail about that here. But is the availability of Andy Marte legitimate? Marte was ranked the #1 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball Prospectus in 2005. I asked Scott Carter, the perpetrator of the rumor, to elaborate. He told me:
"I don’t think you would see any kind of trade straight-up for those two. I’m sure for Braves to depart with Marte, they would want Lugo and possibly Gathright/Gomes or more."
If I’m the Rays, I’m speed-dialing Schuerholz to offer Gathright and Lugo for Marte. Mark my words, the Devil Rays will be a contender by 2007.