Trade Rumor Roundup: 4 Days Left
What’s cooking this morning in the world of MLB trade rumors?
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to all sorts of baseball sources; here’s his latest Rumor Mill. New developments: the Mets could pursue various Rockie pitchers, and the Yanks crave John Smoltz.
My Mets guy indicates that the Wilson Betemit for Scott Linebrink deal that’s been bandied about could go down at the last minute. What? He hears things outside of the Mets.
SportsBlah sorts through the Alfonso Soriano rumors.
Jimmy Gobble was scratched from his start last night. Let the rampant rumormongering begin. Actually, KC just switched him with Runelvys Hernandez to break up the southpaws in the rotation.
As the days go by, Doug Melvin sounds more and more like he’ll trade Carlos Lee.
RotoAuthority gives the fantasy take on Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Broussard, Scott Kazmir, and many more recent developments.
All the newspapers are reporting that the Yankees have deemed Scott Proctor "untouchable." I know good relief help is hard to find, but should a 29 year-old middling reliever at the peak of his value really be deemed untouchable? Especially the way Joe Torre is abusing him.
Hadn’t heard of the Mets’ interest in Juan Cruz and Jose Valverde until Dan Graziano mentioned it this morning. Could be a great buy low situation for a real live arm in Valverde. Cruz I think could be tough to pry away.
There was just no reason to try to start Roger Clemens trade speculation. The Astros, five games back in the wildcard, have invested way too much to suddenly wave the white flag.
Bidding war for…Cory Lidle? Looks like Toronto has the lead so far; Lidle starts tonight.
Buster Olney mentioned today in his blog that the White Sox are willing to discuss trades for Freddy Garcia. He also indicates that the Red Sox are working on a large, creative deal with more than two teams.
Add the Mariners and Cardinals to the Yankees for Shawn Green’s interested parties. He can veto a deal to any of these three teams and is happy in Arizona.
Carlos Lee: Best Available Slugger?
Carlos Lee is still The Man, one of the biggest names likely to switch teams this season. This could be a massive development for AL-only fantasy players, but that’s a post for a different blog. What we’re trying to figure out here is where Mr. Lee might end up.
Back in early February, this topic was the talk of the town. The Carlos Lee trade thread got 100 comments (of course, no log in was required back then.) That thread is not to be confused with my ever popular April Fool’s joke about Lee.
I listed four reasons the Brewers are likely to deal Lee: his salary and impending free agency, the savvy of Doug Melvin, the readiness of Corey Hart, and Lee’s overrated RBI totals. This year, Lee is again looking to drive in over 110 runs with a mediocre OBP. However, he’s already got 19 home runs so he could top his career high of 32. I don’t want to get too hung up on OBP – .340 isn’t Soriano territory and 40 home runs is 40 home runs. Lee has tons of valuable for any contender.
Here is an updated list of the possible suitors. Remember, Lee pretty much needs to play left field or DH.
Angels – If the Halos are looking for a more reasonable power source than Manny, Lee makes some sense. They’ve got the top flight prospects to do it, and Lee would go a long way towards fixing the third worst slugging percentage in the league.
Yankees – Two big names are now residing on the DL, so everyone expects the Yankees to make some kind of move. Even if Melky Cabrera continues to exceed expectations, the Yanks would probably feel better adding a true slugger. The prime need continues to be pitching, but Cashman/Steinbrenner may choose to just build upon the team’s strength and try to outslug opponents. I can’t see how a deal gets made without Philip Hughes and one of the team’s younger highly rated prospects. Even then, it seems like the Brewers could find a better deal.
Braves – I had the Braves on here last time, mentioning their trades for J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff as precedent. Atlanta is six games back in third place, but hitting for power hasn’t been an issue with Brian McCann, Andruw Jones, Adam LaRoche, and others. More likely the team deals to try to improve its 12th ranked 4.58 team ERA in both the rotation and the ‘pen.
Cardinals – You’ve still got that same division thing, so it seems less than likely. You have to think Anthony Reyes is starting in 2006 for a team other than the Cardinals. Looking further into my crystal ball, I can see that Reyes, a Devil Ray, will come highly touted by RotoAuthority for 2007 and will promptly pull a Ryan Madson.
Tigers – Yes, the Tigers are looking for a left-handed hitter and Lee does not fit that profile. But if Detroit can keep the Thames/Monroe platoon in left and use Lee at DH, that would be a formidable addition. The Tigers have all sorts of young arms ripe for the tradin’.
Dodgers – Looks like the Dodgers are going the rookie route, with Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Joel Guzman seeing time in left field. This is not a team lacking options in the outfield. Problem is, most of those options are rookies or injury-prone. The Dodgers are just a game back right now.
Those are the main candidates in my eyes. But here’s a more basic way to look at it. What does Carlos Lee provide? Slugging. Who needs slugging and is at least pretending to contend? Padres, Cubs, Angels, Astros, Mariners, A’s.
In the end, I like the Cards and Halos in this race if Doug Melvin decides to sell.
Carlos Lee To Cubs Deal Imminent
MLBTradeRumors has learned of a blockbuster deal that is expected to go down by the end of the day. Talks between Jim Hendry and Doug Melvin are in advanced stages of a rare interdivision trade.
The Cubs will send Matt Murton, Rich Hill, and Angel Guzman to the Brewers for slugger Carlos Lee. Lee will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and the Cubs intend to lock him up after finishing the Derrek Lee deal. According to my source, the Brewers view Lee’s impending free agency as a distraction and desperately want to shed his $8.5MM salary.
Lee is expected to bat fourth between the other Lee, Derek, and Aramis Ramirez.
What do you think? Did the Cubs overpay to get the other Lee?
Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities
There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.
1. He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.
2. Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).
3. The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006. Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506. Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.
4. Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs. According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.
The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee. Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name. Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.
Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.
Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF. If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.
White Sox – I don’t see it. They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth. I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.
Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny. Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.
Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency. J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind. They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.
Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely. Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.
Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.
My ranking of the most likely suitors: Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs. I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.