Matsuzaka Derby Down To 5?
RotoWire reports that the serious suitors for Daisuke Matsuzaka appear to be just the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Rangers. This comes after reports of many teams pulling out of the bidding – the Orioles, Dodgers, Angels, and Giants.
Smart money appears to be on New York, or maybe that’s just where all the hype comes from. Hard to tell. Mike Plugh finds an interesting note in a Japanese newspaper: the Yankees may bid less than $20MM. As Plugh says, that’s a surefire way to make the pitcher a Met.
I think the Cubs and Rangers might pursue Kei Igawa as Plan B, but who’s to say that half the league doesn’t get in on the southpaw.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Officially Posted
Bids are due Wednesday for the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Seibu and hopefully the public will know the winning team on November 14th.
While I have you I want to point you to a couple of websites about Mr. Matsuzaka.
The first one is by Jeff Sackmann for The Hardball Times. He formulates a rough translation of Matsuzaka’s performance and attempts to put a dollar value on him as well.
And if you want dedication? Try The Matsuzaka Watch. The author is opinionated, knowledgable, and up-to-date on all things Matsuzaka.
Mariners Backing Off On Matsuzaka?
Larry Stone has an excellent article for the Seattle Times outlining the process for Daisuke Matsuzaka. He mentions two baseball sources who indicated that the Mariners will make just a token bid for the coveted hurler. To me this info only cements the Yankees’ status as the frontrunner.
Instead, Stone mentions that Bill Bavasi might focus his money to acquire Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.
It’s expected that Seibu will post Matsuzaka in the first or second week of November. After that teams will have four days to submit bids. MLB will notify Seibu of the winning bid amount but not the team. If the bid is accepted, a contract must be reached within 30 days.
Matsuzaka Bid To Top $30MM?
We had heard a lot of $20MMish estimates for the winning bid to negotiate with Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka.
However, Joel Sherman’s article yesterday quotes an NL GM who sets the over-under at $33MM. Bob Bavasi mentioned $28MM as the highest figure he had heard when I talked to him earlier this month. With more than ten teams looking to make competitive bids, $30MM+ is becoming more of a reality.
Sherman speculates that Scott Boras could ask for five years and $75MM on top of that posting fee. Now we’re talking a total of $21MM a season for the guy.
The more you think about it, 5/75 is not an unreasonable amount for Boras to demand. Boras has shown in the past with top draft picks that he is able to gain leverage in a situation where his client seemingly has none. Why shouldn’t Matsuzaka be paid like Roy Oswalt? Matsuzaka is a full three years younger.
These kinds of demands are typically only met by the Yankees. In A-Rod, Jeter, and Giambi, the Yanks have three $20MM players for 2007. Randy Johnson gets $16MM and Bobby Abreu $15MM.
My money is officially placed on the Yankees getting Matsuzaka. Other teams just won’t mess with that kind of payout and risk.
Rosenthal On Matsuzaka, Igawa, Edmonds
Here’s a link to Ken Rosenthal’s latest.
Rosenthal confirms Yahoo Japan’s earlier story, which indicated that the Braves had interest in Japanese southpaw Kei Igawa. A Yahoo story had mentioned that Igawa’s posting would be contingent on Hanshin signing free agent Hiroki Kuroda, but Rosenthal states as fact that Igawa will be posted. In addition to Atlanta, we know that the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, and Tigers have special interest in Igawa.
Rosenthal also officially adds the Tigers to the list of teams interested in Daisuke Matsuzaka. While we know every team has scouted him, the Cubs, Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, Mariners, and Padres have been mentionally specifically in print. Yes, I just named half of baseball.
Finally, Rosenthal indicates that Jim Edmonds‘s "postseason revivial" will make it more likely that the Cards exercise his $10MM option. Walt Jocketty isn’t that dumb, is he? That his decision could hinge on 15-17 postseason games is ludicrous.
Cubs To Enter Matsuzaka Bidding
Being a Cubs fan is all about hope. Jim Hendry’s assertion yesterday that the team will enter the bidding for Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka should keep the positive vibes going around the team.
It’s important to note, though, that every team has some level of interest in Matsuzaka and nearly every team will place a bid. There’s no danger in bidding too low – only upside. Still, the thought of Matsuzaka behind Carlos Zambrano makes Cubs fans salivate. Suddenly the Cubs would have the makings of a rotation – Rich Hill in the third slot, a mid-level free agent as #4, and Mark Prior et al. filling out the fifth spot. I’m letting my imagination run wild though – a more likely scenario is that Matsuzaka is a million bucks beyond the team’s budget so Hendry signs Gil Meche to a four-year deal with an out clause in case he pitches well.
With or without Matsuzaka, that #4 starter could come from Japan. Jim Hendry mentioned "two or three pitchers over there we feel can start here," one of which could be Kei Igawa.
The Cubs join the Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, Mariners, and Padres as the ten most interested clubs. Who else thinks the winning bid tops $30MM?
Interview: Bob Bavasi of JapanBall.com
Recently Bob Bavasi, owner of the fine website JapanBall.com, was kind enough to answer some questions for MLBTradeRumors.com. Bob tells me that he recently got back from his JapanBall.com baseball tour, where he encountered a variety of scouts, writers, and team personnel. His answers are in bold.
What kind of posting fee do you see for Matsuzaka? Ichiro cost $13MM; could Matsuzaka require $20MM?
Still one year away from Japanese free agency, RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, 26, of the Seibu Lions (just outside of Tokyo), is considered the hottest prospect by the MLB scouts. The Lions will allow Matsuzaka to post, a process wherein MLB teams give the Lions sealed bids, the highest bidder getting negotiating rights to the pitcher…the Lions getting a bundle of dough.
What could he go for? I’ve heard numbers from $17 to $28 million for the posting fee to the Lions. Then the MLB club must, of course, sign the player.
It seems like as many as ten teams could be after him. What kind of contract would you expect him to sign once an MLB team has his rights?
His agent is Scott Boras, and none of his players have been known to sign on the cheap. But certainly the club will be looking for a long contract what with the money they’ll have just spent to simply acquire the rights to sign Matsuzaka. I’ve heard numbers as high as $70 million for the contract, if you can believe that.
So far, I’ve seen reports on the following teams interested in Matsuzaka: Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners. Based on Japanese media have any other MLB teams scouted him?
All the clubs have scouted him, but it really comes down to the wherewithal to place the big bet. Also, with regard to your list, I wouldn’t count San Diego out.
Do you expect any other players to be posted this winter?
Yakult Swallows (Tokyo) third baseman Akinori Iwamura has been talked about as a candidate to be posted this winter as are RHP Kaz Saito of the Softbank Hawks (Fukuoka) and LHP Kei Igawa with the Hanshin Tigers (Osaka).
Which Japanese free agents could end up on Major League rosters next spring?
RHP Hiroki Kuroda of the Carp will be a free agent, not subject to posting, and you hear his name bandied about in this regard.
If you were building a team, which Japanese player would you choose with the #1 pick?
I like the pitcher we started this conversation about, but, if you are giving me a free pick, I might mention that I chatted with Wayne Graczyk, baseball columnist for The Japan Times and editor of the Japan Baseball Media Guide, who said that the consensus of the scouts he’d visited with who’d recently come through Japan said that Kosuke Fukudome, outfielder for the Chunichi Dragons was the best all-around Japanese player.
Could you assess the likelihood of Kei Igawa being posted? I have read that the team’s owner does not plan on posting him.
While he’s been discussed I’m not certain if he’ll be posted. If you’re a Japanese baseball team owner, there is generally no point is posting a player until he’s very close to free agency. Igawa has signed with the Hanshin Tigers through the 2008 season, so I tend to think they’d keep him for one more year before doing the posting.
Do you have any insight as to how the Japanese perceive the posting system?
For the teams it’s terrific. You can get something for your player rather
than a whole bunch of nothing when he becomes a free agent.
Do fans enjoy it when players leave to play MLB?
The posting process lends some excitement for fans who always wrestle with being disappointed in losing the player, but being happy that another Japanese can compete in MLB.
We do our JapanBall.com Baseball Experience Tour each September. The year Ichiro signed with Seattle I saw Mariners logos and Ichiro photos just as soon as I left the airplane upon landing in Tokyo. He was everywhere. On billboards, on giant TV screens on the sides of buildings, in subway car advertisements.
Japan baseball attendance started to wane as folks began watching MLB games on TV. Now things are a little more settled down.
Japanese baseball has reacted by making their ballparks much more fan-friendly and teams are starting to play more aggressive, exciting baseball. They’ve just imported their fourth American field manager to help in that regard. The Central League will adopt a playoff formula similar to that which is a hit in the Pacific League. And fans are beginning to respond at the turnstiles.
Thanks for your time, Bob!
Daisuke Matsuzaka To Be Posted By Seibu
It’s official: the Seibu Lions will post ace starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. That means a Major League team will bid on the exclusive rights to negotiate a contract with him.
Matsuzaka figures to beat out even Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt as the best free agent pitcher available. At least eight teams have already scouted him Matsuzaka.
Based on this report (scroll down), the Angels will also be players for Matsuzaka.
Royals Join Matsuzaka Chase
An unlikely eighth team has expressed interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka: the Royals. KC joins the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners as a suitor.
While it’s unlikely that the Royals would pony up more than $10MM annually for one player, it would bring some excitement to the ’07 team. It would also be better than the way they spent free agent money in 2006: $5MM for Reggie Sanders, $4MM for Scott Elarton, $4MM for Mark Grudzielanek, $1.85MM for Doug Mientkiewicz, $1.7MM for Elmer Dessens, and $1.5MM for Tony Graffanino. Granted that was a different GM, but the Royals spent $18MM on six players that A)wouldn’t help them win when the team becomes competitive and B)won’t put butts in the seats.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.