Stark’s Latest
Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip. I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime. California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.
Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.
- Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada‘s power will ever return. Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada. Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before. Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09. That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
- Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever. A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care. I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
- Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent." I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center. Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons. Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs. This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.
Florida Teams Talking Trade?
Here’s a rumor I missed from Jayson Stark’s column on Friday. Stark notes:
"Despite talk of the Marlins and Devil Rays reviving their long-rumored deal involving Rocco Baldelli, Florida actually appears to be more focused on the younger (and cheaper) B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes as center field possibilities."
That makes sense, but what would Florida give up at this point? Scott Olsen has to be off-limits. Josh Johnson is hurting. Anibal Sanchez‘s shoulder inflammation has died down, but he’s still a risk. Ricky Nolasco might be reasonable, though it would chip away at the team’s strength. Nolasco for Dukes seems fair. Nolasco has maybe a 20% chance at becoming a star, while Dukes hovers around 40-50% (based on BP’s Stars and Scrubs charts). Dukes’s off the field stuff would even out the trade.
Meanwhile, Peter Gammons wrote on February 28th:
"[The Marlins] are not trading any of their good young pitchers to fill center field. They know every good team has flaws, and it’s a lot more difficult to get by with a pitching hole than with a center fielder like Eric Reed who, at worst, runs down balls."
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus mentions another lower-cost possibility for Florida – Cory Sullivan of Colorado.
Elijah Dukes In Trouble Again
Oh, Elijah. This time, it’s marijuana possession. At least, that’s the charge.
Elijah Dukes is an interesting player – a world of talent, a complete wild card in terms of behavior. PECOTA sees him hitting .283/.349/.454 as a 23 year-old this year. I think the D-Rays should just grin and bear it rather than trade him, as dealing now would be selling low.
Blue Jays Targeting Dukes?
UPDATE: A reliable source close to the Jays tells me this one is "nonsense." Sorry to disappoint!
According to our good friends at D-Rays Bay, the Blue Jays and Devil Rays are talking about an Elijah Dukes trade. The proposed deal is pitchers Shaun Marcum and Josh Sowers for Dukes.
Marcum, 25, had a strong showing in Triple A last year as well as an acceptable rookie effort with the Jays. Sowers, Jeremy’s brother, is still in the lower minors.
Not sure where Dukes would fit into Toronto’s 2007 plans, as Adam Lind is already looking for a full-time role on the team.
The radio report referenced was from Ronnie Lane of MLB Home Plate on XM Radio.
Pirates Targeting Elijah Dukes?
Bucco Blog reports that the Pirates and Devil Rays are talking, and the Bucs may be targeting 22 year-old first baseman/outfielder Elijah Dukes. Jake’s informal poll of writers and scouts seemed to indicate that such an acquisition would require either Tom Gorzelanny or Mike Gonzalez. To me, Gorzelanny would make the most sense. As you probably know, Dukes has a world of talent but some makeup issues.
Gorzelanny had a scare last year with August elbow stiffness, though he came back to make three starts after that. For 2007, the 24 year-old southpaw is projected at a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 153 innings by ZiPS and a 4.27 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 168 innings by RotoAuthority.