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Assessing The Texas Rotation

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The Rangers’ starting rotation currently consists of Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton, Vicente Padilla, Kameron Loe, and Juan Dominguez.  Guys like C.J. Wilson, John Wasdin, and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey could enter the picture as well.

The front three, while health risks, are fairly solid.  I know the Rangers are enamored of Loe following his 3.42 ERA in 92 innings last year.  But the lack of Ks and abnormally low accompanying hit rate spell darker days ahead.  Still, if Loe can keep his ERA in the low 4s the Rangers would be ecstatic.  So he’s not a problem.

Dominguez just needs to keep his ERA under 5 to maintain the fifth starter spot.  I think he’s capable of that.  Still, if he or Loe flames out or one of the front three gets injured, the Rangers would hate to turn to Wilson, Wasdin, or Dickey again.  I think it’s highly likely that they’ll need to get a lot of starts out of someone not in the current front five.

The safe bet: acquire another veteran starter and use Dominguez in a swing role.  The Rangers have several options here that could be helpful.

According to this morning’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Texas is interested in reacquiring John Thomson.  Thomson is a control pitcher who’s been about league average in preventing the longball.  He ate 217 innings for the Rangers in 2003 while posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  The 32 year-old makes $4.75MM and is in his contract year.  The Braves are considering moving him and putting Kyle Davies into the rotation.  In 2005, Thomson missed several months after tearing a tendon in his middle finger.

Then there’s Jason Marquis, also an impending free agent.  He can probably provide 200 innings of a 4.50 ERA, which means a lot in Texas.  Swapping Kevin Mench for Marquis could make some sense.

Other than those two, there’s the pie-in-the-sky idea of luring Roger Clemens.  Seems quite unlikely but would obviously be ideal.  Jose Contreras, Erik Bedard, Matt Clement, and Bronson Arroyo are on the market for the right price.  And though it’s a slim chance, if there’s one team for which Kerry Wood might waive his no-trade clause in July, it’s probably the Rangers.          

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

Jocketty Faces Burnett Aftermath

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A.J. Burnett slipped out of the Cardinals’ grasp because of The Fifth Year, and Lboros over at Viva El Birdos thinks the team was being cheap.  He mentions their new stadium, radio and TV deal revenue, and two postseasons in a row.  Given that A.J. Burnett was the only free agent pitcher out there who could be a difference-maker, what are Cards fans to do?

Well, they shouldn’t count Walt Jocketty out just yet.  While perhaps not the best trade in his history, Jocketty did make a move on one of last Javieyear’s hot commodities, Mark Mulder.  He’s fully capable of doing the same thing for Javier Vazquez.  The Indians appear to be the front-runner for Vazquez’s services, but the Cards might be able to pull something off.

After a perusal of the Cardinals’ Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, only Anthony Reyes is Major-League ready among a thin crop.  It seems that Reyes, and only Reyes, could bring Vazquez, or any other name starting pitcher, to St. Louis.  It wouldn’t be the first time Jocketty dealt a near-ready righthanded starter for a proven veteran version.  However, should the Snakes insist on a position player (they wanted Coco Crisp), Vazquez won’t be joining the Cardinals.  If Jocketty can’t come up with his #2 starter, expect Jason Marquis to remain with the club.

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