NL Notes: Miller, Cubs, Hellickson, Crawford, Ethier
Andrew Miller sits atop the Cubs‘ wish list this summer, according to Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com. The Yankees southpaw is humming along with a 1.47 ERA and ridiculous 13.2 K/BB ratio, so the price won’t be low — if he can be had at all. While teammate Dellin Betances would also hold interest, Heyman says that Chicago doesn’t believe there’s any chance he’d be available. The Cubbies do not have interest in a reunion with Braves righty Arodys Vizcaino, who has already twice changed hands between the organizations.
- In terms of Cubs trade chips, there’s been plenty of speculation about Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez. But Heyman says that neither is likely to go anywhere. Indeed, we heard recently that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein isn’t inclined at all to part with the injured Schwarber, and it’s tough to imagine the organization removing a useful Baez from its current mix. One interesting player who could be moved, per Heyman, is third base prospect Jeimer Candelario.
- Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson looks like the club’s most obvious trade piece: he’ll be a free agent at year’s end and has been both solid and durable, which is why he sits among the top 20 trade candidates in baseball on MLBTR’s most recent list. But Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com wonders whether there’s a scenario where Philadelphia holds onto the veteran starter. A qualifying offer could make sense, he posits, since that could net the Phils a draft pick that could be more valuable (particularly given the likelihood of a big draft pool) than any prospect return. And if Hellickson were to take it, that wouldn’t be a terrible result for an organization that could use the stability in the rotation both now and in 2017. GM Matt Klentak hinted recently that his team may not “be super active” at the deadline.
- The Phillies could also push toward contention as soon as next year, though that still seems optimistic. A major factor in that timeline is young shortstop J.P. Crawford, who is currently playing at Triple-A. He was recently named the top prospect in all of baseball in a mid-season ranking update from Baseball Prospectus.
- The Dodgers are said to be looking at outfielders, but may have an internal option on hand before long. Manager Dave Roberts says that Andre Ethier could make his way back to the bigs by early August, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The veteran has missed the entire season with a broken leg, but had been a highly productive player in 2015.
East Notes: Red Sox Outfield, Phillies, Syndergaard, Teheran
Red Sox outfielder Chris Young hit the DL with a hamstring injury, as Chris Mason of the Boston Herald writes. He joins Brock Holt and Blake Swihart as unavailable left field options for Boston, which already had ample justification to pursue an upgrade at the position. There’s some optimism for both of those players, at least, as Holt has begun a rehab assignment and Swihart is out of his walking boot.
Here’s more from the eastern divisions:
- The Red Sox are stretched thin in left even as Rusney Castillo looks less and less like a viable major leaguer. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com takes an interesting look at the process that led the team to sign him to a contract that now seems like an expensive miss.
- Phillies GM Matt Klentak says that the “feeling out process” has begun for summer trade activity, as Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com reports. Still, he suggests that it’s largely been quiet for Philly thus far. Klentak also discussed the progress of top prospect J.P. Crawford, explaining that some early struggles at Triple-A are just part of the maturation process and noting that he has continued to exhibit a mastery of the strike zone.
- The Mets appear to believe that Noah Syndergaard‘s valuable right elbow isn’t at risk despite a recent scare, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. An MRI showed only inflammation, and manager Terry Collins noted that Syndergaard has dealth with minor flare-ups at times in the past without any real structural issue arising. He’s set to make his next scheduled start.
- Over at Fangraphs, Eno Sarris explores an important question for the Braves as well as potential suitors for righty Julio Teheran: just how good is he? He suggests that Teheran may be able to continue to outperform ERA estimators somewhat, though perhaps some movement toward those marks is to be expected. In the end, Sarris calls him “a good pitcher on a great contract,” which seems like a fair appraisal.
Quick Hits: International Bonuses, Prospects, Analytics, PEDs
It goes without saying that the international market offers an increasingly important route for organizations to acquire fresh talent. With bonus rules overlaying an already complicated array of interests, and loads of new players entering the picture from Cuba, it’s a situation that is ripe for gamesmanship, as Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. Teams have numerous avenues for shifting bonuses between amateur players, many of whom are largely controlled by handlers who have varied and obscure arrangements with multiple youngsters. That situation creates a complex and sub-optimal set of incentives, per Badler, with “package” arrangements often utilized to get around limitations on spending on a single player. The post qualifies as essential reading in this area of the transactional game.
Here are a few more notable pieces worth a look:
- Badler also mines the minor league ranks for prospects who have set themselves up for quick promotions. Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez has looked like a strong international investment and is in line to move up from the low A level; highly-touted Red Sox youngsters Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada seem ready for Double-A; and the Phillies have several players clamoring for a step up the ladder, including top prospect J.P. Crawford.
- Baseball analytics departments have expanded greatly in recent years, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur examine at FiveThirtyEight.com. By their tabulations, the number of quantitative-oriented, full-time employees of major league teams has risen from 44 in 2009 all the way to 156 at present. Clubs that moved quickly to build out their teams of analysts have benefited greatly for a relatively meager investment, the study finds. As big-market clubs have increasingly followed their lower-budget competitors, there has been increasing competition for established and entry-level staffers. Interestingly, though, that hasn’t resulted in a reduction in scouting departments; Lindbergh and Arthur write that any downsizing at the professional level “has been more than offset by increased amateur and international coverage.” Unfortunately, women continue to be drastically underrepresented in the analytics and scouting ranks. You’ll certainly want to give this fascinating piece a full read to appreciate it.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today looks at the current state of PEDs in baseball, asking whether players who test positive are merely those who choose the wrong people to set their drug regimens. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also recently addressed the subject, with several prominent players telling him that the use of illicit substances remains a major problem in the game. Improving the current league efforts to stamp out the problem may be less a matter of tweaking the already-significant penalties than it is one of somehow getting ahead of those who are figuring ways around testing. “If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tells Rosenthal. “I don’t think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught.”
- As the Phillies‘ new front office reshapes the organization’s approach to analytics, it is seeking to manage the volume of information in a way that optimizes its function, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “That information can be overwhelming,” says GM Matt Klentak. “There is so much information. The key for our front office and coaching staff and, ultimately, our players is that we’re isolating the information that helps players and coaches in the moment without locking them up.”
NL East Notes: Gordon, Hech, Stanton, Nats, Phils, Braves
The Marlins‘ top two extension priorities over the offseason are middle infielders Dee Gordon and Adeiny Hechavarria, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports. It remains to be seen whether Miami will be able to gain traction in talks with the pair, which it already controls through the 2018 campaign. But, per Frisaro, the club is more concerned with striking new deals with Gordon and/or Hechavarria than it is with acquiring any particular player on the open market. A deal with Jose Fernandez still seems unlikely, he writes, and the same holds true of Marcell Ozuna.
More from Miami and the rest of the NL East:
- While it remains unclear whether Fernandez will make it back to the Marlins this year, slugger Giancarlo Stanton appears to be on track to return to action at some point, as the Associated Press reports (via ESPN.com). Stanton began hitting yesterday, though his precise timetable remains unclear. The club will surely be cautious given its place in the standings and massive commitment to the 25-year-old.
- Nationals ownership is “unhappy” with the team’s performance this year, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. It would be hard to imagine any other general reaction to a club that suddenly finds itself below the .500 mark despite a big payroll and high expectations, of course, and it’s not at all clear whether that sentiment will manifest itself in any modification in the decisionmaking structure. Rosenthal goes on to discuss the team’s front office situation, but it all seems to boil down to one key point: change is unlikely unless the Lerner family no longer wishes to place its trust in GM and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo. (For what it’s worth, from my perspective, it seems difficult to blame him for the sudden fall-off of numerous key contributors, and the organization appears well-prepared for a coming offseason that will feature roster turnover at multiple key positions.)
- The insurance policy on Matt Harrison‘s contract — which was acquired by the Phillies in the Cole Hamels deal — could still pay out to Philadelphia, Rosenthal suggests, though there is plenty of uncertainty. As he notes, too, the Phils would need to use at least some of any savings to fill in innings that might otherwise be occupied by the veteran lefty.
- The future for the Phillies, of course, will depend less on freeing some extra cash than it will on the development of the team’s best young players. Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News profiles one if the organization’s most important assets: 20-year-old shortstop J.P. Crawford.
- Braves reliever Chris Withrow, who was acquired along with Juan Uribe earlier this year, is progressing but likely won’t pitch this year, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Withrow is still working back from Tommy John and back surgeries. Meanwhile, another Atlanta upside grab — Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler — is on track to take the bump in fall or winter league action, O’Brien adds on Twitter. Once activated from the DL, Winkler will need to stick on the active roster next year for the club to retain his rights.
Prospect Rumor Roundup: Early Draft Returns
The 2013 amateur draft is now fully in the rearview mirror and a new wave of talent has filtered into the professional ranks. Some of the '13 draftees have been riding the buses for more than a month now, while others have only recently pulled on their spikes. Below is a look at first round picks who are off to impressive starts with their new organizations. Standard warnings about reading too much into small sample sizes apply.
Mark Appel, RHP, Astros (1st overall): The top selection in the 2013 draft has made four starts in the minors and has already earned a promotion, moving from the New York Penn League to the Midwest League. Despite a bit of a layoff between the college season and his first pro appearance, the Stanford alum has displayed good control with just one walk in 13 innings while striking out 13 batters. Curt Rallo, writing for MiLB.com, recently caught up with Appel and spoke to him about the adjustments he's making as a professional baseball player.
Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins (4th): The highest drafted prep product, 18-year-old Kohl has acclimatized well to his new life as a pro ball player. Stewart, a Texas native, features a 1.80 ERA with nine strikeouts in 10 innings of work over four appearances (two starts).
Clint Frazier, OF, Indians (5th): The 18-year-old Frazier is stinging the ball through his first 18 pro games. He's hitting more than .300 with nine extra base hits. On the down side, he's whiffed 24 times, including nine strikeouts in his last four games. Clearly, he has some further adjustments to make if he hopes to see continued success on the diamond.
Hunter Dozier, SS, Royals (8th): The Royals' first pick received a lot of attention for being an overdraft so the club could later afford pitcher Sean Manaea, who slipped out of first round consideration due to injury concerns. Dozier, though, is making the decision to pick him eighth overall look inspired. He has an .856 OPS and 20 of his 37 hits have gone for extra bases during his time in the Pioneer League. Dozier has also walked more than he's struck out (19-16). His first professional baseball club, the Idaho Falls Chukars, recently published an audio Q&A with the first rounder.
D.J. Peterson, 3B, Mariners (12th): Peterson was promoted from the Northwest League to the Midwest League on Tuesday and he will leave behind some impressive numbers. The third baseman popped six home runs and posted a .915 OPS in 29 games. He also showed solid contact skills with a strikeout rate of just under 15%, which is impressive given his power output.
Reese McGuire, C, Pirates (14th): The Pirates had two first round selections in 2013 and McGuire has gotten off to a quicker start than his new teammate Austin Meadows. The young catcher is hitting more than .400 with a 1.012 OPS through his first 15 games. He's also impressing behind the plate by catching 50% of base runners attempting to steal. John Lembo of the Bradenton Herald spoke to both McGuire and Meadows about their thoughts of growing up in the Pirates organization.
J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies (16th): Philadelphia has been snakebitten over the past few years when it comes to their first round draft picks, and the organization is clearly hoping for bigger and better things from Crawford. He's off to a good start in Rookie ball where he's compiled 25 hits and seven walks in 18 games, good for a .427 on-base percentage. By getting on base at such a good clip, it should allow him to pile up some steals thanks to his above-average speed.
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox (18th): Anderson is the third shortstop on this list who's off to a quick start to his career. Playing in low-A ball, he's getting on base at a solid clip (.371 OBP) while nabbing 12 bases in 15 attempts through the first 32 games of his pro career. One red flag, though, is his strikeout rate of 25%, especially given that power is not a big part of his game right now; an improvement in his contact rate would likely help him improve his on-base percentage even further. Anderson could move quickly through the Sox system, which could help to explain why the club may be willing to part with incumbent shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Michael Teague of MiLB.com spoke to the young prospect shortly after he was named the top junior college athlete in the country for 2013.
Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Tigers (20th): Crawford has opened his pro career in the New York Penn League and he's expected to be one of the first college-groomed draft picks to reach the Major League level. Through six appearances, he's looking good with a 2.03 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings of work. He was downright unhittable in three of those appearances (totaling six innings). Lynn Henning of the Detroit News spoke to Crawford's manager in Connecticut about the recent draft pick's positive start to his career.
Billy McKinney, OF, Athletics (24th): After batting just .242 with a .558 OPS in June, McKinney has heated up in July and currently has a .367 average and .861 OPS. The left-handed-hitting Texas native has improved his game in part by making more contact and lowering his strikeout rate. He's also holding his own against southpaws, which is impressive to see from such a young hitter.