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Noah Syndergaard

West Notes: Syndergaard, White, Davis

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Noah Syndergaard signed a one-year, $13MM free agent deal with the Dodgers this winter, and the right-hander tells the New York Post’s Jon Heyman that “there might have been more money on the table with another team.”  But, Los Angeles held particular appeal for Syndergaard, as “I wanted to give myself the best chance to get back to the World Series and win it all.  And I wanted the best coaching and direction that the sport has to offer and I’m fully convinced that that is with the Dodgers.”  There is certainly a solid track record of pitchers being revived after joining the Dodgers, and Syndergaard might have a lot in particular to offer, given his past ace status and the fact that he is now fully healthy.

Tommy John surgery and some related setbacks cost Syndergaard all but two innings of the 2020-21 seasons.  While he had a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 combined innings with the Angels and Phillies last year, Syndergaard still felt the “Tommy John hangover,” saying that “I didn’t throw a pitch where it didn’t feel like I was pitching in a straightjacket….It’s hard to get hitters out when you’re thinking about what your body is doing in mid-delivery.”  It remains to seen if Syndergaard can ever fully return to his All-Star form, but even solid numbers and a clean bill of health would put him in nice position for a richer, multi-year contract in free agency next winter.

More from the NL and AL West…

  • Formerly one of baseball’s top prospects, Evan White played only 30 MLB games in 2021 and none in 2022 due to hip surgery, a sports hernia surgery, and related other setbacks and injuries.  White is feeling much better now, however, as the Mariners first baseman told Larry Stone of the Seattle Times that he received offseason treatment for “a muscle in my pelvic floor that was the biggest issue….You can give me all the stabilization exercises you want, but if I can’t do it from the very inner parts of me, it’s tough to do.  I’ve had injuries on that side since I was probably 14 years old.  I had to make sure everything was firing, firing the right patterns.”  Manager Scott Servais said the current plan is to keep White in his regular first base spot this spring until both White and the Mariners are fully sure of his health, and then perhaps White might get some looks as a corner outfielder, as a way of finding a lineup spot since Ty France now has first base locked down.
  • David Villar’s emergence as the Giants’ planned regular third baseman has left J.D. Davis in something of a crunch for playing time, as The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser notes that Davis might only see most of his action when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, with Davis and Wilmer Flores stepping in for Joc Pederson and LaMonte Wade Jr. at DH and first base, respectively.  Of course, injuries, under-performance, or the Giants’ penchant for platoon advantages could boost Davis’ time on the field, but on paper, Davis again looks to be a part-time player after filling a similar role over a good chunk of his time with the Mets.  Even after an underwhelming start last season, Davis finished 2022 hitting .240/.340/.418 over 365 plate appearances (119 wRC+) with New York and San Francisco, boosted largely by a hot streak after the Giants acquired him at the trade deadline.

Dodgers To Sign Noah Syndergaard To One-Year Deal

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December 16: The Dodgers have made it official, announcing the signing. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic provides details on the incentives. Syndergaard will earn a $500K bonus for reaching 130, 150 and 170 innings pitched.

December 14: The Dodgers and right-hander Noah Syndergaard are in agreement on a one-year contract that will see him make $13MM with $1.5MM in incentives available. He’ll reportedly unlock a $500K bonus for reaching each of 130, 150 and 170 innings. Syndergaard is represented by CAA Sports.

Syndergaard, 30, was once one of the best pitchers in the majors. In 2016, he tossed 183 2/3 innings with a 2.60 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.0 wins above replacement that year in the estimation of FanGraphs, third in the majors among pitchers with only Clayton Kershaw and José Fernández ahead of him. That was the highlight of a stretch from 2015 to 2019 in which he tossed 716 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to be himself over the past few years, as he required Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. That prevented him from pitching at all in that season and he also hit a few setbacks in 2021, ultimately limited to tossing just two innings late in the year. Despite that lengthy layoff, the Mets extended a qualifying offer to him after that season, which he rejected in order to sign with the Angels on a one-year, $21MM deal.

2022 was good but not great for Syndergaard. He stayed healthy enough to make 24 starts and one relief appearance, logging 134 2/3 innings. That included a midseason trade to the Phillies, whose World Series run allowed him to toss another 8 1/3 innings in the postseason. His 3.94 ERA was not spectacular, though it was solid enough. However, his fastball averaged “just” 94.5 mph after averaging 98.2 mph from 2015 to 2018. He struck out just 16.8% of batters he faced, a huge drop-off from his earlier marks. He still showed excellent control, walking just 5.5% of batters faced, and posted a 42.8% ground ball rate that was right around league average. But the overpowering “Thor” from the previous decade didn’t seem present.

MLBTR predicted that Syndergaard would be able to secure a three-year, $36MM contract, an average annual value of $12MM. Instead, he has opted for a one-year “prove it” deal for a second consecutive season. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Syndergaard had larger multi-year offers for more money from other teams but preferred to spend one year with the Dodgers and return to the open market again next winter.

The Dodgers have definitely preferred short-term deals and they have another one here. Last year, they signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year pacts worth $8MM and $8.5MM, respectively. They each went on to have very successful seasons, in different ways, that led to larger guarantees once they returned to the open market. Anderson got $39MM over three years from the Angels while Heaney got $25MM over two years from the Rangers, plus incentives and the ability to opt-out after the first season of the deal. Syndergaard has settled for a significantly lower salary than he got from the Angels a year ago, when he hardly pitched in the previous two seasons, but it seems he and the Dodgers are hoping this is a gamble that will pay off one year from now. Broadly speaking, the track record for pitchers in the second year after Tommy John surgery is stronger than in the first, which could help both parties win this bet.

For the Dodgers, this bolsters a rotation that was already strong but had its share of uncertainty. Syndergaard will slot in next to Julio Urías, Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Those four are also very good pitchers, but the group comes with injury concerns. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Adding Syndergaard gives them an extra arm to get through the season and will reduce the need to rely on depth options like Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson. It’s possible that Walker Buehler could contribute later in the year, but it’s not a guarantee after he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Financially, this deal brings the Dodgers’ payroll up to $185MM, per Roster Resource. That’s still well shy of the Opening Day figure they had in 2022, which was $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s been reported that the Dodgers are hoping to reset their luxury tax status this year. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers paid in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023, but they could go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor by limboing under the line in the coming season. Roster Resource pegs their current CBT figure at $201MM. That’s more than $30MM under the lowest tax threshold of $233MM, though there’s a chance Trevor Bauer’s suspension could be overturned, putting his contract back on the books and leaving the club’s CBT figure right around that threshold. A decision on that matter is expected in the next month.

In terms of the market for starting pitchers, Syndergaard is the latest of many dominoes to fall in the past couple of weeks. Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Zach Eflin and Mike Clevinger have all come off the board recently. For teams still interested in starting pitching, Carlos Rodón is clear top option available, followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and others. Syndergaard’s name hadn’t been connected to many teams this offseason, though the Orioles had a Zoom call with him earlier this month.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Dodgers and Syndergaard were in agreement. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic first reported that it was a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first had the $13MM salary and incentives. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times first added the $1.5MM value of those incentives, with Ardaya further reporting the exact breakdown of those bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Met With Noah Syndergaard

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As the Orioles search for additions to their rotation, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that they had a Zoom call with Noah Syndergaard yesterday. Syndergaard is a free agent after playing out the past season with the Angels and Phillies.

It’s been widely reported that the Orioles have been searching for starting pitching, but avoiding the very top of the free agent class, so it makes sense that Syndergaard would have appeal to them.

Syndergaard, 30, turned in a 3.94 ERA across 134 2/3 innings in 2022, his first full year back from 2020 Tommy John surgery. He started his one-year, $21MM deal with the Angels but was dealt to the Phillies at the deadline. The former Met’s fastball was well down from his pre-surgery days, as it dropped around five miles an hour to sit at 94.5 mph in 2022, while his slider that once sat at 93.1 mph dropped to 85.1. As a result, his strikeout rate fell considerably (16.8 % vs 24.5% in 2019).

Today’s version of Syndergaard might not be the overpowering one that earned the nickname ’Thor’ at the Mets, but it still amounts to a very valuable pitcher, and he’s still young enough that perhaps he can claw back some of that lost velocity in 2023. To that end, ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that Syndergaard has been taking an analytic approach to his offseason work, training at Driveline and Tread Athletics. MLBTR predicted Syndergaard would receive a three-year, $36MM deal this winter.

The Orioles currently have some combination of Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez penciled into their rotation. It’s a young group with plenty of question marks, so it certainly makes sense that they’d look to bump one or two of those names in favor of an external veteran addition or two.

Whether or not Syndergaard winds up in Baltimore, it seems almost certain that they’ll have a few names in their pitching ranks. The Orioles are looking to build from a promising 83-79 season in 2022, and the rotation is an area of focus. Should they miss on Syndergaard, the likes of Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon and Chris Bassitt could all have appeal.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

NL Injury Notes: Peralta, Wood, Wheeler, Phillies

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Freddy Peralta hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to right shoulder fatigue, but the Brewers right-hander told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters that he believes he’ll be back before the regular season is over, given how well Peralta has felt after preliminary throwing sessions.  The next step will be for Peralta to throw off of a mound, but it seems possible that he might not miss much time beyond the 15-day minimum stint on the injured list.

After an All-Star season in 2021, Peralta has pitched only 70 1/3 innings this year due to his current shoulder issue, as well as a posterior strain in that same right shoulder that cost him over two months of action.  Even with these health woes, Peralta has still posted a 3.45 ERA, and the Brewers can use all the help they can get as they fight for a playoff berth.

More updates on other injury situations from around the National League…

  • One pitcher who won’t be returning in 2022 in Alex Wood, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group) that Wood has been shut down for the remainder of the season.  Wood went onto the 15-day injured list at the start of September due to a left shoulder impingement, and since he hasn’t yet been cleared to throw, the Giants opted to keep the veteran southpaw on the sidelines.  Wood will finish his second season in San Francisco with a disappointing 5.10 ERA over 130 2/3 innings, though that ERA was somewhat inflated by a poor finish — with his shoulder injury hampering his effectiveness, Wood had a 7.89 ERA over his final three outings and 12 1/3 innings.  Wood is owed $12.5MM in 2023, the final season of the two-year free agent he signed to rejoin the Giants last winter.
  • With Zack Wheeler tentatively slated to return to the Phillies rotation on Wednesday, interim manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) said that the Phils will stick with their same rotation order.  This means that rookie left-hander Bailey Falter will retain his starting job, and Noah Syndergaard will be used as a piggyback starter behind Wheeler.  Syndergaard’s next actual start is slated for October 1, when the Phillies have a doubleheader against the Nationals.

Phillies Acquire Noah Syndergaard

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The Phillies have announced that they have acquired Noah Syndergaard from the Angels. Outfielders Mickey Moniak and Jadiel Sanchez will head to Los Angeles in return.

With the Phillies in the thick of a playoff race and the Angels well out of it, they make good trade partners. In fact, this is the second deal of the day between the Angels and Phillies, after they already swapped Brandon Marsh for Logan O’Hoppe.

Syndergaard, 29, was an excellent pitcher for the Mets from 2015 to 2019, with a 3.31 ERA in that time along with a 49.1% ground ball rate, 26.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and almost all of his 2021, with “Thor” returning to pitch just two innings late in the season.

Despite almost no action for two years, the Mets extended an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Syndergaard, which he turned down. The Angels decided to bet on his previous track record and signed him to a one-year, $21MM deal, also surrendering a draft pick in the process.

Syndergaard is having a quality season for the Halos, though not quite up to his previous standard. Through 15 starts and 80 innings on the year, he has a 3.83 ERA, 44.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate but much-diminished 18.9% strikeout rate. His velocity isn’t quite as strong as before and that strikeout dip is significant, but he’s still filling up the strike zone and keeping runs off the board.

For the Phillies, their rotation has been without Zach Eflin for the past month or so due to a knee injury, and he was transferred to the 60-day injured list earlier today. Syndergaard will take his spot in the rotation next to Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suarez.

For the Angels, Moniak essentially becomes a replacement for Marsh, who was dealt to the Phillies earlier today. The first overall pick of the 2016 draft, he hasn’t quite lived up to his prospect hype thus far. In 162 career games over the past three seasons, he’s slashed just .129/.214/.172. However, he can still be optioned for the remainder of this season and another season as well, meaning the Angels can give him plenty of time in Triple-A to try to get back on track. He also had less than a year of MLB service time coming into this season, meaning they can keep him on the team for years to come.

As for Sanchez, 21, the switch-hitting outfielder was selected by the Phillies in the 12th round of the 2019 draft. He landed the #19 spot on Baseball America’s list of top Philly prospects at their most recent update, with BA noting his excellent exit velocity in the minors. In 38 A-ball games this year, he’s hitting .236/.286/.429, wRC+ of 101.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Phillies were close to a deal for Syndergaard. Jayson Stark, also of The Athletic, was first on the return (Twitter links).

Phillies, Blue Jays Reportedly Finalists In Noah Syndergaard Bidding

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4:22pm: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Syndergaard bidding is down to the Phillies and Blue Jays.

8:09am: The Phillies are believed to have Syndergaard “at the top of their list” as they seek rotation upgrades, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic.

12:43am: The Blue Jays are “making a play” for Angels starter Noah Syndergaard, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Blue Jays Nation’s Brendon Kuhn was first to report the club’s contact with the Halos. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Jays, Braves and previously-reported Phillies were among the teams with recent interest in Syndergaard, although he notes that Atlanta’s acquisition of Jake Odorizzi could take them out of the market.

Morosi suggests a Syndergaard trade before the 6:00pm EST deadline is becoming “more likely.” That’s not particularly surprising, as the 29-year-old has looked like a strong trade candidate for weeks. The Halos have fallen well out of playoff contention, and Syndergaard is an impending free agent. Los Angeles also couldn’t tag him with a qualifying offer next offseason. Syndgeraard received and rejected a QO from the Mets last year, and the collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving a QO multiple times in their careers. Should the Angels hang onto the righty past the trade deadline, they could lose him to free agency for no compensation.

It seems likelier that general manager Perry Minasian and his staff will find a contender willing to relinquish some future considerations to add Syndergaard for the stretch run. He’s made 15 starts and worked 80 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. He doesn’t throw as hard or miss as many bats as he did during his early-career days with the Mets, but he’s a quality strike-thrower who induces a decent number of grounders. Syndergaard still looks like a solid mid-rotation arm whom some clubs could view as a possible Game 3 or Game 4 playoff starter.

Syndergaard is among the costlier options on the market, however. He signed a $21MM deal with the Halos last winter, and approximately $7.5MM of that tab has yet to be paid out. Perhaps the Angels will be willing to kick in some money to facilitate a trade, but if they’re insistent on an acquiring club picking up the remainder of the money, the prospect return could be fairly minimal.

The Cardinals landed José Quintana from the Pirates tonight, subtracting one of the more appealing rental arms from the market. It’s a rather thin group of impending free agent starters, particularly if the Red Sox and Giants elect to hold onto Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodón, respectively. Beyond Syndergaard, perhaps the top remaining rental starter likely to change hands is Drew Smyly. Controllable arms who could be available in the hours leading up to the deadline include Tyler Mahle, Pablo López and Zach Plesac.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Cardinals Interested In Jake Odorizzi

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Frankie Montas has been the name most attached to the Cardinals in their pitching search, yet St. Louis has also been exploring other rotation options.  The Cards and Astros have discussed the possibility of a trade involving veteran righty Jake Odorizzi, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  In addition, such names as Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi were “at least discussed internally” by the Cardinals’ front office as possible targets.

Odorizzi has been on the Cards’ radar for some time, as the club considered signing the right-hander as a free agent during the 2020-21 offseason.  Instead, Odorizzi signed a two-year deal with Houston worth $23.25MM in guaranteed money, with the 2023 season also covered via a $6.25MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout.  A variety of injuries have limited Odorizzi to 157 2/3 innings over his two years with the Astros, but he has posted a 4.22 ERA despite only a 19.5% strikeout rate.  The righty has relied on above-average walk rates and (in 2022) an outstanding hard-contact rate to retire batters.

Acquiring Odorizzi would have some echoes of the Cards’ deadline moves last year, when they landed veterans Jon Lester, J.A. Happ, and Wade LeBlanc in the wake of several rotation injuries.  Odorizzi at least has much better bottom-line results than that trio did when St. Louis swung those trades, and yet the Cardinals’ hope in a turn-around was rewarded, as all three pitched well and helped the Cards reach the wild card game.

St. Louis fans weren’t overly impressed with the club’s strategy at last year’s deadline, and given all the other big names linked to the Cards in trade rumors this summer, landing “only” Odorizzi to address the rotation could be again seen as underwhelming.  However, since the A’s are known to be asking for a ton for Montas and surely the Angels and Red Sox would want a good return even for rentals like Syndergaard or Eovaldi, Odorizzi could be a decent Plan C-type of option if the Cards feel the other asking prices are too high…..or, if the Cardinals direct their prospect capital towards acquiring someone like Juan Soto.

It is also possible that the Cardinals could land more than one of these pitchers, as the club has an increasingly acute need for rotation depth.  Beyond Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Dakota Hudson (activated off the 15-day injured list today) and Matthew Liberatore comprise the current starting five, as Jack Flaherty is still weeks away from returning from shoulder problems.

Steven Matz was supposed to provide some help when he returned from his own IL stint last week, except the left-hander tore his MCL in his return start.  It isn’t known yet if Matz will need surgery, yet President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold and other reporters today that there is only a “sliver” of a chance Matz pitches again in 2022, and it will be “very, very difficult to get him back this year.”

Turning to the Astros’ situation, trading Odorizzi would seem like an unusual move for a World Series contender that theoretically would want as much pitching depth as possible for a deep run through October.  However, the Astros could feel they have such depth already, with a six-man rotation on the active roster, Lance McCullers Jr. on his way back from the 60-day IL, and some other young arms in reserve in the minors.

To that end, Houston has reportedly been willing to discuss trades of controllable pitchers with other teams.  Odorizzi doesn’t exactly fit that description, of course, but it would seem like the Astros would be a lot more open to moving a veteran rather than a longer-term rotation piece like Cristian Javier or Jose Urquidy.

Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central

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The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).

St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.

Some more notes on the trade market for starters…

  • The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
  • For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
  • As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.
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