Rosenthal’s Latest: Dempster, Mora, Cameron
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; let’s take a look.
- Rosenthal agrees with those who considered C.C. Sabathia pitching the ninth inning Monday a needless risk. Sabathia already had thrown 112 pitches and the Brewers had a seven run lead, but he pitched the ninth to bring the total to 130. The innings shouldn’t affect Sabathia’s payday, but hopefully he remains healthy.
- Rosenthal sees a minimal chance of Ryan Dempster signing elsewhere, given his strong relationship with Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Dempster will be the Cubs’ top offseason priority. I also consider Kerry Wood unlikely to leave.
- Add Melvin Mora to the list of players who have cleared waivers. He, Aubrey Huff, and Ramon Hernandez will be shopped this winter. Mora has raised his numbers and stock significantly by hitting .378/.421/.652 since the beginning of July. He has a full no-trade clause and is owed $9MM next year.
- The Indians are almost certain to sign a closer this winter, with Brandon Lyon and Brian Fuentes perhaps the best available aside from Francisco Rodriguez and Wood.
- The Rockies will place Fuentes on waivers soon and may also shop Willy Taveras. Manny Corpas has already hit the wire.
- Rosenthal figures Mike Cameron‘s $10MM option for ’09 will be exercised. Cameron is hitting .245/.333/.509 in 372 plate appearances while playing strong defense.
- Gary Matthews Jr.‘s knee injury may prevent the Angels from trading him this winter. That, and the $33MM owed to him through 2011.
Players Who Cleared Waivers
I will make this post a permanent sidebar link. This is a running list of players who have cleared waivers, based on published reports. Once a player clears waivers, he can be traded to any team (barring a no-trade clause).
Updated 8-25-08 at 9:00am. Latest to clear in red.
- Paul Byrd – Byrd cleared waivers, but then was traded to the Red Sox. They were the only team willing to pay his remaining $2MM.
- Frank Catalanotto – Catalanotto, 34, is hitting .272/.337/.389 in 267 plate appearances. He’s played first base and left field this year. He’s not helpful against lefthanded pitching. His contract is a problem – $765K this year, $4MM in ’09, and a $2MM buyout in ’10.
- Eric Gagne – Gagne has been awful this year, as his walks and home runs skyrocketed and he dealt with rotator cuff tendinitis. Understandably, no one wanted to pay the $2.15MM remaining on his contract.
- Aubrey Huff – Huff’s .909 OPS ranks 10th in the league, but surprisingly no team wanted to take on his $10.1MM commitment through ’09.
- Mark Kotsay – Ken Rosenthal says he cleared and a number of teams are interested. Kotsay clearing is a bit of a surprise since the A’s are paying most of his salary. Kotsay can block trades to eight teams. The center fielder is having a nice comeback season with a .782 OPS in 324 plate appearances.
- Greg Maddux – Maddux is earning $10MM this year and will only accept a trade to a West Coast team. The Dodgers wanted him but asked the Padres to pay more than 80% of his remaining salary according to Peter Gammons.
- Kevin Millar – Millar has been OK this year; he may reach 20 home runs. He is owed about $710K from here on out.
- Kevin Millwood – Millwood, 33, has a 5.24 ERA in 122 innings this year. He’s dealt with a groin injury for much of the season, as well as a hamstring issue in spring. Millwood will earn another $1.6MM this year and $11MM in ’09. His 2010 salary of $12MM becomes a club option unless he pitches 180 innings in ’09.
- Melvin Mora – Mora has raised his numbers and stock significantly by hitting .378/.421/.652 since the beginning of July. He has a full no-trade clause and is owed $9MM next year and $1.79MM more this year.
- Vicente Padilla – Padilla, 31 in September, has a 4.98 ERA in 148.1 innings. Home runs have been his main problem. He spent time on the DL with a strained neck. He’ll earn another $2.1MM this year and $12MM in ’09. He has a $12MM club option for ’10 with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Jay Payton – Payton is the O’s regular center fielder with Adam Jones out for the season. He is owed $1.3MM for the rest of the season. He’s been lousy offensively, though he can hit lefties and play all three outfield positions.
- David Riske – Riske is owed $860K more this year, $4.25MM in ’09, and $4.5MM in ’10 plus a $250K buyout for a total of almost $10MM. Walks have been a problem this year, as well as elbow pain.
- Dave Ross – Ross had cleared waivers prior to being designated for assignment. He is earning $2.525MM this year.
- Duaner Sanchez – His velocity is down 3.6 mph from ’06. Sanchez is under team control through ’09.
- Scott Schoeneweis – His strikeout rate is down, but so is his ERA. Apparently no team wanted to risk taking on his contract – $910K more this year, $3.6MM in ’09.
- Gary Sheffield – No surprise here. Sheff is owed around $17.5 million between this year and next.
- Jamie Walker – The 37 year-old southpaw has a 5.00 ERA in 27 innings this year. As usual, home runs have been a problem. He spent time on the DL with elbow inflammation and is set to earn $4.5MM next year.
- David Weathers – Weathers is owed only $610K on the season, and he has a 2.52 ERA and 2.78 K/BB since the beginning of June. I am quite surprised he cleared waivers.
Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors
UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility. He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion. This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so. Mora may have negative value at this point. Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.
UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm: Rosenthal checks in with an update. If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle’s second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling. Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.
Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play. He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.
FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:
On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade. The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well. The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today. His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up. Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up." Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams. Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.
John Hickey admits that the rumors won’t die but doesn’t think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal. He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before. Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco. The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.
Phils Not Interested In Mora
Steve King reported yesterday that the Phillies were interested in third baseman/outfielder Melvin Mora. Not so, according to Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The specific words were "no chance." I saw this debunked elsewhere as well; can’t recall where at the moment.
As I said before, Mora doesn’t have much value and I’d imagine any team willing to pay his entire salary could have him for a song.
Phillies Interested In Melvin Mora
Melvin Mora doesn’t figure to be a hot commodity on the trade market. He’s got name recognition because of two very good seasons in from 2003-04. But he turns 36 in February and will earn $17MM over the next two years. He also has a no-trade clause, but he’d probably waive it to go to a competitor.
The Phillies are interested in Mora for their third base vacancy, according to Steve King. I don’t think the Phils would have to give up much in the way of prospects to get him; they could probably send over a bag of baseballs if they’re willing to take on the entire contract.
Yanks Have Interest In Tejada
The Orioles may have two third basemen to offer up this winter: Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora.
Tejada’s mind would need to be changed – he still doesn’t want to move to third. But the Yankees do have interest, and I can think of 13 million reasons Tejada would change his stance. Tejada came up as part of the inclusive list I came up with the night A-Rod opted out. The Orioles’ focus would be to acquire position players, so you’d have to think Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano would be targeted. Tyler Kepner adds that the Orioles would like to acquire Kyle Farnsworth in a Tejada deal. I doubt the Yankees would have a problem with that. The Yanks would have to make a very strong offer to convince the O’s to help their division rival.
One third baseman I didn’t include on my list was Melvin Mora. While Mora wants to remain with Baltimore, he said yesterday that he’d consider waiving his full no-trade clause if the Orioles asked him. They haven’t yet. Mora’s a below average offensive third baseman, hitting .274/.341/.418 last year. Mora will make roughly $17MM from 2008-09. He doesn’t figure to be a hot commodity.
Mora Interested In Phillies
The match makes so much sense that it was only a matter of time before the rumors started up. As I mentioned a week ago, Melvin Mora‘s the best available third baseman and the Phillies desperately need one of those.
Now that contract extension talks have broken off between Mora’s agent and the Orioles, the New Jersey Courier-Post reports:
"Mora is believed to be interested in playing with fellow Venezuelan Bobby Abreu. If Mora hopes to be traded this season to Philadelphia, two things might stand in his way. The Phillies currently have three players that can play third base and Abreu would certainly be involved in the trade."
I still don’t know why Mora just didn’t take the money. But as to the quote above, I think two things stand in Mora’s way, and they’re neither of the two listed.
First, the idea that the Phillies have three players that can play third base is technically true, but far from a roadblock. We are talking about David Bell (worst regular in baseball last year), Alex Gonzalez (the 33 year-old with his fifth team in three years), and Abraham Nunez (has topped a .700 OPS once in his career). Not exactly Wright, A-Rod, and Miggy here.
Second, the idea that the Phils could only acquire Mora if they sent Abreu the other way. Huh? Wouldn’t the Orioles prefer someone young and affordable? One of Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd would seem sufficient for an impending free agent.
The first real issue here is money. According to my Phillies source, the team is stretched at their $92MM payroll and even Mora’s $4MM for ’06 would be pushing it. They just added a mil for David Dellucci too. Maybe spending five mil spread among Ryan Franklin, Gonzalez, and Nunez wasn’t such a bright idea?
The other problem with a Mora-to-Philly deal is that third base, no matter how bleak, may not be the team’s most pressing need. Pat Gillick may want to focus on finding a decent backup for Tom Gordon, as the team really doesn’t have one. If Flash and his questionable elbow go down for any length of time, who will the Phillies turn to? Madson? Need him starting. Rhodes? Bombed in the role.
I suppose if you want to get really crazy, you could cook up a scenario in which the Phils send Abreu and cash to Baltimore (thus freeing up payroll) and receive Mora and a decent reliever in return. I’d say LaTroy Hawkins, but something tells me he wouldn’t thrive in Philly if forced to close games. And would Mora still embrace a trade if he didn’t get to play alongside Abreu?
Who Could Use Melvin Mora?
Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP. He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming. Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that. Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.
Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that. He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus. Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games. That included 115 HRs.
I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st. If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.
Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point. While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.
Red Sox: They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse. But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability. Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.
Twins: Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique. He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field. Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock. Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.
Braves: Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense. It would also help keep Chipper healthy. I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.
Phillies: The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now. The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot. There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.