Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Will Carroll Interview Part 2
Yesterday’s Part 1 of my Will Carroll interview is available here. Here’s the rest.
MLBTradeRumors: Would you agree with Buster Olney that the Mets are the most likely destination for Sammy Sosa? The Pirates are out of it now, so there aren’t many vacancies.
Will Carroll: If you can get him for nothing plus incentives, why not? I think the Mets would be a nice fit, but that team is trying to win, not get fans in there. I’d think a team that looks like a 500 team in a weak division could take the gamble. San Francisco?
MLB: What kind of performance would you expect for Aaron Heilman as a starter?
WC: I saw his first AAA start and wasn’t that impressed there. I think he’s overexposed as a starter, but could be solid as a reliever. Remember, Brad Lidge was a starter at Notre Dame too.
MLB: Does the new Devil Rays management team have a mindset similar to Chuck LaMar, or will the Rays find worthwhile deals for Lugo, Huff, and Baez before the season begins?
WC: Dear lord no. I was very impressed with the Rays staff that I met in Dallas. I think being patient is being mistaken for being stubborn due to the history of Lamar. I mean, it looks like the same result, but the difference is that this administration just has a plan.
MLB: Your guess on Kerry Wood‘s number of innings pitched for 2006?
WC: 140.
MLB: Who’s the Jonny Gomes of 2006 – a player on the verge of breakout who just needs an opportunity?
WC: Corey Hart.
MLB: Will we see Daisuke Matsuzaka in the Majors in 2007?
WC: I hope so, but he’s so good and so overused, we may never see how good he could have been.
MLB: Do you expect anything out of the Florida rotation besides Willis and Vargas? Can Olsen, Petit, or Mitre post solid seasons?
WC: In a couple years, the Fish could have a ton of pitching or none. I think those three could be league average but look better in the park. I’m curious to see how Girardi will handle things, whether he’ll have any touch with a pitching staff, whether he’ll grab a mask and glove like Boone used to do.
TD: Does Keith Foulke finish 2006 as Boston’s closer?
WC: Craig Hansen will be there about a decade.
Oakland A’s Buzz
I’ve got a source out of Oakland who filled me in on the latest buzz from the club recently.
Frank Thomas has told his agent, Arn Tellem, that he wants to join the A’s. Billy Beane holds all the cards here, as Thomas’s confusing medical reports have scared off all other suitors. Gambling on Thomas’s health is another example of Beane snagging a player undervalued in the market.
Word is that the A’s really don’t want to go to arbitration with Milton Bradley. Bradley’s due for a sizeable raise from the $2.5MM he made in 2005, and he’s using his leverage to milk the team for some extra bucks.
He’s no longer an Athletic, but the word is that Octavio Dotel‘s medical records indicate that he only has one or two years left in baseball due to some possible shoulder problems. Dotel also had Tommy John surgery in June 2005.
Manny To Philly Rumor Looks False
This trade rumor has been lighting up forums across the Internet all day long: Manny Ramirez to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. According to the rumor, it’s "basically a done deal." I got in touch with my very best Phillies source for the scoop. According to my source:
"I checked it out with high-ranking sources as early as 4 p.m., then again at 7. Nothing is going on."
This is definitely an authentic, reliable source, so I have to assume that this trade rumor doesn’t have a leg to stand on. I’m the last guy to want to kill an exciting trade rumor, but Manny for Abreu is not a done deal as far as I can tell.
Will Carroll Interview
Today I was privileged to have a chance to interview Baseball Prospectus‘s injury analyst, Will Carroll. In addition to the injuries, Will does a Rumor Mill column a couple of times a year and always has some good info. In case you’re interested, I interviewed Will back in August about all sorts of pitching topics. Anyway, his answers to my questions are in bold below. This is Part 1 of the interview; I’ll post the rest tomorrow.
MLBTradeRumors: Does Kevin Brown have anything left? Any teams that might take a chance on him, given that he was solid in 2004?
Will Carroll: He’s still good – not great and not worth the money he’s owed – when he’s healthy, but at this stage, keeping him healthy seems less and less likely. There are teams that could afford to wait, to see what they can get, but the Yankees aren’t one of them.
MLB: Can Erubiel Durazo help a team in ’06? With Piazza and Thomas as the big name DH options, can he find a job anywhere? Also, will he be ready for spring training after Tommy John surgery?
WC: Again, good if healthy, but I’m not sure he was ever as good as we wanted him to be. I’m sure he can find a job somewhere if he can prove he’s healthy. I’m not sure where he is in his rehab since there’s no good source to check with.
MLB: In your opinion, the best and worst free agent signings this winter?
WC: Man, I was bad on this last year. I don’t like the Jays signings, but I understand them. The Damon signing is understandable, but just resets the clock on the Bernie Williams problem – aging OF who can’t throw — by three years. Best? Probably Paul Byrd.
MLB: Do you think Bengie Molina can replicate his 2005 numbers? Will he be stuck with a one year deal?
WC: Pretty surprising, but I guess there’s always one guy who loses out when he thinks he’ll cash in. I’d think he’d regroup a bit from this and he’s aging and a catcher.
MLB: Which team is the best fit for Jeff Weaver?
WC: Angels. He’d be a great fit a lot of places, but I think the Angels have the most to gain, especially with his brother in the organization.
Baez To Dodgers?
Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News reported a new Danys Baez rumor today. Apparently, the Dodgers have inquired on him given Eric Gagne‘s impending free agency. Of course, Baez is due for a big contract himself when he hits free agency after 2006.
These talks are still preliminary, but I was able to uncover some more info from a source close to the Devil Rays. Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall. The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away.
As mentioned on this site a week ago, the Baez for Aaron Heilman rumor wasn’t equal value for the Mets. This possibility seems more reasonable to me.
Win A Free Copy Of The 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide
That’s right – this is your opportunity to snag a bona fide 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide, absolutely free. There’s just one catch – you have to be a member of the RotoAuthority mailing list to be eligible for the random drawing. Just go to RotoAuthority and sign up; it’s on the sidebar under Mailing List. I’ll annouce the winner in one week!
Details On Tejada Negotiations
Just got a little bit of info from my White Sox source concerning the now deceased White Sox trade for Miguel Tejada.
Word is that the White Sox bowed out late Friday when the Orioles insisted on Brandon McCarthy or Lance Broadway in addition to the other players. It seems Broadway’s status pick in the 2005 June draft would’ve necessitated his inclusion as a PTBNL. The White Sox wouldn’t budge, and the deal died.
One other new tidbit is that the Orioles changed gears and attempted to engage the White Sox in an Erik Bedard trade. It is speculated that Jose Contreras would’ve been involved in such a deal, but that is not confirmed.
Patterson To Orioles For Minor Leaguers
According to ESPN and other sources, Corey Patterson has been dealt to the Orioles for 20 year-old 2B/SS Nate Spears and 23 year-old southpaw starter Carlos Perez. Spears is a scrappy middle infielder in the David Eckstein mold. He hit .294/.349/.429 for advanced Class A Frederick in 2005. Perez posted a 4.28 ERA in 151 innings for Class A Delmarva this year.
Click here to view my Corey Patterson projection.
Fantasy Baseball: Top 20 Catchers
I’m proud to announce a new writing gig with The Hardball Times. It’s a fantastic website, and I’ll be contributing some fantasy articles. My first is catcher rankings, which were based on my 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide, which is less than ten bucks for a limited time.