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Archives for July 2006

White Sox Pursuing Jason Schmidt?

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Of couple of ESPN columnists seem to have independently arrived at the same trade rumor in their blogs in recent days.  Buster Olney’s source is a "talent evaluator" while Jayson Stark got word from "an executive who has heard this talk." 

According to Olney and Stark, the White Sox would trade Brandon McCarthy and Brian Anderson to the Giants for Jason Schmidt.  The Sox would then acquire a center fielder in a separate trade.

Schmidt, 33, has been the NL’s second best pitcher this year behind Brandon Webb. This is his contract year and he’s making $10.5 million.  Anderson and McCarthy were ranked #1 and #3 among White Sox prospects entering the 2005 season.  McCarthy has had superb control at the big league level, with his one flaw being too many home runs allowed.  U.S. Cellular inflates home runs by about 35%, while AT&T Park deflates them by around 10%.  It’s been a rough 81 games for Anderson with the Sox, but the 24 year-old remains in high regard.

Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez, and Jon Garland haven’t performed as well as the Sox would’ve liked; all three own ERAs near 5 entering the All-Star break.  Chicago would stand to gain an estimated three wins by replacing one of them with Schmidt.  Olney speculated that Kenny Williams could consider using one of his surplus starters to acquire a center fielder.

Names that have come up in center include Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, or Aaron Rowand.  None of the three seem feasible for various reasons.  The Sox could also consider players like Luis Matos, Willy Taveras, Brady Clark, Juan Pierre, and Ken Griffey Jr.  Clark would be a good fit if Doug Melvin makes him available.  It certainly wouldn’t hurt to add Clark’s .380 OBP to the top of the lineup, and he plays capable defense.  He’s signed through 2007.    

2007 Free Agent Market: Center Fielders

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Updated 12-23-06

Let’s take a look at center fielders destinated to become free agents at year’s end.  This position typically requires a good defender, though it’s nice to contribute offensively.

2006 League Averages for Center Fielders:
AL: .275/.334/.437 (.771 OPS)
NL: .264/.335/.418 (.753 OPS)

Center field defense is crucial.  With that in mind, I will provide John Dewan’s ranking from his excellent Fielding Bible.  Dewan and company ranked 35 center fielders using data over the past three seasons.  I am going to leave Preston Wilson, Bernie Williams, and Jay Payton out of the discussion as they are not viewed as regular center fielders. 

Darin Erstad – Erstad returned to center field for 27 games this year, and it’s hard to get a read on how far his defense has fallen since his 2002 Gold Glove season out there.  He’s 32 now and is earning $8.5MM.  An ankle injury put him on the DL this season two separate times.  Given his below average bat and shaky ankle, all the grittiness in the world wouldn’t make him a good signing for ’07 and beyond.  The Rox are interested even after their acquisition of Willy Taveras.   

Steve Finley – Finley turned 41 this season and makes $7 mil.  His 2007 option for the same price will surely be bought out for a million bucks.  His bat is below average for the position this year.  His defense is ranked 14th out of 35 center fielders over the last three years but declined considerably last year.  His arm is OK and his range is diminished at this point.  A pretty poor signing but someone will probably bite for a million or so.  The Cubs could work. 

What Could Greg Maddux Bring?

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Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux.  The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. 

Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year.  His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple.  The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003.  The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine.  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball.  At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance.  Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.

Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver.  He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth.  He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.

If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job.  For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart.  He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future.  The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres.  Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.

Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season.  It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.

 

Reds Acquire Guardado

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The Reds swapped oft-traded starter Travis Chick for southpaw reliever Eddie Guardado today.

Cincinnati’s bullpen ERA of 5.28 is dead last in the National League.  They’ve also blown 13 saves, third worst.  Current closer Todd Coffey’s 1.38 WHIP doesn’t gel with his 3.08 ERA.  He’s fortunate that it’s that low.  With a 5.9 K/9, Coffey is more hittable than most teams like their closers.  Since June 1st, Coffey has blown two saves and taken three losses. 

35 year-old Guardado has been even more hittable, and he’s also had worse control and allowed a ton of home runs.  The Reds should be on the hook for about $3 million bucks assuming the Mariners aren’t eating any salary.  I’m not sure if this move improves their bullpen at all, but maybe a change of scenery will stir something in Guardado.  After all, it’s only been 23 innings and Guardado was quite solid as recently as last year.  Guardado was supplanted as Seattle’s closer by J.J. Putz this season.

Chick, a 22 year-old righty, has at least made progress in his strikeout rate at Double A.  This trade reminds me of something Buster Olney said in his blog today:

"Many, many teams are looking for middle relievers but very few are available because, quite simply, most of them are cheap. "It really doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade a good middle reliever because you’re not paying him that much, and as soon as you trade one, you’ve got to find a replacement," said an AL GM. "Everybody is looking for the same thing," said another AL executive, "and there’s almost nothing out there.’"

This makes me think the Cubs might be able to get something halfway decent in return for their investment in Scott Williamson.

Thursday Morning Reading

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RotoAuthority has a look at some possible closers for 2007 in the American League.

I was stumbling around the Internet looking for info on Tim Corcoran yesterday, and I came across a Devil Rays blog that I like.  Check out Rays Index.

Read Viva El Birdos’ take on the Jeff Weaver acquisition.

A comparison of a couple of young aces in the making at Hardball Times.

Is it Pelfrey Time this weekend?

How Dave from U.S.S. Mariner would improve the Mariners.

Sometimes I forget that the Astros have the need and young players to be a major player at the trading deadline.  Richard Justice outlines what has to be done.

Jeff Weaver Traded To Cardinals

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Breaking word is that Jeff Weaver has been dealt to the Cardinals for minor league outfielder Terry Evans plus cash considerations. 

Evans is a 24 year-old outfielder currently hitting .307/.369/.640 in 75 ABs for the Cards’ Double A affiliate. He struggled in High Class A last year, but mastered the level in two months this season.  He’s been described as the "out of nowhere prospect who mashed his way out of A ball" by Viva El Birdos. 

Weaver is expected to join the team in Houston.  News of this trade comes courtesy of Fox Sports Midwest.  A week ago, I wrote about how Weaver has had terrible luck and his strikeout and walk rates are similar to expectations.

Special thanks to the St. Louis Swarm Softball organization for passing this along.

Globe and Mail: Cubs To Move Barrett?

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The Globe and Mail is Canada’s second-largest daily newspaper.  This little tidbit from sportswriter Jeff Blair may have escaped your attention:

"My sources are telling me that the Blue Jays and Cubs could figure in a deal after the All-Star break. The Cubs are going to dump infielder Todd Walker and might also look at moving Michael Barrett — whose omission from the NL All-Star team, even though it owes much to the justifiable presence of pitcher Carlos Zambrano as the Cubs representative, is one of the injustices of the All-Star rosters. Surprising, considering his knockdown of A.J. Pierzynski was universally cheered in most clubhouses. Barrett has his fans in the Blue Jays front office."

This is the first mention I’ve heard of Barrett as a trade candidate.  The 29 year-old is having a career-best season with the bat, hitting .305/.371/.502 in 213 ABs.  The Cubs acquired Barrett from Oakland (for whom he never actually played) for Damian Miller in December of 2003.  Barrett’s current deal leaves about $8 million due for 2006-07.  According to Baseball Prospectus, that’s very similar to his true value based on projections.  They have him worth $7.25 mil during that time period.

Given that the average NL catcher is hitting .266/.323/.403 this season, Barrett’s offense is quite an asset.  However, it’s still an open question as to whether his defense cancels out most of the value.  There aren’t a ton of great stats to evaluate a catcher’s work behind the plate.  One area in which Barrett is clearly deficient is throwing out baserunners.  His 20.6% success rate this year ranks 19th out of 22 qualified catchers.  Last year he was at 23%, and in ’04 it was 24%.  Barrett’s inability to throw out basestealers could mean as many as 60 outs that a Pudge Rodriguez would’ve recorded over the course of a season.

In a normal season Barrett will probably allow 5-10 passed balls, not terribly different from the average backstop.  But those are really the only two metrics I have.  Even John Dewan’s excellent Fielding Bible doesn’t tackle the issue of catcher defense.  Let’s face it: any critique of game-calling skills would be entirely anecdotal or subjective.  Players don’t openly criticize game-calling for the most part.  And I don’t buy into the catcher ERA concept at all.

Barrett has played over 100 games at third base back in his Expo days.  Considering the very weak free agent markets for third basemen and catchers, Barrett is an excellent pickup at an affordable price.  There’s even the possibility that his hitting improves further if he’s removed from the rigors of catching.  Some possible suitors include the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres. 

White Sox Content With Current Team

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I recently spoke with my best White Sox source.  There’s nothing terribly exciting brewing with the club right now:

The Sox are content with their personnel this year, even more than a year ago.  They’re happy with their depth and probably will not make any major deals before the deadline (ie, Andruw Jones is highly unlikely).

If they are to make a small trade, the White Sox match up well with sabermetric-type teams.  Kenny Williams has made minor but helpful trades recently with Boston (David Riske) and Arizona (Alex Cintron).  (And of course another not-so-small trade with Josh Byrnes for Javier Vazquez).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see another small trade with that type of club.  Chicago has been middle of the pack as far as relievers’ ERA, so the ’pen may have room for upgrade.

On an unrelated note, my source also indicated that the Dodgers are "kicking a lot of tires right now" and may acquire bullpen help this week.

Now There’s A Trade Rumor

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This is a hell of a trade rumor, and it’d be wrong not to pass it along.  According to the blog Bleed Cubbie Blue:

"The Cubs are reportedly "in discussions" with the Yankees for a deal in which the principals would be Aramis Ramirez…and Alex Rodriguez…This deal, if it happens, might also include Jacque Jones, and other lesser players including prospects on both sides.

This same source told me that the White Sox are "close" to acquiring Andruw Jones from the Braves; the price would be Brian Anderson and young pitching. That deal would also make sense for both sides.

If the A-Rod to the Cubs deal happens, also expect Todd Walker to be moved (maybe to the Tigers), and at that point A-Rod moves back to SS, Ronny Cedeno to 2B, and the Cubs get a placeholder 3B until they can either sign one or trade for one in the offseason."

Just to reiterate, all of the above comes courtesy of Bleed Cubbie Blue.  My own personal feeling is that the rumor did indeed originate from a legitimate source.  Now let’s take a closer look.

As you may know, A-Rod’s contract deserves a webpage unto itself.  As far as I can tell, the Yankees, or any other team, would owe him $16MM annually through 2010.  Based on projections, that’s pretty close to fair value. 

Aramis Ramirez was given the unfortunate ability to opt out of his current deal and become a free agent after this season.  Even if 2006 is an off-year, I think he could top the three years, $33.5MM he’s owed in the deal.  1060west sums it up: Ramirez will probably test the market given the weak class at the position. 

As for the other rumor – Jones would certainly be a sweet pickup for the White Sox.  Brian Anderson has been terrible this year, but he was the organization’s best prospect entering the 2005 season according to Baseball America.  The Sox have some decent if not spectacular pitching prospects, so this one isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  Plus, there’s always Brandon McCarthy.

It will be interesting to see if this one picks up enough steam to catch the eye of the Chicago print media.  They will undoubtedly dismiss it as an Internet rumor and not credit BCB as the source.       

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