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Archives for February 2007

Win A Free Fantasy Guide

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One week from today, I’m going to give away five free copies of my 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Guide.  As with any customer, you’ll receive the weekly updates too.  To be eligible, you just have to sign up for the RotoAuthority Mailing List.  The list simply sends you a daily email linking to the new posts on RotoAuthority; nothing else.  I hope that you will like what you read and stick around.

To sign up, just go to RotoAuthority and find the Mailing List section on the lefthand sidebar.

If you don’t feel like leaving it up to chance, you can buy the Guide for $9.99 here.    

Should Cubs Trade Zambrano?

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Phil Rogers has an idea – if the Cubs can’t come to an agreement with Carlos Zambrano, they should trade him.  And sooner rather than later.  Personally, I don’t buy into the Bobby Abreu theory – that the Phils were inspired to play better because they traded him for peanuts.  He’d look mighty fine in the Phillies’ lineup this year, and I think Ryan Howard would’ve had the same insane second half with or without him.  Then again, I wasn’t in the Phillies’ clubhouse last summer so who knows.  But I digress.

Rogers thinks Z will get his five or six-year deal from the Cubs.  But he speculates on several possible return packages.  Ervin Santana, Wood/Aybar, and Adenhart/Mathis from the Angels.  Pavano and Sanchez/Clippard from New York.  Pelfrey/Humber, Heilman, and Martinez/Gomez from the Mets.

Given the deals for Jason Jennings and Adam Eaton, Zambrano would certainly command one top-flight young pitcher (Chris Young, Jason Hirsh).  He would also require a second promising but imperfect young position player (Adrian Gonzalez, Willy Taveras).  Then there’d be at least one more wild card piece (Akinori Otsuka, Taylor Buchholz).

So a Santana/Aybar/Mathis package seems fair.  I’m sure some other clubs could assemble something comparable.  In the Mets’ case, Rogers’ selection of players seems too much.  Then again, one season of Zambrano is clearly superior to one of Jennings or Eaton. 

Should Cubs Trade Zambrano?

By | at

Phil Rogers has an idea – if the Cubs can’t come to an agreement with Carlos Zambrano, they should trade him.  And sooner rather than later.  Personally, I don’t buy into the Bobby Abreu theory – that the Phils were inspired to play better because they traded him for peanuts.  He’d look mighty fine in the Phillies’ lineup this year, and I think Ryan Howard would’ve had the same insane second half with or without him.  Then again, I wasn’t in the Phillies’ clubhouse last summer so who knows.  But I digress.

Rogers thinks Z will get his five or six-year deal from the Cubs.  But he speculates on several possible return packages.  Ervin Santana, Wood/Aybar, and Adenhart/Mathis from the Angels.  Pavano and Sanchez/Clippard from New York.  Pelfrey/Humber, Heilman, and Martinez/Gomez from the Mets.

Given the deals for Jason Jennings and Adam Eaton, Zambrano would certainly command one top-flight young pitcher (Chris Young, Jason Hirsh).  He would also require a second promising but imperfect young position player (Adrian Gonzalez, Willy Taveras).  Then there’d be at least one more wild card piece (Akinori Otsuka, Taylor Buchholz).

So a Santana/Aybar/Mathis package seems fair.  I’m sure some other clubs could assemble something comparable.  In the Mets’ case, Rogers’ selection of players seems too much.  Then again, one season of Zambrano is clearly superior to one of Jennings or Eaton. 

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

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Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

By | at

Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

Clemens Has 80% Chance Of Retiring

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Take it with a grain of salt, but Roger Clemens said today in a radio interview that he told his son "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said: "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."

The thing is, he is leaving everyone hanging.  Leaving someone hanging is delaying a decision about something.  As long as he leaves that door open 20% to play baseball, he’s leaving the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and baseball fans hanging.  If I ask a girl on a date, and she says there’s a 20% chance she’ll go but she’ll get back to me in a few months…actually I would take that as a no.  Never mind.

Clemens Has 80% Chance Of Retiring

By | at

Take it with a grain of salt, but Roger Clemens said today in a radio interview that he told his son "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said: "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."

The thing is, he is leaving everyone hanging.  Leaving someone hanging is delaying a decision about something.  As long as he leaves that door open 20% to play baseball, he’s leaving the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and baseball fans hanging.  If I ask a girl on a date, and she says there’s a 20% chance she’ll go but she’ll get back to me in a few months…actually I would take that as a no.  Never mind.

Keith Foulke Retires

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UPDATE: Foulke retired after feeling some elbow pain this spring.

Word via a Cleveland radio station is that closer candidate Keith Foulke will announce his retirement today.  He was the favorite to pitch the ninth inning, but now it will go to Joe Borowski.

The move is quite a surprise; perhaps he uncovered a serious injury.  He’ll abandon a $5MM salary.  Foulke is 34; he’s got a 3.30 career ERA in 755 innings. 

Keith Foulke Retires

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UPDATE: Foulke retired after feeling some elbow pain this spring.

Word via a Cleveland radio station is that closer candidate Keith Foulke will announce his retirement today.  He was the favorite to pitch the ninth inning, but now it will go to Joe Borowski.

The move is quite a surprise; perhaps he uncovered a serious injury.  He’ll abandon a $5MM salary.  Foulke is 34; he’s got a 3.30 career ERA in 755 innings. 

Zambrano Close To Five-Year Deal?

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According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Carlos Zambrano announced yesterday that he’s close to signing a five-year contract with the Cubs.  However, Sullivan’s source says the two sides still have a long way to go and Zambrano has yet to receive a concrete offer.

Based on comments from Zambrano and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, the two parties seem to agree on a five-year length.  Capping at five instead of six or seven years is a huge win for the Cubs, even if they go up to $17MM annually.  Most likely, the sides will settle around five years and $80MM.  That’d be a significant loyalty discount for the Cubs.  On the other hand, Zambrano’s deal would be on par with those of Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter. 

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