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Archives for May 2007

Cafardo On Starting Pitching Market

By Tim Dierkes | May 7, 2007 at 3:16pm CDT

While it was written BR (Before Roger), Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe had a good article yesterday discussing attainable starting pitchers.

  • On the topic of Rich Harden, Cafardo quotes some GMs saying he is indeed available if a team will give up a bonanza of young talent.  The A’s have publicly denied shopping him, but I’ve heard otherwise and Cafardo’s sources agree.  As we keep repeating, Harden will need to come back strong for at least a few weeks before anything gets done.
  • As we discussed earlier, the Giants might find Matt Morris or Noah Lowry expendable if Tim Lincecum settles in.  Peter Gammons believes Brian Sabean wants a young position player in return, though any kind of Melky Cabrera deal is probably off the table now.
  • Casey Fossum and his $2.2MM salary are certainly available.  I’ve heard the same in chatting with RJ of Drays Bay.  Hard to find much to like in Fossum’s performance the last couple of years, though.  And if you want more expensive junk, Eric Milton makes $9MM this year.
  • With the way Fausto Carmona and Adam Miller have pitched, the Tribe wouldn’t mind trading Paul Byrd.  Byrd makes $7 mil this year.  He’s walked just three in 24.2 innings and has a 2.92 ERA so far.  I’d be surprised if he’s not traded this year.
  • We’ve also talked about the extra arms the Royals have right now; Odalis Perez is the most likely to go.  Cafardo throws the inconsistent Zack Greinke in there too.
  • The Phillies need bullpen help, yes.  But right now they also need Jon Lieber in their rotation until Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia show something.
  • If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? The Brew Crew has at least six Major League quality starters right now though, considering what Yovani Gallardo has done.  Claudio Vargas at $2.5MM or Dave Bush at only $450K both have plenty of service time left. The Brewers really don’t need any kind of upgrade right now though.
  • The Cards might abandon the Kip Wells experiment, especially once Mark Mulder comes back.
  • A White Sox fire sale could be in order, with Mark Buehrle the first to go because of his impending free agency.
  • The Rockies keep trying to peddle Josh Fogg or Byung-Hyun Kim on someone.  Kim should be gone soon, with the Tigers, Orioles, and Mariners considering him.
  • I can see the Jays shipping Tomo Ohka back to the NL; he’s at least taken the ball when asked.
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Jim Hendry Trade Profile

By Tim Dierkes | May 7, 2007 at 1:21pm CDT

Jim Hendry took over as the General Manager of the Cubs on July 5th, 2002.  The team was awful that year, finishing 67-95.  However, the team’s Pythagorean record of 76-86 indicated better things to come.  Let’s take a look at Hendry’s deals over the years, and try to determine his tendencies and favorite trading partners.  He’s been quite active, making 48 trades by my count.

One trend I noticed is that Hendry hasn’t gotten much in return when trying to dump veterans from out-of-contention clubs.  He failed to trade Fred McGriff in ’02, opting to send off Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen at the July deadline.  That year, Hendry preferred to dump off his vets in August, ditching Tom Gordon, Jeff Fassero, and Bill Mueller for nothing of consequence.  (He later dumped many vets like Matt Lawton, Greg Maddux, Todd Hollandsworth, Phil Nevin, Scott Williamson, Todd Walker, and Neifi Perez without receiving useful players.)

Hendry’s first offseason was a success.  He revamped his catching corps by getting Damian Miller and Paul Bako, and somehow managed to send off Todd Hundley for two helpful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros. The Cubs netted about six wins in ’03 with the acquisitions.  Hermansen was in that deal so maybe we can say Hendry acquired one useful player in a salary dump trade.

You’ll notice that much of the core of the current Cubs team came from Hendry’s generally fine trading skills.  He fleeced Dave Littefield for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in July of ’03, and went back to grab Randall Simon in August.  Ramirez was only 25 at the time of the deal and had hit 34 HR as a 23 year-old.  Unbelievable that Bobby Hill could get this done.

Hendry’s finest trade came in the winter of ’03, when he acquired Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi during the Marlins’ fire sale.  Choi never panned out, while Lee blossomed into a star.  Marlins GM Larry Beinfest exacted his revenge on Hendry two years later in the Juan Pierre deal – one of Hendry’s few trade missteps.  Hendry surrendered useful young pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Mitre, and Renyel Pinto for Pierre.  A month after the Lee trade Hendry acquired Michael Barrett from Billy Beane for Damian Miller – another win.

The Cubs didn’t give up anything too useful in their blockbuster trade of the summer of ’04, acquiring Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton.  Even though Nomar didn’t help the Cubs, they came out ahead with Murton.  Hendry has quietly gotten the better of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein.

The Sammy Sosa trade in February of ’05 didn’t bring the Cubs anything useful; Jerry Hairston Jr. never panned out.  But that was a salary dump, and Hendry did the best he could with a player he simply had to trade away.  A year later the Cubs couldn’t stand another minute with Corey Patterson, and he became an Oriole too.  That one made Hendry look foolish.  A third trade of the same variety was made in May of ’05, when Hendry sent the much-maligned LaTroy Hawkins to the Giants for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma.  That was his only "forced" type trade that resulted in useful players.

Hendry waited a while to find a replacement for the injured Lee in ’06, eventually settling on a league average Phil Nevin from Texas.  The Cubs soon became sellers that year, and the best Hendry could do for Greg Maddux was Cesar Izturis.  He’s generally much better as a buyer than a seller, except for the Pierre deal.

Hendry’s favorite trading partners are Theo Epstein and Dave Littlefield; he’s made four deals with each.  He also enjoys dealing with the Orioles’ braintrust, Larry Beinfest, Dave Dombrowski, Doug Melvin, and Dan O’Dowd.  His one and only crosstown trade came this winter with the Neal Cotts–David Aardsma deal; that one’s too early to call.  Click here to Download chicago_cubs_hendry.xls – Hendry’s entire trading record in a spreadsheet.

While Hendry’s free agency record is questionable, he comes out as a strong trader upon review.  Cubs fans should have confidence that he’ll add some helpful players in July and August if the team is in the race.

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Chicago Cubs GM Trade Profiles Jim Hendry

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MLB Trade Rumors: Angels Looking for a Bat

By Tim Dierkes | May 7, 2007 at 9:50am CDT

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that with injuries to Howie Kendrick and Garrett Anderson and poor performance by Shea Hillenbrand, the Angels are stepping up their efforts to improve their anemic offense via the trade market.  Reportedly, the Angels are kicking the tires on several players, including "Colorado third baseman Garrett Atkins and outfielders Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker, outfielders Kevin Mench (Milwaukee), Jacque Jones (Chicago Cubs), Pat Burrell (Philadelphia) and Emil Brown (Kansas City), and third basemen Morgan Ensberg (Houston) and Edwin Encarnacion (Cincinnati)."

The Angels are hoping to deal from a starting rotation that goes seven deep, dangling Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley, and the hope is that whoever they obtain, the player can first fill in for Anderson in left field and then move to designated hitter when Anderson returns in a month or so.

In this scenario, Pat Burrell would be a great fit for the Angels, however its hard to see how the deal could work for the Phillies.  The Phils need relievers, not starters, and Burrell is one of the few hitters on the team that can provide power from the right side of the plate.  Perhaps if the Phillies knew that Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino would stay hot or that Wes Helms would get hot, they would be more willing to deal, or, if what the Angels were offering was the type of reliever the Phillies need, then perhaps something could be worked out.

But as it stands, those are probably too many "ifs" to overcome.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

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Clemens Chooses Yankees

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 10:48pm CDT

No more debating or Hendricks emails – Roger Clemens will be a Yankee in 2007.  He made the announcement today at Yankee Stadium during the seventh inning stretch.  He’s signed a minor league contract with New York and should be pitching in the bigs by June 1 at the latest.  According to Peter Gammons on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks offered Clemens $28MM for the season and the Red Sox $18MM.  Both figures are pro-rated, and the Red Sox were hoping to have Clemens start in late June rather than late May.  I’m surprised the Sox wouldn’t top $3MM per month.

Peter Abraham has additional details: the Yanks first offered Clemens $25.5MM in Spring Training, wanting him at that time.  Abraham says a 2007 debut in the first week of June seems likely, and a commenter at his blog makes an educated guess of June 8th against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium.

Clemens is a player worth five wins by himself in just half a season, if you are a proponent of WARP.  And I don’t mean pitching wins – I mean wins in the standings for the Yanks above what a replacement level guy, say Darrell Rasner, would provide.  What was at one point a laughable starting rotation for a team with such a huge payroll will become the following in a month and change:

Clemens
Pettitte
Mussina
Wang
Hughes

The Yankees are currently 13-15, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox.  The wild card still isn’t the most attainable alternative, with the Indians and Tigers both playing .620 baseball.

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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Roger Clemens

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Mets Sign Brian Lawrence

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 10:40pm CDT

UPDATE: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post spoke to Lawrence’s agent, and he’s signed with the Mets.  Omar is just stockpiling arms.

Is it just me, or has there been a ton of interest in Brian Lawrence, dating back to this offseason?  He was admittedly a decent innings eater for the Padres for four years, but he missed all of ’06 and couldn’t crack the Rockies’ rotation.

Nonetheless, the Tigers have offered Lawrence a Triple A contract.  I suppose there’s nothing to lose here except a million bucks or so.  The Tigers have received excellent work from their front three starters, but are rightfully concerned about Chad Durbin and Mike Maroth eating up 40% of the starts until Kenny Rogers returns.

UPDATE: The Detroit Free Press says Lawrence likely won’t sign with the Tigesrs.

The Baltimore Sun says Lawrence’s name has come up within the Orioles’ front office; they’re currently running with both Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Burres in the rotation.  That was not the plan.  Lawrence might not be any better than those two, but it makes sense to stockpile some arms when Steve Trachsel is your third starter.

UPDATE: According to the Washington Post, the O’s contacted Lawrence’s agent on Saturday. 

Also, the Denver Post lists the Padres, Mets, and Mariners as other possible suitors.  Perhaps we can add the Cardinals to that list in the wake of the news about Chris Carpenter’s surgery.

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Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers New York Mets San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Brian Lawrence

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Mariners To Release Jeff Weaver?

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 1:18pm CDT

According to John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:

"Speculation is mounting that Seattle is ready to swallow hard and release right-hander Jeff Weaver after his going 0-5 with a 15.35 ERA after five starts."

The handiwork of Scott Boras, an inflated pitching market, and playoff heroics earned Weaver the same one-year, $8.325MM deal he got from the Angels the previous offseason.  At when the Angels signed him, he was coming off a solid 14 win season.  The Ms signed him after he posted a 5.76 ERA in 31 starts.

I’d be surprised to see the Ms release Weaver.  Couldn’t they pay $6MM of his salary and virtually give him away to some NL team?  Even that would be better than releasing him.  Maybe the Padres would take a chance on him if the salary risk was minimal.

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Seattle Mariners Jeff Weaver

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Royals Have Arms To Spare

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 12:03pm CDT

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star discusses the Royals’ surplus of starting pitching with GM Dayton Moore in today’s article.  The Royals have Luke Hudson and Scott Elarton coming back from injuries very soon, so they may have an arm or two to spare.

The one obvious trade candidate right now is southpaw Odalis Perez, who turns 30 in June.  Elarton would come next, but he’s recovering from a torn labrum.  Perez at least has no health issues.  He simply has performance issues, with just 14 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.

Perez began throwing a sinker this year, and it’s at least helped him get his groundball rate up to where it was in L.A.  He deserves to be someone’s fifth starter, probably in the NL.  While he’s earning $7.75MM in the last year of his contract, the Dodgers covered most of that.  From what I can determine, an acquiring team would probably have to pay him around $2MM.

Clark Fosler gives his take on the team’s oddly configured roster over at Royals Authority.   

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Kansas City Royals Odalis Perez

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Mets Shopping For A Second Baseman?

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 10:11am CDT

According to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, the Mets are shopping for a second baseman with Jose Valentin expected to be out two months with a partially torn ACL.  Valentin would like to return in four or five weeks for the sake of his contract incentives.  However, Rick Wilton of Baseball Injury Report notes that the ligament can’t heal in six weeks and Valentin will likely play at less than 100% for the rest of the season. Who might be on the radar if the Mets are looking for more certainty?

With the Mets sporting at least a top-three NL offense (boy the NL East can really hit) Omar Minaya probably doesn’t need to make a major move here.  He could try to pluck a struggling Tadahito Iguchi from the White Sox.  Iguchi will reach free agency after this season and is sitting at .241/.351/.380.  His power stroke should come around.

You may recall the Mets’ strong attraction to Luis Castillo.  Should the Twins deem Alexi Casilla ready for full-time duty, they could shop Castillo in hopes of bringing in a good prospect before the veteran walks after this season.  Additionally, the Mets considered signing Mark Grudzielanek in the winter of 2005-06.  There’s no good reason for the Royals to hang onto him.

Baseball Prospectus’s John Perrotto lends another name to the discussion – he considers the Pirates’ Jose Castillo a possibility for Omar Minay.  Perrotto would know; he’s the team’s beat writer for the Beaver County Times.

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New York Mets Jose Valentin

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Angels Interested In Garrett Atkins

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 9:17am CDT

Last year, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins was the second-best hitter at his position, behind only Miguel Cabrera.  Atkins isn’t set to reach free agency until 2011, making him a very valuable commodity.  The Rockies had talks with him this offseason about a deal covering his arbitration years and first year of free agency, but no agreement could be reached.

Now, both the Denver Post and L.A. Times are reporting that the Angels are interested in trading for Atkins.  Troy E. Renck of the Post says Atkins’s name first came up during the Winter Meetings when the two clubs were discussing a Todd Helton deal.  Renck writes that Ervin Santana would be a must in any trade and that the Angels also have interest in Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker.  He also says Atkins is still considered a core member of the team, so a deal is unlikely.  I wonder if Bill Stoneman is trying to take advantage of a subpar start for Atkins – his defense hasn’t been pretty and his power has been MIA.

From the L.A. side, Mike DiGiovanna adds several players on the Halos’ radar:  Kevin Mench, Jacque Jones, Pat Burrell, Emil Brown, Morgan Ensberg, and Edwin Encarnacion.  DiGiovanna agrees that Santana is the top trading chip.  Santana could really blossom in the National League.  With Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton struggling and Brett Myers in the pen, the Phillies probably have the strongest need.  Starters Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley could be used if the Angels want to make a smaller deal.

As long as the Angels are making an all-out blitz for a third baseman, let’s speculate on some other possibilities.  Mike Lowell, Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock have all been rumored in the past; the Rangers clearly have the biggest need for a starter.  Santana, however, could be Brandon McCarthy all over again with his flyball tendencies.

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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Brad Hawpe Dustin Moseley Edwin Encarnacion Emil Brown Ervin Santana Garrett Atkins Jacque Jones Jeff Baker Joe Saunders Kevin Mench Morgan Ensberg Pat Burrell

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Rockies Still After Julian Tavarez

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2007 at 9:15am CDT

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Red Sox will shop Julian Tavarez once Jon Lester is ready to return.  The Rockies have maintained interest since at least last summer.  Tavarez, 34, tossed 120 innings for the Rox in 2000.  He makes $3.1MM this season and has a club option for $3.85MM in ’08.  That option becomes guaranteed if he makes 60 more appearances this year.

Lester will need to show that his forearm cramp is a non-issue before the Red Sox can move forward.  Lester won’t throw until Monday at the earliest.  A few days ago, Nick Cafardo named a slew of teams that could pursue Tavarez aside from the Rockies: the Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Marlins, and Reds.

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Boston Red Sox Colorado Rockies Julian Tavarez

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