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Archives for January 2008

Rockies Not Making Progress With Holliday

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Rockies star left fielder and Scott Boras client Matt Holliday is set to reach free agency after the 2009 season.  Team owner Dick Monfort weighed in on the situation:

I don’t know if we will be able to sign him.  It could always happen during the year, I guess, but that’s a distraction and we can’t have that. The chance of him becoming a free agent increases with each year that passes.

Boras’ thoughts on the topic:

Matt is happy in Colorado.  If they want to offer a one-year contract, that’s fine. If they want to offer him a franchise contract, like they have done in the past, we would review it at that time.

My guess is that the four-year, $60MM proposal the Rockies considered wouldn’t be seen as a "franchise offer" by Boras.  With the info we have now it looks like Holliday will get a free agent deal exceeding $100MM following the ’09 season.

One other Rockies note from Renck’s column – it sounds like the Rox might wait another year before seriously thinking about a long-term deal for Troy Tulowitzki.

Survey Results And Open Writer Positions

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I recently asked MLBTR readers to tell me how much they liked various site features on a scale of 1 to 10 (1 means they hate it, 10 they love it).  The results are in, with over 900 responses.  Let’s discuss, in order of your enjoyment.

  • Odds and Ends – Average Score: 8.01.  People seem to quite enjoy this feature and didn’t have suggestions to improve it.  It stays as is.
  • Needs and Luxuries – Average Score: 7.93.  Pretty high rating, but good ideas for improvement.  Here’s my plan for this feature for ’08.  I will do the entire series in October ’08, a team per day (it’s a slow hot stove month).  Then we will revisit each team in March of ’09, assessing how or if they addressed their needs.  As for 2007, I will do the remaining teams over the next few weeks so that every club gets equal attention.
  • GM Trade Profiles – 7.49.  These are cool but take a really long time to do, especially if the GM has been around a while.  Just a lot of research before I can even write about the GM.  So I will probably continue to do these sporadically.
  • Mailbag – 7.08.  People don’t seem to love the mailbag, relatively speaking.  Nonetheless maybe it can become a staple if I do it more regularly.  I am thinking about doing one every Wednesday.
  • Rumor Royalty – 6.46.  The most common feedback about this feature is that it can be boring, partially because I spread out the three or four questions into separate posts.  I will switch it to two posts per sportswriter after we finish the stuff in queue.  One post will announce the selection and also allow you to submit your own questions.  We’ll see how it goes with reader-generated questions – I’ll choose the best.  Then all the questions and answers for that writer will go into another post.  I still like this feature despite the lukewarm response – it’s instructive to see what a team expert thinks; these people often don’t get to put their valuable opinions in their stories.
  • One other note – I received about 300 inquiries from people willing to join the MLBTR team.  It will take me weeks to comb through, I will go about it carefully.  Thanks for the interest!

Rockies Inquired On Santana

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Courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, we knew on December 19th that the Rockies had inquired on Dan Haren.  On Monday Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News also quoted Rockies’ GM Dan O’Dowd as saying "We stuck our nose in on the Santana thing." (Hat tip to Aaron Gleeman for the link).

O’Dowd didn’t get far trying to acquire Johan Santana, because he prefers to play on the East Coast.  Perhaps a deal involving some combination of Franklin Morales, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart, and Dexter Fowler would’ve intrigued the Twins otherwise?  Here’s a look at an MLB.com Top 50 Prospects list compiled with votes from 20 members of the scouting community.  Morales ranks just a few spots below Jacoby Ellsbury.

Mets Re-Sign Valentin?

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UPDATE, 1-16-08 at 9:06am: Mark Hale of the New York Post quotes Valentin’s agent saying he has a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite with the Mets.  He can earn $1MM if he makes the club.  The Mets haven’t confirmed this yet.

FROM 1-8-08 at 2:57pm:

El Nuevo Dia is reporting that infielder Jose Valentin is close to re-signing with the Mets.  He talked to several teams, but decided to take a nonguaranteed backup role with New York.

A few months ago, MLB.com’s Marty Noble suggested the Mets would only re-sign Valentin if he was able to play the outfield.  Valentin dealt with a partially torn ACL and fractured tibia in ’07, and hopes to be 100% in February.

What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks

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At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been.  Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.

Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005.  That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.

Let’s start with the Fish.  They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston.  Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07.  Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal.  Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards.  Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field.  Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.

Moving on to the Rangers.  Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise).  Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs.  Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira.  In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06.  Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels.  Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club.  And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell?  Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs? 

Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake.  The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job.  Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins.  That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell.  The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.   

The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo.  The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life.  Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman.  Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett?  Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.

By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy.  Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.

I’m dizzy.  Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation?  Any juicy consequences I missed?

Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos

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Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today.  I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards.  You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.

Mayo On Fernando Martinez and Johan Santana

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Jonathan Mayo is a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently.  Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man."  Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.  I asked Mayo some questions for publication on MLBTR.

MLBTR: Where do you stand on Fernando Martinez?  Would the Mets regret trading him and a few other prospects for one year of Johan Santana?

Mayo: There’s always the risk when you trade a young player with so much upside potential that you’ll regret trading him, just like the Astros probably regret leaving Santana unprotected in the Rule 5 draft several years back. But I think that things work a little differently in a market like New York. There’s such pressure to win immediately and there’s the financial ability to fix things via free agency or trading for high-priced players in the future.

I think Martinez has the chance to be a very special player, but it could take several years for him to reach that potential. I’d love to see him become a star in New York, but I think the Mets would have to consider dealing him if they felt that Santana is the piece they need to get over the hump and back to the World Series. Besides, who says it’d be for just one year of Santana. I think that any of the teams who have been rumored to be in the Santana hunt would make a serious run at re-upping Johan for several years after 2008.

Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

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Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Reds.  I realize the timing of this series wasn’t ideal, doing a bunch and then tailing off.  It’s something I can improve next time around, but it still seems people would like to see the remaining teams reviewed.  Anyway, here’s how the Reds are set up:

C – Dave Ross
1B – Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
2B – Brandon Phillips
SS – Alex Gonzalez
3B – Edwin Encarnacion
LF – Adam Dunn
CF – Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper/Jay Bruce
RF – Ken Griffey Jr.

SP – Aaron Harang
SP – Bronson Arroyo
SP – Matt Belisle
SP – Homer Bailey
SP – Edinson Volquez/Johnny Cueto

Setup – David Weathers
Closer – Francisco Cordero

Needs:

The Reds had a middle of the pack offense in ’07, same as ’06.  Last year the Reds had below league-average offense at catcher and third base.  I think Encarnacion will be fine, so one need might be to upgrade over Ross behind the plate.  Would it make sense to acquire Michael Barrett for peanuts, to see if he can return to form?

The Reds have enough depth in center field to stand pat.  Even if Bruce needs a few more months in the minors, Freel can probably hold down the fort.

One could envision the ’08 Reds cracking 800 runs if everyone stays healthy in ’08, which would probably be top five in the league. 

Not shockingly, the Reds’ big need is on the run prevention side.  Let’s start with defense – they were third from the bottom in defensive efficiency in ’07.  Maybe a bit more of Gonzalez will help on that front, but the Reds are mostly locked in with their position players.  They are not in a position to give up offense for defense.

The Reds allowed 853 runs in ’07, 15th out of 16 NL teams.  Their bullpen was awful and the rotation was below average.  If the Reds push their runs allowed all the way down to 780, they’re still probably just an 83 win team.  Now, if they get the runs allowed down to 750, that’s 86 wins.  A dash of luck and they’re in the playoffs.  To allow 750 runs would be league average or maybe a touch better.

Cordero helps the Reds’ previously terrible pen, but this rotation isn’t good enough to get to 750 runs allowed.  The Mets were at the 750 level last year, the Dodgers the year before.  You generally need three solid 30-start guys, not two and a bunch of question marks.  The Reds have a huge incentive to get Erik Bedard – with him, they’re a playoff contender, without him they’re not.  They are a team on the fringe, and Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko won’t push them over the edge.  Add an ace, you can sniff 90 wins.

Dunn and Griffey might be gone after the ’08 season, and the Cordero signing was a win-now move.  Jonathan Mayo wouldn’t give up Bruce for Bedard, but that might be the only way the Reds make the playoffs this year.  It would be a huge gamble, and depends on whether the team is trying to win right now or in 2009-10.  Can’t have both.

Luxuries:

Bruce isn’t really a luxury, since the team traded Josh Hamilton and their corner outfielders may leave after ’08.  Trading near-MLB ready pitchers like Bailey and Cueto doesn’t help the win-now cause though.  Six years of Bruce is a ton to surrender, but Bedard is the ace they need.  A one-for-one offer should be seriously considered.

You could call guys like Hatteberg and Freel luxuries, but neither is going to net anything particularly useful.

Glaus Asked For Trade

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According to Buster Olney, Troy Glaus told J.P. Ricciardi several months ago that he’d like to be traded.  Apparently he really wanted to get away from artificial turf.

Olney says Ricciardi made no promises, and set about finding good value for Glaus.  Glaus had wanted to play for St. Louis for years, and Scott Rolen’s rift with Tony La Russa created an opportunity.

Latest On Bedard/Mariners Talks

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John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer jumps into the Erik Bedard fray with some new info.  Connecting a few dots – I’m speculating here – it seems possible that the Mets could move to the forefront on Bedard as the Mariners fade.  If the Mets pony up Fernando Martinez and some decent pitching depth, maybe Andy MacPhail would go for it.

  • Hickey says that with Adam Jones returning to action in Venezuela, "the Mariners have may given up on acquiring Bedard."
  • Nonetheless, according to Hickey, the Orioles "appear to be looking at" the Mariners’ Chris Tillman and Carlos Triunfel. 
  • The Orioles originally wanted Brandon Morrow, but that seems unlikely.  Hickey adds that Jeff Clement "may be off the table for the moment, too."  Clement didn’t seem to make a ton of sense for Baltimore anyway.

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