Eddie Bajek has been doing great work reverse-engineering the Elias rankings over at his blog, Detroit Tigers Thoughts. He’s now ranked catchers, first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters for both leagues.
An explanation of free agent draft pick compensation can be found here. For a team to get draft picks, they need to offer arbitration to their free agent and then have him decline and sign elsewhere. So it either has to be a player they wouldn’t mind having on a one-year deal, or a player who is a lock for a multiyear contract.
Looking at Eddie’s (unfinished) list, the following free agents are Type A or B and likely to net draft picks: Mark Teixeira (Braves), Raul Ibanez (Mariners), Milton Bradley (Rangers), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Pat Burrell (Phillies), Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks), and maybe Carlos Delgado (Mets). If, say, the Mariners re-sign Ibanez, the cost is his new contract as well as the two draft picks they could’ve had.
Several high-salary solid players probably will not be offered arbitration and therefore won’t land draft picks for the losing team: Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees), Bobby Abreu (Yankees), Garret Anderson (Angels), Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox), and Jason Giambi (Yankees). Hard to say how things will unfold with Brian Giles, who is a borderline Type A if the Padres decline his option. The Yankees won’t want to risk being stuck with Rodriguez, Abreu, or Giambi at their ’07 salaries or higher, so they probably won’t offer arbitration.
