Elias Type A/Type B Free Agents

All of the arbitration offers are in.  Here’s a list of which free agents were offered arbitration.  If these players decline the offer and sign elsewhere, the original club will get one or two draft picks.  There’s an additional "tax" on these Type A free agents, as you have to give up a pick to sign one.  For more about the process, click here.  For the full up-to-date free agent list, click here.

Type A (15 players)
A.J. Burnett
Orlando Cabrera
Juan Cruz
Brian Fuentes
Orlando Hudson
Raul Ibanez
Derek Lowe
Darren Oliver
Oliver Perez
Manny Ramirez
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Ben Sheets
Mark Teixeira
Jason Varitek

Type B (9 players)
Casey Blake
Milton Bradley
Paul Byrd
Jon Garland
Mark Grudzielanek
Brandon Lyon
Dennys Reyes
Brian Shouse
David Weathers

Surprisingly not offered arbitration:
Bobby Abreu
Joe Beimel
Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Braden Looper
Jamie Moyer
Randy Wolf
Kerry Wood

Teams have a chance to snag a supplemental draft pick if they offer arbitration to their Type B free agent and he signs elsewhere.  The risk is that the player could accept and leave the team with an unwanted financial burden.

Of the 33 Type B free agents, which do you think will be offered arbitration Monday?  Check the box next to those who will be offered arbitration, in your opinion.  Take the poll here, see the results here.

There are 27 Type A free agents.  To receive two draft picks as compensation, the player’s original team must offer arbitration.  If the player turns down the offer and signs elsewhere, the original team gets the picks.  If the player accepts the offer, the team is "stuck" with the player on a non-guaranteed one-year deal.  Arbitration decisions are due December 1st.

Let’s do a reader survey on whether arbitration will be offered for each Type A free agent.  Click the checkbox next to any player you predict will be offered arbitration.  Click here to take the survey, and here to view the results.

Here’s a list of the possible Type A and Type B free agents this winter, courtesy of ESPN and Keith Law.  A few changes to the previous estimates: Bob Howry is a Type A, while Milton Bradley, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Luis Ayala, Rudy Seanez, and Arthur Rhodes are Type Bs.

Type A

Bobby Abreu (Yankees)
Doug Brocail (Astros)
A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays)
Pat Burrell (Phillies)
Orlando Cabrera (White Sox)
Juan Cruz (Diamondbacks)
Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks)
Brian Fuentes (Rockies)
Brian Giles (Padres)
Bob Howry (Cubs)
Orlando Hudson (Diamondbacks)
Raul Ibanez (Mariners)
Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals)
Derek Lowe (Dodgers)
Damaso Marte (Yankees)
Jamie Moyer (Phillies)
Mike Mussina (Yankees)
Darren Oliver (Angels)
Oliver Perez (Mets)
Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
Edgar Renteria (Tigers)
Francisco Rodriguez (Angels)
C.C. Sabathia (Brewers)
Ben Sheets (Brewers)
Russ Springer (Cardinals)
Mark Teixeira (Angels)
Jason Varitek (Red Sox)
Kerry Wood (Cubs)

That’s 30 Type As, though Giles and Marte may have their options picked up and Mussina may retire.

Type B

Jeremy Affeldt (Reds)
Moises Alou (Mets)
Garret Anderson (Angels)
Luis Ayala (Mets)
Joe Beimel (Dodgers)
Casey Blake (Dodgers)
Hank Blalock (Rangers)
Milton Bradley (Rangers)
Paul Byrd (Red Sox)
Mike Cameron (Brewers)
Alan Embree (Athletics)
Eric Gagne (Brewers)
Jon Garland (Angels)
Luis Gonzalez (Marlins)
Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox)
Mark Grudzielanek (Royals)
Trevor Hoffman (Padres)
Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
Jeff Kent (Dodgers)
Paul Lo Duca (Marlins)
Braden Looper (Cardinals)
Mark Loretta (Astros)
Brandon Lyon (Diamondbacks)
Greg Maddux (Dodgers)
Trever Miller (Rays)
Miguel Olivo (Royals)
Brad Penny (Dodgers)
Dennys Reyes (Twins)
Arthur Rhodes (Marlins)
Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees)
Rudy Seanez (Phillies)
Brian Shouse (Brewers)
John Smoltz (Braves)
Frank Thomas (Athletics)
Salomon Torres (Brewers)
Juan Uribe (White Sox)
David Weathers (Reds)
Randy Wolf (Astros)
Gregg Zaun (Blue Jays)

That’s 36 Type Bs, though Cameron, Embree, Miller, Olivo, Penny, and Torres could have their options picked up and Alou, Griffey, Kent, and Maddux could retire.

Talking to a few people in the game, it seems that the Type A/B free agent quota depends on the number of Type A/Bs who file.  If 62 or fewer such players file (which is possible) then each team will have a quota of three Type A or B signings.  Regardless of that, teams are allowed to sign as many Type A/Bs as they lose.  As far as I can tell, the quota has never been an issue in the past.

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has his projections of the Elias rankings for National League second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops.

• Type A: Orlando Hudson.  Hudson will surely be offered arbitration from the D’Backs, and will likely decline in search of a multiyear deal.  The D’Backs could snag a first-round pick if the Cardinals, White Sox, or Mets sign him (among others).
• Tybe B: Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Mark Loretta.  Blake seems likely to get an arb offer and turn it down, resulting in a supplemental draft pick for the Dodgers if he leaves Los Angeles.
• Neither: Rafael Furcal, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Felipe Lopez, and many more.  Furcal, the best available shortstop, carries no draft pick compensation penalty (nor do the Type Bs).

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has Elias projections for American League second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops.

• Type A: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria.  Cabrera certainly gets an offer of arbitration and signs elsewhere.  The White Sox have to be hoping the Dodgers, Blue Jays, or Twins sign him.  The Tigers offering arbitration to Renteria is a borderline call – would they be OK with him accepting?
• Type B: Mark Grudzielanek, Juan Uribe.  The Royals, hoping to try someone new at second base, may not offer arb to Grudzielanek.  Uribe seems unlikely, as his salary in ’08 was high for a utility guy.

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has his National League 1B/OF Elias projections ready.

• Type A: Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell.  Manny has already agreed to decline an offer of arbitration, so the Dodgers are getting two picks if he leaves.  The D’Backs could end up with tons of picks, with Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz, and Brandon Lyon eligible for free agency.
• Type B: Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Cameron.  Alou and Gonzalez won’t be offered arbitration.  The Brewers could offer it to Cameron if they decline his option, if they believe he would seek a contract elsewhere.

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts presents his Elias rankings for American League first baseman/outfielders/DHs, who are all grouped together for this purpose.

• Type A: Mark Teixeira, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley.  All four will probably be offered arbitration and will decline.  Click here to see the unprotected first-round draft picks – teams may be rooting for their Type As to sign with these clubs.
• Type B: Garret Anderson, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas.  Hard to see an offer of arbitration to any of these three.