Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News has the latest on the Mets.
- The Mets are said to be 50-50 on whether to use internal catching options or sign Yorvit Torrealba or Rod Barajas. The current favorite to start is Omir Santos, projected to hit .247/.296/.359 by CHONE.
- The Mets are "very likely to add one more starting pitcher," writes Rubin. John Smoltz, Ben Sheets, and Jon Garland are the names under discussion. The Smoltz talks are described as "active dialogue." We learned earlier today that the A's appear to be a top competitor for Sheets, while SI's Jon Heyman believes the Rangers and Mariners are also in the mix. Heyman tweets that the Mets "don't appear to be the frontrunner for Sheets at the moment."
- Rubin considers a Carlos Delgado re-signing to be "not overly likely" due to concerns about Delgado playing first base. Instead, the Mets could bring Fernando Tatis back.
Sadly, I can definitely see the Mets front office passing on Sheets in favor of Smoltz.
as sad as that sounds yes they would say we know he had a good workout but it was a workout. We do not know how that will translate into game situations. Something like that will be the Mets excuse on not signing Sheets.
Good point. minaya/Wilpons wait too long
out of thoes 3 i would rather have garland. he has ben more consistant then the other 2 plus he will eat some important innings.
while garland is consistent, adding him is not likely to get the mets to the playoffs. Only Sheets has that potential.
Haven’t we forgot that we can trade for Meche of KC or Brian Bannister from KC or Bronson Arroyo? why does it have to be a free agent?
who are we giving up for meche? didnt they want pagan before they signed an OFer? plus its not like we can spare pagan at the moment. sheets costs money, its likely we would have to give up prospects for the others.
Bannister? No thanks. As stated above, we have money–let’s spend it–no need to surrender prospects.
Sheets
I’m all for the Mets making good risks. Sheets could be an anchor for the rotation. Yes, health is an issue, but his upside is huge.
Delgado, on the other hand, is a bad risk. Even if he’s healthy, he’ll play poor defense, and his bat is a question mark (and his bat against lefties is worthless).
sheets is a possible ace and its a risk they need to take. consistency should be for a 3-4 starter. if garland is the 2 we’re just replacing what we already have in pelfrey with a 3-4 starter. if garland is getting less than 10mil sign both garland and sheets and hold on to the prospects unless they plan on making a trade for arroyo/harrang AND phillips
Unless KC wants Castillo as a slary dump trade for Meche we have nothing to deal – all our players are hurt or underperforming
Actually the reds are not going to trade Arroyo because there ace Volquez is pretty much out the whole year and he is there only consistent starter, now maybe harang but that would be up to you mets fan to chose. And Smoltz can still start im not sure why you guys are underestimating him he did great for the cardinals . And they NEED Carlos because if wright’s power dont return there screwed. There catchers are not going to do anying at least at get Rod because he can hit
English please.
I would pass on Harang and Bajaras. Would rather go with Santos/Blanco, while developing Thole to eventually take over the spot.
santos is nothing he pretty much sucks and harang can still pitch it just seems everytime he does good the reds dont score him runs he is a fly ball pitcher and citi field is big so im not sure why you would totally pass on him, and i would rather have jose molina start because he is a beast at defense served as Aj Burnett’s personal catcher, he is better thank santos and blanco, i still think bajaras would better than the platoon
Jose Molina is better than Santos and Blanco? Really?
He batted .217 last year and is .235 for his career. Santos had 7 homeruns last year, molina has 20 in his career…
Time to think big. We have Neise as a fallback 5th starter
true
Smoltz they want as a long reliever….Sheets will be the number 2….as hurt as Delgado is…I tghink it would be stupid tgo not sign him….the Mets need a Left-handed power bat right now and Murphy I can’t count on
Not if you read about the scouting reports that say he has ZERO range, can’t play his position, and is LIMPING on the field. Besides, if he can hit the ball but needs a fork lift to get him to first base, what’s the point?
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Delgado
Franceour
Santos
Santana
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez
Smoltz
Green
Marshall
Felciano
Igarishi
Escobar
KRod
the its not that bad we need power and if wright comeback to hit for power and we sign delgado were gonna be great
omir santos?not too bad and e have blanco that its very good defensively
I love the Mets but r u kidding me?
why is everyone saying wright couldnt hit for power last year? its kind of hard when you have no one in the line up protecting him one bit…
now delgado can’t handle first base? first base?! it seems like the biggest theme this offseason has been using UZR (or whatever else) to prove everyone except adrian beltre, the greatest third baseman of all time, sucks at defense. citing: ankiel, bay, damon, delgado, dye, edmonds…
I think they’re going off what they saw of his workouts, not his UZR. But you’re right, the focus has been on defensive metrics more than usual this off season.
yeah, but apart from adrian beltre, literally the best defender in the history of this or any other sport, i think the consensus has been that everyone sucks at defense. which, in turn, has caused me to reach the following consensus: everyone except adrian beltre sucks at evaluating defense.
and, just to be clear, carlos delgado’s UZR from last year was higher than it was in 2008, 2006, 2005, and 2003, all years that no one really seemed to mind how carlos delgado handled first base.
one more thing: a list of first baseman with lower/worse UZR’s last year than carlos delgado:
mark teixeira
lance berkman
carlos pena
nick johnson
billy butler
doesn’t really seem like people really mind any of those guys (except maybe butler) at first base.
Delgado only played 26 games last season.
yeah, but his UZR rates were fairly in-line with career norms. and i haven’t really heard about delgado being woefully bad at first base until UZR for got all en vogue this offseason.
UZR is a poor metric for 1B’s and C’s to begin with, but I think most of the anti-Delgado at 1B stuff is being based off reports from winter ball. When scouts are using phrases like, “absolutely zero range”, “limping out there”…that’s not good.He was fine defensively prior to the injury.
that’s a fair point. i acknowledge that in delgado’s case there might be some real defensive shortcomings. i guess i’ve just become a little perturbed by the sabermetric fanboys using the UZR as the latest stat-du-jour to suggest every free agent signee this offseason has been a dreadful fielder. but maybe i’m making that up. if the reports on delgado are observational, that’s an entirely different matter and i stand corrected.
Or could it just be that the Mets happened to focus players with poor UZR’s by chance? When the debate was initially Bay vs. Holliday, one of the big debates was that Holliday was better because his UZR was higher, which is fair. I use UZR a lot, but I think it specifically undersells Bay a bit because Fenway’s LF is so strange, but its still a stretch to say he’s a quality defensive player, just probably not as awful as UZR makes him seem. They don’t even run UZR for catchers, so complaints about Molina’s defense had nothing to do with that. UZR is unkind to Francoeur, but he’s a unique case where +/-. the other “en vogue” defensive metric completely disagree. And one of the major points about first base that’s been made was that Daniel Murphy had one of the highest UZR’s in the NL among first baseman, its his bat that’s a problem for the position.
i don’t feel like i disagree with anything you said. i feel as if defensive metrics have a long way to go before they’re as sturdy as people pretend they are. you’re mentions of bay and francoeur are perfect examples of this-how different measures of defensive prowess can contradict each other.my complaint is not specifically with the mets, but with the absolute certainty some people have had this offseason when stating that players like bay, damon, and dye will butcher any fielding responsibilities given to them.people seem to be a lot more tolerant of a high-ERA “innings eater” like doug davis than they are of a low-UZR “at-bat eater” like jermaine dye.
I haven’t looked at metrics on Delgado, and don’t plan to. Muggi is spot-on about the main issue with Delgado: it’s all coming from the scouting reports about him from winter ball. I can’t speak for anyone else but from everything I have read and heard, scouts all concur that Delgado can no longer play his position. He can’t move, he possesses no range whatsoever, he limps, and he looks stiff. Sad as it is to say, he appears to have crossed over the threshold and become strictly DH material. Sounds like he’s headed back to the AL.
i don’t doubt it. i didn’t mean to sound like a complete delgado-apologist. i guess i’ve just been a little frustrated with the confidence people have in some (in my opinion) very sketchy defensive metrics. i’m also just saying… people are a lot more sympathetic to doug davis’s performance on the mound than they are to what jermaine dye could do in left field.but i don’t doubt that delgado kinda sucks at first.
The thing I really love about UZR is that it puts the common run denominator on defense. If everything gets quantified to the same scale, it becomes much easier to understand how the composite stats are put together. wOBA is another good example. Each element of wOBA is quantified into a run value. In the end, it makes everything very easy to just sum up and even convert to a win scale rather than a run scale. Is UZR perfect? Of course not. But its by far the best and most consistent method we have of quantifying defense, unless we’re professional scouts getting paid to watch every play. But just like with any composite and complicated statistic, its always important to do the due diligence and understand/question the assumptions present.
sign washburn,garland and mike jacobs or trade for randy ruiz(no joke the guy has pop)
i will take garland, if we sign Sheets as well. Pass on washburn and jacobs.
not me there is a 99.99 percent that sheets its not going to starts 25+ games in his carrer never
I’ll still take that chance. We aren’t getting another guy with ace potential anywhere else.
WELLL its better 10 starts from sheets than 32 of perez
You mean “there is a 99.99 percent that Sheets is not going to start 25+ games in his career” – AGAIN. He already did it for three seasons: 2002-2004. After that is when he started jumping the shark.
Garland as ‘savior?’ Man…it’s gonna be a long summer – and it’s not even spring yet.
Yes, Fernando Tatis’ mighty bat will compensate for the lack of legitimate hitter like Carlos Delgado.
You can afford weaker defense at first if it means taking a guy like Daniel Murphy and his OPS+ of 95 out of the lineup in favor of Delgado.
Plus he’s sitting at 473 career home runs, and fans love the 500 club. Nice sub-storyline for the season.
i’m sure delgado will get better defensively as time goes on and if he is capable i want him back.
Delgado is a DH
Look, Delgado was never a great 1B. He was effective within his limited range but a lot of plays that technically should have been his had to be made by the 2B. At this point, if he is less than he was there’s no point in signing him. One leaping or diving play would probably finish him for the season, and Castillo’s range at 2B is declining. I love Delgado and his bat but bringing him back is a losing proposition.
The last time Delgado made a leap or a dive for anything he was playing with the Blue Jays. The guy has the cleanest uniform in all of baseball.
Well I’ve seen him dive a FEW times (although probably measurable in inches), but your point is a good one. It’s not like he’s a familiar face on Web Gems!
bring delgado hes bad defensively but who cares he always has been bad , bring hudson to help delgado and sign garland and washburn or bedard i dont know do something minaya!!!
Smoltz will never play for a team like the Mets. I foresee them getting Garland
i hope ur right bc Smoltz is done
“Smoltz will never play for a team like the Mets.”
See: Glavine, Tom
I don’t know about that. Smoltz’s interest for the Mets was well documented last year before he signed with Boston.
While I’m not in favor of signing Delgado, if it means we’re going to sign Tatis instead, I’m all for signing Delgado. Don’t get me wrong–I don’t want Delgado–but Tatis is just completely worthless. A platoon of Murphy/Tatis at 1B will work just about as well as that Murphy/Tatis LF platoon at the beginning of last season.
How about Garko? Let him fight for the 1B job with Murphy
There’s no legitimate reason to sign Tatis over Garko.
Besides the fact that Tatis had better numbers last year while playing LF, RF, 1B, 2B, SS and 3B.
How well did he play those positions?
Tatis was better by 2 points of OPS+. Tatis doesn’t belong anywhere but 1B. He only played MIF out of desperation and the Mets don’t need anyone else to play the OF or 3B. Garko is also younger and I would rather have him playing more often than Tatis.
Why would they not need anyone to play 3B?
Also, Tatis actually according to limited sample had a very acceptable UZR score at every position he played.
Garko had a negative UZR in the OF and a positive one at 1B but that was the first time ever for him. For his career he is -10.5 at 1B.
I would be ok with either but to say: “There’s no legitimate reason to sign Tatis over Garko.” Ignores facts.
The tatis part is media speculation. We have not talked to his agent.
Right, I know. But considering the Mets handed him a two-year deal in the past, and Omar’s love affair with the guy, it’s not out of the question that there is mutual interest.
I realize Sheets is a huge injury risk on a team full of injury risks but it makes sense. The team cannot afford to deal any of the few prospects they have and Sheets will only cost $$$$ for 1 year and I believe he will not cost a draft pick. make him the best 1 yr offer in the market with the best vesting option. Also, sign Barajas, he is the best defensive option available at catcher. Time to Spend $$$$ to make $$$$$$$$
I’d stick w/ Santos and Blanco. Though if Omar is able to sign Sheets, I’d consider trying to get Sheets’ personal catcher, Chad Moeller (who signed a minor league contract w/ the Orioles) and can’t be much worse than Santos.
Gotta figure the Mets can offer more money than the A’s, since they didn’t use money on Molina or Pineiro. I’d also like them to sign Wang or Smoltz, if healthy. There’s no reason Maine should be guaranteed a spot on the rotation.
Just say no to Delgado, he’ll be out by May spending the guaranteed money he swindled from the Wilpons.
Since no one seems to want Damon. I’d def try to sign him to split time w/ Murphy and Frenchy. If Beltran is going to be out for the season, I’d consider letting Damon splitting time with Pagan in CF. His defense would be horrible but he’s good for Citi Field, offensively.
Hmmm you sound familiar. Do I know you?
Where is Pat Misch in all this? Is he still on our roster? He can back up Feliciano in the pen.
Did you write that with a staright face?
You make it seem like I said “have him platoon at 1B with Murphy”. How many other in house LHP options do we have for the pen?
None. Neise is a starter.
I think the term I’d use here is “filler material” – and only in dire situations.
For the 3rd year in a row Minaya is waiting until the end of the off season to upgrade the rotation. I hate that strategy. So far he is 1 for 2. He got lucky in 08′ with Johan, struck out in 09′ when he re-segned Ollie b/c the Braves went to 4 years with Lowe (a deal they painfully regret now). 09′ will make or break his job – he should sign Sheets, it’s a big risk but its the only one that will save his job.
Hmmm, so how did waiting in 2009 hurt them? You said they were basically waiting out Lowe and were forced to sign Perez but yet the Braves regret the Lowe deal. I would say that waiting did not help or hurt them last off-season.
Lowe is much better than Ollie he’s just not a 15mil a year pitcher
True, but again, did it hurt them to wait? Should they have outbid the Braves for Lowe?
Passing on Lowe was good but bidding against themselves for Ollie was terrible. 1yr option like Wolf was available
Well…you’re kind but Omar was on track to sign Pérez before the Braves snapped up Lowe. Even the newspapers had it right when they reported that between the two, he was most likely to sign Pérez. I remember Omar saying something about how lefties are slower to mature, and that he felt Pérez should be coming into his prime right about then. Infamous last words.
Terrible signing
Yeah…I try never to think about it while I’m eating.
People are crazy if they think Sheets at $10m + incentives + player option is really the best move.
Garland, Washburn, Smoltz are hardly exceptional pitchers. But, they do eat innings (at least Garland and Washburn) and provide some sorely needed depth. What happens to the Mets if they blow their cash on Sheets and the guy starts 10 games? That’s a heck of a lot more likely than him starting 30 games.
You would think that the lesson learned from 09 is to have a strong bench and depth. Now you want to gamble away your remaining money on a guy that has one of the most checkered injury histories in baseball?
I’m late to the conversation, but I like where it’s heading…
Smoltz – Only if he’s coming cheap, but we know he would be motivated against the Braves.
Washburn – I haven’t heard much about this guy signing anywhere. This would be the one to pounce on and sign to the ever-so-popular incentive laden deal with a second year club option. If you can do this deal first, you have a platform to sign…
Wang or Sheets – I view each of them in the same light. High risk, high reward signings. If you get a healthy Wang, he’s a lock in the rotation for a little bit longer than Sheets, so that’s who I would rather see but…
The point here should be quantity. They should sign at least two more starters and start with seven, eight guys for the five slots. Niese can start at AAA and we sent Figuroa down and he cleared waivers last time, so what if he can’t do it again. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.
And really? Are we so concerned about power from the catcher’s position? We’re not talking about Mauer, McCann or Martinez. I’m fine with Santos/Blanco until Thole is ready to take over.
I’m with you on the pitchers in quantity concept. Definitely the way to go, considering the team’s needs, AND what’s left on the market. Still, about seeing Wang & Sheets in the same light, I don’t know. Prolonged injury is one thing but didn’t Wang have control issues too? If so, can you (and others) be sure that all of that is attributable to injury?Also, I suspect folks are talking “power from the catchers” because suddenly the major sources most of us were expecting it from are goners (Beltrán out for a chunk of the season, Molina signed with the Giants, and Delgado is fielding like a marble statue these days so his return looks doubtful). So now everyone’s grasping around looking for anything they can find. It’s desperation.
i wouldn’t mind tatis till the allstar break and then go and make a move for pena..But a full year of tatis just can’t happen. If the mets sign smoltz it will be a really bad move he’s 42 move on can’t pitch. As for cathing henry will teach omir how to call a game hopefully so im not that rly worried.
Mets sign sheets and use him since allstarbreak like pedroo did this year
Best move they can d tru?>
That kind of strategy can only work if the player plans to hold out until the All Star break. Sheets is looking to get his deal nailed down NOW. That’s why he did the pitching demo last week. I don’t see him waiting too long, especially since the A’s are in on him now. Rangers too.
yes i know but you dont think that he can work that way for a playoff contender team
Could he? Sure. Will he? No, because it will cut his paycheck in at least half.
With his upside, some team is going to pay him for a full year.
In theory? Sure he could! Anybody with a decent arm could. However, the reality is that he’s not going to wait that long if he can help it, and none of the teams chasing him look to be contenders at this point. Besides, like Muggi said, he’s looking for $$$, and he’ll get more of it starting a season with somebody than jumping in mid-season and receiving a pro-rated salary.
Listen to you people! Either way you are screwed! Even if Tom Seaver in his prime comes back, you are not going to the layoffs – let alone Ben “i can’t make it a full season” Sheets. The Mets have the Money, they actually made money in that Madoff sceme – so spend it. WHY HAVE THEY NOT BEEN SPENDING?!?
smoltz for long man…. doubt smoltz would take that role though.
Sign Barajas
Garland is OK but Sheets is worth the risk. Neise will be the fall back starter
What about Misch. Did not do poorly last year.
This is exactly why Sheets IS worth the risk. Because the Mets have the benefit of a mid-rotation SP prospect who is essentially major league ready. Every projection system released so far has Niese rated better than Garland. What’s the point of adding an inferior pitcher to block a superior one? Niese offsets the risk of a guy like Sheets, at least to a degree. The standard for signing a pitcher right now needs to be that he is clearly better than Niese, which Sheets is, and some risk is affordable, especially if they figure they can get Figeuroa (who also projects better than Garland) or Nieve through waivers and into Triple-A again. Then you have at least one guy to offset Maine’s risk and at least one guy to offset Sheets’ risk. I could very easily see SP slots dedicated to Sheets+Figgy and Maine+Niese yielding 200 innings of 4.00 FIP.
I 100pct agree
dreamer!
Fangraphs listed projections.
Player A:
James: N/A
CHONE: 3.89 FIP, 114 IP
Marcel: 3.86 FIP, 80.0 IP
Fans: 3.72 FIP, 133.0 IP
Player B:
James: 4.04 FIP, 118.0 IP
CHONE: 4.23 FIP, 132.0 IP
Marcel: 4.09 FIP, 74.0 IP
Fans: N/A
Player C:
James: 4.42 FIP, 53.0 IP
CHONE: 4.29 FIP, 156.0 IP
Marcel: 4.47 FIP, 83.0 IP
Fans: N/A
Player D:
James: 4.56 FIP, 216 IP
CHONE: 4.48 FIP, 186 IP
Marcel: 4.56 FIP, 182.0 IP
Fans: 4.60 FIP, 193.0 IP
If you could have a combination of pitchers A-C to fill 200 innings, or just Pitcher D to fill 200 innings, which would you choose? I used FIP since some of these guys are free agents, so defense neutral makes more sense than going with ERA.
In case you haven’t figured it out, Player A=Ben Sheets, Player B=Jon Niese, Player C=Nelson Figueroa, and Player D=Jon Garland
Sheets injury history really isn’t THAT marred, at at the very least, his recent injury was clear. Flexor Tendon surgery is becoming pretty routine in baseball, and there are many cases of pitchers having it and returning to full strength very quickly (one example: Billy Wagner), which seemed to be the indication from Sheets’ throwing session. He’s always been very effective when healthy.
Niese was lights out in Triple-A last year, got better as the year went on, is already throwing off a mound, and didn’t have an arm injury. There’s no reason to expect he won’t be able to pick up where he left off, and where he was before was on his way to becoming arguably the second best pitcher on the Mets current depth chart, and no worse than fourth best.
Figgy may have been around the world in the last decade of his professional career, but that doesn’t change anything about how effective he’s been the last two years, especially last year. He was absolutely dominant in Triple-A, not just good, and he was very adequate when he pitched in the majors. He may not be as likely as Garland to hit 200 innings, but he is likely to be more effective when he pitches, and there’s no reason to think he can’t pitch a full healthy season. His biggest weakness is that he’s somewhat fly-ball prone, but that’s exactly the kind of weakness that can be diminished in citi-field. He still had a 7.55 K/9 last year and a K/BB of nearly 2.50 in 70 big league innings, supported by a K/BB of nearly 4.00 in Triple-A. Plus all three projection systems think he’ll be more effective than Garland, and there’s no problems with accounting for injuries here.
All Garland really has going for him is innings totals. He doesn’t miss bats, so he’s incredibly reliant on his defense, which wasn’t exactly a strong suit for the Mets last year. He gets some groundballs, but he’s by no means dominant in this regard. He’s a strike-thrower, I’ll give him that, which helps him keep his innings total high. But to me, 100 innings of Sheets and 100 innings of Niese looks much, much more palatable than 200 innings of Garland.
If the Mets are going to add a pitcher, it needs to be a pitcher who is likely to be more effective than Figgy at the very least, and preferably more effective than Niese as well, otherwise they’re just throwing money away. Sheets fits this bill, and his risk is offset by having capable minor league depth.
Yes – except the way I curse, even a mouthful of unintelligible gibberish is unmistakeable. Like with a good defensive play, it’s all in the hands!!
Oh…and that’s “alleged” peanut butter & banana sandwiches for you… :-p
nice insight and theory. i agree 100%. while innings is important, you can get 100 from niese and 100 from sheets which is probably going to be better than 200 from garland. reiterating what you just said but i think thats a very important part
What about Niese he was pitching great last yaer till he got hurt. Anyone know his health status?
Excellent points. Sign Barajas. We need all the D we can get with Beltran out, Reyes coming back and Castillo at 2B. I mean being strong up the middle is a baseball must. Also, sign Hudson time o upgrade
yeah let’s wait until only 1 starter is left an lets overpay him … great strategy… moronic
So true