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The Red Sox’ 2011 Rotation

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 2, 2010 at 9:52am CDT

The Red Sox have perhaps the most recognizable rotation in baseball. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka have won a combined 545 games, two of them have pitched no-hitters, five have made All-Star teams and all six are under team control for 2011.

There are no guarantees for any big league rotation, no matter how well-established, and the Red Sox are no exception. Lackey's first season in Boston has been a difficult one; no American Leaguer has allowed more hits and Lackey's ERA (4.60) is higher than it has been in years. Beckett told WEEI that the Red Sox are in a "pretty frustrating" situation and fans hoping for an ERA better than 6.21 from the right-hander surely agree (Beckett's peripherals, it must be noted, remain strong). Meanwhile, Lester and Buchholz have been tremendous and Matsuzaka and Wakefield have pitched as expected.

Those six pitchers have started all but four Red Sox games this year, but the team may have to rely on a more diverse collection of arms in 2011. That shouldn't be a problem for Boston, because they have a number of younger starters ready or nearly ready to contribute in the major leagues.

First of all, there's Felix Doubront, the 22-year-old left-hander who is now pitching well out of Boston's bullpen. Before the Red Sox called him up, Doubront posted a 2.81 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 as a starter in the upper minors. And though Doubront is a reliever now, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Alex Speier of WEEI that could change.

"We see him long term as a starter, but like a lot of starting pitchers, the first stage of his big league career might be as a reliever, especially in this organization,” Epstein said.

Another Red Sox reliever, Michael Bowden, climbed the minor league ladder as a starter and could return to the rotation if a need arises. While Bowden has proven himself in the minors, a couple other young starters likely need some more seasoning. Junichi Tazawa is returning from Tommy John surgery, but he should be able to contribute in the majors if he can return to his 2009 form. Casey Kelly, another top prospect, has seen his walk rate and ERA jump at AA, so he will likely need more time in the minors. Another AA starter, Kyle Weiland, has pitched well for Portland and could become a consideration for the Red Sox.

These minor leaguers will, in all likelihood, have to wait their turn. Boston has six major league starters under team control for 2011, so their rotation appears set. Don’t expect the Red Sox to bid on free agent starters like they did last year (Lackey) and the year before (John Smoltz, Brad Penny). Unless they offer Buchholz an extension, the Red Sox probably aren’t going to present any starters with proposals this winter. Even though it’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox, the organization has a strong group of starters and potential starters for 2011.

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2011 Rotations Boston Red Sox

Poll: Strasburg Or Chapman
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Clay Buchholz: Extension Candidate
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141 Comments

  1. NYY92

    15 years ago

    hate to say it,but the red sox have a great rotation when healthy and pitching up to their potential.good group going into the 2011 season

    Reply
    • Pasta Diving

      15 years ago

      Lester and Buchholz are legit number 1s. Lackey and Becket are overpaid injury risks. Dice BB and Wakefield are washed number 5s at best. Red Sox do have a good rotation gong into 2011 but it’s nothing spectacular.

      Reply
      • $1529282

        15 years ago

        Buchholz with a 4.13 xFIP, 3.64 FIP, and a middling mark of 6.2 K/9 doesn’t have me sold as an ace at all. He doesn’t even have particularly strong control (3.38), and it’s not very likely that he sustains his near-80% strand rate or sub-6% HR/FB (after 14% and 15% the past two years).

        Buchholz is a good pitcher, but he’s not as good as his numbers right now indicate.

        Reply
      • bjsguess

        15 years ago

        Beckett and Lackey are overpaid injury risks for the majority of 2010. However, that is a pretty silly blanket statement to make about their future projections.

        Between 2005 and 2009 Lackey had exactly ONE year where his xFIP was above 4.00. Same goes with Beckett. If you believe in WAR – both players have had several seasons within the last 4 where they exceeded $20m of value.

        I do agree that both earn a little too much but it’s nothing egregious.

        Reply
      • Guest

        15 years ago

        Come on, man. Lester yes, Buchholz no way. He’s having a solid season. That’s about it for the moment. As it currently stands, Buchholz is a solid 3/4.

        Reply
        • Evan Look

          15 years ago

          He’s a little better than you give him credit for. On many teams he would be an ace or a number 2 pitcher. It’s only because he is on the Red Sox that he is considered a 3 or 4. He would be a 3 or 4 on like 5 teams in the majors including the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, maybe Rangers, and maybe the Braves.

          Reply
        • brian mcgahan

          15 years ago

          Lol a solid #3 or #4? That means there is 90-120 pitchers better than Buchholz. Yeah, his numbers are a bit misleading, but look at the adjustments he has made since the All Star break last year. The guy is learning how to pitch and keeps getting better, there is no reason to think he won’t keep improving…he clearly hasn’t hit his ceiling.

          Reply
      • NYY92

        15 years ago

        wow really?
        lackey and becket are having bad seasons,besides beckets ERA,as indicated in this posting are good,lackey is having a decent season in his first season away from anehiem its gonna take some getting used to. hop off the red sox hatorade dude its ok to admit a team you hate has some good pieces

        Reply
    • Dave_Gershman

      15 years ago

      Yeah really.

      Being a huge Baseball fanand not the biggest Red Sox fan, I have to say this…I can’t want until their rotation is Beckett Lester Bucholz Lackey and Kelly! I can’t wait!

      Reply
      • Pasta Diving

        15 years ago

        Lackey and Becket would age by the time Kelly is ready ( 5.31 ERA in AA this year, he would need at least 1 1/2 more year in minors)

        Reply
        • Dave_Gershman

          15 years ago

          He will be up some time next season.

          Reply
          • Guest

            15 years ago

            No chance. Guy is still what 17 or something? I’m being sarcastic, but you’re not going to see Kelly probably until late summer 2012, yes 2012, at best.

            Reply
            • Dave_Gershman

              15 years ago

              sept call up 11

              Reply
              • grant77

                15 years ago

                Kelly has been horrid this year and his stuff has never been that overwhelming. I’ll eat my hat if we see him in 2011, he’s not ready and may never be.

                Reply
                • Evan Look

                  15 years ago

                  I don’t think you can really call him horrid. He is, I think, one of the 3 youngest who played AA ball this year. He is at a very advanced level for his age. His stuff is much better than you give him credit for. Check out his scouting report at soxprospects.com. I do agree though that he most likely won’t be on the Sox at all in ’11 but there is a chance he will especially if he figures everything out next year and dominates.

                  Reply
                  • Brian Culpin

                    15 years ago

                    I wasn’t going to waste my time, but you hit the nail on the head.

                    Reply
            • woadude

              15 years ago

              not is the Mayans are correct about their calendar lol.

              Reply
            • woadude

              15 years ago

              not if the mayans are right about their calendar.

              Reply
          • woadude

            15 years ago

            Tazawa will be in the rotation before Kelly, just my opinion.

            Reply
            • brian mcgahan

              15 years ago

              No chance…Doubront is next in line if anything..Tazawa won’t be more than a 6/7 starter and temporary fill in like he was last year.

              Reply
            • Dave_Gershman

              15 years ago

              Maybe. but that’s not the point. Tazawa is recoveing from Tommy John and has ML expirence while Jeft doesn’t.

              Reply
      • woadude

        15 years ago

        your going to have to be patient with Kelly, he is finding it not so easy in AA.

        Reply
        • Dave_Gershman

          15 years ago

          I’m aware of that. Mike moustakas had a dreadful 09 and now he is one of the top 5 prospects in Baseball.

          Reply
      • Evan Look

        15 years ago

        The Sox are in a great position right now with Ranaudo and Kelly coming up. They can bring in a big bat with one (if necessary) and have the other take over the #5 spot in the rotation once Daisuke leaves. And if they live up to their potentials they could possibly have a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher as their #5.

        Reply
        • Dave_Gershman

          15 years ago

          don’t forget about Brandon Workman. Also Kyle Weiland is a nice prospect. Plus, they took some really good position players in this past draft. Sean Cotle’ Garin Checchni, and Kolbrin Vitek.

          Reply
          • jwredsox

            15 years ago

            Just saying I have a mancrush on Vitek. That’s all.

            Reply
            • Dave_Gershman

              15 years ago

              Cool?

              Reply
            • Dave_Gershman

              15 years ago

              Cool?

              Reply
          • Evan Look

            15 years ago

            Oh I didn’t forget but those two I mentioned are the studs.

            Reply
        • Dave_Gershman

          15 years ago

          I meant Sean Coyle

          Reply
    • hawkny1

      15 years ago

      Say goodbye to Tim Wakefield and hello to Anthony Ranaudo….

      Reply
  2. Nick

    15 years ago

    I wonder if there could be a potential trade between the Mets and Sox for Beltran and some SP? Beltran is owed $18M next year, so it’s a substantial amount but I’m sure if the Sox were looking for an OF the Mets would kick the tires and see if they could get some SP from Boston.

    Reply
    • UAJ

      15 years ago

      you’re kidding…right?
      Sox have more important things to deal with…..
      $ coming off the books, current FAs to deal with, etc.
      why waste time on an oft-injured Beltran at $18M

      Reply
    • $1529282

      15 years ago

      Sox will have Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew healthy next year. Closest match is Dice-K’s $20MM over the next two years, and I’m sure the Sox would rather have him than Beltran at this point. Lackey’s contract looks bad, but again I doubt they’ve given up on him after one season.

      Beltran’s salary is just not going to get unloaded for anything unless New York eats almost all of it.

      Reply
      • boston3party123

        15 years ago

        Ellsberry and cameron are not good they should get rid of both of them

        Reply
        • Dave_Gershman

          15 years ago

          They are both very good players but injury prone. I would definetly have them in the Sox’s starting plans next season. Players get injured…What can you do?

          Reply
          • boston3party123

            15 years ago

            ya but cameron is getting old and i guess u can keep ellsberry but he dosent have that much pop in his bat u know what i mean?

            Reply
            • $1529282

              15 years ago

              Cameron is old, so he’s bad? He’s still one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball and slugged at least .450 in five of the past six seasons until this year when he was injured.

              Ellsbury is overrated, but just because he doesn’t hit for power doesn’t make him a bad player either.

              Reply
              • boston3party123

                15 years ago

                No but hes not lived up to the contract they gave him…. in the off season why cant they go out and get jayson werth to play center field instead of cameron

                Reply
                • $1529282

                  15 years ago

                  Werth will cost Boston their first-round pick and require a 4-year deal. I’d say odds are that he ultimately won’t live up to it either. There’s a far better bet that Cameron lives up to the $7.25MM he’s due next year than Werth living up to the $48MM-$60MM he’s going to get through free agency.

                  Reply
                  • Potrzeba

                    15 years ago

                    werth is not worth the contract, we old and he would be adjusting to a new league. he would turn into the jason bay for the mets. i would rather trade for either, kemp.

                    Reply
            • Dave_Gershman

              15 years ago

              I see what you are saying, but Power isn’t ellsbury’s game. He is expected to get on base, steal bases, and play a good defensive left field…He does all 3 when healthy.

              Reply
        • NYY92

          15 years ago

          ellsburry isnt good!in what world do you live in?id love to be there.
          i hate when people do that for real,the guy turns into one of the best centerfielders defensivley and steals 120 bases in two seasons and turns into your leaoff guy,hits for a good average,everyones calling him god and all and then the guy gets hurt and everyone says oh hes gardbedge,shutup kid you know nothing about baseball im sorry.

          Reply
          • boston3party123

            15 years ago

            No one ever called ellsberry god lol and ya hes such a great center fielder to bad he plays left field with a shitty arm and which limates his outfield abilty because he dosnt as much range in left than he does in center….. if u ever watch the redsox u never see ellsberry get a big hit in the clutch since he just came up in 2008… i mean ellsberry is a protitpical leadoff guy maybe for another team but i think they should make pedroia there leadoff man and in the offseason get jayson werth idk thats just my opinion

            Reply
      • Dave_Gershman

        15 years ago

        I wonder if Carlos Beltran would be a good fit in DC actually. After the Nyjer Morgan incidents this season including last night, I’m not sure that Rizzo is exactly happy with where the organization is going. If the Mets were to get a few decent prospects in return and eat some salary, Beltran would fit in great in DC…Zimmenator, Dunn, Beltran, Willingham would be a pretty good 3,4,5,6 if they re-sign the Dunkey. I’m just putting it out there.

        By the way, isn’t it funny how the Nationls traded Milledge for Morgan because they thought Lastings had attitude problems…

        Reply
        • $1519287

          15 years ago

          You know, I think Beltran in D.C. makes some sense.

          – BNS

          Reply
          • Dave_Gershman

            15 years ago

            Thanks Barry Nicholas Smith. I think so to. It’s his kind of atmosphere.

            Reply
          • Dave_Gershman

            15 years ago

            Wait Ben thats you? What? I thought you never commented!! I just used Barry as making a joke like it’s your twin brother or something! Thats cool the commentmoderator is you Ben I solved the mystery!

            Reply
            • $1519287

              15 years ago

              Yeah, I should just get an account with my name, but this is the one I’m usually logged in on. But yeah, it’s Ben.

              – BNS

              Reply
              • Dave_Gershman

                15 years ago

                So all along, All along…its been you! That’s awesome.

                Reply
      • Pasta Diving

        15 years ago

        Sox would trade Dice BB for Beltran in a heartbeat and Mets would hang up. Quality OF >>> Number 4-5 starter. I wonder if Mets would like Bowden if they eat a part of Beltran’s salary.

        Reply
        • Michael Barrell

          15 years ago

          You’re kidding, right? They already have a surplus of outfielders (Kalish, Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew, Reddick) and don’t need any more, especially if Carlos Beltran is going to underachieve like he is right now. Dice-K also has a no-trade clause in his contract (despite the lack of 10-5, he and Boras had it worked in) so him waiving it is unlikely, especially to go to New York where the GM is totally inept.

          Reply
        • $1529282

          15 years ago

          I don’t think many teams would trade for Beltran in a heartbeat. For all his struggles, Dice-K could still go out and post a very solid 2011 campaign… it’s a better bet than Beltran at this point, and Dice-K has a no-trade clause anyway.

          Reply
        • brian mcgahan

          15 years ago

          Daisuke wouldn’t be a 4/5 on the Mets..just because he’s the #4 or #5 guy on the Red Sox doesn’t mean that’s what he is. The guy put up a 5 WAR season the last time he was fully healthy, despite his flaws he is very effective. In the NL he could do great things and be much more aggresive against the shallower lineups.

          Reply
    • Rick

      15 years ago

      All I can say about that is hahahaha….you are dreamin

      Reply
    • Tko11

      15 years ago

      We will glady give you Cameron and Dice k for Beltran! Dice k =10 mil per year and I cant remember what cameron got but it should equal beltrans 18mil…only thing is dice k’s ntc. Cameron would make his grand return to new york for the player he injured…

      Reply
    • Potrzeba

      15 years ago

      we want david wright!

      Reply
    • Potrzeba

      15 years ago

      we want david wright!

      Reply
  3. boston3party123

    15 years ago

    The redsox should get rid off the disastrous wakefield and while there doing that they should get rid of there horrible GM theo epstein who put together this mess of a team they have right now…… if the redsox were smart they would have traded Ellsbery to the padres when they could’eve for good prospects instead they keep him and he gets hurt for like the 3rd time this year

    Reply
    • Coreno

      15 years ago

      you, sir. are ignorant.

      Reply
      • boston3party123

        15 years ago

        Just stating the truth of an angry redsox fan

        Reply
        • Coreno

          15 years ago

          the team Theo put together this year was better than last year’s in my opinion. Not his fault that his team was never healthy all together on the field at once. and the depth of this team in incredible. the fact that they would be a division winner if they were in most other divisions with the team they are putting out the everyday really says something.

          Reply
          • boston3party123

            15 years ago

            Yeah ur right to some degree but when is it time to get rid of some of the guys that are starters that are not producing like ellsberry and cameron that have been hurt the whole year and have not lived up to there contracts at all

            Reply
            • Michael Barrell

              15 years ago

              So you just drop them without giving them a chance to come back healthy next year? Ellsbury is under team control until at least 2013 (I think) and Cameron still has another year on his contract and after this year, no one is going to take him. If you applied your philosophy to everyone, then Pedroia, Youkilis, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett would all be gone.

              Reply
            • ellisburks

              15 years ago

              Look at the people on the Red Sox who have been hurt at least a month this season: Youk, Dustin, V-Mart, Beckett, Dice-K, Jacoby, Cameron and Tek. That is your 1B, 2B, Ca, Ace, #3 starter, LF, CF and back up catcher. Then look at where they are in the W/L column: 17 games over .500. Name another team that could play that well without that many integral players?

              Reply
        • brian mcgahan

          15 years ago

          Big difference between “angry redsox fan” and ignorant red sox fan. You seem like the latter. Theo Epstein makes mistakes, but he is absolutely one of the best GMs in baseball.

          Reply
        • jwredsox

          15 years ago

          I think you are using the term “fan” quite loosely.

          Reply
  4. moonraker45

    15 years ago

    Most overrated rotation in the league… Buchholz and Lester are both awesome, any team in the league would love either of them. But Lackey, Beckett, Dice K, .. too expensive and regressing.

    Reply
    • boston3party123

      15 years ago

      So true there two most expensive pitchers are not even there one and 2 pitchers….. shows what a great front office the redsox have

      Reply
      • MaineSox

        15 years ago

        Wait, so because they drafted and brought two pitchers up through their farm system that are their #1 and #2 pitchers and are under team control for VERY cheap, that means they have a terrible front office? I don’t get it? Or maybe it’s because they have two guys who could be (were) aces on other staffs as their 3rd and 4th best pitchers? And overrated? Every one of their starters (including Wake) has the potential to win 15 to 20 games in any given season if every starter won 15 games in one season (definitely possible) that would be 75 wins just from their starting 5, for comparison both the Yanks and the Rays (as of today) have 66 wins from their starters.

        Reply
    • johnsilver

      15 years ago

      Curious how Beckett has an injury filled season and a third and then he all of a sudden becomes rubbish. Got a feeling fans posting here would love to have him penciled in next season on their own favorite team as a #2 AT LEAST. The guy (when healthy) wins clutch games in post/regular season as a habit and against other teams aces as well.

      Reply
  5. It_Is_What_It_Is_Ormaybenot

    15 years ago

    Gotta Trade Dice K, I hate seeing younger players blocked (Doubront) who have similar or more upside than an expensive veteran. And I would never boot Wakefield into retirement, he actually pitches better with more work, but regardless he is very cheap for a veteran 5 or 6 starter and could fill number 4 if injuries strike..

    Reply
    • $1529282

      15 years ago

      Daisuke has a full no-trade clause and $20MM over the next two years without the performance to even generate interest in him. They won’t be able to trade him.

      Reply
      • It_Is_What_It_Is_Ormaybenot

        15 years ago

        You might be right, but he might be ok in the NL, he might even be a #2 in the NL. 10m yr for a number 2 is good in that league, but you are right we would have to overcome the no-trade. But I suspect he could be enticed if it means not being the number 5 for the Sox, plus better stats in the NL

        Reply
        • Brian Culpin

          15 years ago

          It’s not just the NTC they’d have to overcome. Dice-K’s contract is full of very unique incentives. The Sox pay for multiple flights back to Japan for him & his family(I don’t remember the exact number of flights, but it was a lot…like 600 for the life of the contract if I remember correctly). They also pay for his translator and allow him to be in the clubhouse at all times. They also pay for his massage therapist, car & housing.

          Reply
          • start_wearing_purple

            15 years ago

            He gets 8 tickets per year… That’s 48 over 6 years.

            Reply
            • Brian Culpin

              15 years ago

              Is it that low? Where did you find that? I searched but could not find exact numbers.

              Reply
              • start_wearing_purple

                15 years ago

                Cot’s Contracts, gotta love that site.

                Reply
                • Brian Culpin

                  15 years ago

                  Ah, nice..Thanks! That site doesn’t mention the tickets for his family? While my number was still way off, I remember that being a big factor in the contract for him.

                  Reply
          • BoSoXaddict

            15 years ago

            Dice-K and his wife also JUST founded a charity organization in Boston so I don’t think him and his family are looking to move to a new city. Also, Dice-K is not the type of player who would desire a move to the NL just to improve his stats. Dice-K is the type of player that wants, and very badly I imagine, to live up to his potential and be the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting when they signed him. The whole honor thing..ya know?

            Reply
            • Brian Culpin

              15 years ago

              Yes, the whole honor thing…if he fails, he shall impale himself with a Samurai sword! 😛

              Reply
    • jwredsox

      15 years ago

      Dice K in 2011 is probably worth more to the team then Doubront learning the majors in 2011. Trading Dice K is a mistake.

      Reply
  6. start_wearing_purple

    15 years ago

    Beckett has had a bad year and being injured didn’t exactly help, odds are he’ll bounce back. Lackey is a signing I didn’t like from day 1, but a lot of pitchers take time to adjust to a new park, he’s another one I expect to be better next year. Lester is a legitimate ace, hands down. Buchholz does have some deceiving numbers and a lower strikeout rate than expected of most aces but if you actually watch him pitch you’d see he’s the guy you want on the mound in a crucial game. As for Dice K, well he’s doing better this year and face it he’s the best #5 pitcher out there… Wakefield’s just unlucky that he’s the odd man out.

    I say don’t change this rotation next year. Put Doubront back in AAA and have him be the go to guy when the inevitable injury that happens to every pitching staff hits. Keep Kelly in AA for the year… just a friendly reminder to those scoffing at his ERA: He’s 20 and this is his first year pitching a full season. Try out Bowden as a reliever full time and see what Tazawa can do when he comes back.

    The real issue for the Sox this year were injuries, pitching staff can still go toe to toe with any staff… except maybe Oakland, their staff improves more next year and they’ll just be scary.

    Reply
  7. Rick

    15 years ago

    Dice K and Ells arent going anywhere. Dice K because of the NTC and under performance and Ells because of his speed and defense. He can change a game by just being on the base paths and although he doesnt take the best lines to balls in the field, his speed makees up for it by catching up to the ball anyways. Not to mention the sox are in love with this guy.

    Reply
    • jwredsox

      15 years ago

      under performance? a sub 4 FIP for a guy in the AL East making 10mil and going over 6 innings per start. NTC is the only hurdle, I could see several teams wanting Dice K.

      Reply
  8. logicx24

    15 years ago

    As a Yankee fan, I don’t think the Red Sox’s rotation is overrated. I think that the Red Sox spent way too much on Lackey, just like the Yankees did on Burnett. They both have been terribly inconsistent. Jon Lester is definitely good, but he has struggled at times, and Clay Buchholz’s numbers are deceiving, he is still a little young to be considered a true ace, like Phil Hughes (who has far too many wins than he would on a different team). Sabathia has been very consistent for the Yankees, after his early season skid. And the Yankees other consistent starter, Andy Pettite, has been injured, just like Josh Beckett. Ivan Nova has filled in very well, but he has only had 2 career starts, and he is a rookie. Dustin Moseley has been bad, and that made me wonder why the Yankees didn’t pursue a #2 or #3 starter, like Kuroda off of waivers. But overall, both rotations have been plagued by injury, or inconsistency, it just being the red sox’s bad luck that their entire offense was injured.

    Reply
    • jgmaynard

      15 years ago

      As a Red Sox fan, I have to say that is one of the best posts I have ever read by a Yankees fan. LOL.
      But, seriously… WHY? Watching a baseball game and rooting for The Yankees is like watching a nature show and rooting for the leopard! :O) I’m like “Go, gazelle, go! He doesn’t have the endurance!” LOL. JK.

      Reply
      • logicx24

        15 years ago

        Well its the truth. Its not like I’m going to go up here and say the Yankees rotation has been perfect, because its far from it. I never was for signing A.J Burnett, and I didn’t like the Vazquez trade either, because both pitchers were coming off of career years, making their numbers deceptive. The Yankees rotation has not been fantastic, but its got the job done and thats what matters.

        Reply
  9. BoSoxSam

    15 years ago

    While Lackey and Beckett have been disappointments this year, I really like what Lester/Buchholz/Dice-K (yes, Dice-K) have done this year. Regardless of Buch’s “hidden stats”, I think Lester and Buchholz make a very strong 1-2 punch. Dice-K -looks- much better. I’m not sure how the stats have adjusted, but he’s using his fastball more, he’s not nibbling as much, and because of that, hitters have finally started swinging at his out-of-strike-zone offerings. I predict more improvement from him next year, when he’ll finally prove what kind of pitcher he can be. (Of course now he’ll melt down and give up 15 walks today, but whatever..) And about Lackey and Beckett, others have already mentioned this, but Lackey has had a tough year and -should- bounce back next year, if only a little bit. Even a small improvement, maybe back to a 4.10 ERA instead of 4.60, would make him yet again a decent option for 4th or 5th starter. If he bounces back to something closer to what he used to be, maybe 3.85 ERA (and all those corresponding stats..I’m too lazy to think of anything else :P), he’ll be one of the better 4 or 5 starters in the league. Beckett had a tough year riddled with injuries. While I don’t think of him as the ace of this staff anymore, at all, I see him bouncing back to be an above average pitcher again. Sure, Beckett and Lackey are overpaid. But they’re important cogs of a solid rotation, when they’re playing closer to their actual skill level.

    My prediction for next year’s rotation:

    Lester
    Beckett
    Buchholz
    Lackey
    Dice-K

    In a perfect world, though, I would prefer this rotation:

    Lester
    Buchholz
    Beckett
    Dice-K
    Lackey

    But I doubt that’ll happen. And personally, I’d like to see Felix Doubront stay in the bullpen. I think his repertoire of pitches is too limited for a starting role, and he’s really fit in with the bullpen well. Same thing for Bowden, he’s a 4th or 5th starter, but can be valuable out of the bullpen. I’d like to see what Tazawa can do on the mound next year, I see him staying in their plans as a starter. And Kelly had an adjustment year this year; if it continues next year I’ll be worried, but I expect him to improve.

    Reply
    • moonraker45

      15 years ago

      Am i crazy or is your prediction for the rotation next year and perfect world rotation the exact same?

      Reply
      • BoSoxSam

        15 years ago

        Yeah, you’re crazy. Oh sorry did you think I meant my second rotation would include different pitchers? Then no, you’re not. But my point was just, using the pitchers we had, what -order- I preferred them in. Are you dyslexic, I suppose? Is that why it was so hard for you to see that they were both in different order?

        Reply
        • moonraker45

          15 years ago

          Lol you’re a tool. so in a perfect world Dice K would start 4th and Lackey 5th.. What are you 12 that you think that besides the ace of the staff that the order matters in anyway shape or form? especially flipping your 4 and 5? its absolutely ridiculous and idiotic. sorry. conversation over.

          Reply
          • BoSoxSam

            15 years ago

            Uh, no, actually. In the “perfect world” rotation, the only slot I -didn’t- change was Lester as the ace. Anyway, you have a point that the rotation order doesn’t matter too much. I guess the only thing I was trying to do with that was show how Boston values each pitcher (meaning, for the ceremonial first five games, there’s no way they pitch Beckett third and Lackey fifth..), and how I valued them. But it didn’t really illustrate a good point, I’ll give you that.

            Reply
            • moonraker45

              15 years ago

              Ok that I can accept.

              Reply
  10. jwcole22

    15 years ago

    Everybody was already well aware of A.J. Burnett’s inconsistent pitching, the fifth spot was still open going into spring training, Vazquez was acquired to be their #4 guy not an ace-like pitcher, and Andy Pettitte had been surpassing all reasonable expectations (ditto Phil Hughes) for this season before his DL trip. Only C.C. has been entirely what has been expected this season for the Yankees. I’d hardly call that overrated, especially in comparison to the Red Sox rotation that was thought to be 6 men deep of quality starters with three of their starters being considered to be ace-like quality pitchers. It’s not to say that the Yankees rotation wasn’t supposed to be better than it has been – and rightfully so – but the media has been much more in love with Boston’s rotation the past few seasons than the Yankees’ rotation. Who had been putting anyone besides C.C. at the head of the pack as an ace on their staff? Boston was being fawned all over because of Lester, Beckett, and Lackey all being co-aces and NESN was running a report back in spring training about how all these guys felt they could coexist as three co-aces.

    I was never in favor of the Yankees signing A.J. Burnett, was pleasantly surprised last year but have been wondering all along why they’d hand out five years to reel him in even in the best of times. Dumb. NTC even dumber. Ditto Dice-K. When teams start becoming more disciplined and avoiding Scott Boras like the plague he is then perhaps they will not just fawn over clients just because they have never pitched in the Major Leagues at all. And any setbacks the Yankees have had in their rotation will be straightened out by next year in all likelihood, especially if they sign Cliff Lee as everybody expects them to. And they still have some time left this season to turn things around in their rotation as well but even if they don’t I still feel very confident about their rotation going into next season if it does in fact project to be C.C., Burnett, Lee, Hughes, and Pettitte/Nova/TBA.

    Both rotations have had disappointments and that’s the bottom line but to think that the Yankees rotation was supposed to be more settled than Boston’s going into the season is just silly.

    Reply
    • jwredsox

      15 years ago

      I don’t think a team signs a guy because Boras is representing him, that just makes them pay more. Avoiding Boras is a bad way to get talent (especially in the draft) and would be a mistake. You can’t just not sign players who belong to a big sports agency company.

      Reply
  11. dickylarue

    15 years ago

    The fact is that if Beckett and Lackey don’t bounce back, their contracts are the kind of team killers that sink an organization for years to come.

    The revenue stream in Boston has dipped this year. Ownership will not be willing to spend to cover up mistakes like they did in the past.

    You’re not going to see Boston pay another team to let Beckett and Lackey pitch for them.

    On one hand it’s smart to lock up the rotation for years to come. On the other hand, it could cripple the team if age, injury and underperformance come into play like it has this season.

    The Red Sox rotation is one of the better one’s in baseball, but that’s only predicated on the idea that Lackey and Beckett pitch to their career norms and aren’t what they were this season.

    Lackey, in the AL East, has evolved into a 5 inning pitcher who burns the pen much like Dice K does. Beckett isn’t Beckett this year. Is it a small sample or is the this the Beckett to expect for the next 4 years here?

    The Red Sox goal for the off season has to be to build the perfect bullpen to rescue these guys should some of them only be able to go 5 most nights.

    They’ll never have problems scoring runs playing half their games in that sardine can of a ballpark.

    But if the starters can’t give them length, they need a bullpen deeper than Bard and Papelbum to survive, although the fact that the Rays are shedding payroll and losing marquee player this off season should make the competition for 2nd place a little easier next year.

    Reply
    • BoSoxSam

      15 years ago

      OMG! No Gammons joke today? I’m so disappointed!

      Reply
    • jwredsox

      15 years ago

      I don’t think a drop in revenue is something to be afraid of. The still sell out, sell tons of merchandise (domestic and overseas), have money coming off the books, and it hasn’t been that long since their payroll was over 200mil so I doubt there is much of a difference. oh and Lackey throws over 6 innings per game.

      Reply
      • dickylarue

        15 years ago

        And he gets lit up like a pinball machine in innings 6 and beyond.

        You can’t honestly defend his performance as good this season.

        Boston has scored a boatload of runs. I think they are 2nd in the league in runs scored and they are in 3rd place 8 games out with a poor run differential.

        Hate to break it to you, but that’s a failure of the starting pitching. If your starting pitching delivered you’d be printing playoff tickets right now.

        The Red Sox are in the same territory the Yankees were in a few years ago when locking people up to big guaranteed deals long term limits your options when things go wrong and injury strikes.

        Reply
  12. jwredsox

    15 years ago

    Can I just rant on these Red Sox “fans” who don’t know anything about baseball.

    They hate Cameron yet the guy got the freakish injury of the year award (Kidney stone that creates an abdominal tear? Come on fate!) yet he still puts himself out there and plays in pain when he team around him drops like flies. He could have just cashed his check for 10mil and called it a day after 10 games but he held out as long as he could. This guy should be cheered and be fully healed after this surgery.

    And Dice-K. “fans” hate him because the Sox paid so much for him yet he has been good this year (outside of 3 of his first 4 starts). He has a 3.36 ERA in that span. Has his overall numbers been great? no. Will he walk people? yes. Will he drive you mad? yes. Does that mean he has no value? no. He is well worth his 10mil contract pitching like this and the Sox know this and won’t trade him.

    So Red Sox “fans”, please hold your breath waiting for Dice K and Cameron to be traded. PLEASE

    Reply

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