It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.
Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…
The Good
- Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
- If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
- He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
- Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
- Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health.
The Bad
- Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
- He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
- As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
- The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.
The Verdict
Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days.
That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well.
Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point.
HERP A DERP YANKEES
You’re not funny…
Yeah for real. He is pretty much already a Yankee.
I mostly want him on the Yankees so we never have to face him in the playoffs again. That was rough. But we don’t really have the best track record when it comes to “can’t miss” big money pitching we haven’t drafted lately (Pavano, Johnson, AJ, Farnsworth, etc, etc).
CC?
Even if you toss in CC with the other 4, thats 1 out of 5 and I still call that a bad track record. Let me toss in Jeff Weaver and Javy Vasquez, thats 1 out of 7, or 1 out of 8 if you consider that the Yankees made the mistake on Vasquez not once, but twice.
The Yankees are going to be in need of starting pitching next season, they also like to pick up pitchers who have beat them in the past, especially if it happens in a big spot. I’d say there’s a 95% chance Lee is the number 2 starter behind Sabathia next year. That goes up to 99% if the Yankees don’t win it all this year.
I would think Lee would be the number 1 ahead of CC
Sure, just as long it doesen’t ruin a possibility of Betances and Banuelos making the rotation in the future. We will probably have to trade AJB to do that.
Phillies are going to sign him.
not really.
Thanks for that analysis. So the Phillies have all this extra money after taking on Oswalt’s $16 million a year and giving Ryan Howard that ridiculous extension?
The Astros are donating $7 mil to the Roy Oswalt fund…
Twins. Well, it would be nice to pony up the cash, but at his age? I know we need an ace … I am so on the shelf about this.
Francisco Liriano says hi.
Francisco Liriano says hi.
Oh I wish my Tigers would change their minds and sign him, just so I can watch all the Indian fans cry whenever we face them.
It makes me cringe to hear that 5 yrs 100 mil may be a starting point. I might go to a 6th year…maybe. Most likely after a few beers. But if they Yankees swoop in w/ like a 7 yr 150 mil deal, you can have him. And the Rangers can chase after Grienke or someone
Oof, please don’t sign him for seven years.
Signed,
Zen Baseball Yankee Fan
Not even the Yankees will give him 7 years. 5 max.
After dealing Smoak for him, the Rangers pretty much have to sign him long-term.
Well the Rangers have Mitch Moreland who’s a pretty good prospect. He’s, I guess, now gonna be their future first baseman.
No doubt, I love Mitch Moreland as a prospect but having both Smoak and Moreland on the team next year would have let the Rangers put Hamilton where he obviously belongs: at DH. His body can’t hold up to the wear and tear of being an everyday outfielder, he needs to be a full-time DH in the very near future.
Of course he has durability issues, but he got injured because he made a great play in CF, but then crashed into the wall, which really was just an accident(though not really, the wall was right there). I don’t think he wants to be a DH, and if I was the Rangers, I’d give him another chance to play the OF, but if he gets injured again, move him to the DH role.
This Yankee team is very well put together position wise and Lee is the most obvious need. For the most part, the organization has gotten ripped for not being deep but the fact is that they have some really nice prospects. I would say that Lee really solidifies the rotation and if Pettite were to retire a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Burnett, Hughes and Nova isn’t a bad look. With David Pehelps, Noesi and DJ Mitchell @ AAA next year, Warren, Banuelos, Betances and Brackman @ AA and a bunch of young power arms in single and low A the organizational depth w/ starting pitching is pretty strong.
I would start off by offering Lee a 4/$90 mil deal. That’s slightly less than CC’s average but I think very fair. I would also pick up Wood’s option even if he might be a tad overpaid for a 8th inning guy. It’s been so hard to find a dependable guy for the back end that I wouldn’t let money get in the way of retaining the best option we’ve had. I would definetly stay away from declining the option and then trying to sign him to a multi year deal though. I’d rather overpay for 1 year vs being tied to him for 2 or more.
You know some other priorities? Catcher. Now I’m just putting something out there, and it of course is a subject of debate.Sign Ramon Hernandez. He’s a very solid catcher, and he was good with the Reds this year. He led all FA backstops in OBP, and he would fit right in with the Yanks becuase they led the MLB in the category. He also has some pop left in his bat, and I think he could probably hit 10+ HR in Yankee Stadium. He would be a huge upgrade over Cerv too. I’m also completely tired and fed up with Girardi putting Posada-Cervelli out there to catch. Cervelli can block balls in the dirt, but he can’t do much else. Posada is dowsnright terrible at the position. Hernandez also I’m pretty sure, has a pretty good arm, better than Cerv and Posada combined. And it would also be a better platoon partner if Montero came up(which he should). Posada @ Catcher – 2-3 days per weekFA pickup/Hernandez/Jesus Montero @ DH for the days posada catchesHernandez/Montero @ Catcher everyother dayPosada @ DH when Hernandez catches.
Any team that gives a 32 year old Lee a 5/100 contract is foolish regardless of how big their need is. This is a situation in my opinion where the Yankees should let someone else be the over paying party. They need to say 3/75 or 4/80 in a take it or leave it manner and let the Rangers/Angels/random team be the team to pay him 5/100.
Lee won’t take three years, he probably wouldn’t even take 4 years. This is his last big payday, and he is going to ride it out hard. I would be surprised if he signed for anything less than 5 years, 6 is more likely. He can pretty much set his own demands because there will be enough buyers.
Hard to see him getting 5 years. 3/70 or 4/90 seem more likely. I just don’t think there a large enough group of teams that can afford him which might keep his price down. The only “big market” team other than the Yankees that I could see making a run at him is the Angels. I’d love to see him stay in Texas, but I’m not sure they can bid with the Yankees.
I am praying the Yankees sign Lee. The more future albatrosses for them, the better as far as I’m concerned. They already have one with AJ and will soon have two more with King Jeter and an aging A-Roid.
BoSox will NOT be making an offer here and expect him to go to the Yanks. We do not need pitching, the Yanks do, and this will probably be the Yanks “sole focus” in the FA market. I don’t see anybody coming between them and their desire for a second dominant left hander (expecting Pettitte to retire after the season).
That said, I think the Sox will have little to no competition for Carl Crawford. With the Yanks focused on Lee and the Angels probably signing Beltre, we’d be in line to sign the third highest available FA.
I read somewhere (maybe hear) that Texas just signed their own local TV deal which was going to give them an extra $65 mil or so each year. That could allow them to spend with the big dawgs this year. However, I’m not sure that Lee wants to stay in Texas. Other than the Yanks and Texas I don’t see any other team out there with the obvious need and ability to spend $22+ mil on a SP.
Right now, of the big market teams the…
Angels have $45 mil (before arbitration) tiep up in Haren ($13), Kazmir ($12), Pinero ($8), Santana ($8) and Weaver ($4.5 before arb). Can’t see them going out of their way to sign Lee.
Dodgers need a front end guy but I doubt they’ll spend anywhere near what Lee will command considering the divorce situation.
Mariners have the money and the need but they already did that dance with Lee and I doubt Lee wants a repeat. Also, I think Lee see how out of whack King Felix’s record was despite being the best pitcher in baseball. Lee wants to win and I doubt that would happen in Seattle.
Mets have a need but I think Lee can see the disfunction and transition that’s undergoing.
Phillies. Can’t see him returning considering the circumstances in which he left and what was said. Also, they have Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton and Kendrick locked in for $46 mil (incl the money from the Astros).
Red Sox are set with Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Dice K and Buccholz totalling about $49 mil.
The Tigers represent a legit possibility as they have about $70 mil coming off the books from payments for Dontrelle WIllis and Nate Robertson concluding and letting Ordonez, Bonderman, Damon, Inge, Peralta, Laird and others walk. They have a glaring need for another front end guy. Lee would be perfect for that ballpark, is familiar with the AL Central and can turn the Tigers into a real conteder in a weak division.
White Sox are set with $47 mil invested in Peavy, Buerhle, Jackson, Floyd and Danks.
So that leaves it at the Rangers, Yanks, Tigers and Mets as serious shoppers.
Some might see Lee as a luxury for the Yanks but I see him as a “must have”. CC is a solid #1 and I think Hughes will be a good front-mid rotation guy but he’s still got a lot to learn. Pettite is getting older and we simply can’t expect him to be a sub 4.00 pitcher next year and AJ…well….is AJ. Whatever you can get out of him is gravy. Lee solidifies the staff and allows us to to take a chance with a kid like Nova if Pettite decides to retire.
As for the albatross comment. The Yanks are not the Marlins and have shown the ability to absorb huge and bad contracts before with guys like Pavano, Giambi, etc and they didn’t provent us from making improvements. However, the Yanks “should” be able to save $5-9$ mil from new and reduced contracts for Mo and Jeter, have another $17 mil coming off from Vazquez and Nick Johnson, and if Pettite retires, another $11.5 mil. There really aren’t any other major needs as we’re pretty set in the field and I think the Yanks will pass on Werth and Crawford.
I’d also add the Twins into the mix as well. Don’t forget, they were interested in trading for’em at the deadline. They’d have to raise payroll of course but imagine a 1-2 of Lee & Liriano to go with the dynamic duo of Morneau & Mauer. Can you say darkhorse.
I agree, wouldn’t surprise me at all to the the Tigers go hard after Lee
Except they just recently stated (explicitly) that they do not intend to participate in the Lee sweepstakes.
Baseball playing second fiddle to football … and sliding in the ratings on an annual basis … should hardly be a surprise since Type A players like Lee are linked to the usual suspects (read: the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Dodgers, and Phillies) … and almost always reeled in by these usual suspects … every. season.
If the Yankees get him, it could be 3/60 or 4/80. I don’t think it’s going to come to that. I think he signs somewhere else, a 4 year or maybe 5 year deal at about 15-16 million a year.
You’re kidding right? He’s going to get much more than that.
I agree, 5/$100M as mentioned in the article as the starting point seems about right, and it could go as high as $120M. The other thing is, Lee said earlier this year that wherever he signs they are going to have to give him a no trade clause.
Must feel really good to be an Indians fan these days.
” Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball”
?? That seems like a bit of a stretch….I don’t think he’d make my top 5…..I’d probably have him behind Lincecum, Halladay, King Felix, Sabathia, Wainwright, Carpenter…….not sure I’d put him ahead of Verlander, Josh Johnson, Lester, Jiminez
Lincecum, Halladay, King Felix, ^ Lee^, Sabathia, Wainwright, Carpenter.
“not sure I’d put him ahead of Verlander, Josh Johnson, Lester, Jiminez”
Verlander – yes, JJ – Yes, Lester – Yes, and HELL YES. Hes better than them for now.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if he regresses real quick like.
1.) King Felix
2.) Roy Halladay
3.) Justin Verlander
4.) Jon Lester
5.) Tim Lincecum
6.) David Price
7.) CC Sabathia
8.) Adam Wainwright
9.) Josh Johnson
10.) Zack Grienke(He’s still a 5 WAR pitcher)
That’s your list without Lee.
Cue the “CC should not be in front of him, or CC shouldn’t be up there” comments. If someone here said Robinson Cano is an average defender, someone else is bound to deflate players value for no apparent reason.
Because statistics account for nothing when put up against the unfailing argument of “I seen it with me own two eyes!”
I have no idea how those 10 pitchers are all better but I shall take your word.
King Felix is better than Lee.
i like how you point to WAR grienke and ignore the face Cliff lee has been a 6-7 WAR pitcher since he reinvented himself after being sent down to the minors. And as the article say that’s the best for any pitcher not named halladay (who is older than Cliff Lee)
i like how you point to WAR grienke and ignore the face Cliff lee has been a 6-7 WAR pitcher since he reinvented himself after being sent down to the minors. And as the article say that’s the best for any pitcher not named halladay (who is older than Cliff Lee)
King Felix is better than Lee.
I think this boils down to whether or not the Yankees will blow everyone else out of the water w/ some crazy offer. If they do, he’ll be in NY. If they decide to be more cautious and don’t, then I can see the Rangers stunning some people and bringing him back
Another factor I haven’t seen mentioned is that the Rangers’ new ownership seems like they want to make a splash and spend some money (especially w/ the extra revenue they’ll have coming in). I would hope they aren’t stupid enough to get into a long, drawn out bidding war w/ the Yankees…but it wouldn’t surprise me if they did either. And they resigned him on an outrageous contract
I could be wrong but from what I’ve heard Lee wasn’t exaclty thrilled about pitching in Texas. So if money is equall and with Lee’s relationship with CC and desire to be competitive every year I think the Yanks have a very good shot at him.
As for the Tigers, I don’t pay much attention to what someone says in October. The Yanks said they weren’t that into Texeira and we all know what happened. It could all be about strategy.
As for the whole Football vs Baseball popularity arguement, how silly is it to compare a sport that’s played 162 x a year with the majority played mon-thursday, the bulk of which takes place in the summer time when there are far more activities, vs the NFL when, which for the most part, is a weekend event primarily played 1 a week on a 16 game schedule, primarily during the shut-in winter months. Football is much more of a destination sporting event whereas baseball is a matter of convenience and proximity. The Cleveland Browns vs the KC Chiefs are always going to draw better on a Sunday than the Cleveland Indians vs the KC Royals will from Mon-Wed. Football fans will go to see any home game against any opponent once a week than a baseball fan will to see 1 game out of a series against a meaningless team during a work weekday.
Texas shouldn’t spend on FA pitching. Its foolish to watch 18-20Mil a year get destroyed by the Texas heat in Aug/Sep.
So they just shouldn’t invest in pitchers? Either way someone has to pitch during those months and the other team has the same disadvantage when they go there.
Lee, CC, Pettitte, Hughes, AJ.
Damn fine rotation next year. That is, if Andy comes back. If not, well I suppose Nova can be our 5th starter.
Lee, CC, Pettitte, Hughes, AJ.
Damn fine rotation next year. That is, if Andy comes back. If not, well I suppose Nova can be our 5th starter.