Links for Tuesday, as the American League Gold Glove winners are announced…
- Rangers outfielder Jeff Francoeur is expected to clear waivers and become a free agent by week's end, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Francoeur would have been non-tendered on December 2nd, otherwise.
- Speaking of non-tender candidates, Dodgers second baseman Ryan Theriot told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick he hopes to return next year.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan provides his top 164 free agents.
- ESPN's Keith Law says Arthur Rhodes is a player to avoid, in his relievers buyer's guide (Insider required).
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution speculates on outfield options for the Braves.
- Minor league free agent Eric Hacker signed a big league deal with the Twins, agent Matt Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Hacker, 28 in March, posted a 4.57 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9 in 165 2/3 Triple-A innings for the Giants' affiliate this year.
I have a hunch that Magglio ends up a Brave after Wren can’t find a trade partner. Burrell scares me with the horrible WS he had. Could be a fluke season.
Upton-Sure, shouldn’t be obscenely expensive
Ellsbury-take a physical and MRI and we’ll talk
Kemp-No, too expensive
Rasmus-No, way too expensive
Podsednik-GOD NO
Burrell-Meh, why not? He’d better hit the ball.
Magglio-As long as he can play left field on a regular basis, sure why not?
Berkman-see Magglio
Keith Law says Arthur Rhodes is a player to avoid, in his relievers buyer’s guide.
Agreed. There is little need for a LH specialist with a 1.54 ERA across 35 IP in 41 appearances in the first half of 2010. That season total of 8.2 K/9IP and .196 BAagainst are also dreadful. Please retire immediately.
But he’s a lefty specialist. And didn’t crack 1 WAR on FanGraphs this year. Anyone thinking of more than one or two years or more than $3-4MM are overpaying. I think that’s Law’s premise.
Gauging relievers, particularly lefty specialists, by WAR isn’t very helpful. WAR is essentially a counting stat (meaning it’s based on quality but affected by quantity), and specialists by definition don’t pitch very often. The fact that Rhodes just turned 41 should be what keeps GMs from giving him more than one year, not his WAR.
This makes no sense, and I mean that literally rather than derogatory. The fact that specialists don’t pitch very often limits their value so thus we shouldn’t use their value to value them? Can you clarify this a bit?
Saying a reliever “didn’t crack 1 WAR” doesn’t mean a lot without knowing how many innings he pitched, or how his manager used him.
How about this: Luke Gregerson pitched 78.3 innings with a 1.3 WAR. Rhodes pitched 55 innings with a 0.9 WAR. They provided essentially the same value per inning, one was just used more than the other.
Well, yeah. That’s kind of my point. Specialists don’t ever throw many innings because they’re in for often less than one inning per game for match-up purposes, so why pay them the same as a normal reliever? I think that is the crux of KLaw’s point, and why WAR is useful in this situation instead of just looking at him as a reliever with a low ERA/FIP.
I like WAR, but it’s not an end-all be-all stat for me. WAR simplifies things, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Actually, I’ll let Bill James explain it:
“Analysis simplifies, by its nature. But the goal of analysis should not be to simplify as much as possible, because the more you simplify, the more you are leaving out. The goal of analysis should be to deal with as much of the complexity of the real world as you can deal with, rather than to do the opposite–to strip the world down to its simplest features.”
Well sure. He’s also really old, and his WAR/value is always going to be affected by the fact that he’s a LOOGY. Still basically what my point is.
We’re agreeing here, aren’t we? 😛
Well, he’s old…
his WAR his not great… but who cares?
everyone should just be comparing him to other lefty specialists relievers, not to positions players or starters; and in comparison to other lefty specialists, he is very good.
his WAR isn’t the highest in the league, but no one is talking about making him the highest paid player in the league either…
I added nothing new to this discussion.. .I just wanted to see the comment-chain get progressively smaller and to the right… making an upside-down triangle…
based on his age: a year contract… maybe he’ll get lucky and get 2…who knows…
I suppose so. My point wasn’t that WAR sucks for relievers, more that we shouldn’t stop looking after checking out WAR totals.
Did you know Rhodes’ 0.9 WAR would have been at least the third-best total on 23 teams last year? It would have been the highest total for the Cardinals. He’ll find work next year.
Totally agree.
I assume you mean amongst bullpens, because, well, because that’s the only way that’s right and you obviously mean bullpens. 🙂 I’d buy that. But Rhodes was also better in ’09, so it shows you that the big All-Star hype from this year is really just fluctuation and noise. He was also much worse in the second half than the first half, though regression had a lot to do with that.
Oh yes, that’s amongst bullpens only.
I’m sad to see that Eric signed with the Twins. Because truly, is there a better fit for the Giants than some guy named Hacker?
I sense a trade in the future to get him back!
Looks like the Twins’ ‘pen got a little bit more replacement-level today.
I DO NOT want Burrell on the team!Rasmus would be a great fit but would cost us a bunch in terms of prospects/top prospects.I wouldn’t mind having Magglio if the price is right .Upton or Ellsburry would be a good pickup as long as Ellsburry is healthy.We could definitely use a leadoff hitter with speed.
Burrell brings a RH power bat to the lineup. Why don’t you want that?
And the Braves are in the NL, so you don’t have to worry about him flopping against AL pitching again.
Burrell is a minus defender and he was all around horrible in Tampa. I am not sold on his offense either. I don’t see how returning to the NL can make anyone a better hitter.
He sucks in the AL.
I’m not sure what happened with him, but, when he went back to the NL, he was great for the Giants.
Agree, I don’t see why so many are on the Burrell bandwagon. He may have power but that comes and goes…..and at his age it will go more than it will come. Unless he is nothing more than a pinch hitter I don’t want him.
You heard it hear first, Jeff Francoeur is next years Jose Bautista
whaaaa?
And you heard it here first, moonraker45 just made a stupid comment.
Not saying I agree with Francoeur having success next year, (let alone that kind of success) but if moonraker had said the very same thing about Bautista this time last year you would have said it was a stupid comment too. Just sayin.
Yeah, but Jose Bautista could at least draw a walk.
Bautista had actually displayed power and something resembling plate discipline before this season.
This type of thing always makes me wonder – why does there *have* to be another Jose Bautista in 2011? There wasn’t one in ’09, or ’08, or ’07, etc.
Actually, there was one in 2008. His name was Ryan Ludwick. And in 2009 you kind of had one in Russell Branyan (31 HRs while missing the last month of the year).
Yeah, we won’t see someone go from 10-15 HRs to 54 like Bautista did…but you see guys who had potential and never reach it, finally reach it after many years all the time actually.
Neither of them made anywhere near the jump that Bautista made, as you mentioned, and I assume that that was what the original comment was implying would happen with Frenchy.
Hahaha that would be hilarious.
you heard it here first…barry bonds will be masquerading as jeff francour next season.
Passan’s free agent list is awesome. No, there isn’t any groundbreaking information there but once you hit number, oh let’s say 90-ish and beyond, it gets plain funny. My personal favorite is #150 Jeff Weaver: Yep, it gets worse. If want a snapshot of what the MLB junk pile looks like, scroll through that bad boy all the way to the end!
In my opinion Braves OF solution = Alex Rios
Not unless the ChiSox want nothing much back, and eat about 70-80% of his contract, don’t think that will happen any time soon. Unless Rios + cash for Kawakami.
There would be no need for them to eat a bunch of money. Send McLouth and a couple mid level prospects…done deal.
So, exactly why would the White Sox trade a productive Rios for an un-productive McLouth and “mid-level” prospects??? If they take McLouth the Braves would be required to send them Grade A prospects, not mid-level ones.
No, no it’s not a done deal. That’s a horrible trade proposal.
yeah. THey would actually want someone like Tehren for him so yeah.
The offseason for the Braves doesn’t sound too promising unless they can swing a trade for Kemp, Rasmus, or Upton – with Rasmus being the #1 target of that grouping.
The thought of bringing in more over-the-hill gang guys like Burrell and Ordonez is extremely un-appetizing. I so hope the Braves are sold next year to a private owner who actually is willing to spend money on the team, unlike Malone and Liberty Media.
I’d throw a guy like Delmon Young in that mix. Yeah he’s probably not available (then again, Rasmus probably really isn’t baring a huge deal)….but the Twins could move Kubel to LF and re-sign Thome. Have a few OF prospects too.
They’d probably want Jurrjens though in return if not more (Young finally came into his own).
Delmon Young ain’t worth it.
I don’t see why the Braves should sell the farm for a guy like Kemp, who would only be around for 2011 and 2012. Heyward and Freeman are going to continue to improve, and so will our young bullpen and rotation. The Braves will be poised to win several championships between 2013 and 2018 but we have to be patient and realize that we have a very strong core of players right now, but we are still in a building phase, and the best is yet to come.
You couldn’t have said it any better .Agreed
Theriot would be a nice pick up for the Padres. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he doesn’t do anything particularly bad either. He could fit in at either middle infield position and bat 2nd or 8th. I actually wanted the Padres to get him last year at the deadline instead of Tejada, he just seems to fit what the Padres should be trying to do better than Tejada did.
Theriot is horrible. 19 extra base hits and bad defense. He is not the solution for any team’s troubles.
you never know
Edger Renteria and Juan Uribe were extra large, their World Series experience proving clutch
then there’s Pat Burrell: he now has two rings that can’t be denied and had some key hits along the road to both, but in either of the finals would it have mattered if he was there or not?
Welcome to Pittsburgh Mr. Jeff Francoeur!
The AL gold glove winners list makes me sick….
I disagree with the pitcher, catcher, and shortstop.
The 3 Yankees shouldn’t be there.
Braves fans, it’s time to accept reality that we are not going to be able to hang on to Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino and JJ Hoover all at once. That’s just stupid. At least one of those guys is going to be needed in a trade for Ellsbury or Upton and possibly two of them for Kemp or Rasmus. If any team thinks they’re getting Teheran though they can go pound salt. How about this?
Delgado
Cody Johnson
Brandon Hicks
Zeke Spruill
for Colby Rasmus and Allen Craig
Too much/too little from us/them? Don’t be a jerk about it either, it’s an honest question.
It should say: Keith Law is a bad writing specialist to avoid, not Arthur Rhodes. Seems to be a misprint there. 🙂
Why can’t the braves just go after Ludwick? the dude is a perfect solution for us. A right-handed bat that can play LF/RF and plus he might not be that much after the eh season last year.