This will probably go down as the busiest hot stove day of the year for the Rockies. Not only are they nearing a nine-figure extension with their franchise shortstop, they're close to locking up their number two starter. That's not it, either…
- The Rockies added left-hander Eric Stults and catcher Matt Pagnozzi today, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Stults, 30, spent the 2010 season in Japan, but started 24 games for the Dodgers from 2006-09. He has a 4.84 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 145 big league innings.
- Last year the 28-year-old Pagnozzi appeared in 15 games for the Cardinals, the same team his uncle Tom spent over a decade on.
- Before it became apparent that the Rockies would be bringing Jorge de la Rosa back, Renck suggested that the Rockies had the resources to sign Carl Pavano.
- Pavano and De La Rosa aren't cheap, but neither are the Rockies' potential trade targets. The White Sox would want Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart for Gavin Floyd, according to Tracy Ringolsby of Inside the Rockies (on Twitter).
- The Rockies are now looking to add a reliever and a right-handed bat, according to Renck (on Twitter).
- The Rockies are expected to non-tender Manny Delcarmen, according to Renck (on Twitter). The 28-year-old pitched to a 6.48 ERA in 8 1/3 innings after the Rockies acquired him from Boston. Like former Rockie and current Red Sox Taylor Buchholz, Delcarmen was a valuable big league reliever in 2008, but has struggled since.
Fowler and Stewart for Gavin Floyd? Seriously?! Floyd’s numbers have been in a constant state of regression over the past three seasons. One or the other I could see, but both is asking way too much.
If the ChiSox ever want to really make a trade, they’d drop their price to Fowler OR Stewart. Maybe less.
Obviously you aren’t aware of how good of a pitcher Floyd really is. I can almost guarantee he’ll be a better pitcher in the National League, and inconsistency has plagued him this year. He started out the season horrendously, as he usually does, had some good starts here and there, then he had a stretch about 12 games where he gave up less than 2 runs each time out. Then, he was completely mediocre the remainder of the season. He’s not just an “innings eater” He’s completely capable of being a #2 or #3 starter and he’s proved it in ’08 and ’09. Of course, his stock is down and he won’t get a tremendous return back, but most people tend to undervalue Floyd by just looking at his numbers. And oh yeah, Floyd’s offense and defense behind him always sucks. He would have won at least 15 games this year if his offense was good behind him. I’d say at least half of those 11 wins he had to shut out the opposition because the White Sox couldn’t score any runs. Anyways, I would do Floyd for Fowler and Stewart in a heartbeat, or Danks and Pierre for Fowler, Stewart, and Franklin Morales.
I don’t care what you say about defense and offense and all that, but I rarely jump at giving up a speedy, athletic centerfielder and a slugging thirdbasemen for a 4.53 career ERA guy. Maybe Fowler or Stewert with a different player. I’m a Cards fan though, I tend to shy away from Chicago. No matter which side.
Fowler isn’t really all that amazing, I don’t know what you’re so mad about. He wouldn’t even start on the Sox unless they move Quentin to DH full time. Even then it would be a definite platoon situation. Floyd is consistently underrated here. He’s a solid number 3, borderline 2 starter. Look at his WAR.
Only because his HR’s have gone down, which lowers his FIP which increases his WAR. None of his rate stats have improved otherwise.
His numbers have been in constant regression over the last 3 years?
Ha.
His numbers have steadily improved over the last 3 years.
I think you might wanna re-check that.
FIP is down.
BB/9 is down.
HR/9 is down.
K/9 is up.
Sorry if I missed something, I’m not feeling great, just had surgery to repair my torn labrum.
here’s what you missed:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3886&position=P
BB/9 UP K/9 DOWN BAA UP
His LOB is slightly up from 2009, but still down from 2008. His GB rate and HR rate are the only positives and they jumped by so much that they’re most likely not replicable. So, if I missed something, please, let me know.
You did miss a few things. Go to FanGraphs to see for yourself but I’ll give you a brief rundown since MLBTR doesn’t like links:
BB/9 UP (2.79>2.75) K/9 DOWN (7.60>7.25) BAA UP
While he’s always been slightly above the HR/FB rate (10.6%) with (in chronological order from 2004 – 2009 with IP in parenthesis) 4%(28.1), 14.7%(26), 19.7%(54.1), 17.7%(70), 11.8%(206.1), 11.2%(187.1) and suddenly drops significantly below league average to 7.6%? I don’t think that that’s sustainable. Gavin Floyd had a fluke of a season with his HR/9 and HR/FB rates, everything else is in decline.
ah, how did that go… I’m having that surgery soon :/
Quite painful, but now it has been about a week since the surgery and it’s feeling better. Still awkward and my movement is very limited but at least the pain has subsided.
My doctor said today I’ll be able to start physio in about 5 weeks.
Good luck with your surgery.
It’s too much for Floyd, but how have his numbers been regressing?
08: FIP: 4.77 K/9: 6.3 BB/9: 3.1
09: FIP: 3.77 K/9: 7.6 BB/9: 2.8
10: FIP: 3.46 K/9: 7.3 BB/9: 2.8
But will they re-sign the Humidor?
No, I heard the Humidor is in deep negotiations with the Yankees to replace the Wind Tunnels in right field at YSIII. It has been rumored that the Humidor is seeking a 10 year deal at $189 million, similar to Jeter’s previous contract, and the Yankees are the front runners in a race against themselves. The Humidor is a type-A free agent, so the Yankees will have to give up a first round Humidor pick, and a supplemental round Humidor pick to the Rockies if a deal is made.
Fowler and Stewart seems like a fair return for Floyd. White sox would probably have to be sending back another BP arm or some cash though.
The problem here is that Fowler doesn’t make sense for Chicago. They already have a full outfield unless you believe the rumor that they’re going to trade Quentin somewhere since they don’t seem interested in simply DH’ing him. Plus Jared Mitchell should be healthy to start the year. Fowler would be a fifth outfielder at this point on that roster.
Hi Aaron,
The Sox want to move side-arm-bad-throwing Rios to RF. Too bad coaches no longer teach why it is SO stupid to throw side arm from any position.
UncleTom!?!?!
Count me as a person who forgot that Delcarmen played for the Rockies this season. It seems as it was only yesterday, when Red Sox fans on MLBTR would throw his name out as a solid closer for NL teams, and frequently include his name in Adrian Gonzalez proposals.
Interestingly, the Red Sox let go of Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez, who were both lights out for the world champion Giants.
What’s even more interesting is that Theo got something for him.
When Del Carmen came up 4 years sgo he consistently hit 98/99 on the radar. He also had a gut busting curve. He had great stuff and was successful for a few years. He still hits 95/96 on the radar. He seems to be a head case. He’s cheap and someone might be able to turn him around.
I wonder if Theo will offer him a minor league contract if no big league club picks him up. Maybe Young could give him something to work on in Pawtucket.
Floyd’s WAR for 2008, 2009, and 2010 is 2.5, 4.6 and 4.3 respectively. His 2010 WAR placed him 21st among all MLB starting pitchers – tied with David Price and better than Matt Cain. He’s 28 years old and under team control for the next 3 years at $5M, $7M and $9.5M.Floyd has significant value. Fowler OR Stewart is insulting.
See, Beauford knows what’s up. One or the other would be highway robbery.
Gavin Floyd’s IP has dropped every year, his BAA has gone up every year, his ERA has gone up every year, his WHIP went from 1.26 to 1.23 to 1.37. His K/9 has only gone up because of the steep IP decline his 2008 line had him with 206 IP and 145 K’s, 2010 saw 187 IP and 151 K’s. His R’s, ER’s, and BB’s have stayed steady from ’09 to ’10 while the hits went up dramatically (but I already mentioned that in the BAA part).
I don’t think you could say that he’s legitimately gotten better. The only thing to me that indicates him getting better (which is most likely reflected in his WAR jumps) is his HR/9 dropping significantly. Bill James sees continued regression from him next year and so do I. Fowler only has 2 seasons under his belt but has the makings of a solid lead off bat with a career .351 OBP, as he matures his OBP will get better and his speed is a true weapon, not to mention the guy is solid in a tough OF to play in.
With Stewart you’ve got a guy who’s biggest issue is his K rate, but that has fallen every year since he first made it to the big leagues and the kid has power. As he learns to jump on good pitches and lay off the better pitches (something that has been shown to predictably increase with age) his power will begin to shine more and he’ll be an offensive threat.
I see a deal of Gavin Floyd for Stewart and Fowler to be a trade of a guy on the decline for a couple of guys on the rise.
Stewart vs. LHP in 2010 > 231/343/341/683
Stewart has to prove he can hit LHP. A .341 slugging % says it all.
Fowler 2010 Home /Road splits:
Home > 313/401/531/932
Road > 211/297/298/595
A .337 difference in OPS needs no comment.
You can wish away these red flags with the typical “They’re young; they’ll get better” or the other rationalizations you already used to predict their rise.
But for every young 3B or OF that makes it big, even more become the next Brandon Wood or Corey Patterson.
For every SP that makes it big, even more become the next Oliver Perez.
I agree, it’s a gamble, but unlike Wood, who only recently got an extended look at the MLB level, Fowler and Stewart have a couple years of at least ‘league average’ performance behind them. UZR looks at Fowler poorly, but CF in Coors field is one of the hardest positions in baseball and he only committed one error.
I’d take guys on an upswing over guys on a downward trend. Fowler having a .932 OPS is the illusion of Coors field, but he’s more likely to average out to a .700 – .750 overall OPS for his career. No offense to Don Baylor, but the Rockies definitely had a swing locked in all season, and it was tailor made for Coors field. Having the AAA hitting coach who was able to correct Iannetta in the minors, had Seth Smith showing off regularly and was able to get Fowler hitting from the left side again (though his swing on the right side was messed up) should help.
I just don’t see Floyd getting any better. And I doubt most projection systems would either (I already mentioned Bill James calling for further regression) while he calls for both Stewart and Fowler to get better next year. And yes, I know it doesn’t mean anything, but it helps to prove that I’ve at least got an ‘expert’ agreeing with me. Whatever that’s worth.
Then you aren’t looking very hard. There are concrete reasons his FIP and xFIP are what they are.
His FIP is hot because his HR’s were down, his xFIP was hot because his HR/FB rate was down.
Taken from Saberlibrary.com:
The ratio of how many home runs are hit against a pitcher for every fly ball they let up. Home runs are obviously not a good thing for a pitcher to let up and a pitcher can reduce the number of home runs hit against them two ways: by increasing their GB% against and lowering their FB% or by reducing their HR/FB ratio. While pitchers can control to an extent the type of batted balls hit against them, there is some luck involved in whether a pitcher lets up a ball hit into the seats or to the warning track. For example, pitchers that throw in a home ballpark with short fences will tend to let up more HR/FB than pitchers that throw predominantly in expansive ballparks. HR/FB rates have also been shown to vary considerably from year to year, meaning they have little predictive value.
Context:
League average HR/FB rate is 10.6%. Since it’s been proven that HR/FB rates are not very predicitive, xFIP uses this value when estimating a player’s HR/FB rate. Players actual HR/FB rates fluctuate around this average, ranging anywhere from around 4% to 16% on a year-by-year basis.
I know what FIP and xFIP are comprised of. I noticed you neglected the central point. Floyd HR ratio is on the way down and his GB% is on the way up. He pitches in the AL. He pitches half his games in the Cell. His innings were cut short at the end as a precaution.
The greater luck factor is his BABIP in play. Give him a normal one last year and his numbers quickly come into line. Again your earlier implication that Floyd was somehow regressing was simply wrong. He’s getting better.
I’m calling it dumb luck. Yes his GB rate has gone up every year, and his HR/9 has dropped, but until he can prove that he can do it again I can’t help but think that the massive jumps that we saw this season are anything more than a fluke.
With HR/FB ratio being wildly unpredictable I seriously doubt that he’ll be able to repeat what he did last season and thus, not improve next. Lets not forget he started one more game this year than last but still managed a lower IP count. That shows that he isn’t able to stay in games as long as he was before which makes me wonder how much of an innings eater he will be down the line. I know he was sidelined as a precaution with his shoulder, but it still looks bad. I also know that grounders have a higher BABIP than fly balls, but to give up 21 more hits in 5.2 IP less? That’s also scary, it’s showing that he might be inducing weaker contact but he’s not really fooling batters as much either. I don’t care that his GB rate went up 4%, it doesn’t explain a 10% jump in hits.
Huh? His tERA went down to 3.78 which does strongly suggest that with an improved gb% uh yeah he did just had really terrible luck or perhaps a range-less 3rd basemen? Are you serious implying a pitcher whose rate stats stayed the same but produced more grounders is at fault for additional hits????
Pretty much everything else you said is now really just reaching. HR/FB ratio across the whole varies, but that doesn’t mean individual pitchers can’t do a better job. Dude you’re wrong let it go. Calling something a fluke in the face underlying numbers is just being stubborn for the sake of it. Oh I forgot. Floyd is regressing.
Better yet if you would rather look specifically at batted ball data as a contrast use tERA for Floyd
2008 5.11
2009 4.56
2010 3.78
As I said if you don’t understand how Floyd is getting better, you really aren’t trying.
You can dress this up whatever way you want. Floyd is hardly in decline. The only thing he’s been a victim of is bad luck courtesy of a .329 BABIP. With a HR/rate declining and a GB% increasing he’s become very valuable at his contract rates. Give me a break.
This isn’t to say that a 1 for 1 deal is fair, but pick one of Fowler or Stewart and throw in some cash or a mid grade prospect.
I would be very disappointed if the Sox only got one of those guys and a lesser component. Good starting pitching is simply more valuable than good outfielders/infielders. You also need to factor in the switch of leagues so IMO Floyd will be better in the NL.
If Im Kenny Williams, I pass…
If he was with the Sox, Fowler would play CF, Rios would move to RF and Quentin to DH.
Mitchell is expected to be healthy to start the year – at AA Birmingham.
Gavin Floyd does not remind any real White Sox fan of Bob Gibson when it comes to performance during Sept. and beyond — he’s more like a Javier Vasquez who looks like Butthead.
Congratulations of your “real White Sox fan” ranking. I hope its not self-appointed as it then becomes meaningless.
Next you’re probably going to try and tell me that my “World’s Greatest Boss” mug isn’t the absolute truth either — so skeptical.
From one White Sox fan to another, let’s have a good off-season and a better 2011 season.
Yes, thank you. Where are they going to get the left handed bat they desperately need? Think the O’s would be willig to deal Markakis?
Peter Angelos loves his fellow Greek Markakis and it would be difficult to pry loose this doubles machine. Plus the Orioles are looking for offense. They went after Martinez aggressively but lost. I think they will continue to look to add, not subtract, offense.
The guy I would love to get is Logan Morrison, the Marlins 1B. He was already mentioned as the player the White Sox wanted in the “Ozzie Guillen trade.” If Floyd is traded, I would much rather have this 23 year-old 1B than 26 year-old Ian Stewart or 25 year-old Dexter Fowler.
Giving long-term contracts to 30+ year old guys like Dunn always bothers me. If he would only DH, maybe. But if the latest Dunn asking price is true – 4 years, $60M – forget it.
For Fielder, you get 1 year plus 2 draft picks when Boras moves him. It depends how much Milwaukee wants. He’s younger than Dunn, but the earth shakes more when he runs.
Kenny usually surprises. He will likely again.
I think the Floyd trade talk will likely die down now that the Rockies have a 3-year deal agreed to in principle with De la Rosa. Not sure that I agree with that move, but it is what it is.
Good luck Stultzie, maybe you can stick this time…*THUMBS UP*