The Twins have agreed to terms with right-hander Carl Pavano on a two-year, $16.5MM contract, according to a team press release. Pavano will earn $8MM next season and $8.5MM in 2012, plus an extra $500K should he reach certain incentive clauses. A deal between the club and the veteran starter has seemed imminent for the last two weeks, and the two sides were said to be "very close" to a contract just yesterday. Pavano is represented by Tom O'Connell.
Pavano, 35, has pitched well for the Twins since joining the team in August 2009. Pavano has posted a 3.97 ERA and a 3.32 K/BB ratio in 44 starts as a Twin, and his seven complete games last season tied Cliff Lee for most in the American League.
Pavano's deal resembles the contract Joel Pineiro signed almost exactly a year ago, a comparison MLBTR's Tim Dierkes drew in late December. In November, three of five MLBTR writers correctly predicted Pavano would remain with the Twins.
Ken Davidoff of Newsday was the first to report the deal had been finalized, while Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and USA Today's Bob Nightengale added contract details.
Thats what I’m talking about 😉
Happy day in Twins land. Here’s to good health Carl!
mega dittos
Seems like if nothing else the Yankees drove up his price..
Drove up his price? He only got 2 year $16.5 mill. Which is a discount considering three months ago he wanted a 3 year $30 mill deal.
Go back and read the Pavano yankees thread. The Yankees forced the Twins to offer a second year. There’s no way the Twins were ever going to give the guy 3 years or 10 million or he would have signed 2 months ago.
Not really a discount. Maybe a discount from what he WANTED, but it’s not like this contract is that great. It’s going to be fine for the 1st year, but that 2nd yr, at age 37, I doubt he lives up to his $8.5M, especially with his health problems.
He’ll only be 36 in year two, just turned 35 a few days ago. Not that it changes much of what you said…
Plus, his arm is fresh thanks to those four years off the Yankees gave him. He may be a 35 year old, but he’s got the rotator cuff of a 31 year old!
Southsiders get another two years of teeing off on the moustache? Excellent.
He went 3-1 against the Sox last year. Careful what you wish for.
As a White Sox fan I agree this helps the Twins. His baseball card outside of 03 and 04 does show that he is healthy one year and then injured for 2 sometimes 3 years. Seems like a risky deal with his injury prone career. If he is healthy it is a steal, but he has not proven that he can stay healthy. Last time he got money he was a nightmare for the Yanks and they got the payroll to bail themselves out. Good luck guys can’t wait for baseball.
He should be fine this year, and next year the Twins have considerable money coming off the books (20-30 mil: mostly from Cuddyer, Capps and Nathan). Even if he is not able to give the Twins 200+ IP in 2011 and 2012 he isn’t going to kill the payroll.
He should be coming off the books when a couple of prospects should be ready to take on fulltime rotation duty (Gibson and Wimmers).
He also had an ERA over 5 against the White Sox last year, so you can view that both ways.
Bingo. He was hit hard last year.
He was hit hard, yet still won. I’ll take that every day. The W is the most important thing and he still got them.
he got lucky with run support, your logic fails
I will still take that any day. As I said, a W is a W. We beat the White Sox three times while Pavano was pitching. Beating the White Sox is something that we have to do to win the division and beating the Tigers is something we have to do to win the division.
The Twins record against the White Sox since 2001 is 106-80. Against the Tigers it’s 113-73. A big part of making the playoffs is beating the teams who are your biggest competition within the division.
The Twins have to beat these two teams and for the most part, they have. I will take that W any way the Twins can get it. The White Sox can seek comfort in hitting Pavano hard and losing, since they prefer that to winning.
His numbers were as good in ’09 vs. CWS and DET and they were bad in ’10. He was 6-2 with a combined ERA of about 2.75 against CWS and DET in ’09.
He got shelled one outing for a loss, gave up 5 in a win, and then had 2 very good games for wins. ERA is a bad metric to use in a 4-game sample size, but it’s safe to say he was respectable.
less than what i thought he would get
Definitely, everything we’ve heard has been around 10 million per year. He definitely came down from that 3/30 he reportedly wanted three months ago
I think he may legitimately enjoy playing for the Twins so who knows maybe he even gave them a slight discount and it may have been hard for him to find a second year guarantee somewhere else.
doubtful considering that there was little to no market for him other than the pirates, nats, recently the yankees and twins.
Well maybe its a bold statement, but I definitely think the second year guarantee drove the price down cause I’m sure the Yanks offered more cash
Pavano should fire his agent!! His agent totally misread the market…I’m glad he went back to the Twins, and I think it’s a reasonable cost for the Twins!! Great work Bill!!
Twins did well here – it is a decent price.
I thought they signed him last week?
Can’t argue with that pricetag. Certainly less than he’d have scored in arbitration.
Yeah that’s true. He got 7 in arbitration last year before having an outstanding 2010. The type A hanging around his neck ended up biting him. Definitely glad to have him back at that price.
I agree that he probably could have gotten more in Arbitration, but I think he knows this is his last shot at a multi-year deal, even if it is only 2 years.
HAHAHAHAHA YESSS HE DIDN’T GO TO THE YANKEES…THEY ARE NOT GONNA HAVE A GOOD SEASON THE RATE THEIR GOIN (starting pitching wise)
Ya…. because they threw their selves at him and wanted him so bad. Don’t take you anger out on the caps. I am a Red Sox fan and really don’t like the Yankees, but to say they will have a bad year is crazy. They have a top 5 lineup and a really good bullpen. They have a good front three, Nova could take 4 or five spot, all they need is some more pitching depth.
Signing Pavano would have been a terrible PR move for the Yankees. All my Yankee fan friends seem to get visibly angry if I even *mention* him (which, of course, I do regularly >:D).
For the Yankees pitching this season, a lot of it is going to come down to whether or not AJ Burnett can be the #2 guy they signed him to be. (Their lineup will probably carry them to a Wild Card berth anyway though…)
yeah and the red sox will beat them in the play offs and i think the red sox have what it takes to go far this year
Yes and I’m sure the Mets are going to have a better season right?
they could actually… they have the talent, they just need to stay healthy…look at their line up reyes pagan (who has improved a lot last year) wright(who pretty much bounced back last season) beltran (when healthy is a major threat in the line up) bay(needs to have a bounce back season and be like the 2009 bay) davis (will continue to improve himself and become a more powerful first baseman) their rotation is a pretty good rotation, when santana gets back santana (returns strong and healthy) big pelf (hopefully starts the way he did last year and carries that the whole season) dickey (develops his knuckle ball and has an even better season than last year) young (stays healthy and returns to old form)
IF all these things happen then yes the mets COULD have a better season than the yankees
Yes, because all of those will happen. The mets won’t be good for a long time
I think they will surprise people this year…and next off season they have a huge mount of payroll commin off (like 60 million) Alderson knows what hes doin and i think he can rebuild a team with 60 million dollars
I think Sandy Alderson was dealt the baseball equivalent of a 2-7 off suit (for those of you who know texas hold ’em poker) The Mets have 5 really bad contracts that will come off the books at the end of 2011: Beltran, Castillo, Perez, Reyes, and F.Rodriguez.
I feel Alderson has made some very wise economical choices for FA signings this offseason, and know he will rebuild the Mets back to a contender….but this is a 2-3 yr overhaul. I agree they have an excellent young nucleus in Wright, Davis, Bay, and possibly Reyes (if he could ever stay healthy) I know anything can happen, however most feel 2011 will be a tough year for the Mets.
thank you for kinda supporting me here… yes it is a project that will take a year or two , if Omar was still the GM id agree with Green_Monster on taking a while, but no this is a new ERA for the NYM now that Alderson has stepped in. But i still think they have a possibility of surprising many people next year
Yeah, Alderson was the GM for the Athletics from 1983-1998. He built those tremendously talented Athletics teams of the late 80’s early 90’s. Another bright spot for the Mets is they have three former GM’s working in their front office under Alderson, so the future will be better for the Mets. As the old saying goes.. “it’s always darkest before the dawn”…2011 will likely be “before dawn” for the 2011 Mets.
There is no way the mets will be better than .500. and 0 chance of winning the division Why you say? you have the PHILLIES in your division! I do give you credit for being a mets fan at least you cheer for a team that doesnt buy titles. The Twins signing Pavano adds a starting pitching depth (very good pitching depth) and keeps them in the running to win the division. They still lack bullpen pitching which obviously they need.
At this point in the season – before spring training begine, before any regular season games are played – every bad team has a “possibility of surprising many people”! If everything breaks their way, if enough guys have career years and no one gets it hurt, the Mets have “a possibility of surprising people” – but so do the Pirates,Nationals, D-Backs, Royals, Indians, and Mariners.
Wow! This is a great deal! Twins stick to their # and get the deal done.
I absolutely love this signing for Pavano! He returns to a team that he has pitched well for the past 1 1/2 seasons and to a pitcher friendly park. He also doesn’t have the pressure of being the “ace” as he would have on the Pirates. The best part is he can pitch in MIN away from the media spotlight, and only have a handful of games to pitch against the AL Beast!! I just hope Nathan can come back this year and be a force in the pen as he has for so many years.
I still think he would have been a good choice for the nationals…they are an uprising team and if they had gotten pavano it would make them even better
They got Gorzelanny and have a good group of young guys. They stopped trying to get him a while ago.
yeah but they still have some money left to have gotten pavano, and a rotation (when strasburg comes back) of strasburg pavano and gorzelanny is pretty good for a team that has been a last place team for a while now
Great signing by the Twins, wow is all I can say about the pitchers not going to New York, Pavano to me owes New York for the robbery he pulled on them.
robbery? he didn’t pay himself
Robbery as in they paid him to be on the bench, they got all of about 20 innings out of him.
how do you rob something that is being paid to you?
The Yankees were not throwing their selves at him. They did not try their hardest to get him. If the Yankees want someone, they get him, unless the guy is taking a pay cut to play somewhere else (Lee)
Kerry Wood too
actually in the 2003 of off season they DID throw themselves at him and paid him 40 million to have a good time on the DL for the good 4 years they had him.
Steal
All I can say is…. IT’S ABOUT F**KING TIME!!!!
This deal has taken SOOOO long to get done…it looks like a win-win for both Pavano and the Twins
Makes Westbrook seem like a borderline signing now
Carl better buy Drew a steak in Fort Myers
Twinkie fans rejoice. This guy is a sap.
His free agency timing was perfect, and while he didn’t get what he wanted, he is still going to be grossly overcompensated for what he will do these next couple seasons. He is a very mediocre talent, and if it weren’t for the dearth of pitching in the major leagues, this guy would be working for the TSA or flipping burgers.
Maybe when this two-year contract’s up you can talk to your manager about bringing Carl on board
nice…
thought he would get more, must be a discount for injury risk?
Nicely done TWINS!! A White Sox KILLER! I’d just like to point out the fact that Carl Pavano outperformed each and every white sox starter last season. This is a great sign for the Twins. Thome and Pavano back, now let’s hope the Japanese batting champ is the real deal!
Outperformed every white sox starter in what way? Please cite which stats you are obviously cherry picking. I agree that he had a great year, but what will you think if he returns to his career averages next season?
How about: Wins (17), WHIP (1.19), IP (221), CG (7, more than the entire CWS Rotation), Shut Outs (2, as many as entire CWS staff), BB/9 (1.5). Not to mention he was only 0.03 away from Buerhle in ERA.
It isn’t cherry picking when it is that many stats.
Thanks nick. Stats speak for themselves.
also… I would take his career average: 4.15 FIP with a 46% GB rate. That coupled with solid innings that protect the BP and mentoring to young pitchers: well worth 16.5 million.
an ERA over 5 against any team aint killin nothin dude.
how many times did you beat pavano last year???
If he pitches the same way against this year’s lineup, the moustache ride will be a sad one this year.
this year’s lineup? The only change is Dunn… I guess Pavano will get 2 more Ks per start against the Sox!
I feel pretty good about this signing because it’s a lot less than I thought they would have to pay. He’s been huge for the Twins while Slowey, Baker, and Blackburn have struggled. Even with Pavano and Thome back, the Twins offseason has disappointing IMO. White Sox and Tigers improve while the Twins lose Crain, Guerrier, Fuentes, Rauch, and Hardy. Hopefully a couple starters and relievers step up to bring another AL Central title to Minnesota.
I don’t know…seems like I hear every year how much improved the White Sex and Tigers are…and yet the Twins have been the dominate team in the central for the last decade. Adding Morneau and Nathan, who were out most of last year is like adding two all stars to your roster. We will get a full year of Valencia at third and Duensing as a starter. I think the player out of Japan will be an upgrade over Hardy. If Nathan is truly back Capps will make a great set up man. They need to shore up middle relief which I imagine they will do between now and the start of the season.
Its all good for the Twins as long as the stache is still under his nose.
Yeah, well where was he going to go? Detroit?
– South Park
The Nats could have and should have topped this deal. As long as you are giving 7/126 to Werth and trying to put together a respectable squad, it would have made sense to give Pavano something like 2/20 or 3/25 to help solidify the rotation.
Is…is that it? Are we done now? Is there anything left outside of full time DH’s on the market? What’re we going to talk about now?
I predicted 2 years for 17 million plus incentives…very, very close. And I think the deal works for both Pavano and the Twins.
Now the Twins need to finish rebuilding the bullpen, choosing among their pups or the scraps left unsigned. And develop backup plans in case Nathan and/or Morneau aren’t ready (or in case they won’t be ready at all this year. I’m afraid there’s a bit of a chance either could be done.)
And while I’m glad the Twins signed Thome, I kinda toss things around in my head at night now about trading Kubel, one of the promising minor league centerfielders, one of the Twins lesser present starters, and who knows what else for some really crackerjack pticher. Or something along those lines.
The team obviously sits at a relative disadvantage this year, as opposed to last year, regarding competing successfully with Chicago and Detroit. Not saying the Twins won’t win. Somehow they seem to eke out playoff status most years recently. But the unknown pitcher I dream about puts them in a better position to win the Division again and this time to go deeper in the playoffs, maybe even to THE Series. And anything can happen then….’87, ’91, maybe ’11.
I could see them bringing in 2 or 3 guys on minor league deals to compete for pen spots. Obviously they are hoping Nathan is back in the 9th inning so they can slide Capps back to the 8th inning. Not unrealistic but also not something that i would be banking on. They do have a couple options from the left side in Mijares and either Duensing if he isnt in the rotation or Perkins who shouldnt be in the rotation. From the right side they have Capps, Slama, Neshek, Hoey (who they got in the Hardy deal), and a few other guys who are fringe contributors. There are 3 guys left on the FA market who could help and in order (for me anyway) they are Chad Durbin, Lance Cormier, and Manny Delcarmen. Durbin would probably be the only one who would require a major league deal but looking at his numbers from the past few years with PHI he has been a solid guy out of the pen. Cormier had a pretty good year last year for TB and that was against AL East competition and Delcarmen has a great arm he just needs someone to help him put it together.
Realistically though it all depends on Nathan. If he can come back and lockdown the 9th again then their pen doesnt look too bad with Capps in the 8th and whoever else for the middle innings. But if Nathan isnt ready for whatever reason then Capps has to pitch the 9th and everyone else gets moved up.
I think that with the addition of Pavano they now have a rotation of Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn/Duensing. If Nathan isnt ready then it might be worth seeing what they can get for Blackburn or Duensing in a trade.
I dont see how Kubel is a tradable piece especially if youre hoping to bring back a top of the rotation starter. He is a Gardy fave and he is really only a DH. So that would limit his appeal to just AL teams and i dont see anyone who is looking to deal a starter in the AL. Maybe at the deadline but not right now and the deal wont involve Kubel.
However even with everything that ive said i still think that they win the division again. Its one thing to win the offseason like Chicago and Detroit seem to have done. But when was the last time anyone said that Minnesota won the offseason? and all they do is win division titles.
I think Chicago is scarier than Detroit mainly cause i dont think Detroit made themselves better so much as they brought back guys from last year. Their big name is V-Mart and he will make Cabrera better in the lineup but they did nothing to help their pitching other than Brad Penny. Their rotation has potential but im not sold on Scherzer and Porcello as a 2 and 3. Coke hasnt been a starter. and who knows what you get with Penny. They brought back Inge and Peralta. Any offensive help they bring will probably be given back by lack of defense by Peralta at SS and Inge staying healthy. I just dont see them as anything more than a 3rd place team right now.
Chicago brought in the big bat in Dunn but his question mark is how will he handle being a full time DH after being so adamant about not wanting to be one. Peavy is out til who knows when. Their biggest question mark is their pen. Middle relief is fine but they have to figure out their closer situation. Just ask any team who has gone with the whole closer by committee idea. It doesnt work. If Sale is going to be their 5th starter then who closes? They have to figure that out before it becomes a big problem and sabotages the season just like the 09 Rays.
Nice, I’m glad the Twins didn’t over pay.
Here’s what I think the pitching staff is going to look like now, and it’s not half bad:
• Liriano
• Pavano
• Baker
• Duensing
• Blackburn
—————-
• Nathan
• Capps
• Mijares (L)
• Manship
• Diamond/Perkins (lefty long man)
• Slowey/Gibson (righty long man)
•
Leaving this remaining spot left to be filled by Slama, Burnett, Hoey, Neshek, or Swarzak.
I think this possibly puts Slowey, Perkins, and Swarzak on the trade block.
How does it look?
The Twins usually go with seven relievers and five starters. That’s the way Gardy feels most comfortable with. I think they might try to sign one of the relievers that are remaining, just to get some more experience in there.
With no vet signing there are two spots open, but with one then there’s only one. I just feel it’s likely for them to grab someone because of that reason. I think the BP is something like:
Nathan
Capps
Mijares
Vet FA
Diamond
Slowey
Slama/Hoey/Burnett/Neshek/Delaney/Manship/Perkins/Hacker (I think that’s all of them…)
Just looking at that, it seems like a good BP to me. Nothing as scary as people make it out to be. It could still go south, but just looking at it doesn’t worry me.
Sure, it could go south, but just switch out the personnel. You listed 8 pitchers for 1 spot. One of those guys has to stick and you didn’t even mention 3 other options in the minors: Waldrop, Gibson, Gutierrez (all three more likely to get a look at midseason).
If they don’t take a shot at a Vet FA, I predict Diamond, Neshek and Burnett start 2011 in the BP.
I listed 8 pitchers for one spot because it’s going to be a competition in spring training for that spot. Those are the players who are up for that spot and I might have missed a few…
Waldrop isn’t on the 40 man so someone will have to be kicked off of the 40 man for him to be added and called up. I don’t see that happening since they kicked him off for a reason and have so many other options. Every other team passed on him when he was available in the rule 5 draft, that also says something about him. He’d pretty much have to light the world on fire.
Like you said, Gibson and Gutierrez are more mid-season call-ups, which is why I didn’t include them. My list was to start the season. They will not rush Gibson, especially to just sit in the bullpen to start the year. I could see them calling him up mid-season and THEN putting him in the BP like they’ve done with past starters (to help the team and limit his innings), but the guy has barely seen time at AAA. Gutierrez, another mid-season call-up.
Waldrop isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he is invited to spring training. They must be somewhat interested in seeing what he can do.
Needless to say, there are plenty of options. Other guys to add to the list: Phil Dumatrait, Chuck James and Yorman Bazardo.
Your list to start the season is very accurate. My comment was that once the season starts, there are plenty of options waiting in the minors.
I still don’t think he has much of a shot. He’d have to kick someone else off the roster and there are 8 or 9 other guys on the 40 man who are gunning for that same spot.
I do agree that there are plenty of options. There are well over 10 guys who could fill the spot, only one of them needs to. I don’t see them all failing. Perkins is also out of options, so he might get the spot by default. I don’t agree with that, but the Twins have given a spot to someone in the past who didn’t have the best spring training, but they were out of options.
I have a question about the Twins pen.
Is the reason they let 4 veteran guys from last year go because of:
– money issues, or
– Gardy thinks the 2011 guys are better than who they let walk away, or
– he didn’t like last years middle relief and didn’t want them back anyway.
I think there is still plenty of room for a proven, veteran, middle innings guy.
Casilla as the everyday shortstop still worries me.
The Cubs have tried many, many times to convert decent role players into starters, and it never worked.
So, do you think there is any chance Bill can make a few deals in spring training, or is this the 2011 Twins?
I think money played a part, not a huge part, but cerainly a part. The Twins usually have turnover ever few years in the BP. This much? No, but turnover happens.
The Twins were said to only have wanted Crain back (though Crain said they didn’t try hard for him). Look at the deals that Crain and Guerrier got. No way would I want the Twins to pay that though I will miss Guerrier.
It seemed obvious that Fuentes wasn’t coming back, though some of us fans wanted him (me included). He wanted to close and a ton of money. He didn’t really get either of those with the A’s, though I’m sure he’ll have a few opportunities to close. The Twins didn’t see him as a long term option.
It was surprising they didn’t offer Rauch arbitration and I’m actually surprised the Twins didn’t want him at all. That one I can’t say much about. If I had to choose, I’d pick Rauch over Capps any day…but keeping Capps was just going to happen.
I’d say besides possibly adding one of the remaining relievers on the market, the Twins are done. They’ve shown the last two seasons that if they need a piece they’ll get it at the deadline. They’ll even overpay (Ramos for Capps).
Money issues. Look at the deals those guys ended up signing. 3 years, 15MM, stuff like that. With Nathan in the 9th, Capps in the 8th, we’d be paying those 4 vets we let go something like 16-20MM to take care of the 6th and 7th innings, which tend to be lower leverage anyway.
That would be a +40 million dollar bullpen. Capps and Nathan are almost at 20. Yeah, that wasn’t going to happen.
I doubt Gardy thinks the 2011 guys are better, and I am sure he was happy with the 2010 pen. If I had to pick one of the options I would say: Money Issues.
This is the best way to save though… building a BP on the cheap is easier than anything else. If signing 2 of: Guerrier, Crain, Rauch and Fuentes would have meant not having the money for Pavano and/or Thome, then it was the right call. I just question trading Hardy for BP pieces.
Casilla is definately unproven, but fortunately the middle infielder options for the 2011 Twins extend beyond Casilla and Nishioka. Add Hughes, Plouffe and Tolbert to the list.
Gibson won’t be pitching out of the pen.
Barring numerous injuries to the staff, I don’t see him jumping from AAA to the rotation.
Looks like the 3rd best staff in the division
Looked that way last season too.
2010 best pitching staff on paper: White Sox
2010 actual best pitching staff: Twins
wrong:
starters’ 2010 WAR: Sox – 18.3, Twins 15.8
The Star Tribune says that the Twins only offered up a second guaranteed year in early January to top the Yankees one year offer.
Weren’t there reports of a team with a three year offer on the table?
I hadn’t heard of a three year offer. I think he would have taken a 3 year if one was out there. The news reports made it sound like the Twins had the best offer for years. Everyone else was hesitant to give him more than one. Even the Twins were hesitant to give him more than one, they first offered a year plus option.
I’m happy. At first I was against the two year deal but this looks good. He’s only making a million more than last year. He would have made 10 million if he took the arbitration. This works out a lot better for the Twins. Instead of 1/10 they get 2/16.5.
I’d prefer the Twins keep the excess in pitching and move someone to the BP, but if they can get something very useful in a trade I’d be fine with that.
I am impressed. This is an extremely fair deal. I thought for sure he was going for at least $21MM. Either they got a discount from him or he accepted less money because of his track record, but either way this looks like a very good deal.
It was a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” deal for the Twins. He could go either way. He already gives up too many hits (and especially dingers) for a front-line starter. If his walks go up, the ERA could be closer to 5 than 4. If he manages to keep his control as he ages (and the years off with the Yankees should have a positive effect), it’ll be a great contract for the Twins.