The Twins are "very close" to a new deal with Carl Pavano and are just working out the final details according to Joe Christensen of The Star Tribune (on Twitter). "I think we're in the home stretch here," said GM Bill Smith.
We first heard that the two sides were working towards a deal earlier this month, and just four days ago we heard that a decision was expected relatively soon. Previous reports indicated that they were working towards a two-year pact.
Pavano, 35, logged 221 innings in 2010, pitching to a 3.75 ERA with 4.8 K/9 and just 1.02 unintentional walks per nine innings. His 51.2% ground ball rate was the key to his success. Minnesota could slot him right behind Francisco Liriano to form a strong one-two punch in a division where both the Tigers and White Sox have improved quite a bit this offseason.
Wow, Bill Smith is talking about a move before it is finalized! What is becoming of the Twins’ front office?
I was wondering that myself…
I hate Pavano.
Color me surprised…
I love Pavano.
I think keeping Hardy was a better option than either Pavano or Capps. Time will tell.
Let’s not trash Nishioka before he’s even played 1 single ML game. Cmon.
Where am I trashing Nishioka by saying the Twins should have kept Hardy? I think Hardy and Nishioka woud have made a great ss-2ndb combo, with Casilla backing them both up. I think Nishioka was an excellent acquisition and by keeping Hardy would have made our team that much better. Get a clue before you spout off.
No trashing of Yoshi there… plenty of Alexi trashing, and it’s well-deserved to this point in his career. Marginal fielding and a .291 wOBA through 1073 PAs? Oh joy…
In Casilla’s defense… you could argue he’s never seen regular playing time. In the few stretches where he has seen extended starting time, he’s performed better than his career averages.
That said, I was just saying yesterday how keeping Hardy would give me a much better feeling about our MI situation, and then only dealing him late in spring training or early season once we have a better sense of what Yoshi and Casilla can do.
Bash Alexi all you want, but personally, I’m excited to see the Twins get back to having a few “Twins-like” players on the roster to mix in with our sluggers. I honestly don’t see much of a change in the W-L record because of the MI switch, and if Gardy could somehow decide to steal a few bases on hip hip Jorge instead of wasting outs bunting, this could help us against the yanks.
I wish this would just happen already I know the arbitration things slowed the process down for a few days but it can only be news for so long lol. The pavstache is returning now the question is are we done for the winter or is there maybe a Slowey trade still in the works with the starting rotation full +1.
so the whitesox revamped their bullpen. its not the best bullpen ever but its 100% better than last years so mark that as a huge plus. and they added one of the best power hitters in the past decade to their team. all while keeping the MVP candidate konerko and added minor league mlb experienced depth(not something kenny normally does)…the tigers added a solid bullpen piece adde one of the better hitting catchers in the league and are putting a ton of faith on penny….and all the twin did was over pay for matt capps when they have already super expensive nathan and resigned a mediocre pitcher in pavano…while letting the rest of the bullpen run to different teams and hoping the new import will adjust to the mlb quickly and to the potential they hope he will
i know they always seem to find a way to be in it but dare i say it this is a 2 team race between the sox and tigers with the twins being the mystery team this year
That’s what you (as in white sox and tigers fans) say every offseason. And more octobers than not, you’re both watching the Twins in the playoffs.
I know this is a little late,but just came on line, but you are correct about watching you “stinkies” play your 3 games and go home, year after year. Win a playoff game some year(s)
“you are correct”
thanks
“mediocre pitcher in pavano” ???
well being that carl pavano had a better 2010 than EVERY SINGLE WHITE SOX STARTER, I assume the following pitchers are LESS THAN MEDIOCRE:
John Danks
Mark Buehrle
Gavin Floyd
Jake Peavy
Edwin Jackson
Feel free to pull up your pants now.
No he really didn’t. Both Danks and Floyd were better than Pavano. Buehrle is debatable since him and Pavano had similar seasons last year. Unless you’re going by wins, and in that case I don’t know what to tell ya. Lets also not forget that Edwin Jackson was lights out after coming to the White Sox, and Jake Peavy has the most potential out of probably all the guys I mentioned.
Stat check!! 2010 Season
Player 1 = 15-11 3.72 ERA (0-4 against division rival)
Player 2 = 10-13 4.08 ERA (2-4 against division rival)
Player 3 = 17-11 3.75 ERA (3-1 against division rival)
Which pitcher had the best season?? Player 3, no brainer. 1 = Danks 2 = Floyd 3 = Pavano.
If I were you, I’d really consider pulling your pants back up as well.
No offense but that’s another example about how choosing stats can prove a point. Take for instance the stat WAR. I personally don’t like the stat and believe it is mostly only used to prove a point. And of course here it serves as a counter example, stats from fangraphs:
Player 1: 4.3 WAR
Player 2: 4.3 WAR
Player 3: 3.8 WAR
Player 4: 3.2 WAR
Player 1 – Danks, Player 2 – Floyd, Player 3 – Buehrle, Player 4 – Pavano.
but in a divisional race.. which is what the argument is..
Isn’t Brian’s stats more accurate to the point??
a 4.3 WAR for Danks could mean he dominated lesser teams in other divisions, but struggled versus better opposition in bigger games.
While obviously the 4.3 WAR looks much better.. I would take a pitcher who can keep potent offenses at bay, but occasionally mucks it up against lesser opponents. For the most part, you have a better chance of winning a game in which you let 4 runs in against the royals then when you let 4 runs in against the white sox or tigers.
Brett Cecil last year was 11-1 vs the AL East, including 4-0 vs the yankees with a 2.67 ERA.. Despite Marcum being a better, more consistent starter. Jays opted to trade Marcum, I feel mostly, because of his struggles vs the AL east.
He posted the ERA which was better than Danks so really, using wins is pointless.
Pavano is overrated. Over his career, he is not really much better than Blanton.
Danks peripherals overall were much better than Pavano’s, bottom line. Luck and run support play a huge role in wins. Lets look at some of those division starts for Danks, just for fun….12starts/76.1IP/37ER/54K’s/26BB’s, they aren’t spectacular, but they aren’t bad either, add that in with the way he pitched against the rest of the league which was better than Pavano, I think it’s safe to say that Danks had a better season than Pavano overall.
What’s not to like about WAR?
Are you really giving me stats such as Wins and ERA to prove that one pitcher is better than another pitcher? Seriously? I don’t care enough to post the stats that actually matter, but perhaps you should do some real research and see what pitchers actually had the better seasons.
I dont have a team in this race but its one thing to win the offseason. Its another thing completely to win the division.
I think that the Sox need to figure out who their closer is because the whole closer by committee thing never works and the backend of the rotation is still a question mark. I have serious doubts that Konerko repeats his production. I think that a .280 average with about 25-30 HRs and 90-100 rbis is closer to what ppl should expect from him.
AJ looks like a part time guy who will have to catch 145 games this year.
I expect a bounce back year from Beckham. I think that the position switch affected him more than people might think. And you have to wonder how becoming a full time DH will affect Adam Dunn who was very adamant about not wanting to be a DH.
The biggest thing is the closer spot. Not having defined roles in a bullpen can sabotage a season. Just ask the 2009 Rays or any other team that thought a closer-by-committee was a good idea.
As far as Detroit goes. Im not sold on their pitching behind Verlander. Scherzer had a nice year last year but not sold on him as a number 2 just yet. Porcello had a great rookie year but you could attribute that to having never been seen and a BABIP of just .279. He got hit harder last year. And he looked tired in September even though he finished with less innings than he did in 09. Coke has never been a full time starter in the majors and Pennys arm may fall off again or his head might get in his way. Just too many question marks in the rotation for me.
Sure the ChiSox improved themselves. But not enough to overcome the bad karma Mr. Kenny Williams and, in particular, Mr. Ozzie Guillen ALWAYS bring to the club. It is a very heavy burden for a team to overcome. Pale Hose fans deserve better.
Just a few notes:
1. Didn’t the Twins starting rotation post the best ERA in the Central last year?
2. Didn’t the Twins own the division without MVP-Morneau in the lineup?
3. Wasn’t the Twins bullpen the best in the AL, without Nathan?
Given all these factors, I’d say the Twins are hardly a “mystery team”. They’re returning a very effective rotation, they have their biggest bat returning, and they can afford to lose a few middle relief arms (while re-gaining an elite closer).
They’re very much the same team that dominated the division last year. It’s their division, until somebody takes it away from them.
Yes, both Chicago and Detroit appear improved. And it should be a good 3-team race. But to discount the defending champ – when they haven’t lost any key parts, and are returning 2 key parts who missed the majority of last year – is an exercise in wishful thinking.
key parts wouldn’t be Crain, Guerrier, Rausch and hardy?
Yeah, I agree with that. Crain had a great second half. Guerrier was always our workhorse. Rauch, I’d take over Capps. And I think Hudson and Hardy had a bigger impact, even though they did get banged up a lot. Considering what the Twins normally run out there for MI, they were a huge improvement. Nishioka can help relieve that and Casilla has a lot to prove.
I think we’re a little weaker, but I don’t know if it’s enough to drop us from division champs. Then again, last year the White Sox rotation was the best on paper and then they never showed up. I don’t know if we can expect them to be worse again.
I’m not worried, but I’m not counting either out.
No. None of the relievers you listed were even set-up men down the stretch, and Hardy was a #8 hitter who only played 2/3 of the season due to injuries.
Useful parts? Yes.
Key parts? Absolutely not.
ok so the twins who lost their starting ss and 2nd basemen and half of their pen are better than the sox…the twins who are putting a ton of eggs into one basket with the asian? they are hoping he does not flop. Not to be a jerk but he has yet to prove anything other than he is a solid hitting and fielding middle infielder in a different league that has different stadiums, pitchers, balls, stirke zones and plays a totally different game….and they are hoping the pavano continues…
Why is it all the twins fans talk trash about konerko having this unforeseen drop off that every single twins fan “knows” is going to happen…but pavano wont? And yes the twins did all that without morneau…but how do you know he will come back to what he was? and every twins fan needs to stop calling him the MVP he isnt anymore…..no one knows after a serious back and neck injury if he will come back to form…I as a sox fan hope he does, he is one of my favorite players but anyone that says “you have to expect a drop off for konerko” also has to expect one for thome, pavano, Nathan(he is coming back from a serious injury) and morneau(that was a potential career ending injury)…..and stop all the “will dunn be a good DH stuff” He has been hitting in the NL which has much much much better pitchers than the AL and he does not have to have added pressure of fielding thus his WAR will go up…his mere presence in the lineup makes the sox better it gives rios, konerko, quentin, and everyone else in the line up protection. and with sale coming on as strong as he did..remember even mauer said he was scared to face him!!! that team is very good…as for the closer..that will be sorted out be ST as either santos(scray stuff) thronton(one of if not the best left handed relievers in the MLB) or sale…so yea i would say the sox improved much more than the twins
Wow. A lot of content there…
I never said pavano or morneau were sure things.
I merely take issue with the idea the division is chicagos to lose. On paper, in january, this looks like a good 3 team race. Period.
Of course chicago and detroit upgraded more than my boys. But you needed to, too, to keep it close through september. Twins were a couple games from the best AL record. They didn’t need to make big moves to stay a contender.
but its hard to say that its for sure a 3 team race with the twins when you lose as much as they did. I never said the twins were not in it…i said that its a 3 team race but i think its more of the sox or tiger with the twins being a mystery team, in other words if something happens…a bad slide or injury bug the twins will be right in it..but with how much the tigers and sox inproved i find it hard to think the central is for sure going to be a 100% 3 team race…
and i know you never said pavano or justin were sure things but if someone is goign to say konerko will have a drop in production then you have to say along with that pavano and justin will as well…im not saying justin will be bad because even a down year for him is better than most but if konerko drops(i find it hard with actual protection in the line up other than rios) if he goes back to his career norms a .280 ish avg 25-30 hrs and 80-90 rbis thats a great year for someone that will likely be the #5 hiter
That’s where we disagree. I don’t think the Twins lost “as much as they
did”. What’d they lose? 2 MI who were on and off the DL all year. A few
bullpen arms. What’d they gain? Morneau and Nathan back from injury.
If you look at net WAR impact, I see a wash. Even with a reduced Morneau, a
human Thome & Pavano, you’re looking at a net drop of 2-3 WAR. That puts
the Twins from a 6 game division winner to right there in the middle.
And I think you overestimate the Tigers as well. What’d they gain? Vic and
Benoit. They don’t combine for the 10 WAR Detroit needs to get into the
mix.
I’d expect a drop-off for Konerko this coming year. I wouldn’t even be surprised if it was a somewhat good one.
if you do that then you have to expect a drop off from thome(even older and even said he needs more days off) pavano(older as well and has only had 1.5 good years in the past 6) nathan(coming back from serious injury) and from morneau(no one knows how he will play…back issues for a while now…and a very serious almost career ending neck injury last season there is no way to expect an instant return to norm for him) the whitesox have 2 question marks the closer(will either be santos, sale or thronton) 3rd base(but only in terms of offense, morels glove work is amazing) the twins have more…1st(only because of his injury), middle infield(every twins fan i know hates the dude who is slotted to play 2nd in casilla) and with cuddyer moving back to right you have a lefty/lefty DH platoon, which makes no sense….plus their bullpen…
Milton Bradley lol
Ever since exiting NY, Pavano has been anything but mediocre. He’s been a pretty reliable steady starter for the Twins.
We will have to wait and see about his reliability once he knows guaranteed money is his and not playing on 1 year contracts.
I’d say his time with Cleveland was anything but reliable and steady. He’s only been with the Twins for a year an a half and both times were short deals. I think the Twins needed to keep him but I’ll agree with the comments that it’s a wait and see approach.
He hated New York, and New York hated him. He loves MN, and we love him (slightly less than his mustache).
Looks like a good race in the AL Central this year! Hopefully ESPN will pay more attention to this than the AL East race, like always.
This deal better include a mustache clause.
Who has the best pitcher in the division? Twins, Frankie Liriano. The White sox have two starters on par with Pavano and Baker, Danks and Floyd. Buerhle is not the same guy as a few years ago. The Twins starting five and depth are easily the best in the division.
Liriano
Pavano
Baker
Duensing
Slowey
Plus:
Blackie
Kyle Gibson
That’s bold.
Verlander is a helluva pitcher, and with Scherzer & Porcello behind him, it’s quite possible the Tigers could have the best rotation of 2011 when it’s all said and done.
I think the White Sox rotation is overrated, since Buehrle isn’t the same guy he was, Danks hasn’t yet become an ace, and Floyd is inconsistent.
But by no means would I be surprised if any of the three put up the best 2011 numbers.
floyd is actually one of the most consistent pitchers on the sox rotation
Which was the problem last year… if Floyd is consistently a #4 starter…
you need better than that.
Verlander and Scherzer are better then any of those pitchers.
False.
Verlander and Liriano are neck-and-neck. Scherzer doesn’t even belong in the same conversation as those two.
You really need to look at metrics before making these kinds of assertions.
Ok, Since I’m so ignorant lets toss some metrics in there. Liriano and Verlander debuted same season in 2005. Verlander 25.3 WAR, Lirano 13.3 WAR. Now on to Scherzer debuted in 2008 8.1 WAR, Liriano since 2008 8.6 WAR. So Verlander is heads and shoulders above Liriano and Scherzer is on par with Liriano so far. End of story.
You can’t compare Verlander-Liriano in cumulative WAR, since Liriano had TJ in there and has taken time to get back to form. They haven’t had anywhere near the same IP.
2010:
Liriano – 3.06 XFIP, , 6.0 WAR
Verlander – 3.68 XFIP, 6.3 WAR
Scherzer – 3.84 XFIP, 3.7 WAR
Looking at 2010, when all the pitchers were healthy and starting, Verlander and Liriano are in the elite category among pitchers. Scherzer is good but not anywhere near elite (granted, Scherzer still has ridiculous upside).
yeah, and Manny has a 1.000 fielding percentage.
RE: Buerhle
. Here is a complete list of pitchers (since 2007) with at least 340 innings pitched, K/9 under 5.00 and ground ball rates under 50%. Good company
Jesse Litsch
Braden Looper
Jon Garland
Kyle Kendrick
Scott Feldman
Mark Buehrle
Paul Byrd
Nick Blackburn
Livan Hernandez
Jeff Suppan
Carlos Silva
Zach Duke
hahahahahaha carlos silva
yeah verlander is the best in the division by far….danks i would put slighty up on pavano….baker is the same type of pitcher as buehrle and gavin is better than buehrle…im not saying gavin is better than baker…im saying they are very similar both solid milddle order pitchers….jackson was a beast for the sox and in terms of raw stuff no one on the twins can touch him…and if peavy comes back 100%(he is already throwing from a mound he is on par with lariano maybe even slightly better….a full healthy sox rotation is
peavy
danks
floyd
buehrle
jackson
and sale
thats better starting pitching depth in my opinion….not taking anything away from a healthy twins rotation..but mny people say around the league out side of lirano the rest of the twins guys are middle guys….the sox have 2-3 aces in a healthy peavy, danks(he gets better every year) and when under controll jackson plus there is sale..
outside of verlander the tigers have nothing….
the royals are just plain bad…..and carmona is still a huge ? for the indians
What metrics do you prefer?
Verlander is the best if you want to look at WAR alone. If you factor in XFIP (which alot of people do), Liriano is the best in the division.
Personally, I like Verlander’s consistency (Liriano has taken a while to come back from TJ). But Liriano’s 2010 edges out Verlander. Liriano had the 2nd best XFIP in 2010, 2nd only to Halladay. Verlander ranks right between Shields and Wandy Rodriguez.
Incidentally, the 2nd best Tiger (Scherzer) ranks right next to the best White Sox (Floyd). Which makes it a bit foolhearty to say “outside of Verlander the tigers have nothing” – they have Scherzer, who’s up-and-down 2010 was on par with your best pitcher’s 2010.
And Alex Wimmers
Hey – it’s 1/19/2011, 8:53 CST! Where’s a new Pavano thread??!?!??
Liriano will have a better season than Scherzer.
“No Sh*t for $500, Alex.”
Nobody is seriously saying Scherzer even belongs in the same category as Liriano. Liriano, however, had significant media discussion last year as to whether the advanced metrics indicated he was actually the best pitcher in baseball.
I was replying to the guy that said Verlander and Scherzer are better than anyone on that list. So good job on making an argument out of nothing. Go pat yourself on your back.
Try the “reply” button next time.
Sorry, I don’t post on here everyday like you. Didn’t know it was there. Having a bad day or just a D*ck?
you sure are defensive, are you having a bad day? panties in a bunch?
Actually no, I’m having a fine day. Ha I could care a less, I’ve just never been a fan of TwinsVet and I’m a huge Twins fan. His demeanor reminds me of a Yankee fan.
Geez man, now you’ve got tigers fans sticking up for me?
Chill. We’ll see ya at Hrbek’s in April and I’ll buy you a GrainBelt. You’d like my demeanor plenty.
Also lariano should have a better season then schezer. He is your ace and schezer is our number 2
I wouldn’t act so certain on Liriano over Scherzer… both will likely have monster seasons. Scherzer is damn talented, and his numbers following his recall from Triple-A last season are nothing short of phenomenal.
I think the Vegas odds are still 80/20 that Liriano outperforms Scherzer.
Trust me, Scherzer is on my short-list of targets for my fantasy keeper league. The kid has monster potential. But he hasn’t yet translated that into a full season, whereas Liriano has.
Could Scherzer do better? Yes. But he’s still probably a year or two away from really becoming an ace.
IF HE CAN STAY healthy…..not to burn him but he has had 2 healthy season so far….and verlander will have a better season than lirano..
It is very easy for each of the three teams to argue of who is better and who has the best rotation, but it’s absolutely pointless to discuss this in January. Each team has question marks that will be answered in a month and a half. Each rotation isn’t guaranteed to stay healthy or produce. It’s easy to talk about your team in January And the only thing that is proven is the twins reach the plAyoffs more times then not. But until anyone wins a world series then making the plAyoffs just doesn’t cut it. So instead of wasting your time Arguing stats and rotations just save your breath for march/April then we can start a real discussion.
wow stop playing the nice guy card…the the hot stove thats what fan are supposed to do is argue and fight its all in good fun, for most of us, we all know nothing right now matters…peavy could come back opening day and win the cy young, or blow out his arm…lirano could blow his elbow AGAIN or be the single best pitcher in baseball….mauer could hit 30 hrs and win the MVP again or he could go down and get hurt, or simply suck this year.. this tigers could win it all or stumble out of the gate and realize the signing one of the worst fieldeing catchers was a bad idea…or heck the royals could be in the world series against the pirates…or it could be a bosox phillies world series
we all know nothing right now matters its just fun to argue because we all love the game so much..i bet all the sox fans here, including my self, respect the twins and tigers and vise versa
Seems like every off season I hear how much the Tigers and White Sox have improved themselves, and how they would finally come to dominate the Central, and the Twins had better do something or they would be looking up at them at the end of the season. Yet in the last 10 years Twins have won or tied for the division lead 6 times, the White Sox 3 times and the Tigers twice.
same ole song sox and tiger fans puff up their chests and talk big about whatever players they just over paid for and say they own the division. Chi still has a terrible defense aging players and a unpredictable rotation and Detroit has a terrible defense injury prone players and gave someone another ridiculous contract on a whim to start all this reliever nonsense that has gone on this offseason. On a plus note we have Vmart AJ and Jason Kendall to run on.
terrible defensive players??? Alexi Ramirez was the single best defensive SS in the league..he posted a uzr of 10.1….gordon beckham had a -1.2 uzr which is actually pretty respectable for a guy who moved to his 3 position in 2 years and a new position in his first full year as a mlber..ill give you konerko he had a bad defensive year..juan 13+ uzr in left….rios…a 3.8…and i know carlos is bad….and AJ(i cant find a uzr for catchers) but he posted a 1.8 war…so where are these old aging bad defenders??