JANUARY 14TH: The team is still trying to sign Pavano and hopes to have an answer over the next week, GM Bill Smith told Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune (via Twitter).
JANUARY 6TH: The Twins are nearing an agreement on a two-year deal with free-agent pitcher Carl Pavano, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The sides are making "solid progress" and should have the deal completed soon, tweets LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune.
The Nationals were rumored to have interest in Pavano, but Washington didn't make a strong push for the righty, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. He was interested in pitching for the Rockies, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post, but Colorado's interest tapered off after it re-signed Jorge De La Rosa.
Pavano, who will turn 35 on Saturday, pitched for the Twins in 2010 after they acquired him from the Indians in a midseason trade in 2009. Pavano rejuvenated his career last season (and, to a lesser extent, in '09) after an injury-riddled stint with the Yankees from 2005-08. In 2010, he posted a 3.75 ERA with a 4.8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 221 innings. He signed a one-year deal with Minnesota prior to last season.
The Twins have been hit relatively hard by free agency so far this offseason, losing Orlando Hudson, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain, but the potential return of Pavano would keep their strong starting rotation intact.
At least he’s not a yankee.
at least he’s not a Cub!
at least he’s a twin!! our gain!
I would be very happy if it was a two year deal!
glad he’s in the american league central rather than the national league central!
He’s not a player you give a multi-year. But, I call $18 million over the two year. $8 million first year, and $10 million the second.
My guess is $ 10MM per year with another $ 1MM in incentives.
My guess is it’s a 2 year/$16 million contract… his agent really overplayed their hand dancing with the Nationals and Rangers and waited way too long to come back to the table with Minnesota.
You keep thinking that.
I might agree with that. Fangraphs have him valued at $12 million or so, and he was looking for 3/30.
$8M to a 37-year old pitcher? lol
By the way, he turns 35 on the 8th, so you failed on two things.
he’ll be 36 during the last year of his contract; thank you for showing your brilliance.
If it’s a two year contract, he’ll be 35 in 2011 and 36 in 2012, so no.
Make that the third fail.
I still don’t like the idea of giving Pavano a multi-year deal. I know that that’s what it would take to land him but he’s just got such a huge injury history.
Well, he has made 65 starts over the last two seasons, so who’s to say he’s any more of a risk than anyone else they could have signed this late in the winter. Two years isn’t bad at all, especially considering a guy like Ted Lilly got three.
Thome or Vlad time.
Great sign for the Twins! Adds a great deal of depth to the staff. My guess would be 2/17m. He has been a great asset since joining the Twins. Welcome back Carl. Let’s get a solid bullpen piece and a nice bench/DH bat (Vladdy, Thome) so the AL Central beat down can begin.
Unless both Thome and Pavano take less than market, they can’t afford both
Alright, finally! It’s risky giving him a multi-year deal, but two years instead of three is not so bad.
Pavano 2010:
Vs. Detroit, 3 starts, 19.2 IP, 1- 1, 5.94 ERA, .293 avg
Vs. Chicago, 4 starts, 27.0 IP, 1- 0, 5.33 ERA, .319 avg
Thats a little surprising his numbers were that bad since he did very well against both of those teams in 2009, compiling a combined 6-2 record with a sub-3 ERA.
I believe that a large part of the motivation in the Twins getting Pavano was that he always beat the Tigers when he was with Cleveland. He continued that success with Minnesota until his last start against them that season, but then the Tigers did very well against him last year. I think he’s probably due for a regression going forward. He’ll effectively cost the Twins two top draft picks.
I think you’re right about Pavano’s success vs. AL Central teams as a motivating factor for the trade with CLE.
I believe it’s just one pick that the Twins miss out on, and it would have most likely been a second rounder because the top 20 or so picks were protected, and it would’ve only been a third round pick had it been the Nats who signed him.
Two picks. One supplemental “sandwich” round pick, and one late first or early second round pick. Pavano is a Type A free agent.
There is never a case where a team only gets one pick that is given to them from the team that signs a free agent. A Type B free agent will net his former club a supplemental pick only. A type A free agent will net his former team two picks- one sandwich and one from the signing team. Of course, they have to offer arbitration and the player declines to get the comp picks.
old pitchers suffer significant decline is skill? who knew?
I don’t believe for one second that you actually believe the difference in results vs CWS and DET from ’09 to ’10 is the result of getting old. You’re just trolling and looking for opportunities to make smart-ass anti-Pavano comments.
Who’s trolling? There has to be some measure of luck in the very small samples both in 09 and 2010. Pavano had a much better season in 2010 overall, yet his numbers against the division rivals were much worse. No way you can attribute the 2010 numbers to a decline in skill, given his overall improvement. Helps if you have guys that can catch the ball behind you, too!
You’re right, my bad. I wasn’t accusing you BTW.
This is why I like this deal for the White Sox!
I wonder what this means for the Phillies and “Kentucky Joe” Blanton
Ok, this is good. Now on to the Designated Hitter. Jim Thome, please and thank you! We still need more arms!! Bill, we need more arms!!
Good, resign the guy that got absolutely lit up by the team’s biggest competition last year, and will be next year. 🙂
“The Twins have been hit relatively hard by free agency so far this offseason . . . but the potential return of Pavano would keep their strong starting rotation intact.” Wow. The starting rotation is the most glaring issue facing the Twins heading into 2011 (in my opinion). Yes the bullpen and middle infield are of some concern because there are a lot of unknowns there but yikes . . . I mean, Baker? Blackburn? Slowey? Deunsing? Those guys don’t exactly inspire confidence and, as Yanquis fans like to point out, it’s not exactly like Pavano or Liriano have ever proven to be legit “big-game” pitchers . . .
the Hardy move was one of the biggest oopsies of the offseason
I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt on that one. I will make up my mind sometime after the season starts, not before pitchers and catchers even report.
A multi-year deal to an injury prone pitcher coming off a career year. Why does this sound like a bad idea?
Pavano went to the best team for him, the Twins. It’s win-win for both parties. Hopefully he’ll post another sub 4 ERA, low Whip, and low walk season in 2011….now if he can ease up on serving up the longball….
Well, I felt like the whole time that we definitely needed him for 2011. I can’t see any of our other pitchers being able to replace his 200 innings. Our other starters would kill the bullpen while Pavano saved the bullpen a ton last year. We’ll need that again this year, especially while losing a horse like Guerrier.
I wish it was only one year, because I feel like we don’t need him in 2012. I’ll be happy if it’s less than 10 a year. I think it’ll be disappointing otherwise.
Pavano’s league leading 7 complete games helped the bullpen a lot too!
Yeah, he was a great asset. That is something he needs to continue next year because the bullpen will desperately need it.
hopefully for the Twins, Nathan will return to form. There should be some arms on the farm to replace Crain and Guerrier.
The pen will probably be okay and I’m sure there are guys out there that could fill in just fine. I just feel like we know what we had in Guerrier. He was a workhorse who was way more good than bad.
To be clear though, I definitely didn’t want the Twins to give him the contract that the Dodgers just did.
I like 2 years for a total of $17 million plus relatively generous incentives.
Nex step is inking Thome or Vlad. I like Thome’s production this past year and his role in the clubhouse. Vlad on the other hand brings righthanded balance to the lineup.
Not finished the pitching staff retool as yet either.
I don’t think it is too much to pay Pavano for 2 years. There is risk, but if he puts up 210 innings with a 4.50 ERA it pays off. His biggest assest is to be an innings eater and mentor for the young guys.
How about this retool option: Trade Slowey, promote Gibson.
Liriano
Pavano
Baker
Duensing
Gibson
If they were to trade Slowey, they would be best to wait until the trade deadline, since he’ll yield much more to the Twins (provided he has a decent season). Trading him now wouldn’t fetch much, even from the starter desperate Yankees 😉
I think Gibson should stay in the minors til mid-season. I don’t think he’s ready yet. He barely saw time at AAA and I don’t want him to be rushed.
I completely agree. There’s no need to rush Gibson to the big leagues. Everyone remembers the results of rushing Liriano several years ago. The Twins are not desperate for starting pitching.
Yeah, with Pavano, they definitely don’t need to rush Gibson. Without him, it gets tougher, I think. I’ll be glad Pavs is back for 2011.
I think the Twins rushed Garza as well. I thought he was awful in his first stint in the majors.
I would agree with the statements about waiting until midseason for a Gibson promotion, although I think he is more ready to go than Garza and Liriano were. Another option would be to promote him early and have him pitch out of the bullpen. That way his innings could be kept low while getting experience against major league hitters.
I would be very curious to see what we could get in exchange for Slowey.
I feel like they’d call him up mid-season and then throw him into the bullpen. I think they’ve done that with a few guys.
I’m curious to know what they’d get for Slowey too, but I don’t think it would be too much. Also, I’m not sure if I’d like adding an older pitcher (Pavano) while subtracting a younger pitcher (Slowey).
The problem with Slowey is he can’t get out of the 6th inning. Pavano may be 10 years older than Slowey, but he has pitched 200+ innings the last two years
I can’t disagree with that and that can be said about all of our starters. Pavano is the only one who consistently protects the bullpen and pitches like a bulldog (Blackburn does at times, but not consistently).
I just don’t know if Pavano will be needed past 2011, even if they do give him a two year. And that plus the fact that I don’t think we’ll get anything worth it in a Slowey trade, makes me not want to do that.
What’s up with removing my posts? They’re all true. I didn’t lie on any of them.
Im glad the wait for his market to decline option worked 2 years is defiantly better than 3 but I think Pavano provides what he did last year a valuable innings eater pitcher who when on can control a lineup to death. He is not the ideal #2 but he really was the only option without going way above payroll or trading talent. I think he turned out to be a very good fit when he was acquired and will continue to be.
Pavano is a good #3 starter. Someone who can eat a lot of innings and win 15 or 15 games. If we sign him for 2 years 16 / 17 million that would be a decent contract. Unfortunately, the Twins have had limited success grooming their other starters o fill #1 or #2. Liriano cracks under pressure but has the stuff of a #1 or #2. Slowey and Baker can’t get past the 5 inning and Blackburn is up and down as sinker ballers typically are. Duensing is decent but doesn’t have top of the rotation stuff. Gibson might be guy who steps into that role in a year or two. He has ace like stuff.
After the losses in the bullpen this offseason I think keeping Pavano became more important that I originally expected. Someone like Brandon Webb may offer more upside, but he’s also a much bigger injury risk right now and with the losses in the bullpen having someone who has consistently pitched well the last 1 and a half season since coming to Minnesota and has proven he can pitch 200+ innings is important since the bullpen may need more help than it his in years past. Once it became apparent that the Twins likely wouldn’t be getting all that valuable draft picks in return for Pavano considering the most likely alternative suitor Washington’s 1st rounder was protected and 2nd was going to Philly I’m glad they are keeping him instead of getting another sandwich pick and a 3rd rounder, he’s more valuable to the team than that right now.