It's never too early to try to predict which players will be traded in July. Here's a look at American League possibilities.
This is not meant as a slight toward the Orioles, Indians, Royals, and Mariners, but their chances of contention in 2011 appear slim. Given their division, the Blue Jays face long odds as well. Anything is possible; I pegged the Padres as deadline sellers before the 2010 season.
- If the Orioles shift into sell mode, veterans on one-year deals or in the last year of their contracts such as Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Justin Duchscherer, and Cesar Izturis could be available. Though they're controlled beyond 2011, Luke Scott, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Josh Bell, Nolan Reimold, and Felix Pie might not be off-limits either. Keep in mind that if the Orioles are hovering around .500 at the trade deadline they may decide to keep everyone or even add a piece.
- Grady Sizemore headlines the Indians' list of movable trade chips, if he has a solid, healthy first half. Fausto Carmona would be tougher to pry loose, while recent signees Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera, and Nick Johnson should be available. Shin-Soo Choo, though under team control through 2013, could command multiple top prospects if the Indians decide to cash him in.
- Joakim Soria could reasonably be part of the next good Royals club, so he probably won't be available. Jason Kendall, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Robinson Tejeda, Melky Cabrera, and Wilson Betemit should be fair game.
- The Mariners recently stated they won't be trading Felix Hernandez. Instead, Chone Figgins, Jack Wilson, David Aardsma, Jack Cust, Brandon League, Chris Ray, Manny Delcarmen, and Erik Bedard could find themselves in the rumor mill.
- The Blue Jays held on to their relievers last summer. If they lessen their demands this year, they could offer Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Shawn Camp. Juan Rivera, Aaron Hill, and Edwin Encarnacion seem like potential trade candidates as well.
- Kelly Shoppach and James Shields of the Rays, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron of the Red Sox, Michael Young of the Rangers, and Edwin Jackson of the White Sox could be trade chips even with these teams in contention. And don't forget the possibility of would-be contenders flopping badly and selling off parts, similar to the '10 Mariners.
- One thing you will not notice in this group of speculative trade candidates for the American League is a frontline starting pitcher. Even identifying a good surprise candidate is tough, unless things go awry for the Twins and they field offers for Francisco Liriano.
Disagree about Encarnacion. I’d say if he’s putting up numbers where he’s an above average DH then the value is too good to move him, and if he’s not his defensive woes will prevent him from being a realistic option for a contender.
thats faulty logic.. If he has a good year at the dish a team might take him on for playoff depth.
There will always be above average DH’s available for cheap in the offseason, if E5 is doing that well, he is gone
In some ways it would be a bit of an athletic waste, but considering that he is blocked, do you think the Jays would give Thames some time at first to make him more flexible and a solid prospect option for 1B behind Lind (the farm is pretty bare there)? This would give them someone that could DH, rotate in the OF, and play 1B. Certainly there would be room on the 2012 team for a player like that.
It’s a possibility I suppose.. However I was really impressed with David Coopers fielding, the guy looked like a young overbay out there. Obviously his bat needs to come around but he could be an option as well.
Pretty sure that if EE is putting up a 30hr season and teams come asking, the Jays would move him if something valuable is offered. (also assuming they are not gutted by injury).
Shouldn’t the season start first before we start talking about mid-season crap?
That’s not how we roll…we’ve already talked about the 2011-12 offseason extensively, so our timeline is all over the place.
I think its fun. Plus, come mid-season, they can then link back to this article showing how insightful (or not) they were.
This article seems valid enough as long as all these teams aren’t playoff threats. This seems to be the case, which unfortunately means only the Yanks, Red Sox, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, A’s, Angels, and Rangers are playoff contenders. Although, I would love for any of these “sellers” to surprise us all – most likely would be the Jays or O’s.
You neglected to mention the Rays and you just called the Angels a playoff contender. ESPN much?
the orioles?…lets get serious. there’s a zero percent chance that they finish ahead of 3 of the yankees, red sox, rays and blue jays.
Tim, I have to also wonder if Masterson with Cleveland might be one of them.
Tim how about a guy like Masterson from Cleveland? I know Boston wanted him back as a reliever at one time
Jason Kendall is available now! please!
Here is my problem with saying that Sizemore is a great trade candidate.
According to Cot’s if he is traded: he receives $0.5M bonus and his salaries increase by 10%. The $8.5 million team option for 2012 becomes a player option.
Now, if he is healthy and traded, he would only be a half a season rental. A healthy Grady Sizemore is going to get much more than $8.5 on the open market. So, the Indians would be trading away 1.5 years of cost effective control over him, while the receiving team would have to pay him $1.25 million more than Cleveland would and they are only getting him for half a year.
Now, if he isn’t healthy and still traded. The new team would still have to pay him more ($2 million over the life of the deal) and if he isn’t healthy, he would exercise his player option for then $9.35 million.
Neither scenario is appealing to a team that would have to give up promising prospects to get Sizemore.
Shorter list: Orioles players who are not “trade candidates”