A few stray items of note on this Thursday evening …
- MVP voters who omit pitchers from their ballots should be recused from voting, opines Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com. Voting rules stipulate that all players, including pitchers and DHs, be considered for the MVP, so Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay are legitimate candidates, explains Ringolsby.
- The Tigers' signing of Victor Martinez to a four-year contract is proving to be one of the better moves of the offseason, opines Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.
- Nationals righty Chien-Ming Wang has been durable upon returning to the big leagues after missing two-plus years to injury, but he has trouble warming up his surgically repaired right shoulder before starts, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Because of this, Wang, a free agent at season's end, has been struggling early in his starts before settling in.
- Each of the eight likely playoff teams boasts a strong relief tandem, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. Half of them were formed in the past year: Last offseason, the Diamondbacks traded for David Hernandez and signed J.J. Putz, and the Tigers signed Joaquin Benoit. In July, the Brewers traded for Francisco Rodriguez and the Rangers acquired Mike Adams.
Judging the biases of the MVP voters that way is unfair and using reverse discrimination. That’s like saying if you DON’T think Verlander or Halladay are MVP’s, you’re bigoted against them. If someone honestly doesn’t believe a pitcher deserves MVP, then so be it. They shouldn’t be forced to change by way of Politically Correct pressure. It should come as a revelation from within them. It’s like saying the people who didn’t vote for Jamie Foxx, Halle Berry, Denzel Washington, Ken Watanabe, etc. i.e. persons of color for their top choice in Academy Awards voting were also racist and should have been recused.
You can’t measure this sort of thing. You just gotta trust voters to make a fair judgment.
I agree..
I am of the belief that pitchers have the cy young and the position players have the mvp… I wouldn’t not vote for a pitcher because he’s a pitcher, but I would vote Cabrera, Bautista, Ellsbury, Granderson etc over Verlander..
But I would vote Verlander over any of them for the cy young
They have a silver slugger and gold glove for positional players. Verlander is the back bone of the rotation,were would the Tigers be without him.
Pitchers can win gold gloves too, so I don’t see a point there
and there are a bunch of silver sluggers handed out, hardly as distinguished as an MVP
MVP is most valuable PLAYER. Batters can get the Hank Aaron award. If the media hyped it more, it would be like the Cy Young, and then the MVP would be fair to all players worthy.
okay,
so explain to me how Justin Verlander has been more valuable to his team than Miguel Cabrera, and go.
You want me to compare the subjective flavor battle between apples and oranges?
Having watched around 90% of tigers games over the past 2 decades +, I can say that Verlander passes the eye test, the smell test, and the numbers test. I can see how the team vibes around him. Its a different thing… Dude owns the team. Cabrera was much better last year and the team was crap. I can also say Verlander has been involved in 800+ ABs, where Cabrera only gets his own (albeit amazing ABs).
But I should ask you: How is Cabrera more “valuable”? When you’re trying to quantify something like Value in sports, and trying to compare two different positions with totally different statistics, it has to come down to the trusty old eye test. Sorry…
If it’s an issue with semantics, then make it the Most Valuable Batter.
nitpick!
cabrera 2010: 170 wRC+
cabrera 2011: 169 wRC+
I don’t think AB’s or Batters faced is a good stat to go by.
I mean after all, I’m sure AJ Burnett has faced 2x the amount of batters as Verlander. In other words, that’s not a good thing.
Now you’re just being ridiculous.
lol a little exaggeration with the 2X there of course, but you get my point.
I was actually being sarcastic and referring to you saying that facing a lot of batters is a bad thing, but I can see where you would think I was talking about the exaggeration.
Ahhh…
Take away verlanders WAR and they arent leading the division by much. Not that cabby is worth any less, but Verlander has been a lock all year. His victories after a tigers loss and consistency have been completely and totally irreplaceable.
On top of that, Verlander will face nearly 1.5x’s as many batters as cabrera will have ABs. If the argument is that he doesn’t do as much as an everyday player, the numbers will suggest he will impact many more at bats than any hitter will in the league this year.
so your argument is then that no position player should ever win MVP since SP face more batters than position players have ABs?
you’ve also completely left out defensive responsibilities. Which would add another 1000 ab’s to miggy’s duties/
Also, who decided we should look at ABs instead of Games? Miggy has a chance to impact ≈ 150 games, Verlander has a chance to impact ≈ 35.
No. I’m saying that the workload isn’t as lopsided as some make it seem. I don’t like how it seems a pitcher is immediately discredited for workload.
Simply put, I differentiate between pitchers and all other position players. Cy Young is already basically treated as the unofficial MVP of for pitchers while MVP is the position /offensive player’s version of a Cy Young. Silver sluggers, golden gloves, etc. are all too numerous in recipients and questionable in standards for earning one to qualify as an equivalent to the Cy Young.
A Cy Young is nothing to sneeze at and in some ways looks far more prestigious down the road than an MVP does, in my humble opinion, because one way an offensive player earns MVP is by getting RBI’s, showing lots of power, etc. and all that can be heavily influenced by the players around you in the batting order and the stadiums you play in- look at Joe Mauer, Jason Bay and David Wright- all power outage victims due to new larger home fields . While pitching is influenced by these things, too, strike out rates, etc. are much more individually tangible stats.
Therefore, a Cy Young is a much more appropriate recognition of pitching excellence than an MVP award and if a pitcher can get the Cy Young AND MVP award, what does that leave hitters? It leaves them with nothing.
“A Cy Young is nothing to sneeze at and in some ways looks far more
prestigious down the road than an MVP does, in my humble opinion,
because one way an offensive player earns MVP is by getting RBI’s,
showing lots of power, etc. and all that can be heavily influenced by
the players around you”
kind of like wins and ERA?
i don’t see a case for the cy/mvp award standards being less questionable than gold gloves/silver sluggers/hank aaron awards. they’re all pretty suspect
Felix Hernandez last year being hopeful, the beginning of the enlightenment
Doubt it, I still think they gave it to him by accident.
a league-wide plot to make him feel like he’d accomplished something big so he’d demand a trade out of seattle
“so explain to me how Justin Verlander has been more valuable to his team than Miguel Cabrera, and go. ”
No one? No one wants to go after this one? Okay…
Fangraphs:
Miguel Cabrera – 5.5 WAR
Justin Verlander – 6.4 WAR
B-R:
Miguel Cabrera – 5.7 WAR
Justin Verlander – 7.6 WAR
The only real non-apples to oranges stat between pitchers and batters places Verlander as much more valuable than Cabrera. Even B-R, who don’t weigh defense (Cabrera’s weak point) as heavily as Fangraphs generally, has Cabrera almost two wins lower. I’m usually more for giving the MVP to a position player, but Verlander’s having a season that one could conceivably justify a vote for him, B-R has him in second place for WAR behind a guy on a fourth place team (Something far too many voters take into account).
WAR for pitchers is highly, highly flawed and should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
Good. I like salt. A lot.
And yeah, I know it’s flawed, but it’s really the only stat we can use to apply an even vague method of apples to apples when comparing the value of a pitcher to that of a position player. The volatility of the stat is why I provided WAR from both B-R and Fangraphs. Basically, the web’s two best resources for player stats both consider Verlander more valuable than Cabrera.
those same 2 resources both think that Brendan Morrow has been worth more to the Jays then Ricky Romero…
I also enjoy salt.
Like I said, it’s flawed, but it’s the only thing we really have to work off of other than conjecture and, well, conjecture will never definitely win an argument.
Personally, conjecturewise, I go with Verlander over Cabrera.
I especially enjoy salt on french fries.
bout to have me some salted fries right now. .
I may go with Verlander over Miggy, but I wouldn’t go with Verlander over Ellsbury, Bautista, Granderson.
like listed below, I dont have a problem with a pitcher winning the MVP, but it would have to be a ridonculous season and no position player should be close.
Theres 4 or 5 guys putting up MVP seasons. one of them should get it imo
As I noted elsewhere, Verlander wouldn’t be my pick for MVP (I think I’d rank him fourth, Bautista, Ellsbury, Granderson, Verlander), but this all started as a response to the specific request of:
“explain to me how Justin Verlander has been more valuable to his team than Miguel Cabrera, and go. ”
The only quantifiable way to compare a pitcher to a position player is via WAR and two different resources for WAR say that Verlander is more valuable the Cabrera.
oh ya i hear you..
I wasn’t patronizing the guy earlier, I was sincerely asking for someone to persuade me.
No one really cares about the silver slugger award, and gold gloves are useless. To be honest, if you give a pitcher an MVP, no hitter in the entire league receives anything most consider worthy.
I’m always in favor of giving it to an everyday player over a once a week player. However that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t vote a pitcher ever. Only time I would vote a pitcher is if no hitter is having a spectacular season. Unfortunately that isn’t the case.
We know Verlander will get the Cy Young, so now if Verlander gets MVP, then A-Gone, Ellsbury, Granderson, Bautista and others all get nothing.
Bautista for Cy Young, I like it!
If the only 3 pitchers in the league were Bautista, Burnett and Lackey, I’d give it to Bautista
I think the point was that since the ballots aren’t just your pick, but your top selections, that if you exclude pitchers as a rule that you are violating the rules.
this man is right. halle berry for MVP
I’ll second that vote
Damn straight
Well done but probably too subtle for most on here
Or my mind’s just in the gutter today
she has my vote
Most Valuable P***y? What’s her WAR (Wangs Absolutely Rigid) rating?
I don’t agree. The MVP ballot is for every player. Therefore every player should be considered in the ballot. If someone then decides not to consider a group of players, say pitchers or DH’s, then they are being unfair and not keeping to the rules of the MVP-voting and should not be allowed to vote. The key word here is consider which does not equal to the word vote.
In practice this is hard to enforce, but if someone says that they think the MVP is a batters award then that is a good indication that they are not even considering pitchers for the award and thus being unfair and not abiding the rules of the award. It is not difficult to take action from there on.
Verlander has been great this season nobody is taking that away from him and the Cy Young he will be recieving says as much. He should get some votes I just think their are too many standout performances to warrant him winning it. In 99 Pedro struck out 313 batters with a 2.07 ERA giving up only 9HR and 37 walks, and he still lost to PUDGE! Sorry Verlander shouldn’t get it.
Pedro was amazing.
pedro and randy johnson struck out a combined total of 677 batters that year and together produced 21.3 WAR
thus my avatar. i miss those days. a lot
If Halle Berry for MVP deserved a “Damn straight” I can’t even say what this deserves because it would probably get me banned. So I’ll just stick with, yeah me too.
Just because one pitcher who deserved it didn’t get it doesn’t mean another pitcher who deserves it shouldn’t get it. That’s not to say that I think Verlander should win the MVP because I don’t, but to say that Verlander shouldn’t get it because Pedro didn’t get it is faulty logic.
When you look at Pudges numbers that year and compare them to Adrian gonzalez, Granderson, Ellsbury, and Bautistas its not such simple logic. All of those guys are having seasons every bit as good as Pudges if not better and yet Pedro still lost to Pudge. So for Verlander to deserve an award with a worse season than Pedro in 99, when the contenders are by all rights better than they were when Pudge won its hard to see why Verlander deserves the award. Unless the idea is that over time a pitchers standards for winning an MVP should lower.
I don’t care what anyone else’s numbers are, or when they put them up, or who put them up, or anything, anything at all. The logic is very simple; just because one pitcher who deserved the MVP didn’t get it doesn’t, and shouldn’t, disqualify any other pitcher from winning the award. It really is that simple. The two are not connected.
“We were wrong once, so now we should be wrong every time.” It’s faulty logic. I agree with the conclusion (Verlander shouldn’t win the MVP) I just don’t agree with how you got to the conclusion.
Its not that simple though. He doesnt deserve it for those who have done better and lost. He also doesnt deserve it because Bob Gibson did better and won it. And He still doesn’t deserve it because the bar is set and he just isnt having THAT legendary of a year. Its a standout year from a pitcher thats it, a CY Young nothing more nothing less. The league made the standards what they are and Verlander doesn’t meet them, not even close. The other arguments just illustrate the leagues stance on pitcher MVP’s over the last 10-20 years and all of those factors will run through voters heads I guarantee it. He isnt even close to an MVP.
you’re missing the point. but he’s not missing yours.
just because this is how it was done IN THE PAST does not make a pitcher NOW less deserving if he puts up a better season than any hitter in the league
So re write the standards for one of the less worthy pitchers to be considered? I think not. Seems like you guys want him to win it just to win it. I’ve not heard a single arguement of why he deserves it more than anyone else. Please do tell, show me how Verlanders stats this year are more valuable than any of the real serious candidates who who all have elite hitting numbers and field 150+ games a season. And im not missing his point im saying his counters arn’t as straight forward as he seems to think.
READ “That’s not to say that I think Verlander should win the MVP because I don’t, but to say that Verlander shouldn’t get it because Pedro didn’t get it is faulty logic,” or “I agree with the conclusion (Verlander shouldn’t win the MVP) I just don’t agree with how you got to the conclusion.” I don’t think Verlander should win the MVP, I just think your logic is faulty. If a pitcher is the most valuable player in his league in any given year I think he should get the MVP (based on the current set of rules for who is eligible for the award), just because someone got screwed out of it in the past doesn’t mean someone else should in the future.
I never made that argument. The argument was that he didnt deserve it because the standards for pitchers are incredibly high for an MVP as they should be. Example Pedro. Example Randy. Never said they were screwed just pointed out they had better years and still fell short so the league shares my views. If you think they got screwed thats your deal stop implying i think they were. I think the CY Young is plenty of prestige. I see no prejudice in the leagues standards so if they lower their standards it would have to be for a far more legendary performance. Maybe a full year of Strasburg if the Nats make the WS and he gets 300K’s.
It still doesn’t matter. None of it. Not what Pedro did, not what Gibson did, not what voters will be thinking, nothing. The logic that one deserving pitcher didn’t get it, so none should is foolish. MVP is relative to players that year, not a decade or more ago. Pedroia won his MVP with ≈ 7.0 WAR, this year someone is going to walk away with over 8.0 WAR and no MVP award, so by your logic the standard will be set for position players and we should probably take Pedroia’s MVP award back.
If Pedro had put up the exact same numbers and still managed to only be the 7th most valuable player that year (according to WAR or whatever), he would not have deserved the MVP. If Verlander had put up the numbers he has this year and that had been good for the highest WAR in the league he would be the deserving MVP. The two are not connected in any way.
No I never said Pedro deserved it, I said he didnt win it big difference. I asked for it back because Pudge juiced and he finished 2nd. Meaning the bar for MVP pitchers was set and it was higher than Pedro so its alot higher than Verlander. And I agree with it that way.
I said Pedro deserved it, and it doesn’t really matter whether he deserved it or not, not to the point I’m trying to make to you anyway. I don’t care if there was a pitcher once who accumulated 75 WAR in one season and didn’t get the award; that is not a logical reason to keep a pitcher who is clearly the most valuable player in his league now from getting the award. The circumstances don’t matter at all, only the logic, and the logic is faulty.
You could apply the same logic to any other situation and I would tell you the same thing. If I run a business and I have a male candidate for CEO and a female candidate for CEO, and the male is the better candidate I make him the CEO. Then 10 years later I need a new CEO again. Again I have a male candidate, and a female candidate. This time the female is the better candidate, but she isn’t as good as the female 10 years before who didn’t get the job. So by your logic I should take the male candidate because the new female candidate isn’t as good as the old one and the “bar has been set” for female CEO candidates, and it doesn’t matter that she is better than the current male candidate.
Do you still not see why that logic is faulty?
No because I agree with a much higher bar for a pitcher to win MVP I guess. Has nothing to do with wanting some other pitcher to win one I just believe the season has to be legendary for a starting pitcher to win one. And Verlander just isn’t having that miraculous of a year. Its a very good year for a pitcher its not that special though. I value everday performances more than pitchers. Jobs and awards arn’t similar so using a hiring as an example of logic used doesnt really fit. The bar was set for a pitcher to win MVP, hiring a CEO is a completely different beast. For one you could be a tenured member of the company with 20 years experience but no degree and still lose the job to a CEO from another company with three years experience. So logic and buisness doesnt really fit. Buisness you take the best you can get (If the choices all have degrees otherwise the choice is often illogical anyway) In baseball you take a position player for MVP 99% of the time when the choices are excellent and a pitcher 1% or less if he is legendary.
That’s not what the rules for the award say, and that’s not how it is supposed to work. Who gets to decide when a pitcher’s season is “legendary” enough? Should they be completely ineligible unless their season is deemed “good enough?”
I’m done though, “So logic [and buisness] doesnt really fit” was enough for me.
Its is how it works and its something I agree with. I value one more than the other. Voters for the award decide when a season is legendary and when its soo amazing they cant ignore it a pitcher will win again. So Verlander will rightfully finish in the top five. Good battle. This arguement has been brought to you by Captains 100 and lots of vodka.
i refuse to read that many walls of text, but it looked painful
I’m bleeding. I don’t even know where it’s coming from, but I’m bleeding.
Hahah its a baseball debate it is healthy for the sport. And im mildly scratched too bud so whatever. You were like 10hrs from getting the white towel from me hahaha.
I feel like the end of a UFC fight where the two combatants share an over enthusiastic hug and rub foreheads. Your alright.
Thanks, you’re alright too. But I’m not hugging you or rubbing foreheads…
No hugging it out……damn.
It should also be noted that Pedro put up those numbers during the height of the steriod era…Verlander’s having a great season, but his performance is much less impressive given the current environment
To be fair, you really have no idea what today’s players are on for at least another 10 years. Deer antler, frog slime, who really knows? Plus if you listened to Canseco, most juiced players didn’t properly use their juice.
I hear toad spittle and eye of newt have miraculous powers
Verlander should be in everybody’s top 6-7 but no way he should win it.
Agree
Cabrera should win it. He WAS the MOST VALUBLE PLAYER BY FAR last year. He wont knock in 130 this year like 2010 but the Tigers are headed to the playoffs and he should get some recognition.
You can make an argument for him as 2010 AL MVP, but it’s a stretch to think that he’s the best “BY FAR”. Hamilton had a better OPS and wOBA, as well as rating well above-average in center (+9.8), while Cabrera was relatively weak, at least according to UZR (-6.2). It’s an easily arguable case (defense maybe shouldn’t be weighted very heavily for MVPs, Hamilton played only 133 vs. Cabrera’s 150, better walk rate, BAPIP irregularities, etc etc) for Cabrera, but he wasn’t clearly better than Hamilton or vise versa in 2010.
Yes he was.
You sure showed him a thing or two
I got nuthin
Because Matt Moore said so
If anyone knows pitching, it’s Matt Moore…
Pitchers should be just as likely to win the MVP as positional players are to win the Cy Young.
pitchers should be just as likely to win the silver slugger/hank aaron award as position players are to win the cy young
they are all players. all of them are capable of being (though not all equally likely to be) the most valuable player
I see both sides of it..
Position players do have more of an impact, because they start more games..
However the games that pitchers start, they have more of an impact over that game than anyone else..
position players usually get 500-700 ABs. where as pitchers usually face around 1,000 batters.
so I don’t buy the argument that pitchers don’t have the same influence, I just think they have the cy young already, and there are plenty of position players that are worthy.
right. to actually get my vote, i think it would take an exceedingly rare situation in which a pitcher had an absolutely spectacular season and there also wasn’t an amazing season by any position player
it’s not likely, but it’s not impossible. i wouldn’t vote for verlander, but i can see myself voting for pedro/randy in 99. randy threw nearly 300 innings that year and pedro had manny beat by like 5 freakin’ WAR
not something i’d fuss about if a position player got it instead, but i wouldn’t see anything wrong with calling a 12 WAR guy the most valuable player in his league – even if he was a pitcher
No…It should take a ridiculously over the top performance for a pitcher to win an MVP. They pitch 35 times tops players are out there up to 150 games, basic logic says they are less valuable. So to get by that those 35 starts need to be unbelievable. My standards for a pitching MVP would be an Whip under 1 an ERA under 2 and 300+ strikeouts plus a playoff appearance. Anything else is an insult. And AGAIN pudge should be forced to return that trophy to Pedro. Canseco returning his MVP to Greenwell would be nice too.
What are your standards for fielders? And if no-one reaches those standards in a season, should the MVP not be awarded?
It is silly to set such standards. The same way it is silly that you expect a play-off appearance. The MVP is an award for the regular season. Each year has different stats and the award is handed to the person who had the most impact in that year, not compared to all other years. Comparing players in light of history is done in the hall of fame.
The tricky bit here is most valuable. Granderson, Gonzalez, Elsbury all have very good numbers and years and are certainly candidates for gold gloves, silver slugger and/or hank aaron award. However, would their team be in the same place as either one of them was not on their team? I think so. That makes them therefore less valuable.
Consider Verlander here: Would the tigers be in the same place without him? Probably not. Not just because he pitches 35 games, but also because he pitches long outings saving the bullpen. Subsequently the bullpen can be used the extensively before and after he pitches allowing a youngster like Porcello and a washed up veteran like Penny to pitch without making those days automatic losses.
Now consider for example, Paul Konerko. Would the White Sox be in the same position without him? Or Jose Bautista. Would the Blue Jays be in the same position without him? The MVP is not about who has the best numbers, GG SS Hank Aaron and Cy Young are for that. The MVP is about which player had the largest impact on their team. That is something to keep in mind when you play the numbers game.
Also note pitches in the AL can’t win Silver Slugger awards unlike the NL
Pitchers should be able to win if they pitch well enough
verlander has been great but the mvp he is not. Bautistta has been mvp by numbers but hes a shining star in a dim sky up in toronto. toss up between ellsbury and granderson to this point. but granderson scored and driven in a great number of runs, the most by far. he is the most valuable player in the AL.
“but granderson scored and driven in a great number of runs, the most by far” You do realize that if Granderson had been in Toronto he wouldn’t have scored and driven in such a great number of runs, right? Is MVP a team award now? What if Bautista had been in New York? His “real” numbers would still be the same but he would have scored and driven in a greater number of runs, greater than Granderson even, would he suddenly be a “real” MVP candidate then?
How about defense, should it not count at all? We could go with just offensive numbers I suppose. I like more advanced stats so I’d go with wOBA which brings us back to Bautista (imagine that…) but “we” already decided that “hes a shining star in a dim sky up in toronto” so he doesn’t count (I wonder if that hurts his feelings?… anyway) so that would make it between Ortiz and Miggy with Granderson way back in 5th (well 4th because Bautista is sub-human).
Maybe you don’t like the advanced stats? I guess we could use OPS for offense instead of wOBA. Which brings us to Bautista again (dammit!) skip him and you’ve got Ortiz, with Granderson again in 5th. So I guess if we are ignoring silly things like defense (and position) that would make Ortiz the MVP. Maybe you don’t like giving MVP to a DH, so you could also go for Miggy I suppose.
unfortunately, we all know Bautista is not going to get it….
I’m pretty much convinced Granderson has it all but locked up. 🙁
Probably, and if he does get it there are likely 2-3 guys who got boned IMO.
Being the most valuable player has a lot to do with your team. If your teams results are meaningless than how can you be the most valuable player in the league. My first post was kind of in jest but in my opinion the MVP should come from a competing team. And btw, I love advanced stats but, as your loud mouth probably knows, wOBA is driven up by OBP. Bautista’s OBP is driven up by a lack of protection in his lineup. Why pitch to Bautista when there are 8 other guys on that team that are borderline replacement level batters. Bautista has been intentionally walked 21 times so far this year. So just for fun sake I’ll pretend Granderson is now Bautista…simply pretend and add the 21 IBBs to Grandys 78 Walks you get 100 plus 140 hits is 240 times on base in 616 PAs which makes his OBP go up to ~.390 from .374. Oh wait this MVP isn’t a team thing…….
Also, fielding shouldn’t really be put into the MVP because DHs are eligible. Plus the metrics used to measure fielding are kind of a null point because it’s an inexact science. Which is why WAR is meaningless in the discussion too.
most valuable hitter now?
Explain to me the fairest way to evaluate fielding then and then explain to me the DHs who’ve won. Then go ahead and tell me how a pitcher can win when he can’t even get a W, the writers favorite counting stat without an offense that scores runs. Then go ahead and tell me how hitting isn’t the most important part of the MVP. I don’t remember the last time a defensive specialist was MVP.
– a UZR – DRS – rPM composite, regressed in a 3 or 4 year sample
– voters are dumb
– that’s a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher
– hitting is the most important part of the player’s performance, but that doesn’t take anything away from the value of defense. runs created and runs saved and of equal value to a team. players simply have more opportunities to create them than save them, so how a player hits becomes more important
Fairest way to evaluate fielding you ask. I thought it was clear that Gold Gloves are the true indication of how well a player did fielding. (if you can’t sense the sarcasm about Gold Gloves then you need to re-read.)
“Explain to me the fairest way to evaluate fielding then and then explain to me the DHs who’ve won.”
It’s impossible to explain the “DHs” that have won because a DH has only ever won the MVP once. By and large, voters tend to shy away from giving the MVP to a DH. I remember the 2005 season, David Ortiz was considered a good bet (I think about the closest a DH has come to winning in my lifetime) and the only time it’s ever happened, after looking at it, was a completely moronic situation (Looking at the stat boards for 1979 when Baylor won, there are countless better options). Personally, I think a DH should be even less likely to win than an MVP than a pitcher.
“I don’t remember the last time a defensive specialist was MVP. ”
A big part of Dustin Pedroia’s appeal in 2008 was his defense, likewise Hamilton’s defense at a premium position gave him a very clear edge over Cabrera last year. Heck, defensive value is a big reason Cabrera will probably never win an MVP.
Defense doesn’t add “value?” And just because something isn’t perfect we should ignore it?
“Being the most valuable player has a lot to do with your team.” That’s you opinion, but who is to decide what a relative win’s “value” is? Why is a win more valuable to the Yankees than to the Jays? I could pretty easily argue that Bautista has been more valuable to the Jays than Granderson has been to the Yankees, without Granderson the Yankees are still in the playoff, so I could make a case that Granderson was meaningless to the Yankees, as far as the teams final outcomes goes.
My loud mouth knows that wOBA doesn’t even count IBBs, and even if it did Bautista doesn’t just get walked because the batters behind him suck (Gonzalez was IBB’d 15 times with Youkilis and Ortiz batting behind him) he gets walked because he’s freaking awesome.
You are right.
One of the criteria for MVP voting is that team performance shall not influence the voting decision for any players. So playoffs or not playoffs, above .500 or not, the best overall player should get MVP award.
Bautista shines in pretty much all of the offensive categories. Playing amongst medicore lineup of Adam Lind, Juan Rivera, Corey Patterson and bunch of other bench players has obviously hurt his RBI and run scored.
As sad as it is, Bautista would have easily won it if he was with New York. Right now, I say MVP goes to Granderson because of the BIAS!
that is such faulty logic as to why Bautista has better numbers than Granderson,
sure you can say that bautista has a better OBP because he gets pitched around… fine.. but then how do you explain all the hits?
Granderson, doesnt’ get pitched around and gets something to hit.
So, that argument is complete fluff.
I say they should just go back abd look at all Cabreras 30000000 ft doubles and flyouts and infield popups that would have landed in the 2nd deck in Yankee Stadium or Rogers centre. Then look at all Grandys 200 ft homers that labded in the street behind Yankee stadium. Seriously Cabrera could bunt one out of that place its like a little leage field.
So true…that short porch is a joke.
This isn’t to say Granderson would be my pick for MVP (I’d probably peg him third), but he’s not exactly a product of Yankee Stadium. His home/road differential for home runs is only 2 (And that’s with a couple less games played on the road than home) and he’s actually hitting much better away from Yankee Stadium than he is at home.
Exactly. People who don’t like teh Yankees come up with excuses.
If they can make arguments for Yankee hitters getting a benefit at Yankee Stadium, why can’t we make an argument for Tigers pitchers (cough Verlander cough) getting a benefit at Comerica Park?
Look at tOPS+
Granderson
Away- 103
Home- 97
Verlander (for batters that hit against him of course)
Batters against Verlander in their home ballpark- 107
Batters against Verlander at Comerica- 92
In other words, Granderson hits better Away, and Verlander pitches better at home.
I’m not knocking Verlander, he’s cleary the Cy Young Winner.
“I’m not knocking Verlander, he’s cleary the Cy Young Winner.” Personally if I had a vote for AL Cy this year I would have a hard time choosing between CC and Verlander. Verlander has a lower SIERA and tERA, but CC has a lower FIP and xFIP; Verlander is the only guy in the AL who I can seriously say wouldn’t be a shock to go out and throw a no hitter on any given night, but CC is pitching just as well in a much tougher division. I really don’t know who I’d take this year.
Stop coming up with excuses, Granderson has hit 1 HR all year that would only go out at Yankee Stadium. His shortest HR of the year was 333 feet. And 15 of his homers were homers that would be out in all 30 MLB ballparks.
Here’s my order as of now (Maybe the bottom 5 I can switch some around but hte top of the list is where it matters most of course)
1- Ellsbury
2- Granderson
3- Verlander
4- Gonzalez
5- Bautista
6- Miggy
7- Cano
8- Pedroia
9- Sabathia
10- Weaver
Here’s the issue I have with your list although I’m sure that its very comparable to what will really happen..
BOS-3
YANKS-3
DET-2
TOR-1
LAA-1
you have multiple candidates from the same team, the very definition of the award suggests that players who have plenty of help are less valuable to their team, then lets say a player whos on a not so good team..
Realistically, take Bautista off the Jays and we’re looking up at the orioles, replace Granderson with an average replacement player and the Yanks probably still make the playoffs.
I’m not sure how to find this out, but I’m confident that one of the biggest WAR gaps from 1st to 2nd would have to be on the Jays..
Bautista is at 8.0 (ps, ellsbury is at 8.1 now, wow)
and the next closest Jay is Escobar at 4.4
(next closest Jay should be Romero, but WAR for pitchers isn’t that good)
Well I can certainly make changes to the bottom 5. I can take out possibly Sabathia and probably put in Ian Kinsler. Maybe even take out Cano or Pedroia and put Kinsler in. I have to relook but my top 5 is set pretty much.
I’m not critiquing your list, more critiquing how it usually is..
and you definitely can’t take out pedroia or cano, both deserve to be on the list.
I’m of the opinion that it doesn’t matter who else does what on their team, it should be a league wide thing. I wouldn’t have a problem if all 3 of the top 3 were from the same team if they really were the three best players in the league. That being said, I don’t understand how he can have Gonzalez (or Cano, or Miggy) so high and Bautista (or Pedroia) so low.
Do you vote solely on WAR? Because according to FanGraphs, CC leads the AL in WAR for pitchers and you don’t hear CC’s name mentioned even once in MVP voting (Not that I have a problem with that either).
Again I am more of a fan, as I said, voting for contenders before great players. Everyone has different voting styles. Some people never vote pitchers. I remember Pedro in his MVP type year in 99 was left off of 2 or 3 ballots.
No, I wouldn’t use just WAR (though I think it would be a good starting point). I would probably make a top 5-10 based on WAR and then look at other numbers or circumstances and make changes to that list based on those. Ellsbury’s UZR for exmple would be something I would also take into consideration, do I really think he’s a 15+ UZR guy, maybe take a three year average UZR for the guys in my top 10 and replace their season UZRs with that, and some other things along those lines.
I wonder if Dollars from Top Down is sorted exactly as WAR is listed
If we do it by Top Dollars
1- Ellsbury
2- Bautista
3- Pedroia
4- Granderson
5- Kinsler
6- Gonzalez
7- Alex Gordon
8- Sabathia
9- Verlander
10- Zobrist
Top Dollars?
I can’t post the link, but Dollar Value in Fangraphs. Click Value and there’s a category called Dollars which I think how much that player has been worth (in millions of course) that season.
Ah, gotcha. I know where you mean.
How the hell does CC lead all al pitchers in WAR?
On Fangraphs he does. On Baseball-Reference, Verlander does (that makes more sense to me).
from tango yesterday:
Did you know that while CC faced 13 more batters than Verlander, Verlander has thrown 361 more pitches? Verlander is basically weaving through traffic throwing 4.1 pitcher per batter, while CC is staying in his lane throwing 3.6, and they are both getting to the finish line at the same time.
They both have similar number of Ks, identical number of walks, similar number of extra base hits allowed. The major difference is that the Yankees have allowed FIFTY more singles than the Tigers have, when CC and Verlander on the mound. And of all the pitcher’s stats that have the least to do with the pitcher himself, singles allowed is close to the top.
tango adds..
Of the 50 additional singles that CC has given up, 49 of them have been to the left side of the infield. We are unsure if this is a coincidence or not. Reigning gold glove winner Derek Jeter has declined comment.
Hahaha
Awesome
Top 5
Cabrera
Verlander
Martinez
Avila
And the big potato
…. Get sum
“I’m not sure how to find this out, but I’m confident that one of the biggest WAR gaps from 1st to 2nd would have to be on the Jays..”
This is pretty easy to do at Fangraphs. On the top bar, click in teams. Once that loads, you can click “individual teams” and once that loads, there should be a drop down menu wth which you can select a given team.
Your third highest WAR is actually Morrow, followed by Romero followed by (Time for a good cry)…Brett Lawrie. That’s right, friend, your team’s third highest position player WAR is a guy with under 150 plate appearances on the year.
You have my most heartfelt condolences.
considering we started the year with corey patterson, juan rivera as starters that pretty much seems about right?
plus it just proves Brett Lawrie’s awesomeness.
Explanation?
1- Ellsbury, because I think he’s the Most Valuable Player
2- Ganderson, because I think he’s the 2nd most Valuable Player
etc etc
In all honesty, I am more of a fan of first giving it to someone on a playoff team or contending team and to a positon player as opposed to a pitcher. I don’t want to go into a long story right now but if you want to ask why I voted Verlander ahead of Gonzalez, it’s because Verlander means more to the Tigers than Gonzalez does to the Red Sox. If the Red Sox had about the same record as they do today and if Ells was having an average season, Gonzo is my clear MVP choice then. That’s just my opinion. You and everyone else can feel free to have totally different ballots, and I’d be fine with that.
On to the Cy Young ballot (I noticed last year they did 5 instead of 3)
My top 5
1- Verlander
2- Weaver
3- Sabathia
4- Shields
5- Wilson
ROY
1- Hellickson
2- Ogando (if he qualifies) According to FanGraphs he does but I don’t think that’s accurate because he came up to the Rangers in June 2010. He didn’t pitch 50 innings, but he spent more than 45 days on the active roster obviously
If Ogando don’t count
2- Michael Pineda
3- Ivan Nova
I think Trumbo’s season is very overrated. Reddick (who I like a lot even though he’s on the Sox) has a WAR that’s equal to Trumbo’s and he has played in almost 2x less games. Just a .295 OBP and .256 AVG for Trumbo. He has a good amount of homers though which is what might attract voters.
I’d put Reddick higher actually if he played in more games. Too bad Drew didn’t get hurt at the beginning of the year lol
Is Hellickson even qualified?
Yes, only 36 IP last year. They called him up in early August, sent him down again in mid August, and he came back September.
Pretty sure he qualifies, unless he was on the Rays roster for 45 days.
Yeah, the playoff team thing is a fairly common opinion (one I happen to disagree with, but that’s alright). I was thinking more about the value of the guys actually on playoff teams versus where they are on your list. I understand not basing it solely on WAR (I wouldn’t if I were to make a list either) but with a 7.0 WAR guy (pedroia) below a bunch of guys in the 4.5-6.0 WAR range (Cano, Miggy, Gonza) you had me curious.
I had forgotten Pedroia’s WAR was so high actually. Maybe I’d have to relook at my bottom 5
Its cause theyre arent very many good 2b.
8 2B have a 3.0 WAR or higher. The top 5 2B are all in the AL.
Pedroia isn’t so good because other 2nd basemen are so bad, his wOBA would be 4th best among all AL 1st baseman.
I’m reasonably sure Reddick’s not qualified. He’s been up and down a few times the last few years.
You can sort for just rookies on Fangraphs and Reddick shows up there. I’m not 100% certain that that means he still has rookie status, but I think he actually still does.
not that i expect you’re using their numbers, but i think if you regress the UZR data as i wiiiish fangraphs would, granderson edges out ellsbury in total value
and both still trail bautista
Thanks for the info.
Again I do think it sucks for Bautista that he’s on the “wrong team”, but that should not penalize players who are on good teams. Again there is a difference between Best Player and Most Valuable Player.
Unlike the Cy Young and ROY votes which specificaly state goes to the player with the best stats.
I remember David Price finished 2nd in Cy Young voting last year, CC was 3rd.
CC was on 7 ballots for MVP, David Price was on zero.
Do I think Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball? The answer to that is yes. If the award specifically meant it that way, I’d vote him first probably.
yea i don’t have a dog in the “what does valuable MEAN” fight, so i’m fine with that rationale. i think the “who is the awesomest” discussion is a lot more fun
the UZR data is seriously flawed on 1 year basis, especially in outfields that have a lot of fly balls, and players who can play multiple positions.
Fangraphs WAR for pitchers is pretty close to a laughing stock though.
i have a feeling a lot of people would agree with you there. i wouldn’t go that far. i think two things are true: (1) it has very serious, significant limitations that you have to account for when you use it; and (2) it’s the best crude tool we have for estimating a pitchers total value
that says more about the state of the statistical science than the merits of fangraphs WAR specifically, i think. but the conclusion is the same: you can’t just look at the leaderboards and be done with it
What I’ve found is that usually, top tier pitchers get their nod on that top of the WAR board…
top 5 right now are doc, cc, JV,kershaw and lee..
hard to argue that all 5 haven’t been the best pitchers so far this season..
Where I find the true inconsistencies is in the middle of the pack pitchers…
I mean Romero at a 2.4 WAR to Morrow at a 3.0 War is pretty ridiculous.
yea, see my comment below to mainesox. the two of you are already familiar with the stats mentioned i think, but my ordering might make clearer why WAR is both useful and very limited
there’s a reason the top guys stand out and the middle of the pack doesn’t: the best of the best simply control the things a pitcher alone controls (K, BB, HR) better than anyone else. that’s all FIP measures, and fWAR is based on FIP
the rest of the league presents the challenge of what to give a pitcher credit for, how much to give him, and how to be sure. field f/x is going to unlock a lot of this hopefully, but for now we just keep on keepin’ on with the crude tools we have
i don’t think taking something as sloppy as ERA and adjusting it with something as sloppy as TZL (poor man’s UZR) represents any improvement whatsoever on the problems of fWAR. what we’re trying to achieve is less complications, less sloppiness – not more
WORDS WORDS WORDS I MISS PEDRO
You’re going to cry, aren’t you?
Johnny Damon called Henderson Alvarez a ‘young pedro’
its probably impossible to be as good as pedro, however, if someone compared the way I wore my hat to pedro I’d be pretty excited. So that must of been pretty cool for Henderson (providing someone translated what Damon said to spanish for him)
Honestly I never even look at pitchers WAR. I couldn’t even tell you who has the best WAR among pitchers, or what their WAR is, or even what a “good” WAR for a pitcher is. Not necessarily because I think Fangraphs pitcher’s WAR is a joke (though it may be, I really don’t know and haven’t thought about it) but because there are so many other, better, more in-depth ways to evaluate pitchers.
good rules of thumb IMO when assessing a pitcher’s seasons(s):
1. FIP – good, raw, simple. missing lots of information, but at least it isn’t clouded by information you can’t account for
2. xFIP – this will adjust FIP by assuming the pitcher gave up the league average rate of HRs instead of the rate he actually has given them up. at least some of HR rates are influenced by luck, so it’s good to check career rates against single-year rates (regression would be useful here too)
3. FIP- – like ERA+, this will adjust FIP for league and park factors, and scale it to league average (100). good contextual information
4. SIERA – this adds in a lot of the important information that FIP intentionally omits. specifically, it accounts for batted ball types: groundballs, flyballs, line drives. SIERA is very complex, but very useful
5. tERA – same thing as SIERA, but derived differently
6. BABIP AND LD% – most people know what BABIP is and why it’s important by now, but it’s important not to just assume that a high BABIP is unlucky and a low one is lucky. checking what kind of contact a pitcher has given up can tell you whether he’s been lucky or crappy
there’s a couple more, but already you see why just checking WAR could never suffice. figuring out the value of a pitcher’s performance is both fun and terribly complex
Yep, that’s most of the stuff I look at. I really never look at WAR for pitchers though, it’s not even intentional, I just never really have.
mixed feelings. i think it’s useful for quick-and-dirty assessments with multiple seasons worth of data for example, but i always have to add-in that it should only be used when you understand it’s limitations and can support it with the other data
most of the people that use WAR don’t, though, and kind of depend on it so that they don’t have to learn about or understand anything else. that’s a major downside – and most of the reason people hate it, i think
Yep, and the sad thing is it doesn’t take 5 minutes worth of reading before you can find where the people who actually developed it tell you that it isn’t perfect, and shouldn’t be used as such.
If I may ask, why do you like BABIP if you like FIP? 2 completely different stats. I mean people like you like FIP to see how a pitcher does without his defense and can tell more than ERA (I respectfully disagree but to each his own)
But on the other hand, defense is important in regards to BABIP. If you like FIP, it doesn’t make sense to like BABIP for a pitcher.
Unless I am missing something and if I am, fill me in.
“people like you like FIP to see how a pitcher does without his defense”
yes!
“and can tell more than ERA”
no! ERA probably gives you more information, it’s just a lot of information you can’t easily make sense of. it’s all jumbled up. but just like i don’t completely ignore the existence of batting average or
OBP because wOBA is infinitely better, i don’t completely ignore ERA. it’s just way down the list of things i’d check
as i said in the post you’re replying to, FIP is “missing lots of information, but isn’t clouded by information you can’t account for”
i don’t believe a pitcher is responsible only for Ks, BBs, and HRs; i just believe those are the things that he-and-not-his defense controls (as opposed to he-and-his-defense together). that’s really important. it’s also important to see what kind of contact he’s giving up, though. this is why looking at batted ball types is so important when using BABIP. it’s also why SIERA and tERA are nifty
it’s the same reason we can’t call a 20% HR/FB ratio “bad luck” if we check and see every homerun was hit 500 feet. a .400 BABIP is deserved if you’re giving up 30% line drives and if you’re doing that, you’re not having a great year – even if your FIP is shiny
Considering in RF, Ichiro is the worst defensive RF and NICK SWISHER of all is the best defensive RF.
Listen, I’ve seen Swisher play, he is not an above average fielder, he is average at best. He makes bonehead moves with his diving catching attemps only to see thos lead to more doubles instead of trapping them for singles. He has made good running catches and once in a blue moon he makes a nice diving play.
I know Joe Girardi isn’t a Great manager (I’ll say good but not great) but many times throughout the year he has subsituted Chris Dickerson in for Swisher in late innings for defense. That must tell you whta he thinks of Swisher defensively.
you can and imo should hedge your bets (especially with single-season samples) on UZR by checking DRS and rPM on the same line. they’re from the fielding bible and often give you perspective on whether or not UZR is being wonky or a player seems to actually be playing awesome/awesomely bad
the day fangraphs either incorporates that data into an overall defensive rating or at least regresses UZR (so that it’s a weighted average of the past 3-4 seasons rather than whatever the UZR happens to be that season) will be a huge step forward
Pitchers shouldn’t be allowe to be MVP. Their “MVP” is the cy-young. Position players don’t have an award to have for themselves which should be the MVP award.
They do actually. The Hank Aaron award recognizes the best hitter. Isn’t that mainstream, though.
Who in their rightful mind besides the players that receive them and besides Hank Aaron himself, even cares about the Hank Aaron award?
It’s all about the 4 main awards- MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year. If a pitcher wins both MVP and Cy Young, not a single position player wins anything important. As I said that’s why I consider position players easily first.
MVP race should be between 3 candidates IMO.
In no specific order.
– Curtis Granderson
– Jacoby Ellsbury
– Jose Bautista
Thats it. Cy Young is easily Verlander!
I ordered the author of this post a thesaurus so he no longer has to write “opines”…