There's one day of regular season games remaining on the schedule and it's going to be a good one. The Rays and Red Sox are tied with 90-71 records and the Braves and Cardinals are tied with 89-72 records. Two of those clubs will make the playoffs as Wild Card teams and the others will be watching the postseason along with the rest of us. Here are today's links…
- The Red Sox could still acquire a starting pitcher for a possible play-in game with the Rays (it would take place Thursday). But as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com explains, the Red Sox would have to complete a deal by tomorrow night for MLB to allow it.
- Matt Kemp (NL MVP), Craig Kimbrel (NL Rookie of the Year), Jose Bautista (AL MVP), Justin Verlander (AL Cy Young) and Dustin Ackley (AL Rookie of the Year) would all win major awards this offseason if ESPN.com's Keith Law had the only vote for each honor.
- Ronny Cedeno told MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that he hopes the Pirates exercise his $3MM option instead of buying him out for $200K. The Pirates don't have an obvious internal candidate to replace Cedeno and his .251/.299/.339 batting line.
- Tom Tango wonders if adding a salary cap would actually help small-market teams like the Pirates. If MLB implemented a salary cap, rich teams could spend more on player development and research.
- The owners are concerned that realigning MLB into two 30-team leagues would limit their ability to market interleague play, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. No one is talking about expansion given the current issues troubling many teams, but at some point adding two clubs could be a way for owners to ensure that each league has an even number of teams.
If MLB breaks into two 30 team leagues, I bet some of us can get starting jobs!
And those who can’t crack the lineup would probably be shoo-ins for front office positions.
Will I be allowed to throw chairs, turn over desks and insult older scouts?
The Mets are looking for a guy like you.
just turn the people of wyoming into a team. you might have enough, you may have to draft some from montana.
Play Bucholz tomorrow, start Lester Thursday.
PROFIT!
Ackley? Interesting. He hasn’t played enough games imo, though. Someone like Hosmer, Hellickson, or Pineda are more deserving. Trumbo as well to an extent, but his lack of OBP skills really deters me from him (6 IBB with only 25 walks total in 573 PA…really?).
Ackley should be an exciting player to watch in the coming years though.
I think you can make good cases for Hosmer, Hellickson, or Pineda, but, in the article, Law’s argument for Ackley is that he’s hit well in a pitcher’s park while playing good defense at a premium position, which has some merit.
Agree to a point, though that’s more an argument that Ackley has the best future of any 2011 rookie. Rookie of the Year is more about single-season achievement, and by that measure I think it should go to Hellickson.
When Ackley does lose though, he’ll have a right to be upset about that he had to hang around hitting the snot out of the ball in Tacoma for three months before the Mariners decided he was an upgrade to their pathetic offense.
Indeed. It’s a shame that he didn’t get called up sooner, especially since the Mariners seemingly had something to play for earlier in the season. I mean, did they really feel like they had better options at 2B at the beginning of the year? He had respectable numbers last year in the minors as well (particularly in the OBP department).
Pineda 3.77 ERA, Nova 3.70, Hellickson 2.95
Pineda 9-10, Nova 16-4, Hellickson 13-10
Any of these would be well ahead of DUSTIN ACKLEY…
Hosmer I feel has not been up enough to warrant ROY, Trumbo is a smasher and not well rounded enough yet…
I’d go with a pitcher well before either of Homser / Tumbo…but in my book those 2 are still ahead of DUSTIN ACKLEY…
Nova keeps going to the back of my mind for some reason. Possibly that I heard his name so much in the off-season I just assumed he wasn’t a rookie. Also, Hosmer has been up for 129 games this season. He came up in early May if I remember right.
I don’t really have a problem with anyone voting for Bautista. He has had an amazing year.
I still think it sucked that Hamilton won it over Cabrera last year because 1.)His team won their division and 2.)His home ballpark.
The one thing that stood out as well, Hamilton missed the last month of the season. I still think Cabrera should have won the MVP.
Hellickson has a 2.95 ERA in the AL East and he’s been here the entire year… How do you not give him the AL ROY
How’s this for entertaining, Kimbrel has more strikeouts than Hellickson bahaha.
My mind immediately went to Hosmer for AL ROY, seems like a lot of pretty even options and opinions. Good upcoming race.
People still care what Keith Law says?
Sorry, Bautista is not the AL MVP any way you slice it. I like the rest of the article, though.
Explain how?
The dude leads the majors in HRs, Walks, OBP, Slugging percentage. Last time a player did that was Barry Bonds in 2001.
If Jose Bautista doesn’t deserve it then nobody does.
Nice to see you’re following your fangraphs page, Mr. Bats.
In the end bro, Toronto is a market no one in the American media watches. Unless they are playing the Yanks or Red Sox. At the end of the day the media are Boston and New York driven. Ells or Grandy will get MVP with a little Verlander love for good messures.
media seems to pay plenty of attention to Toronto when they are throwing un founded stealing signs and steroid claims this way.
Its funny.. where are all the PED ELLSBURY OMG, SHIELDS IS ON HGH crowd
He could get it, but I think Curtis Granderson will win. The guy does have 135 runs scored, even though runs have been deemed useless in the post- moneyball era.
He could get it, but I think Curtis Granderson will win. The guy does have 135 runs scored, even though runs have been deemed useless in the post- moneyball era.
That’s funny. I thought it was Curtis Granderson’s to lose.
First of all great season for Joey Bats, but how do you take him over Ellsbury? I have been a huge ells supporter from day 1 and even through last season, but i never expected this!
With the way he has played down the stretch with clutch hits he has carried the team. The sox would already be out of the playoffs if not for him! I say ells for MVP. Congrats on an amazing year!
Bautista has the best OPS, slugging, tied for OBP, most walks, highest wOBA, wRC+, and if you want to use clutch stats: 8.19 WPA which also leads the league.
I wouldn’t be disappointed if Ellsbury was named the MVP as he has been terrific but Bautista has been a monster this year.
Also, “down the stretch with clutch hits he has carried the team”. Is that really something you want to use? They have what, like 6 or 7 wins in all of September?
EDIT: What the hell? How could I leave out the fact he leads the league in HR.
his splits are badass too
home wOBA: .443
away wOBA: .442
low leverage: .410
medium leverage: .468
high leverage: .503
Yup, he’s been a beast in clutch situations.
while i’m there, may as well contrast ellsbury’s
home wOBA: .407
away wOBA: .396
low leverage: .386
medium leverage: .408
high leverage: .441
ellsbury bases empty: .385 (bautista .438)
ellsbury men on base: .423 (bautista .449)
ellsbury men in scoring: .448 (bautista .400)
Without ells they wouldnt have the 6-7 wins, only if he could pitch!
I havent looked closely at his stats and i dont look at sabermeterics much (no clue what WPA is) but it seems to me that Bautistas stats have declined in the second half while ells has improved.
WPA is Win Probability Added. instead of giving each walk, double, HR etc. equal value like we normally do, WPA accounts for the context in which the player performed and approximates how much each thing he did increased or decreased the odds of his team winning each game
in an example from FG that coincidentally includes ellsbury:
In game 4
of the 2007 World Series, the WE (Win Expectancy – odds of winning) for the Rockies started out at 50%. When Jacoby Ellsbury doubled off Aaron Cook in the very first at-bat in
the game, the Rockies WE declined to 44.2%. The difference or WPA was
.058 wins (5.8%). Ellsbury was credited +.058 wins and Aaron Cook
credited with -.058 wins.
so think of ellsbury’s big homer in NY the other night. his performance in that game registered +.244 WPA (huge). he’s accumulated 5.75 over the course of the year, which is very good – 6th in all of baseball, in fact. but bautista leads everybody with a crazy 8.19
If you are going to bring up WPA for clutch stats why not bring up fangraphs Clutch stat too?
Ellsbury: 1.7
Bautista: 0.91
yes because the voting committee is totally going to look at that
no, probably not, but if they look at ANY OTHER friggin stat in the book they’ll vote for ellsbury. i don’t see your point
Any stat beside obp, and slugging you mean? Lol
any stat BESIDES all the other important stats, you homer
Tsk tsk. If I were you, I would be nice…you need that good karma for the next 2 days..
Go give homeless guy 20 bucks!
can he pitch?
ha.
Personally I don’t think they would look at it, but if you’re going on the assumption that the voting committee will look at WPA its not a stretch that they would look at Clutch too. It wasn’t meant to be about what the voting committee does or does not look at though. I just don’t see how WPA is being used to describe being clutch.
Rays_Sox… if those Sox happen to be Red you’re in for a helluva a day today…
If you are going to bring up WPA for clutch stats why not bring up fangraphs Clutch stat too?
Ellsbury: 1.7
Bautista: 0.91
how many blue jays games have you watched, though? not taking a shot at you, just pointing out that bautista has ‘won’ at least as many games for them as ellsbury has for boston. i don’t know why he should be penalized because his team isn’t in contention – especially if the sox miss the playoffs
you got me, I actually have only watched 1 or two for the season, Also, for what its worth, I have Bautista on 2 fantasy teams, and it seems his stats have been on decline since th All Star break, but i could be wrong though. Either way, I know it usually has a huge bearing on the voters as to what is done down the stretch and on teams in contention.
Wait a minute…you have him on a fantasy team? That changes everything
he did have a much better first half than he did second half there is no denying that..
pre ASG- 1.170 OPS
Post ASG- .904 OPS
So yes there has a been a decline, primarily in his slugging. However to decline to a 904 OPS just shows you how awesome he was in the first half…
that being said, the first half was a long time ago so I wouldnt be totally shocked if people put it in the back of their minds.
Not denying Ellsbury didnt have a great year, he did and he has helped Red Sox a lot. Jose Bautista has miraculously improved on the monster season he had last year while people predicted regression. The dude has been nothing but amazing since the begining of the season.
It’s sad that most voters will be influenced with the which team makes post season argument.
Leading the majors in walks, HRs and OPS is no easy feat. It has not been done in a decade. (last by Bonds in 2001).
those are pretty much the only stats that he beats ellsbury been in. i’m sorry, but even before you account for sabermetrics, ellsbury wins this. after sabermetrics, it’s just not close
Lol.. This is moronic… He only beats him in the 2 most important offensive stats.
Can you find his stats from the 1st half of the season compared the second? Just wondering
ellsbury 1st half: .360 wOBA (quite good)
ellsbury 2nd half: .442 wOBA (quite amazing)
bautista 1st half: .470 wOBA (god-mode)
bautista 2nd half: .416 wOBA (beast-mode)
that definitely helps your case for ellsbury a bit
wRC+, adjusted for league and park factors (100 is average)
ellsbury 1st half: 122
ellsbury 2nd half: 179
bautista 1st half: 202
bautista 2nd half: 165
there’s also the fact that ellsbury plays a defensive position and plays it very well. a .400 wOBA from a centerfielder is much more valuable than one from a right fielder
there’s no way to downplay jacoby’s year. it’s simply a comparison of two awesome seasons
also another way I look at it, and I assume so do the voters, but to me it seems to carry a certain weight that ells is on a contending team and has been more valuable to his team than bautista has been to his simply because the red sox games have had more importance to them as far as standings and playoffs.
Obviously Bautista has killed it this yr, but the MVP award shouldnt IMO be decided on just offensive stats, thats why they have the silver slugger award, but a determination of who has been more valuable to its respective team.
i don’t look at it that way, but the voters absolutely do. i don’t think there’s any chance of bautista winning the award this year
HAHA, God Mode!
I agree with KLaw on everything. Bautista deserves the MVP but it’s sad that many voters will be influence by which team makes the playoff reasoning…..which isn’t even a criteria.
I WANT to agree with Law on a lot of things, but dude comes off as so full of himself that it’s kinda hard.
Too many of the voters seem to think that most valuable means the player has to be on a winning team. I’ve seen some writers argue that Kemp isn’t the NL MVP because they say the Dodgers would be a 4th place team rather than a 3rd place team without him. The thing is many of the MVP winners and canidates are in similar positions, it’s just the difference between 1st and 2nd place. The voters have to realize one player can’t make a team and rather then penalize those players they should at least be viewed on the same ground as canidates from postseason teams.
team has nothing to do with this. ellsbury has been the better player. take off the rose-colored glasses.
with that said, it will SWAY the OPINIONS of the VOTERS, but ellsbury has been more valuable.
We have to remember that Granderson and his .25/60’s BA will likely win. I personally hope Jacoby wins, but totally agree with Joey Bats. Granderson as MVP is equatable to Hamilton last year…… oh wait, Hamilton was injured, not 0 for 4 every game the last month +.
Ackley AL ROY???? Seriously? BA .277, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 39 runs scored…what in the world makes him a canditate?
Ivan Nova’s stats: ERA 3.70 (in AL East), 16-4, 98 K / 57 BB
Come on now….Ackley is an ok player. Without Nova either AJ/Colon/Garcia/Hughes would have been Yankees #2 guy this year….
Hellickson >>>> Nova anyway.
I agree, based on innings and K rate. Also, Hellickson has faced the Red Sox and Yankees four times each, while Nova has somehow only faced the Red Sox once and obviously hasn’t had to face the Yankee lineup.
I mean, just seeing a rookie with a 2.95 ERA in that division was enough for me to fall out of my chair. I hadn’t realized until yesterday how good Hellickson had been. What a year.
The fact that he’s thrown over 180 innings is impressive as well. This is especially impressive considering he had never thrown over 152 in his 6 minor league seasons, and that was in ’08. His other seasons he never broke 120.
I mean, just seeing a rookie with a 2.95 ERA in that division was enough for me to fall out of my chair. I hadn’t realized until yesterday how good Hellickson had been. What a year.
Orlando/Monterrey Mexico/Hawaii or P Rico as choice for new Teams. and it’s got to be geographical meaning we get one each division and a Midwest,Southeast and California ones to.
Jesus Montero/Ryan L. the catcher from Red Sox’s/Matt Moore as choice for AL Rookie of the Year.
NL Vance Worley or so on.
?? Montero from the Yankees? The guy who has played for about a month up here?
Montero, Lavarnway, and Moore have each been up a month or less. Are you serious?
Orlando/Monterrey Mexico/Hawaii or P Rico as choice for new Teams. and it’s got to be geographical meaning we get one each division and a Midwest,Southeast and California ones to.
Jesus Montero/Ryan L. the catcher from Red Sox’s/Matt Moore as choice for AL Rookie of the Year.
NL Vance Worley or so on.
Personally I think Ellsbury will end up winning the AL MVP.. hes more than deservant…
however I’m curious, to those who say, Bautista shouldnt be voted because his team didnt make the playoffs (moronic btw) are you then content on granderson or Verlander winning it if the sox end up not making the playoffs? ? ?
I really hope that in some way thats not directed towards me, that wasnt my argument. Obviously there is a great case to me made for both players, and possibly should be a split MVP. I think granderson has a good case as well, but i prefer JBats or Ells, and I would have to say no to pitchers getting the MVP.
You can say its moronic if you like but to the voters and a vast majority of fans it does mean more when you produce when it matters. I could make an arguement that Bautista has declined the second half and thus didnt lead his team to more wins (playing devils advocate) while ells didnt decline but infact produced more when his team needed him the most making him more valuable.
I would prefer to have Ells win the award but like i said earlier I have been a huge supporter of his since day 1 and im a bit of a sox homer. If Bautista wins he is also well deserving.
Not directed to you in any way…
I’m ok with ells winning it… I was just curious how ppl would vote if the sox didn’t make the playoffs
I’m not sure it’s fair to essentially detract from Bautista by saying “Bautista was great, but it hurts him that his team didn’t win more” and then follow it up by promoting Ellsbury with “Ellsbury was great in September and it’s not his fault his team didn’t win more.”
I really hope that in some way thats not directed towards me, that wasnt my argument. Obviously there is a great case to me made for both players, and possibly should be a split MVP. I think granderson has a good case as well, but i prefer JBats or Ells, and I would have to say no to pitchers getting the MVP.
You can say its moronic if you like but to the voters and a vast majority of fans it does mean more when you produce when it matters. I could make an arguement that Bautista has declined the second half and thus didnt lead his team to more wins (playing devils advocate) while ells didnt decline but infact produced more when his team needed him the most making him more valuable.
I would prefer to have Ells win the award but like i said earlier I have been a huge supporter of his since day 1 and im a bit of a sox homer. If Bautista wins he is also well deserving.
If the Red Sox fail to make the playoffs Ellsbury takes a huge hit along with any other sox player.
Hellickson should win Rookie award with Nova right behind him.
NL MVP: Braun AL MVP: Ellsbury
NL Cy Young: Kershaw AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL RoY: Kimbrel AL RoY: Hellickson
Doc should win cy.
Didn`t Kershaw win the triple crown like Verlander…..
Doc should win cy.
Jayson Stark from espn had his 2011 awards going to:
NL MVP: Braun AL MVP: Verlander
NL Cy Young: Kershaw AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL RoY: Kimbrel AL RoY: Hellickson
NL MoY: Gibson AL MoY: Maddon
Don`t shoot the messenger I seen it and thought I would share it.
Pineda is the AL ROY. Despite a losing record and an ERA that is only slightly below league average he sports a fantastic K rate (9.1 K/9) and WHIP (1.099) in 173 innings. The only starter in the AL with a better K rate was Brandon Morrow and Pineda’s WHIP ranks 8th in the league.
Pineda has pitched against weaker competition, and plays in a better pitcher’s park. Hellickson plays in front of a stronger defense, but that .79 difference in ERA is just too much to overlook. Pineda’s better K rate may foretell a higher ceiling, but Hellickson had the better season.