There’s said to be progress in collective bargaining talks, as the owners and union strive to reach agreement — or, at least, avoid a work stoppage — with the current CBA set to expire at midnight. As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports, the league’s ownership has not scheduled a lockout vote, though the owners are on standby in the event that one is required, or if there’s a deal to be confirmed.

Here’s the latest:

• A deal is close and could be finalized tonight, Rosenthal tweets. The meeting has adjourned with “handshakes all around,” MLB.com’s Richard Justice adds on Twitter.
• The sides are “close” to hammering out a deal on the luxury tax system, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. That has been seen as one major obstacle. Given the overall movement, whether or not a final agreement is reached tonight, there’s now little chance of a lockout, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times tweets.

Earlier Updates

• It’s possible, of course, that the sides could simply decide to maintain the status quo while talks wrap up. If they haven’t seen eye to eye on everything, but see a path to a deal, that may well come to pass. In that event, the offseason business of baseball could carry on while the final issues are resolved. A lockout vote would be viewed as a drastic measure — “only if owners felt they were at point of no return” — at this point, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
• We’re waiting to learn more on how things could be shaking out, and it seems there’s still quite a bit of variability in what form the qualifying offer system will take. One possibility, Rosenthal says, is that wealthy teams (i.e., those that pay into the revenue-sharing system) could sacrifice some draft position (say, five spots) if they sign a QO-declining free agent. Meanwhile, low-revenue organizations could sign such free agents without penalty. (Twitter links: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5.)
• Also under consideration, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), are changes to the international signing system. While it seems that a draft is off the table at this point, it’s possible that teams could face a hard cap on total bonus outlays. Presumably, there would also be some increase in the total spending allotment, though that remains unclear.

10:45pm: Rosenthal tweets a quote from someone connected to the CBA talks: “There is very positive dialogue right now. More meetings to come tonight.” 

NOV. 29, 7:04pm: Following Olney’s report that the competitive balance tax is the “last big hurdle” to be cleared, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links) that the owners have proposed forfeiting draft picks as the penalty for going over the luxury tax limit, though the MLBPA is sensitive “sensitive to any adjustment that would cause [the] threshold to act as [a] de facto salary cap.” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that there’s some growing optimism about a deal being reached before the 12:01am ET deadline on Thursday.

NOV. 28, 7:07pm: Despite the apparent concession from the ownership side on the international draft, the “desired effect” of “mov[ing] talks forward” has yet to occur, Rosenthal adds on Twitter.

6:16pm: The owners won’t insist that an international draft be a part of the next CBA, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). There is still disagreement regarding modification to the luxury tax system, he adds; it’s not clear whether the sides are simply haggling over where to set limits or, instead, considering larger changes. Presently, teams are hit with a tax if their payroll exceeds $189MM in a given year, which functions to restrain spending on major league rosters.

5:21pm: Teams may not participate in the upcoming Winter Meetings, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Club officials, he says, have been given the understanding that they won’t take part in the meetings if the ongoing collective bargaining talks don’t make “sufficient progress.”

This report represents the latest indication that there’s a real possibility of a disruption in the offseason due to the stalled CBA talks. The current CBA expires on December 1, and prior reporting suggests that the league’s owners may consider a lockout depending upon how talks unfold. It’s worth noting that Olney had previously downplayed the potential for problems.

While potential disruption to the 2017 season is still months away from being a concern, a labor stand-off would surely have a significant impact on the way in which the winter signings and trades unfold. Many of the biggest moves take place at baseball’s annual Winter Meetings, which are scheduled this year for December 5-8.

All told, there are several notable upcoming dates of importance, each of which will pressure the sides to come to an agreement. While the league and the MLB Player’s Association seem to be dug in on some matters, there’s also plenty of incentive for both to avoid a work stoppage and find common ground. That’s all the more true given that the issues reportedly still open for negotiation appear to represent a relatively small slice of the game’s growing financial pie.

Among the other topics still under discussion, the possibility of an international draft — which the league has pushed — has drawn strong pushback from the union. Indeed, several Latin American big leaguers reportedly made in-person appearances during talks today, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports in a series of tweets (all of which can be seen here). While prior reports indicated that the league side was willing to scrap the qualifying offer system in exchange for the ability to institute a draft, the union appears to be taking a hard line on that particular issue.

Both Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred and players’ union executive director Tony Clark expressed optimism last month about reaching a new collective bargaining agreement prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the current CBA. No deal between the league and the union has come since, but the industry isn’t worried about a shutdown, reports Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. The lack of concern is largely because the next CBA is unlikely to include radical departures from the current one. Instead, the expectation is that the two sides are mostly looking to tweak what’s already in place.

Here’s more from Kepner:

• Shortening the regular season has garnered consideration during negotiations, but the schedule will remain at 162 games in the next agreement. In order to ease the players’ workload, the league and the union could agree to lengthen the season from 183 days to 187, per Kepner.
• Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier this month that expanding rosters from 25 to 26 players was a possibility, and that’s likely to come to fruition, according to Kepner. Moreover, 40-man rosters in September will unsurprisingly go by the wayside in favor of a 28- or 29-man limit.
• The $189MM luxury-tax threshold is set to increase, though it’s unknown how much it’ll rise. That change will have a positive effect on big-spending teams that have been reluctant to exceed the $189MM figure. Bumping the number up from $189MM isn’t ideal for teams that have lesser budgets, of course, but Kepner argues that it’s not necessarily cause for despair. Since the current CBA took effect after the 2011 season, 21 of the majors’ 30 teams have made the playoffs, Kepner points out.
• Owners continue pushing for the implementation of an international draft, but the MLBPA is “deeply skeptical,” Kepner writes. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported in October that a 10-round proposal was on the table for March 2018.

One key element of the current collective bargaining talks is whether there will be any change to the number of players who can be carried on a roster. Negotiations are entering their final phases with the current agreement set to expire on the first of December.

There has reportedly already been consideration of going from 25 to 26 players on the active roster. (Here’s our story from two weeks back; the reporting came via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.) And that concept is still under discussion even as the time nears for the league and the MLB player’s association to wrap up talks, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

There’s little question that the 26th man would be a boon to the player’s union, though MLBTR contributor Ryan Spilborghs has argued that it would be beneficial for teams as well. Balancing the cost of thirty new MLB salaries, sources tell Rosenthal, could come in part from new limitations on the size of the active roster in September.

Currently, of course, organizations can utilize anyone on their 40-man roster during the month of September, as Spilborghs also recently discussed. The new rule under consideration might limit clubs to 28 players for any given game during the final full month of the season, with additional provisions allowing that group to be modified — but not every single day.

It’s easy to see the merit in paring back the strange rule that significantly changes the game beginning on September 1. There likely wouldn’t be much of an impact on the transactional world, and it’s hard to imagine any fans taking issue. Adding a 26th man for the full season, though, might shake things up a bit. It would potentially reduce the exposure of players to serious injury, make it easier for clubs to employ specialized players at the major league level, and make the Rule 5 draft a more feasible means of snaring young talent.