MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for this offseason. The list below includes all unsigned ranked free agents.
Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2010-11 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics. Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation. If a Type A free agent turns down an arbitration offer and signs a Major League deal elsewhere the losing team gets two draft picks, one of them coming from the new team. If a Type B free agent turns down an arbitration offer and signs a Major League deal elsewhere the losing team gets one draft pick in the supplemental round, and it doesn't come from the new team. Keep in mind that an arbitration offer is necessary for draft pick compensation.
The numbers beside the players' names represent their rankings. If teams sign more than one Type A free agent, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.
Type A
- Albert Pujols, Cardinals – 95.200
- Prince Fielder, Brewers – 91.200
- C.J. Wilson, Rangers – 90.988
- David Ortiz, Red Sox – 86.000
- Ryan Madson, Phillies – 82.948
- Heath Bell, Padres – 81.437
- Carlos Beltran, Giants – 80.879 (cannot be offered arbitration)
- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – 80.292
- Ramon Hernandez, Reds – 78.947
- Roy Oswalt, Phillies – 78.350
- Michael Cuddyer, Twins – 77.671
- Josh Willingham, Athletics – 77.534
- Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays – 74.725
- Matt Capps, Twins – 73.788
- Darren Oliver, Rangers – 72.880
- Jose Reyes, Mets – 77.249
- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – 76.720
- Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers – 75.671
- Octavio Dotel, Cardinals – 70.922
- Takashi Saito, Brewers – 69.627
- Francisco Cordero, Reds – 68.486
Type B
- Aramis Ramirez, Cubs – 71.978
- Mark Ellis, Rockies – 71.429
- Rod Barajas, Dodgers – 70.489
- Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles – 70.000
- Alex Gonzalez, Braves – 69.312
- Mark Buehrle, White Sox – 68.508
- Jason Kubel, Twins – 68.219
- Frank Francisco, Blue Jays – 68.211
- Raul Ibanez, Phillies – 68.022
- Ryan Doumit, Pirates – 67.857
- Bruce Chen, Royals – 67.248
- Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers – 66.422
- Chris Snyder, Pirates – 65.414
- Brad Lidge, Phillies – 64.477
- David DeJesus, Athletics – 64.384
- Derrek Lee, Pirates – 64.000
- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers – 63.288
- Edwin Jackson, Cardinals – 63.154
- Ryan Ludwick, Pirates – 62.637
- Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks – 62.500
- Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers – 61.905
- Kerry Wood, Cubs – 61.764
- Freddy Garcia, Yankees – 61.240
- Juan Pierre, White Sox – 61.233
- Jon Rauch, Blue Jays – 61.083
- Dan Wheeler, Red Sox – 60.905
- Cody Ross, Giants – 60.879
- Aaron Harang, Padres – 60.294
- Wilson Betemit, Tigers – 59.740
- Jose Molina, Blue Jays – 59.586
- Carlos Pena, Cubs – 59.200
- Pat Burrell, Giants – 59.121
- Arthur Rhodes, Cardinals – 59.019
- Shawn Camp, Blue Jays – 57.680
- Jason Varitek, Red Sox – 57.143
- Rafael Furcal, Cardinals – 56.085
- Clint Barmes, Astros – 55.556
Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Kelly Johnson and Joel Zumaya.
Why does Guerrero rank as Type B with a score of 70.000, but Takashi Saito and Francisco Cordero rank as Type As with scores of 69.627 and 68.486, respectively?
Because Elias is a tard. And also because Free Agents are ranked by their fielding position.
(double post)
The cutoff varies by grouping of position. Obviously that value was lower for pitchers.
Different category of player. There’s no cutoff number to be a type A or B player. You need a Elias score that ranks in the top 20% (or somethig like that) of their certain category of position.
Uh… lol? Kelly Johnson is a Type A free agent now? That changes things for the Blue Jays.
That changes EVERYTHING!
A wizard did it.
not that they wouldnt have offered him arb before but now if he leaves we get 2 comp picks!? sweet…this probably means teams will be reluctant to give up the picks… i see him coming back on a 1 year deal.
yeah he may accept arb because of that too.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Phillies do not re-sign Lidge, Ibanez, Rollins, and Oswalt, and the all sign elsewhere, the Phils could actually have 5 first round picks (their own, the picks of the teams that sign Rollins and Oswalt, and supplemental 1st round picks because of losing Lidge and Ibanez).
Do I have that correct???
They would have to all turn down arb offers, not happening.
Who the hell would give a first round pick for Ibanez? LOL
Edit: Oh wait, I just double-checked the list. Ibanez and Lidge are Type B Free Agents… You don’t get first round picks for them, you get supplemental round picks for them.
Looking at it that way, if the Blue Jays don’t re-sign anybody and they all sign elsewhere, the Jays get three first round picks (their own, compensation for Beede, and compensation for Johnson) and five supplemental picks (Camp, Francisco, Rauch, Molina, Johnson) for eight picks in the first round overall.
I thought Type A was you get that team’s 1st round pick if they are not 1 of the first 15, and a sandwich pick between rounds 1 & 2?
Basically you’re right. The only wrinkle comes into play if the signing team signs multiple type A free agents – then you could get a 2nd, 3rd and so on….
There is no way the Phils offer arb to Oswalt, Lidge, or Ibanez.
I don’t think so. Since they’re paying their buyout, they won’t be offering them arbitration, so they won’t get compensation if they sign elsewhere.
You only get draft picks if you offer arbitration to the player, he declines, and signs elsewhere. Hard to imagine all three of those things working out for everyone you listed, besides maybe Rollins.
if the rays get two draft picks out of kyle farnsworth i will slap their mothers. damn you friedman
Tampa’s fielding certainly plays a role in improving their relievers Elias ranking. With the new CBA, I doubt they remain this aggressive in turning over their bullpen.
Tampa’s fielding certainly plays a role in improving their relievers Elias ranking. With the new CBA, I doubt they remain this aggressive in turning over their bullpen.
Do the rankings base itself on a lifetime achievement, or a single season? New to the system.
past 2 seasons.
Last two seasons.
Last 2 seasons.
Methinks that Edwin Jackson’s value has shot up quite a bit now that he’s a Type B and won’t cost teams a first-rounder
Does the order of names in the lists mean anything? For instance, Jose Reyes is listed 20th on this list, however, his rank based on the number next to his name would put him 16th. I’m assuming 16th is the relevent position here, right?
EDIT: By the way, thanks for posting this. You guys do a fantastic job.
I hope the Jays offer arb to all of those players and that they all turn it down. Hopefully they have a handshake agreement in place with Rauch because otherwise it is hard to imagine how he would turn down arbitration.
I think it would be pretty great if they managed to get a supp. pick out of Molina.
handshake agreement is the only way that goes down. im not sure he is wearing a major league uniform come next april. would love to get a first rounder for johnson
Why do people always neglect the fact that if a FA accepts arb. offer, they are on a NON-GUARANTEED CONTRACT. This influences their decision.
AA says “look Rauch, we’re offering arb., but there is no guarantee that you will make the team… In fact you will likely be cut.”
Rauch has zero security if he accepts, but he can get a guaranteed FA contract.
This is incorrect. If a player is offered arbitration and ACCEPTS he is then GUARANTEED a contract from the offering club. That’s why clubs have to make the decision on offering it. If it was non-guaranteed like you claim there would be no reason not to.
Does D’Arnaud figure to be ready this year from NH? If not, it would still be pretty great for Molina to accept arbitration or resign, though I imagine he’d find more money elsewhere.
I guess it depends on how one values Molina’s contributions. His payroll impact is not much of an issue. So does his mentoring of JP and his handling of staff outweigh a supp. pick + a different veteran back up?
I would be inclined to think the latter was more valuable/desirable, but then again I am not in the club house.
Dotel getting type A status means it’s even better that the Jays traded him. No WAY anybody gives up a first rounder for a 39 year old righty specialist
true….but…it gives team who has Dotel more control over him….for example….Rays most likely to keep Farnsworth another year because of Type A status.
Allowed Jays to control Frasor for several years because he would only leave for a 2 year guaranteed contract.
Dotel has a team option anyway…
The ongoing labor talks have no effect to this, right? There’s talk about them eliminating free agent compensation, and assuming that gets implemented, that wouldn’t go into effect until next year’s class… right?
I’m pretty sure that’s right. IIRC, the 2007 draft was governed by the rules laid out in the CBA that expired after the 2006 season (e.g. two sandwich rounds, Type C free agents). Not 100% sure, though.
I dont think takashi saito can be offered arbitration
Predictions: Type A
Albert Pujols, Cardinals – 95.200: Cards Prince Fielder, Brewers – 91.200: DodgersC.J. Wilson, Rangers – 90.988: RangersDavid Ortiz, Red Sox – 86.000: Blue JaysRyan Madson, Phillies – 82.948: PhilliesHeath Bell, Padres – 81.437: PadresCarlos Beltran, Giants – 80.879 (cannot be offered arbitration): Red SoxJonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – 80.292: Red SoxRamon Hernandez, Reds – 78.947: PiratesRoy Oswalt, Phillies – 78.350: NationalsMichael Cuddyer, Twins – 77.671: TigersJosh Willingham, Athletics – 77.534: BravesKelly Johnson, Blue Jays – 74.725: Blue JaysMatt Capps, Twins – 73.788: TwinsDarren Oliver, Rangers – 72.880: RangersJose Reyes, Mets – 77.249: NationalsJimmy Rollins, Phillies – 76.720: GiantsFrancisco Rodriguez, Brewers – 75.671: MarlinsOctavio Dotel, Cardinals – 70.922: CardsTakashi Saito, Brewers – 69.627: Japan!Francisco Cordero, Reds – 68.486: Reds
Why is Coco Crisp UNRANKED?
Why is Coco Crisp UNRANKED?
Cause he stinks? Just a guess though
Cause he stinks? Just a guess though
helpful list
nah, they traded for him so that they have him in for 2012. arizona would have offered arbitration so without the trade they’d have had to overbid a bit or possibly pass if he was a type A. KJ has been one of AA’s guys for awhile